Maximum Grilled Steelers Forum
Jul 28, 2014 at 08:01 *
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.

Login with username, password and session length
 
  Home   Forum   Help Calendar Media Login Register  
Pages: [1]   Go Down
  Print  
Author Topic: Divisional Playoff Picks  (Read 792 times)
aj_law
Global Moderator
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 5532
Offline Offline

Posts: 14,976


« on: Jan 07, 2009 at 12:22 »

I haven't posted any of my picks this year and not coincidentally, I've had a pretty good year.  So, what should I do for the last three weeks of the season?  Post my picks to jinx myself, of course.

Anyway, here's who I like, in order:

(Best Bet) Titans (-3) - I really, really like this pick.  Baltimore has been fortunate that they haven't had to rely on their offense to get it done.  Well, they will this week and I don't see it happening on the road against a solid, rested Tennessee defense.  The Titans offense does enough to win this battle and Baltimore doesn't see the EZ all day.  I think you're much more likely to see a score from the defense than the offense, but I don't think it happens at all this week.  Something like 17-6, 20-9, 23-9...in that neighborhood.

(2) Eagles (+4) - These intra-divisional games always seem to finish with single digit margins so I tend to favor the team that's getting points; especially if it's more than a FG.  With both teams not really having a downfield threat, I expect both of them to patiently attack the opposing defense; Philly, with their dinking and dunking and NY, with their monster ground game.  It feels like a close battle with the winner coming on a FG in the waning minutes or maybe even OT.  I like 24-21, 23-20, 26-23 either way here.

(3) Steelers (-6) ---> *Homer pick alert*  The only thing that might throw this pick off is if Ben is banged up more than he's let on.  Historically, he tries to tough out playing in games where he's nicked or banged up and he generally doesn't do well in those matchups.  Add to that the fact that he's played the year at < 100% and it's really impacted his production.  While he didn't practice last week, he's back on the field this week so hopefully that gives him enough time to work with the O to get in sync.  Now, if Arians can just pull a decent gameplan out of his ass, they'll be set.  Even with their ineptness at OC, I think they do a better job of getting in the EZ this week and I just don't see the Chargers coming East as banged up as they are and stealin' one against this defense.  IMO, Sproles' effectiveness will be severely hampered on a slippery track in the bitter cold.  I like Pittsburgh here to the tune of 24-13, 26-16...

(4) Panthers (-10) - I literally flipped a coin in this one.  I think 10 points is an awful lot to give to any playoff team; especially one with some offensive firepower like Arizona.  Even without a healthy Boldin, I could see Arizona keeping this one close and maybe even getting a backdoor cover.  However, Carolina is rested, unbeaten at home and the Cards are 0 fer on the road coming East.  Also, don't see the Cards being able to stymie another monster running game.  If they sell out to stop it, the Panthers make 'em pay over the top and Delhomme to Smith is a recurring theme.  For shits and giggles, I'll say Panthers win big in a game that isn't as close as the score indicates, 31-20.

I also like the over (40.5) in the Eagles @ Giants provided the weather doesn't get nasty.

FTR, I probably won't bet anything beyond the (1) pick.  Maybe the Eagles or the over in that game, but that's it.  I wouldn't touch (3) or (4) unless I'm feeling feisty/bored and I'm 1-0 or 2-0 going into Sunday night.

Also, it should be noted that I went 4-0 in game picks last week which means I'm much more likely to go 0-4 this week to even things out.  I'm obv no expert (duh) and this is just for fun (duh).

My $0.02.
Logged

We suck because our drafts have been THE SUCK.
dare2beme
Member
***

Karma: 803
Offline Offline

Posts: 395



« Reply #1 on: Jan 07, 2009 at 14:17 »

AJ, could you keep your posts to 2 short paragraphs or less, please?  Any more than that and I keep losing my place when I get distracted by your avatar.

 smitten
Logged

If you ain't a Steeler fan, you're just a Jag-off...especially here in Jacksonburgh, FL!
aj_law
Global Moderator
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 5532
Offline Offline

Posts: 14,976


« Reply #2 on: Jan 07, 2009 at 15:15 »

Totally forgot about it.  I had to turn 'em off because I frequent this place at work.  It's actually 'bout time I update it.  Gotta keep those budonkadunks fresh.
Logged

We suck because our drafts have been THE SUCK.
msdmnr2002
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 2837
Offline Offline

Posts: 2,614



WWW
« Reply #3 on: Jan 07, 2009 at 16:51 »

Quote
AJ, could you keep your posts to 2 short paragraphs or less, please?  Any more than that and I keep losing my place when I get distracted by your avatar.

Every time, I keep watching hoping against hope it will run a little longer.  Cuts off just as she's into the full bendover stage.
Logged
jonzr
Asst. VP, Jonzring
Global Moderator
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 11361
Offline Offline

Posts: 11,395


Have a cup o' joe.


WWW
« Reply #4 on: Jan 07, 2009 at 18:53 »

I like all the home teams this time around.  As for the avatar, you've set a certain standard which must be upheld.
Logged

"I like David Bowie, he was always my favorite member of Tin Machine."
- Rodney Anonymous

It's a Steeler Nation
Steelerdipwad
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 3673
Offline Offline

Posts: 1,656



« Reply #5 on: Jan 09, 2009 at 12:01 »

I suck at predictions. Lost my psychic powers a couple years ago. But here goes. Since the league started giving teams a bye for the wild card week, the team with the bye has won 65 out of 86 games (.756). I like that figure. It makes sense to me. One team out of the four home teams loses on average. Of course, last year it was 2, but I'll stick with probability, and say that one home team will lose this week.

It's not gonna be Carolina IMO. That leaves the other three.

I was leaning toward the Ravens going into Tennessee, but I've changed my mind. Tennessee is really well coached, they don't make mistakes on either side of the ball, and they are just better than the Ravens. And the Ravens have a rookie QB. I'll take the Titans in that one.

I don't see the Steelers losing to the Bolts. Sue me for overconfidence and feed me crow if we lose, but I don't think the Bolts have what it takes to beat a nasty, hungry, angry team like the Steelers.

So, the Eagles are my pick to pull off the upset. Honestly, I could see this being a tie and them playing twenty overtimes to settle the damn thing. But someone has to win, and I'll take McNabb over Eli any day of the week when Eli doesn't have the Plax crutch.

Edit: Shit, they just announced Shawn Andrews is out for the Eagles. That o-line blows when he's not in there. I'm changing my mind on the Giants gae and going with the Giants. That leaves me without any upsets. Why does that leave me a little queasy? We're the next most logical favorite to take the dive.
« Last Edit: Jan 09, 2009 at 13:25 by Steelerdipwad » Logged

"Fanatics are picturesque. Mankind would rather see gestures than listen to reason." - Friederich Nietzsche
msdmnr2002
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 2837
Offline Offline

Posts: 2,614



WWW
« Reply #6 on: Jan 09, 2009 at 14:42 »

Quote
That leaves me without any upsets. Why does that leave me a little queasy? We're the next most logical favorite to take the dive.

If you've got to have one, I think the Ravens would be more likely to win that SD.  But talk about angry, that will be one pissed off Tennessee team.
Logged
aj_law
Global Moderator
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 5532
Offline Offline

Posts: 14,976


« Reply #7 on: Jan 10, 2009 at 10:29 »


(4) Panthers (-10) - I literally flipped a coin in this one.  I think 10 points is an awful lot to give to any playoff team; especially one with some offensive firepower like Arizona.  Even without a healthy Boldin, I could see Arizona keeping this one close and maybe even getting a backdoor cover.  However, Carolina is rested, unbeaten at home and the Cards are 0 fer on the road coming East.  Also, don't see the Cards being able to stymie another monster running game.  If they sell out to stop it, the Panthers make 'em pay over the top and Delhomme to Smith is a recurring theme.  For shits and giggles, I'll say Panthers win big in a game that isn't as close as the score indicates, 31-20.

I also like the over (40.5) in the Eagles @ Giants provided the weather doesn't get nasty.

FTR, I probably won't bet anything beyond the (1) pick.  Maybe the Eagles or the over in that game, but that's it.  I wouldn't touch (3) or (4) unless I'm feeling feisty/bored and I'm 1-0 or 2-0 going into Sunday night.

Also, it should be noted that I went 4-0 in game picks last week which means I'm much more likely to go 0-4 this week to even things out.  I'm obv no expert (duh) and this is just for fun (duh).

My $0.02.


I'm taking back my coin flip pick on Carolina.  Tired of hearing/reading everyone saying that the Cards have no chance.  Not saying that they'll win, but I now have a gut feeling they'll keep it within 10 points.  If Boldin can't go, Breaston is a solid fill in.  Initially, I fell into the trap of following the masses and believing that this one'll be a blowout.  Now, after watching a bunch of pre-game shows and doing a little reading on this matchup, I think these teams are closer than a lot of people are giving them credit for.  Seems like everybody's lookin' to pick one game that'll be a blowout this weekend, so they go with the most obvious choice and take the biggest favorite.  Well, I'm bucking the trend and taking the (+10) and rolling with the road dog here.
Logged

We suck because our drafts have been THE SUCK.
aj_law
Global Moderator
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 5532
Offline Offline

Posts: 14,976


« Reply #8 on: Jan 12, 2009 at 11:43 »

Well, the scores were kinda off, but the picks weren't.

3 out of 4 with my Best Bet shitting the bed.  LOL.  7-1 so far this postseason.
Logged

We suck because our drafts have been THE SUCK.
Steelerdipwad
Old School Member
*****

Karma: 3673
Offline Offline

Posts: 1,656



« Reply #9 on: Jan 12, 2009 at 13:20 »

Well, the scores were kinda off, but the picks weren't.

3 out of 4 with my Best Bet shitting the bed.  LOL.  7-1 so far this postseason.

That's a lot better than me. With my last minute about face in the Giants/Philly game, I went 1 for 4 (luckily, it was the RIGHT 1). And I went 2-2 the wild card week. Oh well. Don't quit your day job, right?
Logged

"Fanatics are picturesque. Mankind would rather see gestures than listen to reason." - Friederich Nietzsche
Pages: [1]   Go Up
  Print  
 
Jump to:  


Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines
SimplePortal 2.3.5 © 2008-2012, SimplePortal
| Sitemap
Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!