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Author Topic: Eliminator final week  (Read 960 times)
msdmnr2002
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« on: Dec 22, 2008 at 11:37 »

And I've actually got a real shot at winning the ESPN challenge.  Around 1300 left standing with a few to get knocked out tonight.  Tiebreaker is highest point total for team you selected in week 17, then working backwards.  I had the Pats in week 16, which is first this week barring a huge point outburst tonight (only about 3.5% picked them).  Week 15 Indy tied with Jets for 3rd most, but first is NE again, so those guys are out because they can't have NE in week 16, leaving me behind a combo of Minny/NE in weeks 15/16 (has to be darn few of them - only1.35% picked Minny).

So, I have to pick the winner, but also hit the highest point total.  Tough week, because you have to run the gauntlet of teams resting starters, teams who have mailed it in, weather affecting point totals, etc.

Here's what I've got left to choose from, with comments:

Possibilities:
ARI vs. SEA (will they mail it in,or try to get O back in gear after NE debacle?)
GB vs. DET (scared of this one,but...)
MIN vs. NYG (! more on this later)
WAS @ SF
SF vs WAS (if they're both on this list, probably means I need to eliminate both, but I wanted some options)





No way I'm hanging my season on these guys:
St. Louis (@ ATL)
KC @ CIN
CIN vs. KC
OAK @ TB
HOU@CHI
SEA@ARI
DET @ GB
NYJ @ MIA (Jets are just too flaky, although it's not West Coast...)
CLE@ PIT
JAX @ BAL
DEN @ SD

Minny vs. Giants is intriguing.  Minny, desperate, Giants have nothing to play for (although according to Strahan, Coughlin isn't into that resting starters thing), and, strategically it makes sense because IF Minny wins, and IF they happen to get highest point total, that would put me ahead of the aforementioned Minny/NE combos.  Only 0.33% have Minny this week, so I'd likely win (odds of someone else matching me back 3 weeks - about 1 in 30,000 with likely less than 1000 entries alive).  Arizona is a possibility, and GB was my original pick simply for the win - will they generate a ton of points at Lambeau in December?

Course, this all may be moot at a team I've already used will likely get high total, or, since I've made my success to this point public, I've screwed myself.  Not to mention, I'm not a big car guy so grand prize isn't a huge deal for me (one of those driving experience things).  The authentic Steelers helmet/jersey/football would be cool, though (grand, 2nd and 3rd prize).  The future fame, fortune, and endorsments would make it worthwhile, though.
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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Dec 22, 2008 at 14:14 »

Why isn't CLE @ PIT an option?

Even with Pittsburgh starting the JV squad, I just don't see Cleveland winning.

Please don't make a decision based on my advice though.

EDIT:  Nevermind.  Read that quickly.

GB looks like the best choice.  KC, maybe?
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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #2 on: Dec 22, 2008 at 14:36 »

Considered KC, but I just don't trust them on the road.  Cincy may rise up and win that one.

I'm thinking GB too.
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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #3 on: Jan 02, 2009 at 18:19 »

Well, got to 17-0 with the Pack, but didn't have enough points to make tiebreaker.  Didn't make top 50 after Chargers/Eagles/Cards all topped 31 points.  Only way I could have improved was to take the Cards, which was an option - would have put me somewhere between 33 and 35 overall.  As it stands, didn't crack top 50, but must have been in top 100 based on percentages of ppl who picked top pointgetters.  (31 points in week 17 tied for 47th, then work back from there on week 16, etc.).  Not too bad.

relatively large number went undefeated - over 1100.  Must have been fewer upsets this year. 
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