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Author Topic: Finny's week 2 pix  (Read 877 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Sep 12, 2008 at 11:03 »

The dog got into something he wasn't supposed to and shit all over the floor last night.  I'm cleaning up moist piles at 2:00 a.m. and then can't get back to sleep for a while.  What does this have to do with my picks?  I'll tell you what.  I'm vaguely cranky, and I hate dogshit.  Unfortunately, there's a lot of dogshit this week.

To wit:

The Dogshit Games

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs.  The Raiders are the living embodiment of their owner, which is to say, they act like they're dead and just being moved by strings.  Meanwhile, the Chiefs had 12 -- count 'em -- 12 draft picks in the 2008 draft.  This is worth noting because this team will be in a rebuilding mode for at least as long as Herm Edwards is around.

USA Today says:  8/8 panelists selected the Chiefs.

Finny says: I really just don't care, but I don't see what the fuck is so compelling about the Chiefs that 8 of 8 "experts" picked them.  HFA?  I'll say the Raider D has a better time against Damon Huard than Jay Cutler, and Darren McFadden breaks loose.  Raiders 24, Chiefs 21.

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks.   Seahawks always play better at home, but then again, it'd be hard for them to play worse than their opener versus the Bills.  Granted, Matt Hasselbeck's receiving options were a pirate with a pegleg and that midget from In Bruges, but I don't think there was a phase of the game the Whiny Seahags executed better than some high school teams.  The 49ers didn't fall as far, because when you're standing on a phone book and you fall off, it's not like you're plummeting to your death, dude.  Hasselbeck still has no weapons, so the game comes down to whether the Haggie D can shut down Frank Gore.  

USA Today says: 7/8 go with the Whiny Walrii; one selects Seattle as the lock of the week.

Finny says:  At least Mike Nolan doesn't wear those cutoff Flashdance rejects like el Cheato.   Seahawks 17, 49ers 13.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals.  I think this year the Cards win the NFCW, which is like saying your girlfriend won the Hairiest Back Competition.  The Dolphins are primed for a faster-than-expected turnaround under the Bill Parcells Management Regime and Bouncing Man Teats Association, but I don't think this is their win, just yet.

USA Today says:  8/8 for the Cards; 1 lock of the week.

Finny says:  Cards 27, Dolphins 14.

Baltimore Ravens (+5) at Houston Texans.  OK, the Ravens made the Bengals look like the worst team in the league, by far.  But who's to say they weren't anyway?  Any other year, the Ravens D alone would be enough to beat the Texans.  But as bad as the Texans looked against the Steelers, I expect them to play better and Joe Flacco to show that he is indeed a rookie.  Expect Schaub to find Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter for scores.

USA Today says: 7/8 pick Texans.

Finny says:  Texans 21, Ravens 13.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals.
What this line says to me is that a lot of people with money to waste still think of the Bengals as an offensive juggernaut, when in fact they are an offensive excuse for a football team.  Who gives a shit who the Titans put behind the helmet in this one?  The Bengals win three this year, and win number one ain't this one.

USA Today says: 4/8 select Bengals, 4/8 select Titans.

Finny says:  Titans 24, Bengals 10.

Lopsided Games

At least these feature one team that could be a contender.  I don't find watching a sad piece of shit team getting destroyed by a team not named the Steelers to be fun watching, really.  But here we see some glimmers of competence from one team.

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit Lions.  Detroit's problem is that they've neglected the wide receiver position in the draft.  Seriously.  Draft more wide receivers.  Rod Marinelli may want to hollow out a pen to use to shoot curare darts at Ryan Grant, as flashbacks of Michael "the Burner" Turner's fat ass running for over 200 yards replays as he eats his cold oatmeal.  OK, I'll say the Lions pass attack keeps this closer than it should be, but hard to go against the Pack.

USA Today says:  6/8 for the Packers.

Finny says:  Packers 31, Lions 21.

New York Giants (-8) at St. Louis Rams.
 Yes, it's a big line.  Yes, the Quivering Toe looked like his old slobbery lip self last week.  And yes, the Rams might conceivably improve some over last year, since they play at home this week.  But come on.  Who are you fooling?  The Rams are in some weird menage a trois with the Bengals and the Chiefs to see who can be the most rebarbative team in all the bigs.  Scott Linehan's bags are packed, rezzies made in Punta Cana, and high hopes of sipping some rum-based drink with an umbrella in it within the month dance in his head.

USA Today says: 8/8 for the Giants; 4 locks.

Finny says:  If a good QB like McNabb can do it without any receivers, a mediocre QB like Ellie can do it with some.  Giants 34, Rams 6.  Lock of the Week I.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns.
 You know, this is a division game, so anything can happen, and the Steelers may be overlooking the Browns, who will be playing as if their season depended on a win, and the Browns potent offense of 2007 will re-emerge some time, and...  OK, you can take all that shit and flush it down the commode.  The Browns, who, on paper, were destined -- destined! -- to win the AFCN, looked like shit in the preseason, and looked every bit as turdly in their opener against the Cowboys.  Yes, I used the word "turdly."  The Cowboys' offense may be better than the Steelers, but their D?  Nah.  Another beat-down, just like last week.

USA Today says:  6/8 select Pittsburgh.  (Sean Leahy and Tom Pedulla went with the Browns v. the spread, whoeverthefuck Sean Leahy and Tom Pedulla are.  Apparently, when they aren't diddling stray cats, they are writing for USA Today to support their rampant drug habits.)

Finny says:  Fuck the motherfucking Browns.  Steelers 35, Browns 10.  Lock of the Week II.

The Twilight Zone Games

As in, are the Broncos as good as they looked against those pisspoor Raiders?  Or was I in the Twilight Zone?

Chicago Bears (+3) at Carolina Panthers. The Bears pulled a huge upset versus the out-of-synch Colts, but are they for real?  Likewise, the Panthers played footsie with a Bolts team that has several issues, before an unlikely photo finish to end that game.  Matt Forte is running with passion, and the Bears' D looks like they're playing with a dose of that same passion.  Why the Bears haven't called a gunslinger like Culpepper to take their QB play up a notch is beyond me.  Meanwhile, the Panthers' standard operating procedure for some time now has been to win games they should lose and lose games they should win.  No Steve Smith this week, again.  I'll say this game comes down to the running game and run D, and Chicago wins a close one.

USA Today says: 7/8 for the Panthers.

Finny says:  Bears 20, Panthers 14.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year, the Jags looked like they were getting close.  In the opener, what they were apparently getting close to was the edge of the cliff.  What happened to the running game?  Garrard didn't do much, either.  And now they face a zippy little Bills team that, well, are they as good as they looked in week 1?  They have the Jags' Stroud on their DL this year, and they seem to have balance on D, on O, and have a pretty good ST.  Maybe Trent Edwards is this year's David Garrard.

USA Today says: 5/8 for Jacksonville.

Finny says:  I've been pretty high on the now-healthy Bills to be the surprise AFCE winner, and maybe one of the better teams no one is talking about.  Jags in an early hole?  They lost wo IOL, and Garrard was sacked relentlessly last week.  Bills 24, Jaguars 17.  Upset of the Week.  

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Minnesota Vikings. Suddenly, the Colts are in a must-win just like the Jaguars.  Peyton was channeling Eli in the loss to the Bears, and the Colts D let Forte run wild.  Uh oh.  Don't the Vikings have some guy they call Purple Jesus?  The Vikings were the sexy pick to win the NFCN and maybe be a Super Bowl contender, but their defense didn't play as advertised against Aaron Rodgers, and Tavaris Jackson can't get jack going as a QB.  At home, I like their D and run game to send the Colts reeling, despite some last-minute theatrics from Manning.

USA Today says: 6/8 go Colts.

Finny says: Vikings 24, Colts 20.

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Washington Redskins. So is this the Saints team of 2006, or 2007?  I still find their D suspect, and Clinton Portis may eat up some serious yardage.  The Redskins are an even bigger enigma.  Jim Zorn's gameplan was apparently to utilize some Tristan Tzara trick and put plays in a hat, and randomly assemble them on the field.  Just when you thought Jason Campbell was ready to be a competent leader of the Skins O, he falls apart.  I think the Skins are better than they showed, but can they put it all together?  

USA Today:  8/8 Saints, 1 lock of the week.

Finny says:  I'm still leery of the Saints.  Without Colston, Brees should still be able to spread the wealth, but if the Skins go to a ball control kind of game, tehy might bounce back.  Redskins 17, Saints 14.

San Diego Chargers (-2) at Denver Broncos.  Are the Chargers really just going to be a plodder team, as they seemed to be against the Panthers?  Are the Broncos back with a vengeance?  Well, the Chargers are easing a gimpy Antonio Gates back, have Marcus McNeill hurting, Shawne Merriman out...And meanwhile, the Broncos played, well, the Al Davis NFL Graveyarders.  I dunno, smells like another slow start to the season for the Bolts, but this time, who knows if they can overcome it?

USA Today says:  5/8 for the Chargers.

Finny says:  Good QB duel here.  Broncos 31, Chargers 24.

New England Cheatriots (+2) at NY Jets. Aside from the Brady/Favre factors, the Patriots lost their secondary, and have an aging front 7.  To wit: their starting DBs are Terrence Wheatley (rookie), Ellis Hobbs, Dirty Harrison, and James Sanders.  Starting alongside rookie Jerod Mayo are three LBs whose average age is 33.  The Jets, meanwhile, edged out the Dolphins on some Favre pyrotechnics, but that's sort of damning by faint praise.  I don't think the Jets with Favre are quite the upstart team the media makes them out to be; what we have here are two fair-to-middlin' teams, it seems, but again, we won't have a good handle on either for a few weeks.

USA Today says: 3/8 select the Jets; 1 lock for the Jets.

Finny says:  The Twilight Zone game of the week.  Expect Rod Serling on the sidelines for the Cheating Bastards in a rat-gnawed hoodie.  Jets 21, Patriots 14.

Atlanta Falcons (+8) at Tampa Bay Bucs.  Bucs D didn't look as stout as the 2007 model, and couldn't generate much passing.  Maybe that's what's behind Gruden playing QB carousel and turning the keys over to... uh oh... Brian Griese.  Any time a coach does this, you think you're going to get some high-powered passing attack, but in reality you're just slipping into madness.  Yes, Brian Griese is madness.  Trusting him is like trusting some drunk guy to drive your grandma to the store for some bread.  He'll get you there really fast, but...  Meanwhile, two rookie coaches won games last week with rookie QBs.  That doesn't seem likely to happen again this week, especially as bad as Atlanta looked last year. Bucs have a more balanced offense, and are playing at home.  But Atlanta may actually be fun to watch.  Or maybe not.  Welcome to the Twilight Zone.

USA Today says:  7/8 for the Bucs.

Finny says:  Bucs 30, Falcons 27.

The Monday Night Showdown


This really looks like the quality game of the week.  Otherwise, week 2 is a lot of dogshit, and weird shit, and teams kicking the shit out of other teams.  But two quality teams going head-to-head?  This is about it.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Dallas Cowboys. Eagles are without starting receiver Kevin Curtis, and Reggie Brown has a gimp hammy.  No problem!  McNabb had fun finding eight different targets anyway, including lightning in a bottle pipsqueak DeSean Jackson out of Cal (6 catches, 106 yards).  The Eagles D never let the Rams get off the mat, and should slow down the Cowboys somewhat.  But both offenses are high-octane, and the Cowboys O looks like they're in midseason form right out of the gates.  Jason Witten and Terrell Owens give Romo a potent passing attack; cover them, and Patrick Crayton's numbers add up.  The rushing game is improved from last year, with Felix Jones an upgrade over Julius Jones, Marion Barber looking more assertive, and their other rookie Tashard Choice picking up solid yards as well.  

If Dallas has the edge in offense, I give the Eagles the edge on D.  Their front 7 is OK, but not elite, and their secondary can be beaten.  They play well enough together to allow Romo to outgun most teams, but against elite teams they can be exposed.  The Eagles front 7 is about as good as the 'Boys, but I like their secondary better.  

That all makes the line on this game look way too big, IMO.  More of a homefield spread (3-4) would make sense.  At the very least, I like the Eagles versus the spread.  But can they win outright?

USA Today says: 8/8 for Cowboys.

Finny says:  This game should be a great division showdown, and my guess is that it gets decided by special teams.  With the explosive DeSean Jackson getting almost 100 yards in punt returns last week (including a 60-yarder), I'll go with the Iggles for the upset.  Eagles 31, Cowboys 28.


Yeah, a lot of upsets, straight up and ATS.  But what the hell is week 2 all about?
« Last Edit: Sep 12, 2008 at 11:17 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Sep 12, 2008 at 14:53 »

Alright!  A shitty pick thread.  We need PittPA and his Fuck! threads back too.

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs. - Don't see the Raiders winning on the road.  Maybe they cover though.  Chiefs.

San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks. - Seattle has no business giving anybody a TD+.  Niners.

Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals. - I've got nothing.  Dolphins.

Baltimore Ravens (+5) at Houston Texans. - Bad as the Ravens are, Texans might be worse.  Ravens.

Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals. - Titans are getting points??  May bet this one.

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit Lions. - Another line that's too low.  May bet this one too.  Packers.

New York Giants (-8) at St. Louis Rams. - Rams aren't as bad as they looked last week and Giants aren't as good as many think.  Too many points to give on the road to a team in their opener.  Rams.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns. - It's the Browns.  Stillers.

Chicago Bears (+3) at Carolina Panthers. - As long as Delhomme is healthy, this team will make some noise.  Panthers.

Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars. - Definitely a WTF spread here.  Buffalo looked very good and Jacksonville is missing like, 48 starters.  *sniff...sniff*  Trap game methinks, but I'm still going Buffalo.  'Prolly bet this one too.

Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Minnesota Vikings. - I like the Colts to get back on track big here.  Colts.  May bet this one.

New Orleans Saints (-1) at Washington Redskins. - See Steelers/Browns reasoning.  Saints.

San Diego Chargers (-2) at Denver Broncos. - Yet another WTF spread and likely trap game, but I think Sandy Eggo struggles in the mountains.  Broncs.

New England Cheatriots (+2) at NY Jets. - Pssshhhhh.  Fuckin' Jets easy (hoping that's not a jinx).

Atlanta Falcons (+8) at Tampa Bay Bucs. - Not sure about either of these teams so I'll just take the points.  Falcons.

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Dallas Cowboys. - Simpson in attendance, but out of sight.  Eagles at least cover.
« Last Edit: Sep 12, 2008 at 14:54 by aj_law » Logged

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 15, 2008 at 10:45 »

Picks were pretty much right on, except the Bears and Vikes shitting the bed after dominating, and the Steelers playing in the remnants of Hurricane 24.
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aj_law
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 15, 2008 at 11:30 »

Yeah, good week for me too.  As a whole, mine weren't all that great, but the four I really liked (Titans/Bengals, Pack/Lions, Colts/Vikes and Bills/Jags) alllllllll covered.

Sweet.

Unfortunately, I only rolled with 3; the Pack, Colts and Bills.  Can't complain though.

Pack was also my Survivor league pick so I'm still alive there.

I so want to ride the 'mo and ride the Eagles tonight, but...
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 15, 2008 at 11:32 »

Quote
I so want to ride the 'mo...
333%.
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aj_law
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« Reply #5 on: Sep 15, 2008 at 11:34 »

Quote
Quote
I so want to ride the 'mo...
333%.
What?  No Maurice Clarett joke??  I give you a layup like that and you brick it off the bottom of the backboard???

You're slipping.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #6 on: Sep 15, 2008 at 11:49 »

Quote
Quote
Quote
I so want to ride the 'mo...
333%.
What?  No Maurice Clarett joke??  I give you a layup like that and you brick it off the bottom of the backboard???

You're slipping.
Maurice Clarett jokes went the way of Sean Morey jokes and cans labeled "peanuts" with springy snakes in 'em.

Get the fuck up to speed, old man.
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pensodyssey
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« Reply #7 on: Sep 15, 2008 at 12:04 »

*Mo Sizlak voice*

Ow!  I'm not supposed to get spring in my eye!
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« Reply #8 on: Sep 17, 2008 at 11:51 »

Oakland Raiders (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs.

Finny says: Raiders 24, Chiefs 21.


Actual: Raiders 23, Chiefs 8.  (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread.)

Got the Raiders about right, but over-estimated the Chiefs O, if that is even possible.


San Francisco 49ers (+7.5) at Seattle Seahawks. Seahawks

Finny says: Seahawks 17, 49ers 13.


Actual: 49ers 33, Seahawks 30.  (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS.)

Smelled a possible upset, but incorrectly guessed the Seahawks' home advantage would prevail.



Miami Dolphins (+6.5) at Arizona Cardinals.

Finny says: Cards 27, Dolphins 14.


Actual: Cards 31, Dolphins 10.  (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS.)

Pretty close on this one's dynamic.



Tennessee Titans (+1.5) at Cincinnati Bengals.

Finny says: Titans 24, Bengals 10.


Actual: Titans 24, Bengals 7.  (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS.)

Again, pretty much called that one.



Green Bay (-3) at Detroit Lions.

Finny says: Packers 31, Lions 21.


Actual:  Packers 48, Lions 25.  (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS.)

Couldn't believe when the Lions came back from being down 21-0 to take a 25-24 lead.  Then the wheels fell off.  Pack scored every other minute it seemed.  



New York Giants (-8) at St. Louis Rams.

Finny says: Giants 34, Rams 6. Lock of the Week I.


Actual: Giants 41, Rams 13.  (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS, 1-0 LOW.)

Another one that was pretty easy to call, even though the Giants started slow.



Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns.

Finny says: Steelers 35, Browns 10. Lock of the Week II.


Actual: Steelers 10, Browns 6.  (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS, 1-1 LOW.)

Who knew we'd be playing that slop?



Chicago Bears (+3) at Carolina Panthers.

Finny says: Bears 20, Panthers 14.


Actual: Panthers 20, Bears 17.  (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS, 1-1 LOW.)

Bears dominated, but Panther's last-minute heroics again win out.  Close to a nice upset pick here.



Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars.

Finny says:  Bills 24, Jaguars 17. Upset of the Week.


Actual: Bills 20, Jags 16.  (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW.)

Again, called this.  Pay attention to the Bills.



Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Minnesota Vikings.

Finny says: Vikings 24, Colts 20.


Actual:  Colts 18, Vikings 15.  (7-3 SU, 7-3 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW).

Same shit as the Bears game.  So close.




New Orleans Saints (-1) at Washington Redskins.

Finny says:  Redskins 17, Saints 14.


Actual: Redskins 29, Saints 24.  (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW.)

I don't think anyone was picking the Skins.  Pregame, the experts were calling Nawlins a Super Bowl contender.



San Diego Chargers (-2) at Denver Broncos.

Finny says: Broncos 31, Chargers 24.


Actual: Broncos 39, Chargers 38.  (9-3 SU, 9-3 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW.)


Closer than I thought; tough break for the Bolts.



New England Cheatriots (+2) at NY Jets.

Finny says:  Jets 21, Patriots 14.


Acutal: Patriots 19, Jets 10.  (9-4 SU, 9-4 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW.)

Hmmm.  Might have switched Pats and Jets in my mental rankings out of bias.  Jets are pretty bad.



Atlanta Falcons (+8) at Tampa Bay Bucs.

Finny says: Bucs 30, Falcons 27.


Actual: Bucs 24, Falcons 9.  (10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW.)

Falcons exposed really says how awful the Lions are.



Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at Dallas Cowboys.

Finny says: Eagles 31, Cowboys 28.


Actual: Cowboys 41, Eagles 37.  (10-5 SU, 10-5 ATS, 1-1 LOW, 1-0 UOW.)

Eagles certainly had their chance to win this.  
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