I would put the Patriots on a tier by themselves.
Honestly, I don't see anyone beating the Patriots. As much as I hate it, they won by cheating/Tom Brady when they didn't have the best talent in the league. Now they have the best talent. This is not coaching genius, it's the fact that all Brady has to do is chunk it up and someone is going to run under the ball. Give him that ability to go with his already annoyingly stellar ability, and that makes them almost unstoppable.
I think the Colts are joined by the Steelers on the second tier (even though our loss to Denver is looking worse and worse)
What concerns me is two very, very bad losses on the road. Obviously we are dominant at home, but we've got to show we can get it done on the road as well.