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Author Topic: JAX far more important than NE...  (Read 1668 times)
Winters in Holland
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« on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:13 »

I'm really looking forward to the New England game, but also trying to keep it in perspective.

Even if we knock off the Patriots (and Jacksonville probably wins), the Jaguars will come into Heinz next week with a 9-4 record, and us at 10-3.  If they knock us off, they'd leapfrog us into the third spot, correct?  Because even though we'd own identical 10-4 records, they'd have the head-to-head over us, right?

Likewise, if we lose this week, and face Jacksonville with the identical 9-4 record next, if we're lucky enough to beat them, we'd not only go 1 game up, but own the tiebreak as well.

So what I'm saying is that outside of derailing a team that needs beaten worse than any in history, the actual meaningful game for the Steelers is next week against Jacksonville, unless you're still holding out hope that the Steelers can catch the Colts for the 2nd seed and 1st round bye.

Personally, I'd be elated if we can get through this 2-game stretch with a 1-1 record.


.WiH.
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I don't care if Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are black. Good for them. But that doesn't change the way I feel about them. The longer we keep looking at guys like Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith as "BLACK HEAD COACHES" as opposed to just "coaches" the longer race will continue to be a problem. --DoctorJohnnyFever
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« Reply #1 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:24 »

Agreed. We have to try and secure that 3rd spot.

Pretty tough to beat the best team in the league twice in one season.

Be competitive and put a few Pats on the IR. That will suffice.


And if Hines could knock Junior's head off, that would be sweet too. Did you see that bastard get juked by WM in the Ravens game? He took off running the wrong way.  
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Puma170
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« Reply #2 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:24 »

Well, if the Steelers win the North then they are guaranteed a top 4 seed.  Even if Jax beats the Steelers and has a better record, then the best they could do is a 5 seed unless they somehow get past Indy to win their division.  

I still think that the Jax game is big since, if the Steelers lose and the Browns win then they could get even with the Steelers heading into the last two games.  I really want nothing on the line of significance for the Rams and Ravens since they are both roads games against teams the Steelers should beat.  Not a good scenario for success thus far this season.

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CityofChamps1979
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« Reply #3 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:25 »

I think we get the 3 seed if we win our division regardless of Jax record, since they won't win the South over Indy.  We need to stay ahead of San Diego though, to keep them #4.  To be comfortable going into the last week at the Ratbirds, it is pretty essential that the Steelers go 1-1 in the next two weeks, at least.

They didn't change the playoff seeding rules since last year, did they?
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DoctorJohnnyFever
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« Reply #4 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:33 »

I was getting ready to agree with the original post, but then everyone else reminded me of the obvious: Jacksonville can't get a top-4 seed because it won't win its division. So that settles that.
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otismalibu
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« Reply #5 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:41 »

It's possible that SD could run the table and finish 11-5. I think that would give them one loss in their division and a  9-3 conference record.

Is the first tie breaker for division ties, better win % in your division?  
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« Reply #6 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:42 »

And I really don't see anyway that Jacksonville wins its division. The Jags are two games back of Indy and have lost to the Colts twice already (and have three division losses total).

 
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Hercules50.
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« Reply #7 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:46 »

Yep.

I think we're in the fortunate position this December of having no SINGLE game being of any particular importance.

We just need to win one or two of them to take the division. Maybe we can catch Indy for that #2 spot, which makes our AFC games more important for any tiebreakers.

But if we take the division we're guaranteed a home game for the WildCard round, at least.

That said, momentum would be nice.

As for competing with SD, I don't see a difference between being the #4 or the #3 seed.
« Last Edit: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:47 by Hercules50. » Logged
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« Reply #8 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 10:56 »

Quote
It's possible that SD could run the table and finish 11-5. I think that would give them one loss in their division and a  9-3 conference record.

Is the first tie breaker for division ties, better win % in your division?
That's a good point, because if SD takes the 3rd seed, even though unlikely, Steelers take 4th seed and would play Jacksonville, since they will be the 5th seed with the better record for a wildcard.  Just from past years/experience, I think the Steelers would rather play whoever gets the 6 seed, which looks like it will be Cleveland.
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« Reply #9 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 11:03 »

Quote
Quote
It's possible that SD could run the table and finish 11-5. I think that would give them one loss in their division and a  9-3 conference record.

Is the first tie breaker for division ties, better win % in your division?
That's a good point, because if SD takes the 3rd seed, even though unlikely, Steelers take 4th seed and would play Jacksonville, since they will be the 5th seed with the better record for a wildcard.  Just from past years/experience, I think the Steelers would rather play whoever gets the 6 seed, which looks like it will be Cleveland.
It's been a few years since we beat the Brownies 3 times in the same season, this seems like a good year for that to happen again.

 
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Hercules50.
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« Reply #10 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 11:07 »

Quote
Quote
Quote
It's possible that SD could run the table and finish 11-5. I think that would give them one loss in their division and a
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Winters in Holland
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« Reply #11 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 12:20 »

Quote


As for competing with SD, I don't see a difference between being the #4 or the #3 seed.
Thanks for catching my miss, everyone.  Jax can't get the #3 unless they passed Indy.

Here's what I think the big- no, HUGE- difference is between the #3 seed and the #4:


Probable teams faced before AFCC as #3 seed:
Cleveland
Indianapolis

Probable teams faced before AFCC as #4 seed:
Jacksonville
New England


The difficulty difference between those two roads is gigantic, IMO.



.WiH.
« Last Edit: Dec 06, 2007 at 12:21 by Winters in Holland » Logged

I don't care if Lovie Smith and Tony Dungy are black. Good for them. But that doesn't change the way I feel about them. The longer we keep looking at guys like Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith as "BLACK HEAD COACHES" as opposed to just "coaches" the longer race will continue to be a problem. --DoctorJohnnyFever
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« Reply #12 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 12:42 »

Quote
Quote


As for competing with SD, I don't see a difference between being the #4 or the #3 seed.
Thanks for catching my miss, everyone.  Jax can't get the #3 unless they passed Indy.

Here's what I think the big- no, HUGE- difference is between the #3 seed and the #4:


Probable teams faced before AFCC as #3 seed:
Cleveland
Indianapolis

Probable teams faced before AFCC as #4 seed:
Jacksonville
New England


The difficulty difference between those two roads is gigantic, IMO.



.WiH.
Just to clarify, because I don't really disagree --

I  see what you're getting at, but a 'huge' difference? Eh.

What's the difference between these schedules:

A) Cleveland, Indy, NE

B) Jacksonville, NE, Indy

I agree that A offers a better shot at getting to the AFCC, but I don't particularly care, this year, about the difference between losing the AFCC or losing in an earlier round. And since getting to the Super Bowl will require beating NE, I don't think it matters what round we face them in.

I do agree with your implication that we match up better against Cleveland than against Jacksonville. But again, I think if this team can't beat the Jaguars, we wouldn't have beaten New England anyway. (Exception being if we kill the Pats this Sunday and then lose our wildcard game because the jags ran several flukey fumbles back for TDs or something!)
 
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #13 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 14:04 »

Quote
It's possible that SD could run the table and finish 11-5. I think that would give them one loss in their division and a  9-3 conference record.

Is the first tie breaker for division ties, better win % in your division?
First tiebreaker is head to head, then it goes to conference record. So if Pitt and SD both finish 11-5, whoever hs the better conference record wil be the #3 seed. Jax is not going to win the South. They lost twice to Indy so they would have to beat them by a game. Not happening.

#3 seed means home against probably Cle, then away to Indy. #4 seed meams home against Jax and then away to NE. Not much difference there, but I would rather play Cle, Indy, then NE in the AFCC.
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« Reply #14 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 14:26 »

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And since getting to the Super Bowl will require beating NE, I don't think it matters what round we face them in.

i think there is a BIG difference between playing the pats in the AFCC opposed to the 2nd round.  its called momentum...

if we were #4 seed and had to play JAX then NE, thats 2 tough as fuck games that would wear down this team cosiderably.

go in as a #3 start off with Clev then Indy, two soft defensive teams that will not kick the ever living crap out of our offense...that right there would build some very nice momentum for a well rested NE team that most likley will  have blown out its first round team.
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« Reply #15 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 15:05 »

What's important is that we win some combination of any 2 of our last 4 games to lock up the division and a home playoff game in R1.  Realistically, that's about the best we can do and it would be a major accomplishment for a team with an offensive line like ours.
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« Reply #16 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 17:56 »

WTF? All the games are important.
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« Reply #17 on: Dec 06, 2007 at 19:26 »

Lets hope SD doesnt run the table...

If so..

We'd need to go 3-1.   Just eyeballing it, I think SD would have the tie breakers. Denver loss would be huge for head-to-head, and they'd have one less conference loss.

I concur with the prospect of playing Cleveland, Jax, Tenn first, Go to Indy, then New England would be the best case possible (3rd seat)

 
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« Reply #18 on: Dec 07, 2007 at 08:19 »

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possible (3rd seat)
DC - Do you have French Benefits?  Just kidding.

Steelers might end up with the 3rd seed.  Or seeded 3rd.

I don't think they will play sitting down though.    :poke:  
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« Reply #19 on: Dec 07, 2007 at 09:42 »

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WTF? All the games are important.
Thank you.  Was just thinking of posting the same thing.

Post-season seeding and shit is fun to contemplate, but I want wins.  I want to see us play well now, and better in January.  I want this team to come together like it did in 2005.
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