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Author Topic: Stats say Steelers will score 3 TD's Arizona will score 2  (Read 1211 times)
pensodyssey
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« Reply #10 on: Jan 28, 2009 at 17:47 »

Just curious, did you work up similar stats to project how the Cards would do against Atlanta, Carolina, or Philly?

Yeah, the stats projected they'd beat the Panthers and Falcons, but not the Eagles.

You could argue that the Eagles beat themselves...

Interesting.



I know Andy Reid beats himself, cause ain't no woman gonna touch his crusty, haven't showered for a week thingey.  Come to think of it, Reid has all the look of a guy who sleeps in his office 5 times a week.  The cleaning staff is prolly sick of walking in on him milling about in his tighty whiteys (which I suspect are neither tight nor white) eating a chili cheese dog and picking the wax out of his ears. 
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« Reply #11 on: Jan 28, 2009 at 22:42 »

Just curious, did you work up similar stats to project how the Cards would do against Atlanta, Carolina, or Philly?

Yeah, the stats projected they'd beat the Panthers and Falcons, but not the Eagles.

You could argue that the Eagles beat themselves...

Interesting.



I know Andy Reid beats himself, cause ain't no woman gonna touch his crusty, haven't showered for a week thingey.   

Maybe not a woman, but his boys sure dont get their crack money from doing chores around the house.
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« Reply #12 on: Jan 30, 2009 at 00:48 »

Interesting.

Last time I looked, it was 46.5/47 and I thought the over was the best play.


You might want to rethink taking the over AJ.

Officiating crew: Referee Terry McCauley will be calling the game, leading an all-star group of officials that rated as the best in 2008. His presence could dictate a lower-scoring game. McCauley is a very good official and has Super Bowl experience. His regular-season games averaged a total of 41.93 points, the sixth lowest among the 17 referees and a little more than two points per game below the league average. Over the past three years, though, his games averaged 39.36 points, the lowest average among the 17 referees. The Cardinals win shootouts. The Steelers win lower-scoring games.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs2008/columns/story?columnist=clayton_john&page=1standgoal/superbowl
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aj_law
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« Reply #13 on: Jan 30, 2009 at 13:50 »

Yeah, pretty much everything screams take the under and Steelers (-7) and I think that's where a lot of the Joe Public money is going.

When you look at their ATS records, it really drives it home.  Pittsburgh is 14-4 while Arizona is a (respectable) 12-7.  Howevuh, they're only 4-5 ATS on the road, which as pretty much most would agree, this game is going to be for them.

Pittsburgh O/U is generally split 50/50 while Arizona goes over almost 75% of the time.  Naturally, if you think Arizona is going to struggle, go low.

So, why the hell does my gut keep telling me that the right play here is the over with the matchup play being the Cards (+7)?

Because I think the 'Zona defense sucks balls, that's why.  If Arians can manage to stay out of the way and not fuck things up too badly, I see no reason why Pittsburgh doesn't score 30.  Shit, they got there against the Bolts and they coulda got there against the Ratties too if the sun wasn't in Sweed's eyes. 

Nah, I'm stickin' with the over.  I might not be as confident about it, but my gut has been right a lot more often than not this year so...
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Steelerdipwad
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« Reply #14 on: Jan 30, 2009 at 15:08 »

More stats:
List of QB's who have had a Qb rating of 90 or better vs. the Cards this season:

Jackson (135.3)
E. Manning (127.3)
Favre (123.7)
Delhomme (122.3)
McNabb (121.7)
Romo (116.2)
Cassel (116.1)
Campbell (112.2)
Losman (101.3)
McNabb (97.3)
Edwards (91.7)

List of QB's who have had a QB rating of 90 or better vs. the Steelers this season:

Rivers (105.4)
Collins (101.9)
P. Manning (95.Cool

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« Reply #15 on: Feb 02, 2009 at 07:52 »

So, why the hell does my gut keep telling me that the right play here is the over with the matchup play being the Cards (+7)?

So, did you take the over & the Cards AJ?  How about you start emailing me your picks a couple days before each game?  Either that or just spot me a loan...
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jonzr
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Have a cup o' joe.


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« Reply #16 on: Feb 02, 2009 at 08:36 »

Yeah, I'm wondering too.  The over and the Cards was indeed the way to go.  There may be some sad Cards fans but lots of happy Cards bettors.
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aj_law
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« Reply #17 on: Feb 02, 2009 at 16:19 »

So, why the hell does my gut keep telling me that the right play here is the over with the matchup play being the Cards (+7)?

So, did you take the over & the Cards AJ?  How about you start emailing me your picks a couple days before each game?  Either that or just spot me a loan...

Yeah, I went with an OK sized over play, but I stayed away from the matchup pick.  Didn't want to be bothered with worrying about a team covering.  I just wanted to enjoy the game...as much as a game like that physically permits.

I had a solid playoff run.  11-1.  Finished the year up nicely.  Feels good to be on this side again.  It's been a coupla years.

Yeah, I'm wondering too.  The over and the Cards was indeed the way to go.  There may be some sad Cards fans but lots of happy Cards bettors.


Funny.  I called my guy late.  He was actually closed, but he knew it was me and he knows I'm a big Steeler fan so he took the call; probably assuming I was going to go with the Steelers (the last time they were in the SB, I let my season winnings ride on them).  Anyway, when I tell him I'm not confident about any of the numbers, he tells me that he needs me to feel confident, very confident, in my team.  Obviously, he had a lot of action on Arizona and he needed somebody to offset it.  I told him "TBH, if I had to pick a side, I'd probably take the Cards and the (+7) too."  I'm sure he was pissed, but he's definitely less pissed than if I'd gone with it.
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