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Author Topic: Seven Trade-Down Scenarios  (Read 863 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Apr 24, 2008 at 12:03 »

Some sites are saying RBs -- Texas's Jamaal Charles, East Carolina's Chris Johnson, and Arkansas's Felix Jones, among them -- could be moving on up the draft boards, so much so that teams might trade into the late R1 to get one of them.  That's too much for my brain to handle, so I've run seven scenarios based on teams who might target late R1 for QBs: the Fins, Chiefs, Falcons, Ravens, Bears, and Jets.  Possible targets include Brian Brohm, Chad Henne, and Joe Flacco.

First off, the FO would be reluctant to help the Ravens, but since the Ravens have four non-comp picks total, it's hard to see a way they could wrangle the deal anyhow.

The Jets might not think Kellen Clemens is the answer, but like the Ravens, they're in no position to move up, with five picks and four of them day two.

The Bears could move back into R1 and still retain their mid-R1 selection.  They might target a top RB (Stewart, Mendenhall) or OT (Williams, Albert) and want to add a top QB talent.  Trading down from 14 might be harder than trading up.  If they want to jump all the way to 1.23, here's how they could do it:

Bears' 2.44 + 3.70 + 4.110 = 774 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.188 Steelers

For the Bears, getting a premiere RB and a top QB might be worth that.  For the Steelers, getting a second, third, and a fourth would hit some nice target values.  Still, this seems the unlikeliest of all six scenarios.

The Dolphins have signed Jake Long at 1.1, and hold two second round picks.  If the whispers about getting Chad Henne hold water, they could move up to 1.23 and still hang onto the first pick of round 2.

Fins' 2.57 +  3.64 + 4.100 = 700 <---> 760 = 1.23 Steelers

This is also unlikely, on several fronts.  First, Bill Parcells probably would not use three middle picks to move to 1.23, and the Steelers might ultimately reject the value differential.  Given the fact that 4.100 is virtually a third round pick, I would personally trade quality for quantity.

The Chiefs have 12 picks, following the Allen trade, and the Falcons 11.  Here's where the fun scenarios begin.

Chiefs' 2.35 + 3.82 + 5.36 = 768 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.188 Steelers (Or 760 for 1.23 alone.)

This would give the Chiefs three first round picks, and then two third round picks.  They could add offensive line help (Clady),  a pass rushing end (Harvey), and still grab a QB at the 1.23 spot.

The Chiefs could also package:

Chiefs 2.35 + 3.73 = 775 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.88 Steelers

A streamlined version of the above scenario.

The Falcons have a bit more flexibility, with three second round picks.  At the top of the first at 1.3, they could take Matt Ryan, but they might want an interior presence like Glenn Dorsey or even Sedrick Ellis.  Taking one of those two and then getting the best available QB at 1.23... There would be less a dropoff in QB talent than in DT talent in that setup.

Falcs' 2.34 + 3.68 = 810 <---> 809 = 1.23 +4.123 Steelers

The Falcons have a third round comp, and would still have two second round picks.  The Steelers would wind up with two second and two thirds.

Falcs' 2.37 + 3.68 = 780 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.188 Steelers

A variation of the above.

Falcs' 2.48 + 3.68 + 4.103 = 758 <---> 760 = 1.23 Steelers

Falcons keep their two higher second round picks and add a second first round pick.  The Steelers get three for one, all decent value.  This would be the best scenario, IMO, with six picks from R2-4.
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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Apr 24, 2008 at 12:18 »

Wow, great stuff here.

So much is player availability dependent because if there are 10 guys that I like still on the board at 1.23, I might be willing to fall back a little further in an effort to get an extra pick.  However, if a lot of the quality guys are off the board (as I expect), I'd do everything I could to stay in the top 10 of R2.

With that said, in order, I'd take:

#1 =
Quote
Chiefs 2.35 + 3.73 = 775 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.88 Steelers

A streamlined version of the above scenario.

The Falcons have a bit more flexibility, with three second round picks. At the top of the first at 1.3, they could take Matt Ryan, but they might want an interior presence like Glenn Dorsey or even Sedrick Ellis. Taking one of those two and then getting the best available QB at 1.23... There would be less a dropoff in QB talent than in DT talent in that setup.

#2 =
Quote
Falcs' 2.37 + 3.68 = 780 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.188 Steelers

A variation of the above.

#3 =
Quote
Bears' 2.44 + 3.70 + 4.110 = 774 <---> 776 = 1.23 + 6.188 Steelers

For the Bears, getting a premiere RB and a top QB might be worth that. For the Steelers, getting a second, third, and a fourth would hit some nice target values. Still, this seems the unlikeliest of all six scenarios.

The Dolphins have signed Jake Long at 1.1, and hold two second round picks. If the whispers about getting Chad Henne hold water, they could move up to 1.23 and still hang onto the first pick of round 2.
« Last Edit: Apr 24, 2008 at 12:18 by aj_law » Logged

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #2 on: Apr 24, 2008 at 14:27 »

Who do you target in a trade-down?  I'm going heavily from visit lists...

Falcs' 2.48 + 3.68 + 4.103 = 758 <---> 760 = 1.23 Steelers


2.48 - Cliff Avril, OLB, Purdue.  Groves is gone, Avril's the best pass rush talent on the board.
2.55 - Jerome Simpson, WR, Coastal Carolina.  Might be gone by 68, is not a huge dropoff from the higher talent, could be a Z receiver now and more later.
3.68 - Charles Godfrey, CB/FS.  Versatility is a plus, especially if he can be groomed at FS.
3.88 - Kendall Langford, DE, Hampton.  Might not last to 4.
4.103 - Mike McGlynn, OL, Pitt.  Also might not last to 4, but at the top of 4, if we get a guy like McGlynn, who could possibly play any OL spot but LT, it'd be a great pickup.
4.123 - Orlando Scandrick, WR/KR, Boise St.  Need that KR.  If he can play any corner, fine.
5.156 - King Dunlap, OT, Auburn.  Rumor we are interested, and if the top LTs are gone early, and we're not enamored of Collins, Nicks, et al., he could be a project.  Certainly has the size.  Needs a fire lit under his ass.
6.188 - Keilen Dykes, DL, WVU.  With some time to bulk and strengthen, could develop as a backup NT, and in the meantime could play DT in the 40 fronts for pass rush.
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« Reply #3 on: Apr 26, 2008 at 01:43 »

I really like the one that is getting more and more steam... the Dolphins trading back into the 1.23 spot... Steelers getting the 2.32 pick and next years first in return steelers give up the 1.23... you do this deal in a heart beat. Both teams have really tough schedules next year, and we could get Oher and someone else solid.

Next year in the 1st round we could get Oher and Malaluga (sp) that would be one hell of a first round!
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