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Author Topic: Steelers vs Cards (how we stack up)  (Read 2716 times)
ben2hines4six
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« on: Jan 19, 2009 at 22:16 »

Hey guys, just a quick breakdown of the game and some early thoughts. Would love to hear everyone else's opinions and predictions as well.

QB- The Matchup: Ben vs Warner
The Verdict: EVEN. Ben for his intangibles and ability to keep the play alive, Warner for his dependability and quick release. Both have proven that they can produce in the big games (check out their playoff records, Ben is 7-2 and Kurt is 8-1, I believe)

HB- The Matchup: Parker and Moore vs. James and Hightower.
The Verdict: Advantage CARDS (slight advantage). The Cards' backs have been more productive for longer stretches, and appear to be overall healthier (Moore got dinged up a bit in our last game). Though Parker was extremely productive vs the Browns and the Chargers, I trust the run play calling and the consistency of the Cards backs a little bit more.

WR- The Matchup: Ward and Holmes and Washington vs. Fitzgerald and Boldin and Breaston
The Verdict: Advantage CARDS. Ward is dinged up (status up in the air) and so is Boldin. So it is Fitz and Breaston vs. Holmes and Washington. Got to go with the big play ability of Fitz in the Cards offense.

TE- The Matchup: Miller and Spaeth vs. Spach and Pope
The Verdict: Advantage STEELERS. We all know what Heath has to offer in the passing and running game, and Spaeth has proven capable when given the opportunity (especially as a pass catcher).

0-Line: The Matchup: Us vs. them (not naming all the players)
The Verdict: Advantage CARDS. I think we all know why.

D-Line: The Matchup: Kiesel and Smith and Hampton vs. Smith and Leboy and Dockett and Robinson
The Verdict: Advantage STEELERS. Although the D-line for the Cards has played better and been very productive in the playoffs, the Steeler D-line has the edge here. Also Leboy has a bicep issue going into this game.

LB- The Matchup: Harrison and Foote and Farrior and Woodley and Timmons vs. Okafor and Hayes and Dansby
The Verdict: Advantage STEELERS (big). So many big plays by this group, and the potential to make a game changing play at any moment. Steelers hold a noticeable edge here.

DB- The Matchup: Polamalu and Clark and Taylor and Mcfadden vs. Wilson and Rolle and Cromartie and Hood
The Verdict: Advantage STEELERS. Wilson and Cromartie are great players, but Cromartie is green and we may be able to get him to bite on a double move as he has a tendency to bite and go for the pick. Steelers have big play ability in Troy, and a slew of productive players and quality depth.

K- The Matchup: Reed vs. Rackers.
The Matchup: EVEN. Both are quality kickers.

P- The Matchup: Berger vs. Johnson.
The Matchup: Advantage CARDS. Don't know much about their punter, but I cannot see anyway he is worse then ours.

Coaching: The Matchup: Tomlin vs. Whisenhunt
The Verdict: EVEN (maybe slight advantage Cards). For the simple reason that he knows the Steelers well, and is able to call a game changing trick play at any moment. Whiz has also proven his ability to adjust strategy as required, something the Steelers staff lacks much of the time.

Intangibles: The Verdict: EVEN. Steelers are hungry for number six and have a lot of veteran leaders, the Cards have been impressive and would love to get their first title.



THE SCORE: Fitzgerald is a match-up nightmare, and Ward's injury is a cause for concern. Provided we can get something out of Hines and limit the big play of the Cards (and rattle Warner a little bit), I see us just edging out this game. Perhaps a 4th quarter drive led by Ben AGAIN. The Cards will score their share of points though, so the Offense better be ready to play. Final score - Steelers 27 Cards 23.






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Preacherman0
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« Reply #1 on: Jan 19, 2009 at 22:26 »

Good analysis, but do the matchups in a different way.  As in...our offensive line vs. their dline; their receivers vs. our DBs; etc.

Quote
I see us just edging out this game. Perhaps a 4th quarter drive led by Ben AGAIN. The Cards will score their share of points though, so the Offense better be ready to play. Final score - Steelers 27 Cards 23.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see it.  Or the opposite--Warner trying to lead a drive vs. our defense.  But you're absolutely right, our offense is going to have to step it up to win this game.  We left a good 13 points or more on the field Sunday, and that is eventually going to cost us, big-time.

I always feel like we are a half-step away from being a machine on offense.  IF Limus catches the ball...IF Holmes doesn't drop it at the goal-line...IF Willie gets one more yard and doesn't give Arians the chance to go empty set on 3rd and 1...IF Ben leads SanAntonio on the slant instead of getting it slightly behind him...

We need to pick up that extra half-step for XLIII.  If we get that, then we will have a chance to keep this from even being a game.  However, I am not hopeful that Arians can do it.  Maybe an extra week of Tomlin in his ear will get us doing what we did vs. the Chargers.
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ben2hines4six
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« Reply #2 on: Jan 19, 2009 at 22:35 »

Thought about that Preach, but it would be a bit more complicated.

For example, I would have to do Ben vs Dbs, Ben vs. Lbs, etc. Or RB's vs D-line and RB's vs LBs. Thought it was easier to just compare each unit as a separate entity.
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« Reply #3 on: Jan 19, 2009 at 22:50 »

Mostly agree... except for a couple of things,

I think the Steelers have the advantage at RB. When FWP isn't playing teams from Baltimore, he can be explosive. 'Zona doesn't have a game changing RB like FWP, nor a defense capable of shutting him down. James and Hightower are solid, but neither are a threat to take it to the hizzy. Who has the longest run in SB history?

I also wouldn't say Whisencunt has an advantage over Tomlin (*if you throw out BA). Both are 2nd year coaches, and sure Ken knows the Steeler personnel, but that goes both ways. LeBeau is familiar with Whiz's play calling tendencies, and if you remember, there was a lot of bitching about the play calling before the magic carpet ride of '05. Whiz basically has done the same thing he did for the '05 playoffs but in reverse. In '05, people thought he would run the ball, and he came out throwing. This year everyone thought they would throw it a ton, but he came out running the ball. They won't surprise anyone with their trick plays. Lebeau vs Whiz? I'm taking DL.

And lastly, I think the intangibles heavily favor Pittsburgh. The Steelers have 20 players on the roster with SB experience. The Cards counter with 5. The Steelers played a tough schedule and have been sharpened by the best teams in the league. The Cards play in the NFC West. They just haven't faced the competition Pittsburgh has, and I just don't think they have an idea about just how hard the Steelers hit and how physical they are. ........They are who we thought they were...
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ben2hines4six
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« Reply #4 on: Jan 19, 2009 at 22:59 »

Good points, steelerfaninCO.

Though I do agree Parker is a threat, I just feel currently the form of the Cards RB's is better. Also consider that James (along with Fred Taylor) is one of the only RB's that can give the Steelers fits.

For coaching, I should have elaborated that I meant to include the staff's as a whole. DL is a genius no doubt, but BA is an asshat. That kind of cancels the other out. I do basically feel the staffs are EVEN when considering it from all angles. Steelers DC is superior, Cards OC is superior, the HC's are pretty much even.

You may have successfully swayed my opinion about the intangibles, however. They have been playing a cake schedule all year, where as our competition has been tougher. They certainly have not faced a D like ours, but have we faced an O like theirs? Perhaps SD or Indy, but I feel at least on current form the Cards are much better. Plus, Warner (in the playoffs) has always scared me more then Philip Cry ME A Rivers or Peyton Manning.

Having said that, I probably do agree with you upon further consideration that the intangibles do favor the Steelers.
« Last Edit: Jan 19, 2009 at 23:01 by ben2hines4six » Logged
steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #5 on: Jan 19, 2009 at 23:56 »


Though I do agree Parker is a threat, I just feel currently the form of the Cards RB's is better. Also consider that James (along with Fred Taylor) is one of the only RB's that can give the Steelers fits.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this one. 'Zona rushed for an average of 73 yards a game this season, 30 yards fewer then the Steeler's less than stellar run game. Edge was their leading rusher with 514 yards. Its not like they have tore it up in the playoffs either, as James led the way with 73 yards against Philly, Hightower with 76 against Carolina, and James with 73 against the Falcons. They have just run more than people thought they would. Also, Edge isn't the same runner he was in '05(when he broke the 100 yard rusher streak for the D). Can he churn out 60-70 yards? Sure, but he's not going for 125 anymore, and more importantly the Steeler D can handle him without stacking the box. A luxury the Cards can't afford when defending Willie....Speaking of Willie, he put up 146 on Chargers, who probably have a better D than the Cards. Yes, he was stuffed by Balty, but BA decided to run at Ngata all night. Not a particularly smart move. Willie has the potential to out gain both James and Hightower combined, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him do it. People are talking about the Steeler D vs the 'Zona O, without thinking about the flip side. The Steeler offense could very well dominate the Cards D and it will start with Willie. If he can run effectively, the Cards D will have a very hard time defending play action......and I just believe the Stillers will have an easier time running the ball then 'Zona.
« Last Edit: Jan 20, 2009 at 00:01 by steelerfaninCO » Logged
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« Reply #6 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 00:30 »

.and I just believe the Stillers will have an easier time running the ball then 'Zona.

you got that right.  If a team doesnt have a top 10 run stopping D, the steelers will expose it heavily.  They averaged 130 yards on the ground against inferior run stopping teams.  the only exceptions to this were the Indy(24th) and dallas(12th) games.  parker sat out against indy, but played against dallas.

Zona was 15th against the run in the reg. season...
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« Reply #7 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 07:51 »

I think it was obvious in the Philly game that Edge has lost a step or two.  He can no doubt out run Big Snacks, but that's about it.
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« Reply #8 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 08:13 »

My power rankings math shit predicted the playoffs pretty well, 4-4 in the WC, 3-4 in the DP, and picking the Steelers over the Ravens.  (Had Panthers beating Cards, Eagles beating Panthers.)

One thing I found really interesting was the O and D unit breakouts.  In both cases, the Cards' O and D were rated just slightly lower than the final rankings for the Chargers.  So if you think of the Cards as a similar prep to the WC weekend, I can see us putting some points on the board and shutting these cards down.

I'm still gonna be nervous about some aspects -- Larry Fitz, Whiz going biz-nutty in the playoff playcalling, special teams gaffes, the loss last year to the Cards -- but all in all, we should match up pretty well here.
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« Reply #9 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 08:52 »

Another intangible: Tomlin wanting to prove to the Rooneys that they hired the correct guy; Whisenhunt want to prove to them they hired the wrong guy.

Advantage: The ever-so-disciplined Tomlin who, no doubt, approaches this game with his utmost professionalism (which, for a guy does this almost every single day, says a lot).
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« Reply #10 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:08 »

Great topic! I like the breakdown and more or less agree. I think it's really, really hard to evaluate the Cardinals because when you compare these two teams, you have to consider the competition they faced.

The Steelers played a far, far, incomparably more difficult schedule than the Cardinals faced.

During the regular season, the Cardinals went 6-0 against their division of cruddy teams. They wen 3-7 against everyone else. We all know that they were blown away by several good teams they faced.

That they've played so well in the regular season has been overshadowed by their very good play in the postseason. And rightly so. Maybe the Cards have suddenly gotten better.

But let's consider another interpretation. The teams the Cardinals beat in the postseason aren't all that good either. The beat two teams from the NFC South, and I think an argument can be made that the teams of the NFC South, like the teams from the AFC EAST, had their records inflated by playing a soft schedule. The NFC South played the AFC WEST and the NFC NORTH. The AFC West was one of the worst divisions in recent memory. And the NFC North was won by a pretty one-dimensional Vikings team. The Bears were no better than an average NFL team. And the Packers and Lions stunk.

The Eagles, for all their late-season heroics, were also barely over .500.

I realize that an argument could be made the Steelers benefitted from some very, very lucky seeding as well. We didn't have to play the Colts, Patriots, or Titans, and got instead an 8-8 division winner without their top RB and a good team with a rookie QB. But still: our regular season speaks for itself, unlike the Cardinals'.

Bottom line: I think there's a lot of hype around the Cardinals, and they do have some weapons, but they are basically an average to above-average NFL team.

The Steelers will win in a blowout.

To return to the topic of this thread for a minute, let's look at, not comparing units, but at looking at their competition. So:

1. Ben against the Cardinals pass defense vs. Warner against the Steelers pass defense.
Ben is going to have to be careful with the ball but he's also going to have to make some plays and convert some key third downs. The Steelers should be able to do this. One huge factor in the steelers's favor is that the Arizona pass rush has been very weak all season. Ben should have time to throw, and, even if he doesn't from the occasional blitz, he's going to be able to to his John Elway routine and make big plays. The Cardinals were torched by some good passing offenses with deep receiving corps this season, and this will be no exception.

ON the other side, Warner is obviously going to face a level of defensive play he hasn't seen all year. I was impressed with how they handled a very good Eagles defense but even the Philly defense is not in the class of a historically great Steelers' d. The difference between the steelers defense and the EAgles is that Pittsburgh can shut down the run, prevent the deep pass, and apply pressure on any given play without conceding the other elements. The Eagles had to guess; the Steelers don't have to. Warner will be pressured; the speed of the LBs and Polamalu will make the quick slants and outs very difficult for the Cardinals. The big play is something the Steelers have shut down this year, and, historically, Dick LeBeau's defenses are excellent at shutting down the other team's top receiver. To me, this all spells trouble for the Cardinals. A lot of trouble.

EDGE: Pittsburgh.

(I'll continue in another post)
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« Reply #11 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:09 »

Another intangible: Tomlin wanting to prove to the Rooneys that they hired the wrong guy; Whisenhunt want to prove to them they hired the wrong guy.

Advantage: The ever-so-disciplined Tomlin who, no doubt, approaches this game with his utmost professionalism (which, for a guy does this almost every single day, says a lot).

I think tomlin wants to prove to the Rooney's that they hired the right guy??  Just playing...I knew what you meant. clap
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« Reply #12 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:10 »

Another intangible: Tomlin wanting to prove to the Rooneys that they hired the wrong guy; Whisenhunt want to prove to them they hired the wrong guy.

Advantage: The ever-so-disciplined Tomlin who, no doubt, approaches this game with his utmost professionalism (which, for a guy does this almost every single day, says a lot).

Another intangible: The Cardinals passed on Big Ben in the '04 draft (granted, to draft Fitzgerald) and he has repeatedly said that that motivates him. Plus, he wants to redeem his Super Bowl XL performance.

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« Reply #13 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:25 »

Another intangible: Tomlin wanting to prove to the Rooneys that they hired the wrong guy; Whisenhunt want to prove to them they hired the wrong guy.

Advantage: The ever-so-disciplined Tomlin who, no doubt, approaches this game with his utmost professionalism (which, for a guy does this almost every single day, says a lot).

I think tomlin wants to prove to the Rooney's that they hired the right guy??  Just playing...I knew what you meant. clap

Wrong - I meant to say "correct," not "right" - as evidenced by my edit.  B)
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« Reply #14 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:28 »

1. Ben against the Cardinals pass defense vs. Warner against the Steelers pass defense.
Ben is going to have to be careful with the ball but he's also going to have to make some plays and convert some key third downs. The Steelers should be able to do this. One huge factor in the steelers's favor is that the Arizona pass rush has been very weak all season. Ben should have time to throw, and, even if he doesn't from the occasional blitz, he's going to be able to to his John Elway routine and make big plays. The Cardinals were torched by some good passing offenses with deep receiving corps this season, and this will be no exception.

ON the other side, Warner is obviously going to face a level of defensive play he hasn't seen all year. I was impressed with how they handled a very good Eagles defense but even the Philly defense is not in the class of a historically great Steelers' d. The difference between the steelers defense and the EAgles is that Pittsburgh can shut down the run, prevent the deep pass, and apply pressure on any given play without conceding the other elements. The Eagles had to guess; the Steelers don't have to. Warner will be pressured; the speed of the LBs and Polamalu will make the quick slants and outs very difficult for the Cardinals. The big play is something the Steelers have shut down this year, and, historically, Dick LeBeau's defenses are excellent at shutting down the other team's top receiver. To me, this all spells trouble for the Cardinals. A lot of trouble.

EDGE: Pittsburgh.

2. Steelers running game against the Cardinal front 7 vs. the ARZ running game against the Steelers front 7.

The Vikings and Patriots -- comparable to the Steelers in their ability to stop the run -- held the Cardinals to 44 and 43 yards in their games in December. The Cardinals and Edgerrin James did run well against CArolina, and many people are pointing to that as evidence that the Cardinals have rediscovered their running game.

This is a MYTH. People just assume the Panthers have a good run defense, because in a typical year, they do. This year, their run defense was horrible, though. The Giants ran the ball for over 300 yards on Carolina, and the Panthers finished in the bottom third of the NFL in rushing yards allowed and avg per attempt. Moreover, the Panthers' D was on the field a long time thanks to Delhomme the turnover machine and the big lead put the Cards in rushing mode.

Bottom line: the Cardinals will have zero ability to run on Pittsburgh. Hampton & Smith will do their typical dirty work clogging up the middle. The LBs and Keisel will be brutally effective at stopping the outside runs. If the Cardinals run for 50 yards in this game, I will be surprised.

The Steelers' running game: Pittsburgh's running game has indeed been spotty. The Cardinals' front 7 has been all over the board in their run defense. But the Steelers have the advantage of having just gone up against Baltimore. The Cardinals will look like they're in slow motion compared to the Ravens. And besides, the Steelers don't have to run the ball great against Arizone. They just have to be decent. And, based on the Cardinals' season, there is just no way they aren't going to be at least that in Tampa.

Moreover, the flow of the game should give Pittsburgh a chance to improve their running productivity as the game goes on. Arizona is simply not going to be able to sustain long drives. The Steelers should be able to get an early lead, which will compound Arizona's problem. As the 'Zona defense is on the field longer and longer, they will wear down, and the Steelers will simply own the 2nd half, and Willie will get to 100.

A quick statistical tidbit. Much has been made of the Cardinals shutting down the Falcon and Panther running games. But let's recall that against the Falcons, the Cardinals used a gameplan similar to the one we used against the Flacco-led Ravens: they committed to shutting down the run and forced the rookie to make plays under pressure. Against Carolina, that game got quickly out of hand because of the Delhomme picks, and I think Carolina got impatient too early and abandoned the run.

I think the Steelers won't run roughshod over the Cardinals like they're the browns, but they don't need to. They need to set the foundation of the running game in the 1st half to set up Ben's passing, and in the 2nd half the stats will look better on a worn-down CArdinals' d. At the half, the Steelers will probably have run the ball 12 or so times for a 3.3 yard average; in the 2nd half they'll add 20 carries with a 5.0 yard average.

The Cardinals, again, will not get 50 yards for the game, IMO.

Running Game: BIG EDGE, Pittsburgh.

My prediction for the game -- this game is going to look a lot like the Tampa Bay - Oakland Super Bowl.  When a great pass defense plays a great pass offense, go with the nasty D.

Final Score: Steelers 34, Cardinals 13.

I think Polamalu, Harrison, Farrior, or Woodley will get the MVP. Lawrence Timmons will make a big play or two and he could sneak in for the award. Big Ben will have an efficient game, though I think he will make one mistake, and finish with a line like 22 of 32 for 245 yards, a TD and an INT. Parker will get to 100 yards.

Super Bowl Champs, baby!
« Last Edit: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:30 by Manimal » Logged
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« Reply #15 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:28 »

Another intangible: Tomlin wanting to prove to the Rooneys that they hired the wrong guy; Whisenhunt want to prove to them they hired the wrong guy.

Advantage: The ever-so-disciplined Tomlin who, no doubt, approaches this game with his utmost professionalism (which, for a guy does this almost every single day, says a lot).

I think tomlin wants to prove to the Rooney's that they hired the right guy??  Just playing...I knew what you meant. clap


Wrong - I meant to say "correct," not "right" - as evidenced by my edit.  B)

I knew not knowing how to read would come back to haunt me at some point....
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« Reply #16 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 09:59 »

Some good stuff here, guys.

I agree that the Cards faced some lesser light defenses.  The Falcons and Panthers are both middle of the road.  Eagles defense is pretty good, though.  But as much as you can celebrate a 5-5-1 team making the cut, you have to remember that they were 5-5-1 for a reason, and that inconsistency bit 'em in the ass.

According to the fabulouf Finny numbers, I have the defenses they faced as follows in my final power rankings:

Atlanta Falcons, -26.6067, 24th.
Carolina Panthers, 0.9458, 14th.
Philadelphia Eagles, 80.9304, 3rd.

They'll go up against Pittsburgh Steelers, 97.5853, 1st.

The variance in these ratings was the Steelers to the Lions at -91.something.  Negative ratings are not particularly good, and neither are 0~ish ones.  That makes the dominance over the Eagles in the first half and for the last drive anomalous; however, for as great as Jim Johnson is as a DC (with Kiffin and the Ageless One, undoubtedly the best and most consistent three of the last decade), he has a much higher propensity to blitz, higher even than LeBeau.  Blitzing is a gamble: win big, lose big.  LeBeau is more of an artist, knowing when to call the blitz, knowing not to over-use it. 

Steelers have faced two offenses this postseason:

San Diego Chargers, 60.8600, 1st.
Baltimore Ravens, 4.8600, 14th.

Neither did particularly well. 

Cardinals are no slouches:

Arizona Cardinals, 34.8600, 4th.  Undoubtedly, they'd rank much higher in the post-season, but I don't have a way of doing that yet.

The swing on offensive rankings is Chargers down to Browns, -72.something. 

Way I see it, the Steelers D will do what it does.  The O will presumably fare about as well as it did against the Chargers' D:

San Diego Chargers, 12.0080, 17th.
Arizona Cardinals, -14.0641, 18th.

17th or 18th best D, doesn't matter much: we should be able to move the ball better than we did against the hellish sched we had most of the year, including Ravens (2nd), Eagles (3rd), Titans (5th), Redskins (8th), Giants (9th), Cowboys (10th), Bengals (15th... ?!?), etc. 

Noted, these are calculated not from yardage, but from a number of stats, and have some eccentricity.  But having the top 3 teams in those calculated rankings comprise 3 of the 4 conference championship teams isn't too shabby.

Using the Pitt-SD DP game as a baseline, which I see as a 35-17 win (plus a garbage TD; the math predictor came pretty damned close to getting that margin right, BTW), the score by quarter was 7-7, 14-7 Pitt, 21-7 Pitt, 35-17 (24*) Pitt. 

So 35-17 sounds about right here, too.  They'll draw some blood early, get shut down, chip some in late after we get up on 'em.







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« Reply #17 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 10:06 »

So 35-17 sounds about right here, too.  They'll draw some blood early, get shut down, chip some in late after we get up on 'em.

I think this is about how it will go.

One thought I've had about the 'Zona strategy to defend the pass in this game. I think they may try to play a bit like the Seahawks played us in the Super Bowl: minimal blitzing, in an effort to prevent creating opportunities for Ben to make big plays when the play breaks down, and lots of guys in a conservative zone.

In short, I think they'll try to force Ben to play dink and dunk football. This could be dangerous for us -- I would prefer they gamble and blitz and dare Ben to make big plays, because while he will get sacked if this happens, he will absolutely torch them with multiple big plays.

But if they do go coverage-heavy instead, the Steelers will be able to run the ball very effectively and Ben is simply not the QB he was as a 2nd year man. He is a much more patient passer these days, and he will happily pick apart the Cardinals with little dinks and dunks, which will create opportunities for our receivers -- who are among the best in the NFL in YAC -- to make plays just running the ball after short receptions.
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« Reply #18 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 10:20 »

Just to return to p2. of this thread...

Predictor had the Panthers winning only by 2, when most thought they'd blow the Cards out.  ;Well, even so, that was a miss.  ;Predictor totally got Delhommed.

It called the Ravs-Tits game as Ravs by 12, where the margin was 13-10 in a game where the Tits dominated.  ;Of course, we dominated their asses, too, and we should have won by more.  ;Of course, Predictor said we'd only win by 3 over the Ravs, so perhaps we over-performed?  ;Somehow?  ;Anyway, two misses on the margin.

Eagles-Giants it called Eagles by 14; Igs won it by 12.  ;Close enough.

Steelers-Bolts it called Steelers by 17.  ;As noted, I feel this was a 35-17 game with a junk TD late, so close e-damned-nough.  ;

For the SB, Predictor is very confident of the Steelers:  ;

Steelers 94.5034
Cards: 12.8299
Confidence (difference): 81.6735.
Confidence in SD game in DP round: 41.1081.  ;So more confident overall of a win than against the Bolts.

Breaking down the units, using regular season rankings:

Steelers O: 0.2600
Cards D: -14.0641
Winner: Steelers O (+14.3241)

Cards O: 34.8600
Steelers D: 97.5853
Winner: Steelers D (+62.7253)


Delta: 77.0495
Margin: 27

So, for the WC, Margin Predictor was 4/4; for the DP, 2/4; for the CC, 1 wrong, 1 incomplete.  ;Or, 6/9 or 66.7% overall in getting not just the winner (80% in that) but the margin itself, with that Steelers' game counted as a hit.

So, FWIFW, this thing is calling for another SB blowout, with the Cards getting schooled.

Not sure I personally have that much confidence, but say we allow them to get what SD did without the junk TD, i.e. 17 points...  ;Adjusted down a bit due to SD being #1 and Arizona being #4...  ;Predictor is looking at something like 41-14, Steelers.  ;Which is... wow.  ;Pretty big.

If we win that big, I think Ben and FWP are both having huge days, not to mention another classic Steeler D kinda game.  ;But the MVP voters like those gaudy offensive stats, so Ben MVP in his second time hoisting the Lombardi.

Hope to hell this thing works out like that.  ;I'd personally see this as more a 35-17 kinda game, with one of the D guys getting the MVP, maybe Troy. 
« Last Edit: Jan 20, 2009 at 10:22 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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« Reply #19 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 10:26 »



So, FWIFW, this thing is calling for another SB blowout, with the Cards getting schooled.

Not sure I personally have that much confidence, but say we allow them to get what SD did without the junk TD, i.e. 17 points...  ;Adjusted down a bit due to SD being #1 and Arizona being #4...  ;Predictor is looking at something like 41-14, Steelers.  ;Which is... wow.  ;Pretty big.

I like those odds, if they are accurate. I feel very confident about this game, and I'm predicting a big win, though I do think our Steelers have the tendency to make just enough mistakes turn a blowout into a closer game.

We should have gotten up 20-3 on Balty, for example, a lead which would have opened the floodgates to huge lopsided blowout, as Flacco's interceptions would have come a lot earlier. But, alas, we saw what happened.

(We should  have blown out the Seahawks, too -- if Ben's interception was a FG drive instead, the pressure on Hasselbeck would have created turnover opportunities for us that could have snowballed...but, again, we saw what happened.)
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« Reply #20 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 10:48 »

Quote
Of course, Predictor said we'd only win by 3 over the Ravs, so perhaps we over-performed?  ;Somehow?  ;Anyway, two misses on the margin.

If you don't have the late Pola TD - say he intercepts and goes down at the 40, we 3 and out and punt(very plausible), likely we win by 2, so margin would be almost dead on.  extremely happy we didn't have to suffer through that scenario.


Quote
Hope to hell this thing works out like that.  ;I'd personally see this as more a 35-17 kinda game, with one of the D guys getting the MVP, maybe Troy.

While it's supposed to be based only on SB performance, I'd like them to take into the account that without Troy's monster plays at key moments, Steelers may well be sitting at home.  So if he has a good game, he should get strong consideration.  he would have to come up huge, though.  As you said, all those awards are hevily slanted to the offense.  If we score 35, offense gets MVP, even if D shuts them out.  Only way D player is considered is if it's a 13-10 game, with a defensive TD.  Look at last year.  How can the Giants D not get the MVP?
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« Reply #21 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 13:10 »

Hope to hell this thing works out like that.  ;I'd personally see this as more a 35-17 kinda game, with one of the D guys getting the MVP, maybe Troy. 

#43 SB 43 MVP

Has a nice ring to it.
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« Reply #22 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 13:19 »

#43 SB 43 MVP

Has a nice ring to it.


Sorry, that piece of hardware is reserved for #7.  Ben's gonna have a monster game, maybe not 300 4tds monster, but monster enough to grab a new car and a shiny trophy.  dude is gonna atone big time for a 22 rating monkey thats been on his back for 3 years now.
« Last Edit: Jan 20, 2009 at 13:23 by JackSplat » Logged

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« Reply #23 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 13:21 »

#43 SB 43 MVP

Has a nice ring to it.


Sorry, that piece of hardware is reserved for #7.  Ben's gonna have a monster game, maybe not 300 4tds monster, but monster enough to gr


... to gr... to gr... TO WHAT?!? 

The suspense is killing me.  Don't tell me you pulled a Brinker on us, man.
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« Reply #24 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 13:29 »

#43 SB 43 MVP

Has a nice ring to it.


Sorry, that piece of hardware is reserved for #7.  Ben's gonna have a monster game, maybe not 300 4tds monster, but monster enough to gr



... to gr... to gr... TO WHAT?!? 

The suspense is killing me.  Don't tell me you pulled a Brinker on us, man.

aimed for the shift key and have no idea what button i pressed and half got posted.  but its all gewd now
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« Reply #25 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 13:35 »

#43 SB 43 MVP

Has a nice ring to it.


Sorry, that piece of hardware is reserved for #7.  Ben's gonna have a monster game, maybe not 300 4tds monster, but monster enough to gr


... to gr... to gr... TO WHAT?!? 

The suspense is killing me.  Don't tell me you pulled a Brinker on us, man.

LOL!!
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« Reply #26 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 14:12 »

#43 SB 43 MVP

Has a nice ring to it.


Sorry, that piece of hardware is reserved for #7.

I let myself get seduced by the duality of the numbers.
How 'bout this: #7 SB 7 MVP (Steelers' 7th SB)
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« Reply #27 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 14:28 »

I am also going with Ben as SB MVP.....really feel that he wants to atone for his game in XL.
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« Reply #28 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 14:58 »

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I am also going with Ben as SB MVP.....really feel that he wants to atone for his game in XL.

That's what worries me.  I don't want him trying too hard, as he did in XL.  Don't press it, let the game come to you, baby!
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« Reply #29 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 15:00 »

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I am also going with Ben as SB MVP.....really feel that he wants to atone for his game in XL.

That's what worries me.  I don't want him trying too hard, as he did in XL.  Don't press it, let the game come to you, baby!

Exactly right.  I hope he has nothing to do with this "make up for XL" nonsense.  We won the damn game, what is there to make up for? Last thing we need is Ben trying to force shit to be the hero when it isn't necessary.
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« Reply #30 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 15:13 »

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I am also going with Ben as SB MVP.....really feel that he wants to atone for his game in XL.

That's what worries me.  I don't want him trying too hard, as he did in XL.  Don't press it, let the game come to you, baby!

Exactly right.  I hope he has nothing to do with this "make up for XL" nonsense.  We won the damn game, what is there to make up for? Last thing we need is Ben trying to force shit to be the hero when it isn't necessary.

Ben kept the ball away from Ed Reed the whole damned game.  He's had exactly zero picks this post-season.  He and Peyton are the only two without a pick, and of course Peyton went out after one game.  Second highest PR to only Knurt Werner hisself in the postseason, too.

I don't get the sense that Ben is "pressing."
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« Reply #31 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 15:20 »



I don't get the sense that Ben is "pressing."

Nor do I, I just hope he doesn't get caught up in what the talking heads say.
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« Reply #32 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 18:01 »

Odds for SB MVP, calculated by my personal think tank.

If Steelers Win- 

2-1 ---> Big Ben Roethlisberger....The award favors the winning QB if they play well. I think Ben is going to play well.

7-2 ---> Fast Willie Parker....If he puts up numbers like the SD game, he will be a strong candidate.

6-1 ---> Santonio "Huffin'" Holmes....If Ben or Willie don't distinguish themselves, and Holmes has a big play or two, he could snag it.

9-1 ---> Defensive trio of either TP, Silverback, and LaMarr "Crunchtime" Woodley....Anyone of these guys could make a game changing play.

25-1 ---> Field


If 'Zona wins-

Even ---> Kurt Warner.... Already been there and done that, and lets face it, they aren't winning if he doesn't have a big game

3-1 ---> Fitz.... The guy is just capable of making spectacular play after play. Could have a very, very strong day.

8-1 ---> A. Boldin.... With all the attention that will probably go to Larry, he could face man coverage and have a couple of big plays.

35-1 ---> Field
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« Reply #33 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 19:14 »

I am rooting for Ben to win the MVP, if for no other reason to contribute to the clear fact that he is an elite QB.

After this Super Bowl, no more will we read columns ranking the top QBs that place Ben lower than the likes of Tony Romo or, dear God I see this more often than you'd think, Matt Hasselbeck.

In two weeks, Ben ends this conversation and the consensus will put Manning, Brady, and Ben at the top with the #4 guys well below in the next tier.
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« Reply #34 on: Jan 20, 2009 at 23:14 »

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9-1 ---> Defensive trio of either TP, Silverback, and LaMarr "Crunchtime" Woodley....Anyone of these guys could make a game changing play.


the Woodman is my darkhorse to win the MVP of 43.  little known fact, Woodley is the first player in NFL history to record 3 consecutive multiple sack games in the playoffs.  Not too shabby considering 43 years of the super bowl era and all the true greats that have played the game.  he is really benefitting from the doubles on harrison.  So look for this trend to continue against the redbirds.
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« Reply #35 on: Jan 21, 2009 at 08:02 »

I started to get sucked into the MVP thought last night but I don't want to lose sight that you have to win the game first and worry about the rest of it then.  I would love for Ben to win it and then be "the #3."  I would like Troy to win it so that when people start talking Reed vs. Troy there is yet another factor to throw in.  I'd like Willie to win it since he has struggled this season. 

The bottom line for me is that a Steeler win it. 

PUMA
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« Reply #36 on: Jan 21, 2009 at 08:16 »

I started to get sucked into the MVP thought last night but I don't want to lose sight that you have to win the game first and worry about the rest of it then.  I would love for Ben to win it and then be "the #3."  I would like Troy to win it so that when people start talking Reed vs. Troy there is yet another factor to throw in.  I'd like Willie to win it since he has struggled this season. 

The bottom line for me is that a Steeler win it. 

PUMA

Ditto...You know, compare Levon Kirkland's performance against Dallas in '95 to any Steeler in 2005, and you will find it superior. But dude didn't get the MVP nod, since his team didn't win.

I don't care who gets the MVP as long as we win the game.
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