I had an incredibly detailed analysis of these players, values, etc. The kind of thing that puts Otis to sleep and makes Penso wonder if I don't double as HarryAWay after all. Thankfully, internal server error intercepted it and an abbreviated version replaces it, below.
1. OT W Beatty, UConn: I am counting on C a little later, and see O-Line as a must. Came down to 2 OT's.....Beatty and Britton of Arizona. I went with Beaty due to most of what I have read has him being a bit quicker off the snap, excelling at pulling and trapping, and strong downfield.
I think Philly snaps up Britton anyway, having lost Tra Thomas, at 1.21 or 1.28. Beatty is a great athlete, and did better at Indy than Britton, but Britton's shown more collegiately and is more likely a guy who can step in year 1. If a run gets going on OTs in R1 (e.g., Chicago takes Britton), Beatty might even be gone. Right now, NFLDS has Beatty at 43, which to me seems a little low. Given the dearth of legit LT prospects, some team at the top of R2 will pull the trigger if we don't. Some may see Beatty as too finesse, but he's a solid run blocker. He just needs a year in strength and conditioning before he sees action.
Luckily, we have Max Starks. For a year.Grade: A.
Beatty has as much upside as any OT in the draft, but is nowhere near as polished as the top prospects, and needs to add some weight and strength.
2. DE J Glibert, San Jose St. I read numerous posts here that have him as a must take in the 1st if we want as he will not lst through the second. I am going to go with the insanity posted most other places that have him in the 3rd and say we get him here.
Don't believe it. If Gilbert fell this far, I'd be very, very happy. But I'm having flashbacks to 2007, when I was up on Jason Jones out of Eastern Michigan. All the mock sites had him as a R3/4 guy, and I was thinking we might be wise to take him at the bottom of R2. He went 2.54. The need for athletic 3-4 DEs is only growing with more teams switching over, so small school prospects (like Gilbert, Jones, Langford) are shooting up draft boards that tend to undervalue them. Gilbert was very productive at SJSU, and looks to have more upside than Tyson Jackson of LSU.
Put it to you this way: if we don't take him, Patriots (2.34, need solid depth behind Seymour and Warren), the Browns (2.36, who do they have, really?), or Packers (2.41, switching to 3-4 and need the personnel) will. Guaranteed. I'd bet $37 Gilbert does not make it past 2.41.
NFLDS has Gilbert rated 85, or a R3 value, BTW. Interesting note: they had Jason Jones rated... 86. Gilbert is 6'5", 288#, ran 4.81, had 28 reps, 35 1/2" vertical, and 9'11" broad (KEI = 73.5). Jones was 6'5", 273#, ran 4.76, had 18 reps, a 25 1/2" vertical, and 10'3" broad (KEI = 54). Gilbert had 9.5 sacks and 22.0 TFL his senior year; Jones had 3.5 sacks and 19.5 TFL. Simply put, Gilbert > Jones, and Jones went 2.54. QED.Grade: A+/Inc.
If we got Gilbert here, it would be like getting another Woodley, only later. He could immediately be a situational pass rusher, and take over for Keisel sooner than later. But it ain't happening.[/quote]
3. C J Luigs, Arkansas. Deep C class has me thinking he may be available here. Going with speed, intelligence, and again downfield blocking. Does not seem to be a huge drop off from the top 2, and at 3rd round better value.
I really like Mack and Wood, and slightly behind them Unger. In the next tier, I have Luigs, Caldwell, and Shipley. Centers have a tendency to be devalued on draft day, and fall slightly from projections, so Luigs is a real possibility here. (NFLDS rates Luigs, Caldwell, and Ship as 79, 101, and 153, respectively.) IMO, Luigs and Caldwell are R3 values, and Shipley is a R4. Luigs and Ship are both Rimington winners, and my only knock on Ship is his size: can he face Ngata twice a year? Can he stop DTs with those short arms? Caldwell is a bruiser, more solid than Hartwig and Mahan have been, maybe more in the mold of Hartings. But can he call the protections at the line? Can he play OG? That's where Luigs is my top guy after the big three.
He's a smart guy on the line who could get into the mix at OG now. He needs a bit more anchor weight (gets walked back in the pocket sometimes), but certainly has all the skills and correctable faults. In fact, I may like Luigs a little more than Unger, who's a jack of all trades and possibly master of none.Finny's grade: A.
Would be a solid addition to the IOL for years to come.
3 (comp): CB/FS S Martin, Troy: Good size/speed combo. Ability to blitz and cover. Need a physical due to previous injuries. Flies around the field to the ball. Considered D Jackson of Jackson St here, but dont know that he will still be around largely due to speed. The loss of McFadden makes this more of a need that it was.
I think we may go CB in R1 or R2. William Gay did well in short duty, and may well be starter material. If not, we're screwed. Townshend's age is an issue, and behind Gay and Townshend we have no one. If we did wait unti, the R3C pick, Martin would be an excellent addition. Of the CBs likely to be on the board, he'd be my pick, too. 90 tackles, 7 PBU, and 4 INT as a FS his senior year. Nice speed and size, but the question is, what's his position?
Martin had an up and down week at the East-West game, and likely will need a year playing STs and getting in on the dime, at best. He won't be ready to be on an island in 2009, and the Steelers may want that. In fact, given his window, Martin might be a better addition as a FS behind Clark, except that I find it unlikely that they would draft a FS this high and ignore CB earlier, or draft a CB and FS both before R4. Something doesn't add up there, IMO.
Still, an intriguing athlete. NFLDS rates him 121, which would mean we would need to pick him here.Finny's grade: B+.
Draft him now, figure out where he'll play later. Like Timmons.
4. DT T Taylor, Meatchicken: Seen as high as 3rd rounder, low as 5th. Going with the middle ground here. Almost sounds like a poor mans Hampton....very poor, but there it is.
OK, I've said it before. He's a motherfucking turd. DND. I would take small school prospects before Taylor, or even a UDFA like Antonio Dixon out of Miami before I took this POS. Selected highlights from NFLDS:
Much was expected out of Taylor after earning a second-team All-Big Ten selection in 2007 (55 tackles, 8.5 for loss, 3.5 sacks), but his play noticeably dropped off as a senior (35 tackles, four tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks)... Short and not in great shape. ... Does not shed blocks when straight-up on his man, but makes plays when lined up on the shoulder of the center or guard. ... Better conditioning could help him get off the ball and collapse the pocket consistently.... Exposed a bit at the East-West Shrine Game for being a bit of a one-trick pony... A team operating out of the 3-4 scheme may still consider bringing Taylor aboard, but with little competition for his services, Taylor could be available late on Sunday or perhaps even go undrafted. [At E-W Shrine game] The defensive line coaches were constantly getting on Taylor to get past his man into the backfield. Occasionally he would use his strength to fill a gap, but most times he was stuck to his block like Velcro... Terrance Taylor was the d-line coach's whipping boy during one-on-one drills. Taylor's inability to get off a block or get past his man brought more than a little tongue lashing.
On the positive side, he did put the bar up 37 times at Indy, more than any other DT. If you want someone to lift weights, draft Taylor. Unfortunately, we need football players.Finny's grade: F.
At this spot, there should be developmental OGs of value on the board, who can succeed Luigs on the OL next year.
5. DE M Bennett, Tex A&M: Strength is his strength. Has played around the D-Line, and seems to have some plus to being on the edge. Developmental prospect in an area we need depth.
Here's a guy who I think will be a great value for a 4-3 team. But where does he fit here? OK, he's a slightly undersized DE, measurables good but not great (cf. Gilbert, or 4-3 DE Ziggy Hood, whom we talked to at Indy). I don't hate this pick, but I see him more as a backup or 40-front guy. A Kirschke replacement, maybe, but not a starter. There are a few guys rated lower who have some interesting 3-4 DE appeal (Pedescleaux, Egboh, etc.).Finny's grade: C.
Not the worst 5th round pick we've ever had, but a puzzle as to how we'd use him. Not a proto -34 end.
6. WR / KR M. Wallace, Mississippi: Needs work as a route runner, but has been improving. Averaged approx 19 ypc over last 2 seasons. Has speed and 2 kick return TD's.
Definitely. One of my passel of late round squirts who can play the slot and contribute as a KR. Finny's grade: A.
7. G / T: R Stancheck, WVU: My annual throw a Mountaineer in the picks somewhere. Played T in college, but likely move to Guard in pros. Tough and durable. Disciplined and athletic. Again, a project due to system coming from, but in round 7, why not.
Way too small to play tackle, and IMO never more than a backup OG, if that. Would rather go for an OG earlier. IMO, some very good talent still likely there at R3 (Canfield, Greene), and around R4-5 you can get some small school upside guys like Lang. Not enamored of this.Finny's grade: D.
7 (comp): CB / S D Carey, Norfolk St: Tendency to play a bit too physical, good height and strength. Special Teamer with ability to grow and add depth.
Carey -- along with Beatty, Gilbert, Luigs, Martin, and Wallace -- has appeared on some of my early mocks and draft discussion. I rally think this guy is a late diamond in the rough, though I might take him R6 just to be sure. Unlike Turd Taylor, Carey had a great week of practice at the E-W Shrine, and IMO has a similar speed/size makeup to Sherrod Martin. His 10-yard split of 1.47 shows he can cover short areas in a flash (he's right up there with the elite CBs), and his 4.49 long speed wasn't bad this year.Finny's grade: A.
Overall, if we actually GOT Beatty, Gilbert, Luigs and Martin, then Wallace and Carey would be icing. An A+ overall.