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Author Topic: Predict the Election: Electoral Vote  (Read 3270 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Oct 28, 2008 at 13:00 »

Here's the deal.  Predict how many electoral votes Obama and McCain each get, person closest wins an XL men's black Roethlisberger T (a la Jack Daniels bottle style).  I got an extra one over the weekend by mistake.

For the tie-breaker option, you can list which states go to which candidate, but it's not necessary.

Say you guess McCain 280, Obama 258 and the result is McCain 285, Obama 253, you score 5 points.  (Off by 5 on each candidate.)  Lowest score wins.  Remember, there is a total of 538 electoral votes.

This offer null and void if I think you're a jackass or for any other reason of my choosing. 
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otismalibu
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« Reply #1 on: Oct 28, 2008 at 13:10 »

If someone nails it, they get a shmancy dinner jacket that smells of Newt & homemade cider.

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pensodyssey
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« Reply #2 on: Oct 28, 2008 at 13:20 »

I think Obama wins by a few more than are necessary.  He gets 293, McCain goes for 245.

You should make this like the Showcase Showdown.  The person who comes closest without going over.  Makes sense, the dinner jacket looks like something Drew Carey would wear. 
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« Reply #3 on: Oct 28, 2008 at 13:36 »

I'll go with the Obama landslide 313 to 225.

I forget though.  Are the electoral votes winner-take-all or proportional or is it per state?  You'd think after the 2000 election a person would remember that.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #4 on: Oct 28, 2008 at 15:30 »

Electoral votes are winner take all, by state. 

You're thinking of primaries, where the Democrats have some states that are proportionate.
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jonzr
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« Reply #5 on: Oct 28, 2008 at 16:40 »

In that case make it 312.5 to 225.5.
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #6 on: Oct 28, 2008 at 18:09 »

Actually, Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes by congressional district. Obama has an office open in Omaha, in hopes of stealing the 1 electoral vote for winning the district, which is mostly urban Omaha. That 1 vote could break a 269-269 tie that is theoretically possible. Neither state has ever split their  votes, so expect a huge legal battle if it gets to that.

I am cautiously optimistic about an Obama victory. I will go with something crazy like Obama-338 McCain- 200.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #7 on: Oct 29, 2008 at 13:19 »

Actually, Maine and Nebraska award their electoral votes by congressional district. Obama has an office open in Omaha, in hopes of stealing the 1 electoral vote for winning the district, which is mostly urban Omaha. That 1 vote could break a 269-269 tie that is theoretically possible. Neither state has ever split their  votes, so expect a huge legal battle if it gets to that.

I am cautiously optimistic about an Obama victory. I will go with something crazy like Obama-338 McCain- 200.

You fucking douche.

I was looking over the electoral map and was going to predict 338-200 yesterday.  Now I have to put a swing state in play just to be different.

Didn't know that about Maine and Nebraska. 
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #8 on: Oct 30, 2008 at 12:23 »

Sorry Finny... If it makes you feel better, if I nail it, I will send you $37 for the T.
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jonzr
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« Reply #9 on: Oct 30, 2008 at 12:47 »

Crap, projections are now 344 - 167 with some obviously undecided or too close to call?

Thought I was going out on a limb with 313 - 225 (which may not even be feasible, was just guessing #'s and not picking per state).
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« Reply #10 on: Oct 31, 2008 at 08:52 »

Obama 353 Mccain 185
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« Reply #11 on: Oct 31, 2008 at 09:55 »

OK, I've parsed a few scenarios.  First scenario came up with SteelerfaninCO's count, second came up with the Emperor's.  So I'll throw Missouri into the mix, despite my gut feeling that late Repub push there drives the state red.  It may be the closest contest nationally, and I have a feeling they'll be settling that one after the election is called.

Barack Obama - 364

CA (55), CO (9), CT (7), DC (3), DE (3), FL (27), HI (4), IA (7), IL (21), MA (12), MD (10), ME (4), MI (17), MN (10), MO (11), NC (15), NH (4), NJ (15), NM (5), NY (31), NV (5), OH (20), OR (7), PA (21), RI (4), VA (13), VT (3), WA (11), WI (10).

John McCain - 174

AK (3), AL (9), AR (6), AZ (10), GA (15), ID (4), IN (11), KS (6), KY (Cool, LA (9), MS (6), MT (3), ND (3), NE (5), OK (7), SC (Cool, SD (3), TN (11), TX (34), UT (5), WV (5), WY (3).

A few months ago, I would have thought Obama might win PA but lose FL and OH.  I never thought he would have a shot at NC.  And I was dubious about VA.  He could have a shot at IN, but I don't think he wins that.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #12 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 09:17 »

I'm locking in the predictions later tonight.  Last chance to revise or put in your prediction...

Pensod - Obama, 293-245
Jonzr - Obama, 312.5-225.5
SFinCO - Obama 338-200
Finny - Obama 364-174

Come on, where's the McCain optimists who think he can turn it around?

Absolutely free Big Ben T-shirt on the line here, folks! 
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« Reply #13 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 12:10 »

Obama wins 300-328
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« Reply #14 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 12:31 »

Obama: 353-185.
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« Reply #15 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 16:18 »

Obama 333
McCain 205
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #16 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 18:01 »

This will be locked in post-game.  So far:

Pensod - Obama, 293-245
Jonzr - Obama, 312.5-225.5
SFinCO - Obama 338-200
Finny - Obama 364-174
Jcharding - Obama 353-185
Burghboi - Obama 300-*228
Leighclay - Obama 333-205

*Burghboi originally posted Obama would win 300-328, which I believe was a typo.  I've corrected the McCain electoral tally to 228.

Still time to win a lovely Big Ben T-shirt, folks.  Or possibly the shmancey dinner jacket, redolent of a past Speaker, if he had gotten into the cider. 
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give'emthaboot
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« Reply #17 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 21:37 »

Obama 308, McCain 230
« Last Edit: Nov 03, 2008 at 21:42 by give'emthaboot » Logged

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pensodyssey
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« Reply #18 on: Nov 03, 2008 at 23:50 »

Or possibly the shmancey dinner jacket, redolent of a past Speaker, if he had gotten into the cider. 

Finny has to get rid of it, or the authorities will come looking for him.  Seems its been disrupting radar patterns in the Harrisburg area.
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vinman3
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« Reply #19 on: Nov 04, 2008 at 07:06 »

Prediction? You want a prediction?

My prediction......Pain.

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« Reply #20 on: Nov 04, 2008 at 22:47 »

Hell, it's looking like Finny may win his own contest.
I'm calling fraud.
Who counted the chads???
 tickedoff
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #21 on: Nov 04, 2008 at 23:54 »

He has been on 338, my number for a while now. Don't expect it to last though. I bet he pulls NC.
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jonzr
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« Reply #22 on: Nov 05, 2008 at 09:05 »

If IN and NC hold that'll put the total to 364.  And MO, out of more that 2.8 million votes is less than 6K in favor of McCain.

Damn finny, you had to nail every state you picked.  Bastard never intended to mail that shirt out!


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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #23 on: Nov 05, 2008 at 09:15 »

If IN and NC hold that'll put the total to 364.  And MO, out of more that 2.8 million votes is less than 6K in favor of McCain.

Damn finny, you had to nail every state you picked.  Bastard never intended to mail that shirt out!



LOL, actually I flip-flopped MO and IN, but they have 11 electoral votes each.  Would be ironic if I won it  Should I award the shirt to the runner-up, or have another contest?
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jonzr
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« Reply #24 on: Nov 05, 2008 at 09:21 »

What are the odds of that?  Flip/flop on states with the same #'s?  Weird.

As for the contest - whatever you decide to do, ie, either one sounds good to me.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #25 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 09:51 »

OK, here's the deal.  Someone not named Finny is winning this shirt.  As it looks now, MO is leaning Mac, and NC is leaning Bama, which would favor jcharding.  If Both go Bama, jcharding wins again.  If both go Mac, SFinCO wins.

If they don't have this count done by Friday, it's gonna be a week late in getting shipped.  I'll email the winner for shipping addy.

Oh, and did I mention the part where you have to send a money order to a Nigerian address, to cover shipping...?
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vinman3
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« Reply #26 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 09:57 »

OK, here's the deal.  Someone not named Finny is winning this shirt.  As it looks now, MO is leaning Mac, and NC is leaning Bama, which would favor jcharding.  If Both go Bama, jcharding wins again.  If both go Mac, SFinCO wins.

If they don't have this count done by Friday, it's gonna be a week late in getting shipped.  I'll email the winner for shipping addy.

Oh, and did I mention the part where you have to send a money order to a Nigerian address, to cover shipping...?
Wouldn't it just be easier if they gave you electronic access to their checking. Saves time and all.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #27 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 10:16 »

OK, here's the deal.  Someone not named Finny is winning this shirt.  As it looks now, MO is leaning Mac, and NC is leaning Bama, which would favor jcharding.  If Both go Bama, jcharding wins again.  If both go Mac, SFinCO wins.

If they don't have this count done by Friday, it's gonna be a week late in getting shipped.  I'll email the winner for shipping addy.

Oh, and did I mention the part where you have to send a money order to a Nigerian address, to cover shipping...?
Wouldn't it just be easier if they gave you electronic access to their checking. Saves time and all.

That there's some good thinking.  How about BOTH you guys go ahead and hook me up with that.  It'll save time when I determine the winner.
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Big Virgil
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« Reply #28 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 12:42 »

My prediction woudl have been:  Ditka 530 Obama 8.  If there were 11 miniature ditka's running around, Ditka wins 537 - 1.
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« Reply #29 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 13:52 »

NC went to Obama, so I think that gives it to Jcharding regardless of MS. Do you still want my bank acct # Finny? I can give my PIN if it makes it easier. Although I am still waiting to hear from the exiled Nigerian prince I helped free last week.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #30 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 14:16 »

NC went to Obama, so I think that gives it to Jcharding regardless of MS. Do you still want my bank acct # Finny? I can give my PIN if it makes it easier. Although I am still waiting to hear from the exiled Nigerian prince I helped free last week.

Right you are.  NC has been called, making it 364-163, with 11 undecided (MO).

In case there's a recount, you'd better give me that PIN and account number. 
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« Reply #31 on: Nov 06, 2008 at 19:56 »

I had the same prediction as Jcharding WAS SUP?
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Big Virgil
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« Reply #32 on: Nov 07, 2008 at 09:41 »

I think that prince thing might be a scam.  I gave him all of my info about a month ago.  I thought he'd be free by now.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #33 on: Nov 07, 2008 at 11:15 »

I had the same prediction as Jcharding WAS SUP?

Crap.  I missed your post.

Since you posted it first, I gotta give it to you.

Sorry jcharding.

My apologies for the oversight.  Email me your name and addy and I'll get it out to you ASAP.
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