Adrian Peterson Story: Godsend?

[Finnegans Wake]

Don Banks of SI reports that Peterson reinjured his collarbone against the Boise St. Broncos, which might result in a team like the Browns passing on him in favor of, oh, say, Beardy Quim.  That would be sweet enough in itself, but say AP lasted until 1.11...  Gets drafted by the Bills...  Steelers have marshawn Lynch sitting at 1.15 and phones ringing with offers to trade into our spot...

Cat bird seat.

[Hercules50]

I thought the same thing -- the RBs could do a tumble. hell, Stephen Jackson fell all the way to what, 24? Could easily happen. I even wonder if, given this injury news....even AP falls to 1.15. This is very unlikely -- don't jump on me, now -- but IF this injury story builds up a bit, perhaps more is learned, AP could fall out of the top 10 and if Buffalo passes on him....

Anway, this brings up the issue of the Browns. My main worries are that they will land either JaMarcus Russell or Calvin Johnson. I hope they end up with Brady Quinn or Joe Thomas, both of whom are going to be busts, joining a long line of guys at their positions picked in the top of the draft who can't hack it in the bigs. Thomas is Robert Gallery the 2nd.  

[JackSplat]

Cleveland drafting the next Rick Mirer, ermm i mean next Joe Montana would be like Manna from Heaven.

Lynch still on the board at 1-14 would be Cat bird seat indeed.  Colbert would be Ma Bell for the next 30 minutes.

[JackSplat]

they will land either JaMarcus Russell

my God, that would be even better than the stains drafting quinn.

[aj_law]

Steelers have marshawn Lynch sitting at 1.15 and phones ringing with offers to trade into our spot...

Cat bird seat.

*sigh*

[Hercules50]

they will land either JaMarcus Russell

my God, that would be even better than the stains drafting quinn.

Really? Just curious -- why do you think Russell will be a bust?

I think he's going to be a great player -- his athleticism is game-changing.

Quinn, on the other hand, will be a quality backup for some team five years hence.

[Finnegans Wake]

Cleveland drafting the next Rick Mirer, ermm i mean next Joe Montana would be like Manna from Heaven.

Funny you mentioned Mirer.  Flipped to 212 to see what was on and the had top 10 draft busts.  As soona s they mentioned Mirer the first thing I thought of was Quinn.  Not just for the Our Lady connection, either.

[Finnegans Wake]

With JaMark, I think it depends who takes him.  If the Raiders, there's a bust potential due to everything about that team just being awful.  Same theory with the Browns, though you have to consider he might a) tear a knee up on that crappy field, and then b) get a staph like every other Browneye.

If he goes to the Lions, he might actually have a real nice start, like Vince Young.  Same with the Bucs.  Hard to believe Gruden would bench Miss Chris Simms, but ya never know.

Don't think he falls beyond that.

[ajv148]

I guess I'm kind of in the minority here.  I think Jamarcus has a higher ceiling than Quinn, but I also think Quinn is the safer pick.  I think Quinn will have a decent-to very good career.

[msdmnr2002]

If he goes to the Lions, he might actually have a real nice start, like Vince Young. Same with the Bucs. Hard to believe Gruden would bench Miss Chris Simms, but ya never know.

Don't think he falls beyond that.

Mike and Mike had a quickie mock this morning based on the Raiders taking Calvin Johnson #1.  Had Joe Thomas going to Detroit, Brownies taking Quinn instead (home state + Crennell/Weiss connection), Tampa going defense with #4.  Arizona obviously won't take a QB, so In their scenario Russell falls at least to #6, where the Dolphins might trade up.

[JackSplat]

Really? Just curious -- why do you think Russell will be a bust?

i was meaning more so if drafted by the Browns or any shitty organization for that matter.  And by shitty i mean couldnt draft their way out of the basement for the last 10 years.  also, going along the averages that 1 out of every 2 QBs taken in the first round turn out to be busts.


http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...terbacks/070425

 

[Hercules50]

Thanks, Jack.

Yeah, I can buy that reasoning. Russell has just sick physical skills, but there are some franchises at the top of the draft this year (like every year) that are flat-out lost, and he could end up hurt by that.

I think he's good enough that he'll overcome even being a Raider and will be a star. They do have a defense, after all. They could ease him into it.

And he'd give us headaches playing for the Browns -- though on the plus side, I wouldn't rank QB among Cleveland's top 5 needs.

I kind of agree on Quinn being a safer pick, in that, I don't think he'll be awful. But I think he'll be on a David Carr-to-Eli Manning continuum, which is to say, a bottom-third NFL starter or a very good backup (eventually). Or good enough to succeed on a kick-ass team, which he is likely to lack in the early years (and forever if he's a Brown).

Other players I personally think will bust:

Joe Thomas -- I don't buy the book on him that he's balanced. he's a pass blocker but won't be much of an NFL run blocker. Levi Brown will be the better pro, I have a feeling.

Hall -- Reminds me of Chad Scott.  A physical guy, a smart player, with pretty good physical skills. And yet -- can't really cover. Hall got burned in college on several occassions.

Jamaal Anderson -- I'm just not buying the hype based on one year of production.

[aj_law]

I guess I'm kind of in the minority here.  I think Jamarcus has a higher ceiling than Quinn, but I also think Quinn is the safer pick.  I think Quinn will have a decent-to very good career.

Well, I'm right there with ya.

I also think that Russell has a higher bust factor than Quinn.  It's not that I think Quinn is a better prospect per se, it's just that Quinn appears to be...more driven...is I guess how I would put it.

Russell just seems to be in it for the Benjamins.  People make the comparison between Mirer and Quinn, but I think a more apt analogy is Russell with Akili Smith.  Sick athlete; all the physical tools; cannon for an arm, but his technique and work ethic leave a lot to be desired.  He just strikes me as a guy that isn't willing (isn't going) to do what it takes to take his game to the next level.  He's gotten by on freakish athletic ability to this point and once he signs a deal that guarantees him 8 digits, he's just going to cruise.  From everything I've read, he just seems to have that personality.  As soon as he sees that his athleticism will only get him so far and he actually has to work at the game, he'll eventually fade away.

As down as I was on Vince Young last year, I at least thought that he would have a so-so, Kordell-like career.  IMO, Russell won't even get to that point.

Quinn, OTOH, doesn't have the physical abilities that Russell possesses, but he's no slouch either.  Prototypical size for an NFL QB, but what he does have is crazy good football smarts; he's a hard worker and he's shown the willingness to learn.  In and of itself, that all usually adds up to a decent NFL career.  I think his biggest problem will be learning to deal with the speed of the pro game and handling pressure.  If he can do that, he'll be OK.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Stanton, Beck or even Edwards end up being better than either of these two.  To put it another way, I don't think that the talent gap between Russell/Quinn and Beck/Stanton/Edwards is big enough to justify taking one of the first two in R1 instead of a R2 or R3 pick on one of the latter guys.

[Finnegans Wake]

If he goes to the Lions, he might actually have a real nice start, like Vince Young. Same with the Bucs. Hard to believe Gruden would bench Miss Chris Simms, but ya never know.

Don't think he falls beyond that.

Mike and Mike had a quickie mock this morning based on the Raiders taking Calvin Johnson #1.  Had Joe Thomas going to Detroit, Brownies taking Quinn instead (home state + Crennell/Weiss connection), Tampa going defense with #4.  Arizona obviously won't take a QB, so In their scenario Russell falls at least to #6, where the Dolphins might trade up.

I'd flip that.  I think I had in my one-round mock Beardy Quinine being the one to drop; not as far as Ben, and certainly not as far as Aaron "Zits" Rodgers, but maybe on down the top 10.  

But the point is, it's a mixed blessing for either guy to go too early.  Better money, worse situations.

[busboy36]

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if Stanton, Beck or even Edwards end up being better than either of these two.  To put it another way, I don't think that the talent gap between Russell/Quinn and Beck/Stanton/Edwards is big enough to justify taking one of the first two in R1 instead of a R2 or R3 pick on one of the latter guys.

I totally agree with that.  I think if Stanton is available in the 3rd, we should take him and do what Atlanta did with Matt Schaub.  Plus, Ben has never made it through a full 16 game season healthy.  I think it would be worth the investment.

[Y2Joyce]

It's all a huge smokescreen.