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Author Topic: Official 2008 Draft Thread  (Read 15208 times)
vinman3
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« Reply #220 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 09:00 »

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I don't know enough about, except that WVU fans think Mundy wasn't very good and won't make the cut in the bigs.
I completely disagree with that assessment. I think Mundy will be a solid FS. He has good coverage skills and is smart. His addition to the WVU secondary really improved a porous WVU secondary. I think he is starting in 2009.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #221 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 09:16 »

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I don't know enough about, except that WVU fans think Mundy wasn't very good and won't make the cut in the bigs.
I completely disagree with that assessment. I think Mundy will be a solid FS. He has good coverage skills and is smart. His addition to the WVU secondary really improved a porous WVU secondary. I think he is starting in 2009.
Was going by comments at the BSG board.  I'll defer to you, vinman!  

Actually, I just looked up his numbers and Humpal's, and they ain't bad.  Decent speed; the famed KEI close to the magic cutoff.  Could both wind up being good finds.  I stand corrected.
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #222 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 09:35 »

Again, I came out of round one somewhat shocked, almost thrilled with our selections.  We drafted BPA, in spite of our needs, and I normally think that's a good philosophy.

But, in typical Colbert fashion, we blew on day two.  I cannot understand our decisions (or lack of them) on OL and DL.  I actually think that DL may be more shallow than OL right now.  If any of the top three go down, we're sunk.

Perhaps we think we can do better next year with OL/DL, but we are in a precarious spot, to say the least, with our front lines.  And I personally would not mind at all if Zierlein gets the axe after this season, unless the line shows marked improvement.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #223 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 10:30 »

Part of the thinking not to better bolster the lines may be this.

On OL, upgrading C is a key start.  The ripple effect had to move to both guards, compensating, and that had to hurt the interplay of guard and tackle.  Solidifying the center will hopefully help make the entire IOL better, even with Faneca leaving.  Simmons-Hartwig-Colon, for instance >> Faneca-Mahan-Simmons?

On DL, I agree we are thin.  There's just nothing there, compared to something of a logjam of fair to middlin' OGs.  I've read that the staff likes McBean's progress, but that's a lot to hang your hat on.  NT is a big worry, despite Hoke's decent play of some years ago, as I think he's more vulnerable now.  Kirschke is yuck, and so is everyone else we have there.  

Maybe Paxson and Capizzi will really blossom.

In sum: small changes alleviate the need for a big splashy draft.

Now, not that I agree with all that, but maybe they're thinking they've got enough.  
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« Reply #224 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 10:56 »

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In sum: small changes alleviate the need for a big splashy draft.

Yeah, I see the logic.  I just tend to think that, after the big picks are off the board, you draft volume at those two positions and see what shakes out.  

But who knows?  Maybe the kid from Marshall gets it done--twice as good, since he could be a long snapper and provide oline depth.  Maybe Hills, maybe Capizi...personally I'd really like to see Capizi succeed.  Surely an upgrade at center has to help, as that has always been the anchor for Steeler lines.  Every time we've been thin at center, bad things have happened to us.  

Still, that's not much to hang your hat on, at the two most important positions.  McBean?  Maybe...but Eason and Kirschke flat out stink.  For this season, just seems like a big roll of the dice.
 
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« Reply #225 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 11:04 »

Legursky's a good pickup.  
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #226 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 13:35 »

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[VENT]  One of the networks was interviewing Mike Tomlin afterward, and questioned the lack of O-Line choices.  Tomlin said that there were two schools of thought to "protecting" your QB; you could build a better line, or you could get him more weapons.  I actually heard the vein in my temple burst.  Did the Pats lose the Super Bowl because Brady didn't have enough "weapons", or did they lose it because Brady had Giants stuck in his face-mask all night?  Ask Carson Palmer how Plan B works.  Ask Marc Bulger, Matt Shaub, Jake Delhomme, The late Mike Vick, or any QB ever coached by Mike Martz how it feels to have a revolving door between you and the defensive line.  The weapons only work if the QB is on his feet long enough to use them.[/VENT]
Ain't that the truth. Seems opposite of what he said post Jags loss about strengthing the lines. Have to wonder how much input he had in the draft and whether he was "sold" on the weapons/walking wounded plan, or just towing the company line.

Seems like Hills will either be a geat pick, if he can replace Smith with quality play, or a big "what were they thinking" pick, if his injuries are too much to overcome at the next level. Chances are low that he will start at LT in 2 years, but he seems like a fighter after coming back from the career threatening kee injury.

The day 2 picks were the usual Colbert mish mash of need/reaches/injury projects. If they get 2 guys contributing out of that bunch next year it will be good. Hopefully ST play will be stronger. Day 1 however, brought us some talent. Its going to be real interesting to see what happens. BA must be wetting himself with thoughts of 3, 4 receiver sets, a monster TE, a great QB, pro bowl RB, possibly a great #2 RB, and a new semi-proven 3rd down back. Still, if Ben is running for his life every play again, and Willie/Mendenahll are getting hit 3 yards deep in the backfield, its going to be a replay of last year, but with more points, and probably more injuries.

I guess I am clinging fervently to the hope that Hartwig can step up and anchor the middle of the line and things will instantly be better. And that Smith can be healthy and good again. And Kemo steps up and with some quality at LG. And Simmons starts really earning his big extension. Thats so much hope I need to borrow some from Obama.

DL is too scary to really think about. Aside from the starters, who are excellent, there is just he same warm bodies as last year. You would have thought that  seeing the right side of the DL DOMINATED when Smith was out last year would have brought fresh blood in. Hopefully no one gets hurt ( Yet more hope).
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« Reply #227 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 14:22 »

I didn't post my pre-draft value board, but put one together anyway.  Had overall rank, projected round, and tiers.  The tiers thing was from NFLDS, which had an article saying you have top tier talent (1-6), then just a shade off that (7-13), then 14-25 is the rest of what's really the best.  They keep making tier breaks that, when charted, have a nice statistical kinda flow.  Punch these values into Excel and see what I mean.  You go 26-50, 51-80, 81-120, 121-160, 161-200.  I had 201-323 for the rest of my board of ranked players.  Idea being, if you get a guy at 2 or at 5, that's one quality of player.  Or, you could draft a guy at 31 or at 45, and there's not a huge dropoff.  It kind of looks beyond rounds to more general groupings of talent.  So if you took a guy within a tier but it was a "reach" according to charts broken out that way, it might not really be such a big reach.

So here's some brief value notes.

1.23. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Indiana. We had some discussion about Mendenhall vs. Stewart, but I had Mendenhall ahead.  Both are similarly sized, can run well inside or out, but Mendenhall can block pretty well.  I don't think McFadden will be as good a pro as either, by the Reggie Bush argument.  On my overall value, I had him ranked #12, a Tier 2 guy we got in Tier 3.  So that's a steal by 11 slots (+11), and a significant tier jump.

2.55.  Limas Sweed, WR, Texas.
 Some boards had Sweed #1 among WRs and a mid- to late R1 value.  I had him rated #21 overall, so that's a (+34) value, and we actually got a Tier 3 guy in Tier 5, or a very significant tier jump.

3.88.  Bruce Davis, OLB, UCLA.  A great deal of differing eval on this guy, and players like Groves, Avril, and Wheeler all suffered significant drops from projected value.  Much of that may have to do with the DE to OLB conversion making value a difficult call.  I had Davis #137 overall (and round 5), so a (-49) reach.  Big as that reach may be, it's only a 1 tier differential.  And again, it's arguable that Davis was not so much of a reach.

4.130.  Tony Hills, OT, Texas.  Injury issues had him way down my board, at 165.  So, a (-35) reach.  Also only a 1 tier displacement, and I had him also as going in round 5.  So a reach, and we can argue value against other OTs, but there was a real run on OL talent early.

5.156.  Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon. The most heatedly debated pick.  Liked the idea more when he looked to be a late-round luxury in a trenches draft, but with the first two rounds going to surfeit, this might be a bit much.  Unless he pans out, then fine, right?  I had him rated as #140, (-16), a round 5 guy, no plus or minus in tier value.

6.188.  Mike Humpal, ILB, Iowa. Not ranked on my board, so at least 2 tier off in talent, and 135 slots too soon IMO.  I think Humpal is a guy they valued more than most; looked like a probable UDFA they wanted to get the jump on.  Question: couldn't we have scrapped for Humpal or a similar player, and gotten better ROI at 6.188?

6.194.  Ryan Mundy, S. WVU. Had him 280, so a reach of 1 tier and (-86) reach value.  Another guy who they liked more than the value seemed to support.  Same question applies.  

So, the typical mixed Colbert bag.  Some good, some ugly, some meh.  

Since higher picks are worth more, I took the difference from my ranking and where picked, and multiplied by the standard trade value from the chart.

In other words, Mendenhall is a +11.  1.23 is given a 760 point value.  That comes to +11 x 760 = +8360.  Good picks early offset crappy ones late.

Can't really incorporate tier jumps into this, but I think they're an interesting discussion for another day.

So:

Mendenhall:  +8,360.
Sweed: +11,900.
Davis: -7,350.
Hills: -1,470.
Dixon: -216.
*Humpal:  -2187.
Mundy: -1,187.

Net: +7850.  What that means, I don't know.  If you look at the Mendenhall +8,360 or Hills -7,350, it's got an absolute value in that arena.  So, overall, you could say that we would have about broken even if we'd have gotten the 23rd best player at 1.23 and the rest played out as it did.  Limas Sweed offsets the other reaches.  Mendenhall is the icing on the cake.
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KeystoneKC
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« Reply #228 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 16:03 »

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So here's some brief value notes.

1.23. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Indiana. On my overall value, I had him ranked #12, a Tier 2 guy we got in Tier 3.  So that's a steal by 11 slots (+11), and a significant tier jump.

2.55.  Limas Sweed, WR, Texas.
 I had him rated #21 overall, so that's a (+34) value, and we actually got a Tier 3 guy in Tier 5, or a very significant tier jump.

3.88.  Bruce Davis, OLB, UCLA.  I had Davis #137 overall (and round 5), so a (-49) reach.

4.130.  Tony Hills, OT, Texas.  Injury issues had him way down my board, at 165.  So, a (-35) reach.

5.156.  Dennis Dixon, QB, Oregon. I had him rated as #140, (-16), a round 5 guy, no plus or minus in tier value.

6.188.  Mike Humpal, ILB, Iowa. Not ranked on my board, so at least 2 tier off in talent, and 135 slots too soon IMO.  

6.194.  Ryan Mundy, S. WVU. Had him 280, so a reach of 1 tier and (-86) reach value.

 It looks like you & I were in the same ballpark, for the most part Fin.  I had 'em thusly:

Mendenhall:  Drafted at 1.23, & ranked #11 overall.  Was the highest ranked player left on my board when the Steelers went on the clock.  Job well done.

Sweed:  Drafted at 2.53, & ranked #30 overall.  I only had one available guy ranked higher when they came to bat.  It was Dan Connor & I've already admitted to PSU fandom, which prolly causes me to overate the hometown kids.  Again, job well done.

Davis:  Drafted at 3.88, and ranked #160 (5C).  Either I missed the boat on this guy, or the Steelers got overanxious.  I really hope I'm wrong about this, but the voices in my head keep whispering Zo Jackson's name.


Hillis:  Drafted at 4.130, & ranked #124.  Par, as far as I'm concerned.

Dixon:  Drafted at 5.156, & ranked #194.  I thought he would still be there in R6.  I have no real issue with taking a flier late in the draft on a QB project, especially this year after losing St. Pierre in FA.  I pimped a Rick Gosselin artice a couple times (Here's 1), that makes a lot of sense to me.  Dixon, Colt Brennan, or Andre Woodson were three that I thought might be there in the 6th if the Steelers decided to go that way.  As it turns out, the other two both went in that time frame.

Humpal:  Drafted at 6.188, and ranked #237.  One round early by my board.

Mundy:  Drafted at 6.194, and ranked #250.  (See Humpal, Mike)

As I mentioned earlier, it looks almost like they shifted everyone in D2 forward by one round to make up for not having a R7 pick.  
 
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« Reply #229 on: Apr 28, 2008 at 16:22 »

Re: DL, wasn't Dallas shopping Marcus Spears in February?  Certainly better than Kirschke and Eason.  

Maybe a 4th rounder?  
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