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Pirates - Magic Numbers

Updated after game 1 of the double header today.

Central W L PCT GB
St. Louis 89 54 .622 -
Pittsburgh 87 56 .608 2.0
Chi Cubs 82 61 .573 7.0


Wild Card Teams W L PCT WCGB
Pittsburgh 87 56 .608 +5.0
Chi Cubs 82 61 .573 -
San Francisco 76 68 .528 6.5
Washington 73 70 .510 9.0


Pirates games remaining: 19

Magic Numers:
Central Division:
St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: 162 + 1 - 89 - 56 = 18
St. Louis vs Chicago: 162 + 1 - 89 - 61 = 13
Pittsburgh vs St. Louis: 162 + 1 - 87 - 54 = 22
Chicago vs St. Louis: 162 + 1 - 82 - 54 = 27

Wild Card:
Pittsburgh vs Chicago: 162 + 1 - 87 - 61 = 15
Pittsburgh vs San Francisco: 162 + 1 - 87 - 68 = 8
Pittsburgh vs Washington: 162 + 1 - 87 - 70 = 6
Chicago vs Pittsburgh: 162 + 1 - 82 - 56 = 25
Chicago vs San Francisco: 162 + 1 - 82 - 68 = 13
Chicago vs Washington: 162 + 1 - 82 - 70 = 11

Magic # Definition:
Number of wins for Team A or Losses for team B that would lead to clinching a division title or wild card berth.

Team A vs Team B

Magic# = G + 1 - Wa - Lb

G = Number of games in season - 162 in MLB
Wa = Wins for Team A
Lb = Losses for Team B

Comments

  • Updated 09/17/2015@2:12PM.

    Rough series against the Cubs so far. Hopefully they can even out the series by winning the game right now (it's 4-3 Pirates in the Top of the 4th).

    NL Central	W	L	PCT	GB
    St. Louis 91 54 0.628 -
    Pittsburgh 87 58 0.6 4
    Chi Cubs 84 61 0.579 7

    Wild Card Teams	W	L	PCT	WCGB
    Pittsburgh 87 58 0.6 +3
    Chi Cubs 84 61 0.579 -
    San Francisco 77 69 0.527 7.5
    Washington 75 70 0.517 9

    Pirates games remaining: 17

    Magic Numbers:
    Division:
    St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 91 - 58 = 14
    St. Louis vs Chicago: 163 - 91 - 61 = 11
    Pittsburgh vs St. Louis: 163 - 87 - 54 = 22
    Chicago vs St. Louis: 163 - 84 - 54 = 25

    Wild Card:
    Pittsburgh vs Chicago: 163 - 87 - 61 = 15
    Pittsburgh vs San Francisco: 163 - 87 - 69 = 7
    Pittsburgh vs Washington: 163 - 87 - 70 = 6
    Chicago vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 84 - 58 = 21
    Chicago vs San Francisco: 163 - 84 - 69 = 10
    Chicago vs Washington: 163 - 84 - 70 = 9

    Magic # Definition:
    Number of wins for Team A or Losses for team B that would lead to clinching a division title or wild card berth.

    Team A vs Team B

    Magic# = 163 - Wa - Lb

    Wa = Wins for Team A
    Lb = Losses for Team B

  • edited September 2015

    Updated 09/23/2015@3:23PM.

    Rebounded nicely against the Dodgers and so far against the Rockies. Hopefully they can keep it going for the remaining two games against the Rockies, then take care of business against the Cubs and Cards. They can still win the division, but it will be very tough (they almost have to sweep the Cards).


    Central W L PCT GB
    x-St. Louis 95 56 .629 -
    Pittsburgh 91 60 .603 4.0
    Chi Cubs 89 62 .589 6.0


    Wild Card Teams W L PCT WCGB
    Pittsburgh 91 60 .603 +2.0
    Chi Cubs 89 62 .589 -
    San Francisco 79 71 .527 9.5
    Washington 78 72 .520 10.5

    Pirates games remaining: 11


    Magic Numers:
    Central Division:
    St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 95 - 60 = 8
    St. Louis vs Chicago: 163 - 95 - 62 = 6
    Pittsburgh vs St. Louis: 163 - 91 - 56 = 16
    Chicago vs St. Louis: 163 - 89 - 56 = 18


    Wild Card:
    Pittsburgh vs Chicago: 163 - 91 - 62 = 10
    Pittsburgh vs San Francisco: 163 - 91 - 71 = 1 (magic number for Pirates to clinch playoffs)
    Pittsburgh vs Washington: 163 - 91 - 72 = 0 (can't catch Pirates)
    Chicago vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 89 - 60 = 14
    Chicago vs San Francisco: 163 - 89 - 71 = 3 (magic number for Cubs to clinch playoffs)
    Chicago vs Washington: 163 - 89 - 72 = 2

    Magic # Definition = Number of wins for Team A or Losses for team B that would lead to clinching a division title or wild card berth.

    Team A vs Team B

    Magic# = 163 - Wa - Lb

    Wa = Wins for Team A

    Lb = Losses for Team B

  • Updated 09/25/2015@6:08PM.

    That's one game against the Cubs in the books (and 7 wins in a row for the Bucs). Hopefully the Cards lose against the Brewers and we get just a little bit closer to the division title. It really is a shame that 3 out of the 4 best records in baseball play in the same division. One of these teams is going to get screwed and miss the *real* playoffs. Actually, really two of them are because one is going to lose the play-in game, and the other is going to get to play the best team in baseball for a 7 game series short their best pitcher. Rough all around. Winning the division is important. Still going to be very tough, but if the Pirates keep winning and the Brewers somehow manage to split their current series with the Cards, the Pirates would control their own destiny for the division title (there maybe a tiebreaker issue though).


    Central W L PCT GB
    x-St. Louis 97 56 .634 -
    x-Pittsburgh 94 60 .610 3.5
    Chi Cubs 89 64 .582 8.0


    Wild Card Teams W L PCT WCGB
    x-Pittsburgh 94 60 .610 +4.5
    Chi Cubs 89 64 .582 -
    San Francisco 79 73 .520 9.5
    Washington 78 74 .513 10.5 (Mathematically Eliminated)

    Pirates games remaining: 8


    Magic Numers:
    Central Division:
    St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 97 - 60 = 6
    St. Louis vs Chicago: 163 - 97 - 64 = 2
    Pittsburgh vs St. Louis: 163 - 94 - 56 = 13
    Chicago vs St. Louis: 163 - 89 - 56 = 18


    Wild Card:
    Pittsburgh vs Chicago: 163 - 94 - 64 = 5
    Pittsburgh vs San Francisco: 163 - 94 - 73 = 0 (can't catch Pirates)
    Pittsburgh vs Washington: 163 - 94 - 74 = 0 (can't catch Pirates)
    Chicago vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 89 - 60 = 14
    Chicago vs San Francisco: 163 - 89 - 73 = 1 (magic number for Cubs to clinch playoffs)
    Chicago vs Washington: 163 - 89 - 74 = 0 (can't catch Cubs)

    Magic # Definition = Number of wins for Team A or Losses for team B that would lead to clinching a division title or wild card berth.

    Team A vs Team B

    Magic# = 163 - Wa - Lb

    Wa = Wins for Team A

    Lb = Losses for Team B

  • edited September 2015

    Updated 09/28/2015@1:45PM.

    Well the Brewers took care of their end and the Pirates were looking great until they ran into the Arrieta buzz saw last night. He's a scary pitcher to face. All the more reason to win the division. The Pirates are now 3 games back with 6 remaining including the next three against the Cards. They realistically need a sweep of the Cards to have any sort of chance, then the Cards need to lose one more than the Pirates to avoid the tie-breaker game. Would be nice to get the Cubs minus Arriatta to open the division series though. My gut feeling is that Arrieta wins the WC game no matter who he faces, but that the Cubs won't have enough pitching to win a full 7 game series against either the Cards or the Pirates. With SF and Washington both being eliminated, we now know that the Cards, Pirates, and Cubs will be the three teams in the playoffs, and the only question that remains is whether the wild card game will be in Pittsburgh or St. Louis and that will all depend on this series with the Cards.

    Central		W	L	PCT	GB
    x-St. Louis 98 58 .628 -
    x-Pittsburgh 95 61 .609 3.0
    w-Chi Cubs 90 65 .581 7.5

    Wild Card Teams	W	L	PCT	WCGB
    x - Pittsburgh 95 61 .609 +4.5
    w - Chi Cubs 90 65 .581 -
    San Francisco 81 74 .523 9.0

    Pirates games remaining: 6

    Magic Numers:
    Central Division:

    St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 98 - 61 = 4
    St. Louis vs Chicago: 163 - 98 - 65 = 0 (Chicago can't catch St. Louis)
    Pittsburgh vs St. Louis: 163 - 95 - 58 = 10

    	Wild Card:
    Pittsburgh vs Chicago: 163 - 95 - 65 = 3
    Pittsburgh vs San Francisco: 163 - 95 - 74 = < 0 (San Francisco can't catch Pittsburgh)
    Chicago vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 90 - 61 = 12
    Chicago vs San Francisco: 163 - 90 - 74 = < 0 (San Francisco can't catch Chicago)

    Magic # Definition = Number of wins for Team A or Losses for team B that would lead to clinching a division title or wild card berth.

    Team A vs Team B

    Magic# = 163 - Wa - Lb

    Wa = Wins for Team A

    Lb = Losses for Team B

  • edited October 2015

    Updated 10/01/2015@4:31PM.

    After last night's loss, the only remaining question will be where the Pirates play Arrieta and the Cubs. Not looking good here as the Pirates have been looking terrible in their losses and the Cubs are looking strong. Hopefully, the Pirates can pull it together and get the wins that they need to at least ensure that they are playing in Pittsburgh. I still don't like their chances to beat Arrieta no matter the location though.

    Central		W	L	PCT	GB
    z-St. Louis 100 59 .629 -
    w-Pittsburgh 96 63 .604 4.0
    w-Chi Cubs 94 65 .591 6.0

    Wild Card Teams	W	L	PCT	WCGB
    w - Pittsburgh 96 63 .604 +2.0
    w - Chi Cubs 94 65 .591 -

    Pirates games remaining: 3 (Cincinnati)

    Cubs games remaining: 3 (Milwaukee)

    Magic Numers:
    Central Division:

    St. Louis vs Pittsburgh: 163 - 100 - 63 = 0 (Pittsburgh can't catch St. Louis)
    St. Louis vs Chicago: 163 - 100 - 65 = < 0 (Chicago can't catch St. Louis)


    Wild Card:
    Pittsburgh vs Chicago: 163 - 96 - 65 = 2
    Chicago vs Pittsburgh: 162 - 94 - 63 = 5 (Cubs Own Tie breaker)

    Magic # Definition = Number of wins for Team A or Losses for team B that would lead to clinching a division title or wild card berth.

    Team A vs Team B

    Magic# = 163 - Wa - Lb

    Wa = Wins for Team A

    Lb = Losses for Team B

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