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Author Topic: Season's Over, Right?  (Read 2547 times)
Burton
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« Reply #20 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 11:45 »

Well this forum has taken an ironic twist, definitely hypocritical.  I'm sure some of you thinkers will know what I'm talking about.  

 
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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #21 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 11:49 »

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None of this is true as the Steelers are guaranteed nothing right now, good or bad. It's not like they're four games behind the Colts with four to play.

Colts' remaining schedule:

@ATL
JAX
@BAL
@OAK
HOU
TEN

Yes, anything can happen, but they've got a one game lead, have already played the division leaders on their schedule, and their three division games are all at home, and they won all 3 on the road.  Do you really see two or three losses there?  Sure, it's possible we go 5-2 or 6-1 and they go 3-3, but it's hardly likely.

No one's giving up, they're just expressing realistic expectations.  I predicted 10-6 in preseason, upgraded to 11-5 at the bye.  I'll stick with the 11-5, because I believe we'll be exactly where I thought we'd be after 12 games (9-3).  Looks to me like a #3 seed, maybe get to the AFCC.  That's not a bad season.  

Want to renew my hope for more?  Win the next two handily, then go to NE and give them a game.  Don't even have to win it, just make them sweat at the end enough to be concerned if they see us again.  Punch them in the mouth to show them we're not going to back down.  Send messages to the recievers that they better not come over the middle.  Get Brady's uniform dirty.  Move the ball freely against their defense, and cash in on opportunities.  Then I'll have hope for more than a playoff game or two.
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Hercules50.
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« Reply #22 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 11:54 »

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Well this forum has taken an ironic twist, definitely hypocritical.  I'm sure some of you thinkers will know what I'm talking about.
You were on to something, that's for sure.

That, plus the fact that since the team is maddeningly inconsistent, means everyone gets proved right and wrong, depending on the week.

I bet we beat Miami by 40 and then go to overtime against Cincy, or something.

Maybe this is all part of a genius plan by Tomlin?
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Cogitobsw
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« Reply #23 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 11:57 »

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The Jets just beat the Steelers . . . so doesn't that mean the Steelers can beat the Pats?  Anything can happen on any given Sunday.

It's not over.  The Pats can play lights out all through September-December for all I care . . . it's what happens in January and February that matters.

We have the inside track to a play off spot.  I'm not thinking draft until we're officially out of contention for the whole shebangabang.
I agree with all that except the draft talk.
I didn't mean that we can't be realistic about our expectations, and I didn't mean thinking about the draft (as in who might be available and what our needs are) is inappropriate . . . I meant that it's a little early to start worrying about positioning for a draft pick.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #24 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 12:02 »

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However, I think a lot of people, myself included, realize the Steelers' chances of winning XLII took a STATISTICAL blow by losing that game, almost guaranteeing them of playing in the Wild Card round.


None of this is true as the Steelers are guaranteed nothing right now, good or bad. It's not like they're four games behind the Colts with four to play.
Being 7-3 doesn't suggest any statistical blow; I'm sure plenty of Super Bowl winners were 7-3 or close to it 10 games in.  But there's certainly a qualitative analysis that says losing to a 1-8 Jets team should not happen, not combined with losses to other struggling clubs.

For those folks who are statistically inclined, the Football Outsiders site does still have us ranked top 5 in their DVOA rankings.  Hey, sounds about right, especially given the enormous numerical rift that follows the Patriots.  But here's a stat that's dogged us all season:  
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VARIANCE measures the statistical variance of the team's weekly DVOA performance. Teams are ranked from least consistent (#1, highest variance) to most consistent (#32, smallest variance).

Guess where the Steelers rank?  We're #2, second only to the Arizona Cardinals (who are probably there due to their issues at QB).  You can't be that up and down and realistically expect great things: it shows how often we're shooting ourselves in the foot, and without a bye week in the playoffs, the odds are just that much better that we do exactly that.

The UPSIDE to that variance stat is that if we're #4 in overall DVOA, and #2 in variance, once we become consistent we could easily be as good as the Pats.  I just find it an illogical assertion to suggest that this sort of housecleaning happens in 6 weeks.  We did it to a degree in 2005, which (like the Arizona situation) was due in large part to Ben being injured mid-season, as well as pass defense issues.  But in 2005 our variance ranked 11th at season's end, and while that's not great, it's certainly not the same as being #2 (18.2% vs. 36.1%, or in other words, we're about twice as up and down as that 2005 season).

Also, using the FO metrics, it's worth noting that we had the 9th best special teams overall in 2005; this year it's 25th "best."  I don't need to remind anyone of the importance of special teams, or their relation to playoff games involving the Patriots.

Finally, if you are a stats geek and you want to assess our playoff and Super Bowl chances, well FO has that worked out too.  According to FO, we have a 97.8% chance of making the playoffs, with the most likely scenarios being a 3rd seed (49.3%) or a second seed (30.9%).  That seems intuitively correct.  

On Super Bowl odds, I think most people would over-estimate the Patriots' chances.  FO gives the breakdown this way:

NE - 36.0%
Dallas - 20.9%
Indy - 11.8%
GB - 11.3%
Pit - 13.9%

Again, I have no way to check their calculations, but intuitively 1 in 7 chances for us seems about right.  (Cleveland's at 0.6%!)

So is 1 in 7, however accurate or pleasing to those mathematical parts of our brain, a good thing, a bad thing, or a wait and see thing?  To what degree does a shitty performance inform those odds?  If we hadn't crapped against the Jets, would it mean we're a better team?  Sure.  Since we did, could it be an anomaly that means nothing down a hot stretch run?  Sure.  But as an indicator of future results, I think the Jets game -- especially juxtaposed with a game where we manhandled the Ravens -- shows that we're too erratic, and still have some uncorrected (and posssibly uncorrectable) flaws.

While we can't be certain of this team's future 2007 performance, we can sort of "get a feeling for it."  That feeling may turn out to be right or wrong, but we're all entitled to that opinion.  Our reasoning in support of that opinion may drive discussion, and emotion, but it obviously doesn't affect what happens on the field.  

So let's let the Steelers show us who's right.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #25 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 12:09 »

BTW, I still think we're probably a top 5 team.  It's just that the level of play to date, with injuries factored into the longview, would seem to indicate something like this:

NE

[big gap]

Some combination of Indy, Pitt, Dallas, GB, and possibly Jax

[another gap]

Some combo of TB, Tenn, NYG, Cleve, SD, and (IMO) Houston

[big gap]

Everyone else.

I think Houston comes back with Johnson in the fold.  I don't see many teams really "moving up in class" or moving down.  Maybe some folks disagree with which teams I've classed together, but I think most would agree that the basic setup, NE far above the rest, then about 5 solid contenders, and then a substrate of solid-to-OK teams, and then a bunch of dopes, is pretty close to accurate.

Problem is, we lost to three dopes.
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padgfrombf
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« Reply #26 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 12:30 »

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See, threads like this annoy me, because it almost seems to me like an opportunity for certain posters to puff out their chests and say "Ha!
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Winters in Holland
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« Reply #27 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 13:11 »

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However, I think a lot of people, myself included, realize the Steelers' chances of winning XLII took a STATISTICAL blow by losing that game, almost guaranteeing them of playing in the Wild Card round.


None of this is true as the Steelers are guaranteed nothing right now, good or bad. It's not like they're four games behind the Colts with four to play.
Actually, you're wrong.

The statistics support the fact that teams with a first-round bye have a statistically higher chance of appearing in/winning the Super Bowl over teams that don't.

Does losing help our chances at getting that bye, especially since the Colts are now a game ahead of us?

Nope.

I know you like to disagree with me oftentimes for the sake of it, but unless you can somehow show the board how losing DOESN'T hurt your playoff seeding/chances, you're are the one that is incorrect.


.WiH.
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I don't care if Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are black. Good for them. But that doesn't change the way I feel about them. The longer we keep looking at guys like Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith as "BLACK HEAD COACHES" as opposed to just "coaches" the longer race will continue to be a problem. --DoctorJohnnyFever
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« Reply #28 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 16:43 »

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The statistics support the fact that teams with a first-round bye have a statistically higher chance of appearing in/winning the Super Bowl over teams that don't.

That's all well and good, but the last I checked the bye weeks haven't been handed out yet. The Colts are playing the rest of their season without their second-best player on defense, they currently have two backups starting at the offensive tackle positions and one healthy wide receiver out of their top three. And what's the status of Dallas Clark? I don't know, but he hasn't played in a while. They nearly lost to Kansas City at home.  

There's still six weeks left to play, a lot of shit can go down in six weeks. Good or bad.

And this thread wasn't even directed at anyone in particular here, more towards the national media and call-in show people who were crowning the Steelers asses last week and now talking about the draft (Tony Kornheiser, Bob from Blawnox, etc. etc. etc.).


 
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SCacalaki
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« Reply #29 on: Nov 20, 2007 at 18:37 »

The OL doesn't appear to be getting better.  But there were big concerns heading into training camp so it should come as no surprise that it's rearing it's head now.  Heck, we're lucky it bumbled itself along for as long as it did.  

The $$$ is right for Simmons, considering last year's market, but the guy isn't a top notch guard.  So you get what you pay for in this scenario.  

Mahan has done worse than I thought he would but if he could shift over to guard next year, with someone or anyone coming to aid OC, his $$$ v. performance is right on.

I didn't think Max Starks was awful last year.  Colon hasn't looked good lately.  Luckily the 2008 draft appears heavy at OT.

Unfortunately, it's light, Mich Ultra light, at OG.  We missed the boat on 2007's crop, with most if not all available at 1.15.  

Still, the Steelers have done a heck of a lot better this year than I expected.  I thought a 8-8 season would be decent as I expected the transition to be rockier.  

Tomlin hasn't gotten a challenge right yet.  But he has done a good job with coaching Ben into a leadership role.  He's helped to keep Faneca's situation from escalating to a lengthy hold out.  And so on.  More good than bad IMO.

The Steelers lost to a 1-8 Jets team.  They missed tackles on defense and special teams.  Arians had some bad play calling late in the game (and I haven't mentioned much negative about Arians).  It was a bad game.  A game that we should have won had the team executed proper fundamentals and some of the coaching staff called a better game.  The OL isn't going to play better.  So Arians must figure out a way to work around what he's got up front.  Ben has done it all year, albeit in an improv manner.  

It's tough to select a pinnacle statement for this post.  So I'll end it by saying that things could be worse....you could be the person I'm firing tomorrow prior to going on vacation for the Thanksgiving holiday.  Then again, even that could be worse...it could be the Christmas holiday.  It's all about perspective.  
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