FUCK YOU OVER-REACTING ASSHOLES

[Finnegans Wake]

IMO, and I guess we're drafting what, 23rd?  24th?  We'll have a prime shot at a good LT.  Long and Baker are draftniks' picks for the top OTs, which is fine.  I like the next 3 better anyway: Clady, Williams, and Otah.  I don't know that you get too many R1s with 5 or 6 OTs taken, so a good shot at protecting the blindside without a reach.

In fact, we might be able to do some trade-downs for more picks, go BAA among some targets, and come out sweet in the draft.  I'd go with Scheuning if I could, and some small school DE/DT types, maybe throw in the UGA center... Ahhh, but I've said it all before.  Build from the trenches.  We've neglected that too much lately.  Nothing against our recent top picks, but the lines are suffering.

[Puma170]

I agree in principle with the philosophy that a team shouldn't reach for need in the draft, but, the offensive line is SO bad that I feel we have to focus on it with a plurality of our top 4 picks.

We have to protect Ben, he's too important to the team.

I agree 100%.  I would 110% but that is statistically impossible.

PUMA

[LambertsFrontTeeth]

I don't know that you get too many R1s with 5 or 6 OTs taken, so a good shot at protecting the blindside without a reach.

In fact, we might be able to do some trade-downs for more picks, go BAA among some targets, and come out sweet in the draft.

I'm too lazy to check, but I wouldn't be shocked if we are picking the bottom barrel of the top-flight OT prospects at 23.  There is a dearth of OL talent right now, which is why Ellen will be very, very wealthy soon. I hope that isn't the case, but...

For that reason, I don't think trading down (in the first, anyway) is an option.

The time to trade down was LAST year, when we could have traded with someone and moved down and taken Grubs or even maybe Beason...and got, what, another 2nd? Or 3rd? And used that pick for either an OL or LB (whichever we didn't find in the trade-down).  But don't get me started....

[Finnegans Wake]

Number of R1 (and R2) OTs taken

2007 - 3 (1)
2006 - 1 (4)
2005 - 2 (3)
2004 - 3 (1)
2003 - 3 (1)
2002 - 4 (3)
2001 - 2 (2)
2000 - 3 (4)
1999 - 4 (2)
1998 - 3 (2)

That's a ten-year scope.  Max R1 + R2 total = 7 (2000, 2002).  Max R1 = 4 (1999).  Min R1 = 1 (2006).  Average R1 = 2.8; average R2 = 2.3.  

For the sake of argument, let's say an average year has 3 first rounders and 2 seconds; sounds about right.  But let's say this year is more top-heavy.  I'll use the NFL Draft Scout rankings and projections by round for this exercise.

Rank - Name - School - Projected Round

1. Jake Long, Michigan - R1
2. Ryan Clady, Boise St. - R1
3. Jeff Otah, Pitt - R1
4. Chris Williams, Vanderbilt - R1
5. Sam Baker, USC - R1-2
6. Gosder Cherilus, Boston College - R2
7. Carl Nicks, Nebraska - R2
8. Anthony Collins, Kansas - R2-3

Notes:  Most draft sites have Long and Baker followed by Clady.  I'm not big on Baker, and this is the first ranking that I've seen that hews pretty close to my own top 6, at least.  Not as famuiliar with Nicks and Collins.  I've pushed for Williams or Otah, which would seem to fall close to pick 24 or whatever we have.

That's 8, with the 10-year high for 1st rounders at 4 (Williams, at worst), and high for first two rounds at 7 (Nicks).  Even going 5 R1 nets you Baker at the bottom.  Looking by team:

Miami - Needs help everywhere.  Will Parcells go for Long at 1.1?  My guess is no; there are better players out there, maybe Glenn Dorsey or Chris Long.
Rams - Very good chance of replacing Pace with Long.
Raiders - Maybe, but gunshy post-Gallery?
Falcons - Maybe, but QB is a bit of an issue.
Chiefs - Another great line in decline, bet they take Clady.
Jets - Just drafted Brick not so long ago.
*Pats - More likely to go LB.
Ravens - Ogden may be gone, but they like Gaither.
Bengals - Not a top need with Anderson and Andrews.
Saints - Not a need.
Bills - Ditto.
Broncos - Maybe.  But LB might be more of a need, and might go OT via FA?
Panthers - Gross and Wharton are FAs.  Otah? Well, this is a team in dire need of a QB, too.
Bears - I'm thinking QB.  Call me crazy.
Lions - Gotta go WR!  Could go OT, since Goerge Foster fucked up in Denver and here, too.  Otah?
Cards - Won't need another R1 OT.
Vikes - Line looks good to me.
Texans - Still need a LT, might pick Williams.
Eagles - When healthy, a solid line.
Bucs - Trouble at LT, could take Baker.
Skins - Not a need.
Titans - Good line.
Steelers - ?

Kinda guessing some of that order...  NFL Draft Countown has 5 going (Long, Clady, Otah, Baker, Cherilus).  The list above has 6 before us at 24.  Either would set a 10-year precedent.

IMO, the most likely to fall to us are 4, Williams (my pick), and 5, Baker.  I'd be reluctant to take Cherilus R1, as he looks iffy at LT.  Rather go DL if that happens, take a shot on one of the R2 guys.

[Finnegans Wake]

Did Michael Oher say he was staying in school?  If he declares, one more R1er...

[Preacherman0]

I'm really, REALLY hoping that Williams will be around when we draft.

[Finnegans Wake]

I'm really, REALLY hoping that Williams will be around when we draft.

You seen him much, Preach?  I've only seen a little, but liked him and love his stats -- 2 sacks allowed in 2 years vs. SEC LOC?  Pretty nice.

I've seen him being mocked anywhere from mid-R1 to early R2.

[aj_law]

Tomlin, no.  **** LeBeau, no.  Arians, you bet your fucking ass I do.