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Author Topic: Sporting News Says Steelers Easiest Sept Schedule  (Read 2203 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #10 on: Oct 12, 2007 at 14:55 »

Again, msdmnr, great breakdown.  I think I feel about the same way about each phase.  Apparently, so does this site (estimating 10.9 wins, so, 11).  They have the likelihood of each team making the playoffs, and its chances of winning a particular playoff berth.  Pats, naturally, faves for the 1 spot; Colts have a slight edge over us for #2; we look good for the three spot; the Chargers get some love for the 4.  And IIRC the two WCs are favored to also wind up in the AFCS, with the Jags and Texans edging out the next best competitor, Balty.  

Would not surprise me, and I like our chances against a Texans team at home.  I can see Jax upsetting SD unless their return to form gels and they play like they did last year.  With Norv there, I'm not confident of it.  So I can see Jax (again) going to NE, and us going (again) to Indy.  

That leads to four interesting permutations, likeliest of which start with "and the Patriots meet" and end with "in the AFC Championship.  I think we could beat Dungy's boys, but it really looks like a 50/50 proposition.  

So, in other words, I think an AFCC appearance is actually not impossible.  The first Pats matchup this year will tell us a lot about ourselves...
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« Reply #11 on: Oct 12, 2007 at 15:22 »

Also, working with the FO playoff odds for the NFC, it shakes out thusly:

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Tampa Bay
4. Seattle
5. Washington
6. Arizona

This gets somewhat confusing... Arizona has a 60.5% chance of making the playoffs, while Washington has a 52.7% chance... yet Washington's odds of making the 5 seed are better than Arizona's.  OK.  The closest team on the outside looking in is the Giants, who have showed some improvement since the early going.

If this seeding holds, I would say Arizona could actually upset Tampa.  Tampa comes out high in all the computer models, but that running game is going to hurt them, now and later.  Washington at Seattle, I see as a repeat of 2005, when Washington lost to Seattle.  Zona at Dallas, have to think Dallas.  Seattle at Green Bay, I like the higher seed again.  Green Bay at Dallas would be an excellent game, and much like Steelers-Colts, I have no clear favorite here.  It's going to hurt the Pack if they don't have a running game by then, so I can see that and HFA tipping the scales to Jerry's girls.
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« Reply #12 on: Oct 12, 2007 at 15:25 »

Quote
It's going to hurt the Pack if they don't have a running game by then, so I can see that and HFA tipping the scales to Jerry's girls.
If that comes to pass, I hope Madden isn't doing the game.  "Heh, that Tony Romo is like a young Brett Favre.  Or is Brett Farve like an old Tony Romo?  HA!  BAM!  BOOM!  Pass the turducken."
« Last Edit: Oct 12, 2007 at 15:26 by jonzr » Logged

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« Reply #13 on: Oct 12, 2007 at 15:46 »

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Quote
It's going to hurt the Pack if they don't have a running game by then, so I can see that and HFA tipping the scales to Jerry's girls.

If that comes to pass, I hope Madden isn't doing the game.  "Heh, that Tony Romo is like a young Brett Favre.  Or is Brett Farve like an old Tony Romo?  HA!  BAM!  BOOM!  Pass the turducken."




I really like what Tony Romo brings to this team, I mean, here... here's a guy who throws for a lot of yardage and everyone talks about that, but look how he looks like a young Brett Favre in this play, the way he, y'know, plants his feet like this here, and you see how he's looking over here, and his eyes are looking here but he's really looking over here, that non-throwing hand is right there, and he sliiiides that left leg up when he's getting to throw because, you know, like Favre, he's a lot like Brett Favre was, or like Brett Favre still is apparently, because people were saying Favre should retire, and all this stuff like that, but you know, when you're a Brett Favre or a Tony Romo, you can't listen to that, you have to just go out there and play the game the way you're gonna play it...  OOOOooooohh, and Romo throws a bad ball that gets intercepted there, maybe, maybe I put the whammy on Tony comparing him to Brett Favre, but ya know, ya know Brett throws a lot of picks, too, and so that just comes with the territory.  At least neither of them's a goddamned *edit*.
« Last Edit: Oct 12, 2007 at 15:56 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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« Reply #14 on: Oct 12, 2007 at 16:39 »

LMAO.  Great Madden dialog.  I bet Frank TV steals that.
 
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« Reply #15 on: Oct 13, 2007 at 09:27 »

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Apparently, so does this site (estimating 10.9 wins, so, 11). They have the likelihood of each team making the playoffs, and its chances of winning a particular playoff berth.

I like the way they break down the % chance of winning each seed.  Gotta hate it for the Rams - chances of winning:

#1 seed - 0.0%
#2 - 0.0%
#3 - 0.0%
#4 - 0.0%
#5 - 0.0%
#6 - 0.0%

They say you're not done until you're mathematically eliminated, but that's pretty bad.  At least the Phins have a 0.1% chance of winning the #6 seed.

According to this model, 8-8 wins the AFC West.  Not sure I'm buying that, but we'll see.

Strange things - the 1-3 Eagles, hopelessly behind the Cowboys in a division where everyone's predicted to finish .500 or better, have a 25.5% chance of making the playoffs.  On the other hand, the 3-2 Panthers, tied for the lead in a division where two teams should have 6 wins or less, have a 20.4% chance of making it.  Odd.
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« Reply #16 on: Dec 03, 2007 at 13:03 »

Just updating again into the last quarter of the season.  Yes, I realize I may dislocate my shoulder trying to pat myself on the back, but I don't get it this close to right very often.

So we're 9-3 as I thought we'd be.   My last prediction was 11-5, splitting the last four.  The difference between now and then is that the Pats if anything may be better than I thought at the time, Jax is still tough, the Rams are improving, and the Ravens are worse than expected.  That said, I'll resist the temptation to tick the win total up another notch and stick with 11-5.  It's still 3 out of four on the road where we haven't proven success outside the division, and St Louis is on the road on a short week.  I figure 20% chance of beating the Pats, and a 60% chance of beating each of the other three, which adds up to two wins.

BTW, the playoff odds report Finny linked in this thread has us looking pretty good.  Even without updating from this past weekend, we're at 81% to win the division, and 97% to go to the playoffs.  I suspect both of those will go up nicely - over 90% for the division and 99% for the playoffs would be my guess.  
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« Reply #17 on: Dec 03, 2007 at 14:20 »

About the whole strength of schedule thing...

You really can't measure it overall in a 16-game NFL season.  Yes, we lost to the Jets, but at a time when they are clearly starting to play better.  My point is that it doesn't really matter overall what the SOS is, it's about how a team is playing when you come up against them.  For example, last year we would have hurt any team's SOS at the midpoint of the season.  But we won 6 of our last 8, so that made it a tough game.  A team that's 5-11 brings you down, but what if they went on a 5-game run at the end?  Or like the Lions/Giants, they hit a skid after starting 6-2?

It just depends on how teams are playing when they are on the schedule.  Makes the SOS argument pretty irrelevant.
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