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Author Topic: O-v-e-r-r-a-t-e-d  (Read 7531 times)
jonzr
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« on: Apr 23, 2015 at 11:28 »

According to the WWL - a few of the relevant ones:

Most overrated NFL draft prospects

Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

While most left the combine in awe of Waynes' speed, the discussion among PFF analysts centered on the fact that his 20-yard shuttle (4.39 seconds) was slower than his 40 time (4.31), a rare feat we couldn't recall seeing. That poor change-of-direction ability was evident on tape, and is a problem at a position where change of direction is vital.

Moreover, for someone who possessed the recovery speed to not have to worry about getting beat deep, Waynes was fairly average breaking on intermediate routes and had only three pass breakups on 59 targets. His mark for yards per coverage snap allowed was just about average, at 1.04, but he was exposed against the most talented passing team the Spartans faced all year (Oregon). In that game in Week 2, he yielded 113 yards on seven targets, including a touchdown.

Bud Dupree, LB, Kentucky

After one of the most impressive performances in the history of the combine and a productive senior season, it is easy to see why Dupree has become a consensus first-rounder among draft analysts. However, when we dug deeper into his stats and film, there were some red flags that popped up.

The most meaningful one is that only three of his 36 pressures came against tackles with positive pass-blocking grades for the season. While he posted an overall respectable pass-rushing productivity mark of 9.8, that number dropped to 7.1 against SEC competition. A third of those pressures against SEC competition came versus Missouri's right tackle, Taylor Chappell, who had the second-worst pass-blocking grade in the country.

It's also worth noting that despite being 6-foot-4, 269 pounds, Dupree didn't generate a single pressure off of a bull rush last season. Those stats paint the picture of a player who feasted on weak competition and then put up impressive workout numbers, rather than a complete pass-rusher.

Shaq Thompson, S/LB, Washington

People have been in love with Thompson's athleticism since he was a five-star recruit coming out of high school in Sacramento. However, all the athleticism in the world won't make up for poor instincts as a linebacker, and Thompson has yet to show he can make the necessary reads for the position. His 7.3 run-stop percentage was 41st among 58 draft-eligible starting inside linebackers, and he was an overall ineffective player against the run, outside of forcing and recovering fumbles.

Thompson's skill set translates better to safety, as he was smooth in coverage and has nickelback experience, but it's hard to feel comfortable picking a player early for a position you've never seen him play.

P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State

After watching all of Williams' plays this season, our analysts agreed that the most accurate description of him is "inconsistent." Inconsistency at cornerback in the NFL is synonymous with getting benched, as defensive coordinators won't put up with the types of highs and lows Williams experienced last season.

While the Florida State corner was aggressive and productive around the line of scrimmage, he gave up tons of ground on intermediate and deep routes when receivers got a hint of initial space. Williams actually graded out negatively in coverage, in no small part due to his silly habit of not wrapping up receivers after the catch. He missed 11 tackles in coverage last season, and his ratio of a miss on every 6.2 attempts was 79th out of 101 starters in the class.
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« Reply #1 on: Apr 23, 2015 at 11:29 »

Have to admit, I'd bought into the hype on Trae, Bud and Shaq.  Tossed in PJ just b/c he's a CB, hadn't heard of him.  Who knows though, these guys could be anywhere from busts to Perennial Pro Bowlers.
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« Reply #2 on: Apr 23, 2015 at 19:09 »

Haven't done much looking into Shaq.  But Trae IMO was overrated.  His bowl game versus Baylor, fuck, burned like toast.  Some great straight-line speed, meaning maybe he translates to an Ike-type CB.  Which ain't bad.  Except Ike is bigger, and faster.  So he's the poor man's Ike Taylor.  Give me Marcus Peters, Byron Jones, and Kevin Johnson before Trae.  There, I've said it.  I think he'a a cusp R1/2 talent below Darqueze Dennard.

I've mocked Dupree to us, but he's more an upside guy, and that is rarely what we draft.  He has measurables, but some bad tape as well.  I'd take him at 22 with reservations, but think he goes higher, to my relief.  Not as good a fit as Fowler or Beasley, but as good as Gregory.  I'd be happier with a Woodley-sized run-killer like Owa or Preston Smith, esp. in a trade-back.  Dupree is over-hyped, but could grow into it.

PJ Williams is overrated, and I don't know why.  He's not in my top 10, and probably not 20.  Pass. 

This all confirms some gut calls, that I arrived at without my usual Rain Man-ish immersion into the prospects.  Whew!

Also, Shane Ray is now a R2 prospect if he wasn't before.  Toothpick legs, overrated stats (Jarbust) and a toe that's sidelining him for 5 months?  Fuck you.
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« Reply #3 on: Apr 24, 2015 at 11:16 »

At 22 it would be nice to see them get a CB who can contribute some this season with an eye towards starting either later in the year or next season.  We won't have to wait long now.  Hope to see at least 4 defensive picks out of the first 5.
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« Reply #4 on: Yesterday at 17:55 »

Hard to say how the 8 picks will play, in terms of offense/defense.  Everyone wants D.  OLB and CB needs are obvious.  But they've brought in top WRs, a fair number of TEs and OG, and could add a RB. 

I think they double-dip with CBs, and it might make sense to look at guys (Row, Carter) who can potentially play CB and FS.  Since S is going to be a big experiment this year.  It would also not surprise me if they took 2 OLB, one developmental.

1. CB
2. OLB
3. CB/FS
4. OG
5. RB
6. OLB
6c. TE
7. WR

Seems like this could be the general contour.

Possible fits:

1. CB Marcus Peters, Wash; CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest
2. OLB Preston Smith, Miss. St.; OLB Nate Orchard, Utah
3. CB/FS Alex Carter; CB/FS Doran Grant, Ohio St.
4. OG Mitch Morse, Missouri; OT/OG Ty Sambrailo, Colo. St.
5. RB Matt Jones, Florida; RB Karlos Williams, Fl. State (Vince's brother)
6. OLB Kyle Emmanuel, ND State; OLB Zach Wagenmann, Montana
6c. TE Wes Saxton, W. Alabama
7. WR Antwan Goodley, Baylor
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