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Author Topic: St. Patrick's Day mock draft  (Read 555 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Mar 16, 2009 at 15:58 »

A day early.  With free agency in full swing, this mock is likely way off, but I thought it would be an interesting exercise.  IMO, it was: showed certain clusters of need early (OT, OLB) that did tweak my thinking somewhat.

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia.  Stafford's no Matt Ryan, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Lions enter the Cutler sweepstakes to avoid using a one overall on Stafford.  But if you want to overhaul an 0-16 team, are you really going to do that with Dan Orlovsky under center? 

2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor.  Rams desperately need an anchor on the line.  Smith may not be another Orlando Pace, but he and Eugene Monroe look like the two best bets for LT. 

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest.  Kansas City has a lot of young players -- last year, they drafted 12 players -- and this year gets the best overall prospect.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech.
  Sure, the Seahawks just signed TJ Houshmandzadeh, but he'll be 32 this year, and the Seahawks desperately need someone to be a go-to guy.  Don't expect medical issues to drop this kid too far.

5. Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas.
  James Harrison had 16 sacks last year; the Browns as a team had 17. 

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia.  The Bengals line was once one of the best in the league, but is pretty bad now.  Monroe will be an instant upgrade.

7. Oakland Raiders - BJ Raji, DT, Boston College.  Who the hell knows what Al Davis may do, but if Cable gets any input, the former offensive line coach will likely look to upgrade the defensive line.  The 31st ranked run D was largely thanks to turds like Browns castoff Gerard Warren and the lackluster Tommy Kelly at DT.  Raji can fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois.  Brother of Niners TE Vernon Davis, Vontae is also an excellent athlete.  Unlike Vernon, Vontae's skills should translate to the field, too.  With the Jags bringing in Tra Thomas, the Jags could still use some IOL help and a MLB, but CB may offer the best value.  Having Davis opposite Rashean Mathis will go a long way in the pass-happy AFC South.

9. Green Bay Packers - Everette Brown, DE, Florida State.  The Packers are switching to the 3-4, and will look to upgrade their front 7.  Brown was productive at the collegiate level, but will likely need to transition to OLB, as he's not the right size for a 3-4 end.

10.  San Francisco 49ers - Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss.   A team that allowed more sacks than the Steelers?  You bet they're taking the top tackle available.  Oher can play now on the right side and possibly transition to the left in the next couple of years.

11. Buffalo Bills - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC.
  Bills will be losing OLBs to free agency, and Cushing looks like a good fit here.

12. Denver Broncos - Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC.
  Speaking of USC LBs, the Broncos apparently have some issues with their defense.  The Cutler brouhaha is unsettling, but that D laid down like a sloppy whore last year.

13. Washington Redskins - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama.  Smith may slide, but it's likely that some team with OL needs will take him before he falls too far.  The Redskins have aging LTs (Samuels, Jansen) and may fit Smith in there.  If they can motivate Smith, the Redskins may get a bargain.  If not, Smith could be a huge bust.

14. New Orleans Saints - Malcolm Jennings, CB/FS, Ohio State.  The Saints let starting FS Josh Bullocks walk, and Jennings could be better at that position than corner.  Free agency has not helped the FO find a FS, and Jennings' poor 40 time won't hurt him too much.

15. Houston Texans - Clay Matthews, OLB, USC.   As noted, I expect a run on OLBs early this year.  Matthews will fit at strongside backer across from Demeco Ryans.  The former walk-on is a high-effort guy who can help a low-effort Texans D.

16. San Diego Chargers - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU.  The Chargers let Igor Olshansky walk, and Jackson should be a good value in the middle of the round.  Some question about his upside, but he should be ready to play from the get-go.

17. New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC.  All the QBs in this year's draft are dicey, and Sanchez has only one year of starting experience.  I don't think he goes top 10, but for the Jets, what's better?  Hoping that Kellen Clemens, Brian Ratliffe, or Erik Ainge pan out, or drafting Sanchez?

18. Chicago Bears - Eben Britton, OT, Arizona.  With the retirement of RT John Tait, the Bears find themselves looking in the middle of round 1 for an offensive tackle (Chris Williams in 2008).  Britton is a guy who should be able to play either OT spot, too.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chris Wells, Ohio State.  The Bucs' RBs have been the walking wounded, and Wells looks like a good fit.  They also need a QB, but won't reach here.

20. Detroit Lions - Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss.  The Lions's needs are many, but Peria would be a nice start in shoring up the DL. 

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma.   Pettigrew didn't run well at Indy, but the Eagles will take him here rather than risking waiting 7 picks.  The Eagles traded TE LJ Smith without shedding any tears.  In Pettigrew, they get more consistent hands, and a solid blocker.  And the Eagles like drafting linemen, so this almost qualifies.

22. Minnesota Vikings - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri.   The Vikings haven't had any real threat at WR since the days of Moss and Carter, and Maclin is almost as good as Crabtree. 

23. New England Patriots - Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati.  The Patriots have a 4 picks in the first two rounds, and desperately need an infusion of youth on the defense.  Barwin is still a work in progress, but his athleticism was the talk of Indy.  Most mocks have Barwin much later, but the Patriots can afford to roll the dice here.  Why did the Patriots trade away Mike Vrabel?  Perhaps they have a replacement in mind, and won't wait to have him stolen away.

24. Atlanta Falcons - Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois.  With Keith Brooking gone, the Falcons are another team desperate for OLB help.  English will switch from DE to OLB in the pros, but may not be the most smooth or speedy in coverage.  However, his pass-rush instincts will push him to the first rounds.

25. Miami Dolphins - DJ Moore, CB, Vanderbilt.  The Dolphins would love to have one of those OLBs fall here.  But they can also use an upgrade in their secondary, and while Moore is not optimal height he is a solid corner who should make some plays.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. Derrick Mason is getting a little long in the tooth, and quick... who are the other Ravens receivers?  It seems too coincidental: a Maryland WR, working out with Flacco throwing him the ball at his Pro Day.  The Ravens taking this kid for a test drive?  He's big and fast, just perfect for the big-armed Unibrow.

27. Indianapolis Colts - Evander Hood, DT, Missouri.  The Colts desperately need to shore the middle, and Ziggy Hood may just make it to the first round after some excellent Indy numbers.  The Colts may look for Harrison's replacement, but the DT value here is greater.

28. Philadelphia Eagles - Alex Mack, C, California.   With Tra Thomas, the Eagles could reach for William Beatty, but he doesn't seem like a fit at all along that beefy line.  With Stacy Andrews on board, Todd Herremans may get the call at LT.  An upgrade over C Jamaal Jackson seems more in keeping with the Eagles draft philosophy than taking a WR high.  Eagles fans will be livid.

29. New York Giants - Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina.  With Burress in serious hot water, the Giants won't have the same reluctance to draft a WR that their NFCE mates the Eagles do.  Nicks has iffy speed but great hands.  He'll need them to reel in some of those Eli ducks.

30. Tennessee Titans - Darius Butler, CB, Connecticutt.   Nick Harper is 34, and the Titans need a solid replacement.  Butler has the size, speed, and playmaking ability.  Some mocks have him lower, but I think he can creep into round 1.

31. Arizona Cardinals - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia.  Moreno isn't the speedster that McCoy is, and Whiz has seen McCoy up close and personal.  But with Arrington gone, and Edge's future uncertain, Whiz will be happy to get Moreno here.  Wells may be a good fit with the Bucs, but Moreno is the superior back.  His shiftiness and vision will impact immediately.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarron Gilbert, DE, San Jose State.   The Steelers have shown a lot of interest in OL (obvious reasons) and CB (McFadden gone, Townshend's age).  But the DL is aging, and the defense faltered when Aaron Smith went down in 2007.  The OL players here would be a reach.  There are some CBs they could consider, but the 3-4 DEs are few and far between at the top of the draft.  Gilbert looks like a perfect fit, and he won't last long in round 2. 

Think of it this way: the DL plays well, but is getting old.  The OL plays poorly, but is young.  Which do you stock up on?  There should be some IOL value in rounds 2 and 3, but the DL quickly turns into a crap shoot.  There may be some feeling in the FO as well that these young OL players can improve with a minor personnel tweak rather than a complete overhaul.  Not that I agree with that train of thought.

33. Detroit Lions - James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State.  With a top QB and DT in the fold, the Lions would be wise to work on upgrading the defense.  Many feel Laurinaitis is a high first round pick, but Craig Powell, Andy Katzenmoyer, A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter have been first-round disappointments from OSU.  Still, it'd be hard to fuck up that Lions defense, right?

34. New England Patriots - William Beatty. The Patriots brought in Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden, but I don't buy that those guys are the answer.  Patriots will likely still draft a corner early, and could take Alphonso Smith here.  But Matt Light is 30, and they may like the idea of developing a guy like Beatty at their own pace.  Patriots can hunt for CB value a little later.

35.  St. Louis Rams - Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest.   Like DJ Moore, Smith is a bit small, but sure can play.  The Rams just signed Ron Bartell, but their other corners have been less than stellar.  Smith and Bartell could be a huge 1-2 punch for the secondary.

36. Cleveland Browns - LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh.   Oh, I would hate to see this, but Cokeboy is getting old, and neither Jason Wright nor Jerome Harrison are legit #1 backs.  And of course, the Browns covet anything associated with Pittsburgh.

37. Seattle Seahawks - Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan. Brian Russell isn't athletic, and he's 30.  Louis Delmas is athletic, and will be 21.  Do that math... 

38.  Cincinnati Bengals - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida.   Harvin is widely seen as a solid round 1 prospect, but teams will need to figure out the right way to use him.  As a Reggie Bush-like WR/RB guy, he won't exactly replace Houshmandzadeh, but the Bengals will need a spark in their passing game, and Harvin can make big razzle dazzle plays happen.

39. Jacksonville Jaguars - Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers.   Britt's 3,000+ yards receiving made him the Big East's all time leading receiver.  He's the WR threat the Jaguars have desperately needed forever.  Britt, too, is often mentioned in the round 1 mix, but I think this is closer to his spot.

40. Oakland Raiders - Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech.  Another guy for the defensive line.  Where Raji is more a solid, known entity, Johnson is a a high bust potential athlete whose time as a Yellowjacket was not as productive as you'd want in a high round 2 pick, but his athleticism is hard to ignore.  Can Cable turn him into another Julius Peppers type end?

41. Green Bay Packers - Ron Brace, DT, Boston College. If Justin Harrell, the Packers' first round pick last year, can't play nose, Brace could certainly fill that role.  He might also have value at DE, although he's a bit thicker than the prototypical 3-4 DE. 

42. Buffalo Bills - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. Bills need some D-line help to pressure QBs, and Ayers is rising on draft boards.  Had a good senior year, but has been inconsistent.

43. San Francisco 49ers - Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State.  Maybin has been flying up the mocks, and he's an intriguing player.  But does he have a true NFL position?  Way too light to play end, and with added weight he looks sluggush as a DE.  I think he falls.

44. Miami Dolphins - Sean Smith, DB, Utah.   The Dolphins would love to have an OLB like Maybin slide all the way here, and could move up if they see him falling.  But Smith is also a great value, and would upgrade Renaldo Hill at FS (and could play corner if needed).  Matt Ware flashbacks may have teams scared off tall DBs, who may not have the ability to stick with speedy receivers.  Smith may be the exception, though.

45. New York Giants - Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut.  With Derrick Ward leaving, Brown is a prospect who can complement Brandon Jacobs. 

46. Houston Texans - Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon. Texans continue to improve the defense with a big, physical corner to play opposite Dunta Robinson.

TBC... I have the first two rounds completed, will update.

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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Mar 16, 2009 at 22:10 »

Geez, good mark darft.

The only guys I might consider over Gilbert are the CB out of Wake or Unger.

And, I can't believe I'm going to say this again, buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut I'd be tempted to consider...another...*through gritted teeth*...Buckeye if Laurinitis is still on the board.  Yeah, Pittsburgh needs another LBer over other more important positions like I need a smaller cock, but that's a solid late R1 player to snag at 1.32.  Potsie's not gettin' any younger and I still don't think Timmons can play in the middle.

Gilbert appears to know his way around a pool, but how good does he project to 3-4 DE?  Again, I'm behind.
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« Reply #2 on: Mar 17, 2009 at 10:33 »

IMO, it's not as easy as it used to be to find those bargain guys to play end in the 3-4.  More teams are running the 30 now, and with teams like the Packers switching over, they'll have D-linemen as an especially high priority.  Smith was a R4; Keisel was a R7.  I'm not sure we're going to have that kind of luck any more.

Typically, you want a guy who's more, well, Aaron Smith than Julius Peppers.  So you get a guy who's not exactly a proto DT or a proto DE.  You can't just go by heights and weights, but I'd tend to think that a 6'2" guy would be as out of place in our 3-4 end position as a 6'7" guy, because it comes down to leverage, and the assignments in the 3-4.  The proto DT might not be able to move as well laterally, or come off the edge; the proto DE might not be as stout versus the run.  So you hunt for the tweeners.  This year, there seems to be a couple guys at the top of the DE list, and then it falls way off.  It's even worse with DTs.

Compare Smith and Keisel to the draft class. 

Smith is 6'5 1/8", was 279# coming out of N. Colorado, did 19 (!) reps, had a 29 1/2" VJ, 9'2" broad, and ran a 5.06 40.  I don't have his complete college stats, except that he had 44 sacks, which is no doubt what drew our attention.  LOC was a ding, and he wasn't in a big school strength and conditioning program, obviously.  But Smith's size is spot-on for what you want in a guy coming out of college, about 6'5" and about 280#.  Look at a guy like Maybin from PSU.  He's 6'4" and was 235#; he added 10# and looked slow.  There's no way in hell he'll be able to keep that speed off the edge at 260-270#, much less bulking up to play the 3-4 end.  So who fits the bill?

Keisel did.  He was 6'5", 279# coming out of BYU.  He played 25 games his junior and senior years, had 63 tackles, 19.0 TFL and 9.0 sacks.  A little better program, and he was a little more athletic than Smith: 26 reps, 33 1/2" VJ, 8'11" broad, 4.89 40.  Orakpo, Brown, Maybin, Johnson?  Wrong frames.  Kruger out of BYU is interesting, but he's 6'4 1/4", 263#, and looks more like a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 end.  Maybe he could take on the 3-4 end, but IMO that's iffy, he seems not to have that kind of anchor.

So, you have Tyson Jackson and Jarron Gilbert, and beyond that some R4 and later types with some big questions about strength, production, etc.  At DT, you don't see that right frame until really, really late.  It boils down to this: there are two guys in Jackson and Gilbert who should be really good 3-4 DEs, and then a big falloff.  We've taken some shots with Orien Harris and Ryan McBean, and that hasn't worked lately.  My preference would be to get a top DE and then maybe another project type late or as a UDFA: worst case, you have one end for passing downs and a future starter, best case maybe both guys stick. 

Jackson played in the SEC, and is a little thicker, probably ready to play right away in the right system.  Gilberts'a bit more of an athlete, probably better at doing more things (including rushing the passer and dropping into coverage).  Jackson's more in Smith's mold, but I don't think he'll be as good.  Gilbert is more in Keisel's mold, but I think can be better than Keisel.

Jackson is 6'4 1/8", 296#, did not lift, 28 1/2" VJ, 8'6" broad, 4.94 40.  His numbers align much closer to Smith's.  Had a great sophmore season, but wasn't as productive as a junior or senior.  His GP, TKL, TFL, and sacks from freshman to senior years:

F: 12-12-1.0-1.0
S: 13-37-13.0-10.0
J: 14-26-7.0-4.0
S: 13-36-10.5-4.5
TOT: 53-121-31.5-19.5

I think that dropoff from the soph season is why most think Jackson has less upside.  Good player, what you see is what you get.  LSU also has had some other talent along that line besides Jackson those years, so he wasn't always the attention of the OLs he faced.

Gilbert is 6'5 1/4", 288#, 28 reps, 35 1/2" VJ, 9'11" broad, 4.81 40.  He's the best athlete, but can he play ball?  San Jose State actually has a couple of good prospects -- Gilbert, and CB Coye Francies -- but they are playing lower LOC.  And Gilbert is obviously the playmaker, so offenses are trying to neutralize him. 

F: 11-22-5.0-3.0
S: 13-32-7.5-5.0
J: 12-38-7.5-4.0
S: 12-52-22.0-9.5
TOT: 48-147-42.0-21.5

Gilbert, as opposed to Jackson, shows improvement year by year.  His 22 TFL led the nation.  His Dad was an OT for the Saints back when, so he's had some exposure to the game.  As a senior, he was getting double and triple teamed.  All the Combine stats and the pool video show is that he's an athlete, and that he can be explosive.  It might take him a year to really learn LeBeau's schemes, but you put him in on a passing down and turn him loose, and fun shit is gonna happen.  He'll be a guy you don't want to come off the field, period.
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« Reply #3 on: Mar 17, 2009 at 13:32 »

A day early.  With free agency in full swing, this mock is likely way off, but I thought it would be an interesting exercise.  IMO, it was: showed certain clusters of need early (OT, OLB) that did tweak my thinking somewhat.

1. Detroit Lions - Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia.  Stafford's no Matt Ryan, and it wouldn't surprise me to see the Lions enter the Cutler sweepstakes to avoid using a one overall on Stafford.  But if you want to overhaul an 0-16 team, are you really going to do that with Dan Orlovsky under center? 

2. St. Louis Rams - Jason Smith, OT, Baylor.  Rams desperately need an anchor on the line.  Smith may not be another Orlando Pace, but he and Eugene Monroe look like the two best bets for LT. 

3. Kansas City Chiefs - Aaron Curry, OLB, Wake Forest.  Kansas City has a lot of young players -- last year, they drafted 12 players -- and this year they get the best overall prospect.

4. Seattle Seahawks - Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech.
  Sure, the Seahawks just signed TJ Houshmandzadeh, but he'll be 32 this year, and the Seahawks desperately need someone to be a go-to guy.  Don't expect medical issues to drop this kid too far.

5. Cleveland Browns - Brian Orakpo, DE, Texas.
  James Harrison had 16 sacks last year; the Browns as a team had 17. 

6. Cincinnati Bengals - Eugene Monroe, OT, Virginia.  The Bengals line was once one of the best in the league, but is pretty bad now.  Monroe will be an instant upgrade.

7. Oakland Raiders - BJ Raji, DT, Boston College.  Who the hell knows what Al Davis may do, but if Cable gets any input, the former offensive line coach will likely look to upgrade the defensive line.  The 31st ranked run D was largely thanks to turds like Browns castoff Gerard Warren and the lackluster Tommy Kelly at DT.  Raji can fit in either a 3-4 or a 4-3 scheme.

8. Jacksonville Jaguars - Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois.  Brother of Niners TE Vernon Davis, Vontae is also an excellent athlete.  Unlike Vernon, Vontae's skills should translate to the field, too.  With the Jags bringing in Tra Thomas, the Jags could still use some IOL help and a MLB, but CB may offer the best value.  Having Davis opposite Rashean Mathis will go a long way in the pass-happy AFC South.

9. Green Bay Packers - Everette Brown, DE, Florida State.  The Packers are switching to the 3-4, and will look to upgrade their front 7.  Brown was productive at the collegiate level, but will likely need to transition to OLB, as he's not the right size for a 3-4 end.

10.  San Francisco 49ers - Michael Oher, OT, Ole Miss.   A team that allowed more sacks than the Steelers?  You bet they're taking the top tackle available.  Oher can play now on the right side and possibly transition to the left in the next couple of years.

11. Buffalo Bills - Brian Cushing, OLB, USC.
  Bills will be losing OLBs to free agency, and Cushing looks like a good fit here.

12. Denver Broncos - Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC.
  Speaking of USC LBs, the Broncos apparently have some issues with their defense.  The Cutler brouhaha is unsettling, but that D laid down like a sloppy whore last year.

13. Washington Redskins - Andre Smith, OT, Alabama.  Smith may slide, but it's likely that some team with OL needs will take him before he falls too far.  The Redskins have aging LTs (Samuels, Jansen) and may fit Smith in there.  If they can motivate Smith, the Redskins may get a bargain.  If not, Smith could be a huge bust.

14. New Orleans Saints - Malcolm Jennings, CB/FS, Ohio State.  The Saints let starting FS Josh Bullocks walk, and Jennings could be better at that position than corner.  Free agency has not helped the FO find a FS, and Jennings' poor 40 time won't hurt him too much.

15. Houston Texans - Clay Matthews, OLB, USC.   As noted, I expect a run on OLBs early this year.  Matthews will fit at strongside backer across from Demeco Ryans.  The former walk-on is a high-effort guy who can help a low-effort Texans D.

16. San Diego Chargers - Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU.  The Chargers let Igor Olshansky walk, and Jackson should be a good value in the middle of the round.  Some question about his upside, but he should be ready to play from the get-go.

17. New York Jets - Mark Sanchez, QB, USC.  All the QBs in this year's draft are dicey, and Sanchez has only one year of starting experience.  I don't think he goes top 10, but for the Jets, what's better?  Hoping that Kellen Clemens, Brian Ratliffe, or Erik Ainge pan out, or drafting Sanchez?

18. Chicago Bears - Eben Britton, OT, Arizona.  With the retirement of RT John Tait, the Bears find themselves looking in the middle of round 1 for an offensive tackle (Chris Williams in 2008).  Britton is a guy who should be able to play either OT spot, too.

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Chris Wells, Ohio State.  The Bucs' RBs have been the walking wounded, and Wells looks like a good fit.  They also need a QB, but won't reach here.

20. Detroit Lions - Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss.  The Lions's needs are many, but Peria would be a nice start in shoring up the DL. 

21. Philadelphia Eagles - Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma.   Pettigrew didn't run well at Indy, but the Eagles will take him here rather than risking waiting 7 picks.  The Eagles traded TE LJ Smith without shedding any tears.  In Pettigrew, they get more consistent hands, and a solid blocker.  And the Eagles like drafting linemen, so this almost qualifies.

22. Minnesota Vikings - Jeremy Maclin, WR, Missouri.   The Vikings haven't had any real threat at WR since the days of Moss and Carter, and Maclin is almost as good as Crabtree. 

23. New England Patriots - Connor Barwin, DE/OLB, Cincinnati.  The Patriots have a 4 picks in the first two rounds, and desperately need an infusion of youth on the defense.  Barwin is still a work in progress, but his athleticism was the talk of Indy.  Most mocks have Barwin much later, but the Patriots can afford to roll the dice here.  Why did the Patriots trade away Mike Vrabel?  Perhaps they have a replacement in mind, and won't wait to have him stolen away.

24. Atlanta Falcons - Larry English, OLB, Northern Illinois.  With Keith Brooking gone, the Falcons are another team desperate for OLB help.  English will switch from DE to OLB in the pros, but may not be the most smooth or speedy in coverage.  However, his pass-rush instincts will push him to the first rounds.

25. Miami Dolphins - DJ Moore, CB, Vanderbilt.  The Dolphins would love to have one of those OLBs fall here.  But they can also use an upgrade in their secondary, and while Moore is not optimal height he is a solid corner who should make some plays.

26. Baltimore Ravens - Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland. Derrick Mason is getting a little long in the tooth, and quick... who are the other Ravens receivers?  It seems too coincidental: a Maryland WR, working out with Flacco throwing him the ball at his Pro Day.  The Ravens taking this kid for a test drive?  He's big and fast, just perfect for the big-armed Unibrow.

27. Indianapolis Colts - Evander Hood, DT, Missouri.  The Colts desperately need to shore the middle, and Ziggy Hood may just make it to the first round after some excellent Indy numbers.  The Colts may look for Harrison's replacement, but the DT value here is greater.

28. Philadelphia Eagles - Alex Mack, C, California.   With Tra Thomas, the Eagles could reach for William Beatty, but he doesn't seem like a fit at all along that beefy line.  With Stacy Andrews on board, Todd Herremans may get the call at LT.  An upgrade over C Jamaal Jackson seems more in keeping with the Eagles draft philosophy than taking a WR high.  Eagles fans will be livid.

29. New York Giants - Hakeem Nicks, WR, North Carolina.  With Burress in serious hot water, the Giants won't have the same reluctance to draft a WR that their NFCE mates the Eagles do.  Nicks has iffy speed but great hands.  He'll need them to reel in some of those Eli ducks.

30. Tennessee Titans - Darius Butler, CB, Connecticutt.   Nick Harper is 34, and the Titans need a solid replacement.  Butler has the size, speed, and playmaking ability.  Some mocks have him lower, but I think he can creep into round 1.

31. Arizona Cardinals - Knowshon Moreno, RB, Georgia.  Moreno isn't the speedster that McCoy is, and Whiz has seen McCoy up close and personal.  But with Arrington gone, and Edge's future uncertain, Whiz will be happy to get Moreno here.  Wells may be a good fit with the Bucs, but Moreno is the superior back.  His shiftiness and vision will impact immediately.

32. Pittsburgh Steelers - Jarron Gilbert, DE, San Jose State.   The Steelers have shown a lot of interest in OL (obvious reasons) and CB (McFadden gone, Townshend's age).  But the DL is aging, and the defense faltered when Aaron Smith went down in 2007.  The OL players here would be a reach.  There are some CBs they could consider, but the 3-4 DEs are few and far between at the top of the draft.  Gilbert looks like a perfect fit, and he won't last long in round 2. 

Think of it this way: the DL plays well, but is getting old.  The OL plays poorly, but is young.  Which do you stock up on?  There should be some IOL value in rounds 2 and 3, but the DL quickly turns into a crap shoot.  There may be some feeling in the FO as well that these young OL players can improve with a minor personnel tweak rather than a complete overhaul.  Not that I agree with that train of thought.

33. Detroit Lions - James Laurinaitis, ILB, Ohio State.  With a top QB and DT in the fold, the Lions would be wise to work on upgrading the defense.  Many feel Laurinaitis is a high first round pick, but Craig Powell, Andy Katzenmoyer, A.J. Hawk and Bobby Carpenter have been first-round disappointments from OSU.  Still, it'd be hard to fuck up that Lions defense, right?

34. New England Patriots - William Beatty. The Patriots brought in Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden, but I don't buy that those guys are the answer.  Patriots will likely still draft a corner early, and could take Alphonso Smith here.  But Matt Light is 30, and they may like the idea of developing a guy like Beatty at their own pace.  Patriots can hunt for CB value a little later.

35.  St. Louis Rams - Alphonso Smith, CB, Wake Forest.   Like DJ Moore, Smith is a bit small, but sure can play.  The Rams just signed Ron Bartell, but their other corners have been less than stellar.  Smith and Bartell could be a huge 1-2 punch for the secondary.

36. Cleveland Browns - LeSean McCoy, RB, Pittsburgh.   Oh, I would hate to see this, but Cokeboy is getting old, and neither Jason Wright nor Jerome Harrison are legit #1 backs.  And of course, the Browns covet anything associated with Pittsburgh.

37. Seattle Seahawks - Louis Delmas, FS, Western Michigan. Brian Russell isn't athletic, and he's 30.  Louis Delmas is athletic, and will be 21.  Do that math... 

38.  Cincinnati Bengals - Percy Harvin, WR, Florida.   Harvin is widely seen as a solid round 1 prospect, but teams will need to figure out the right way to use him.  As a Reggie Bush-like WR/RB guy, he won't exactly replace Houshmandzadeh, but the Bengals will need a spark in their passing game, and Harvin can make big razzle dazzle plays happen.

39. Jacksonville Jaguars - Kenny Britt, WR, Rutgers.   Britt's 3,000+ yards receiving made him the Big East's all time leading receiver.  He's the WR threat the Jaguars have desperately needed forever.  Britt, too, is often mentioned in the round 1 mix, but I think this is closer to his spot.

40. Oakland Raiders - Michael Johnson, DE, Georgia Tech.  Another guy for the defensive line.  Where Raji is more a solid, known entity, Johnson is a a high bust potential athlete whose time as a Yellowjacket was not as productive as you'd want in a high round 2 pick, but his athleticism is hard to ignore.  Can Cable turn him into another Julius Peppers type end?

41. Green Bay Packers - Ron Brace, DT, Boston College. If Justin Harrell, the Packers' first round pick last year, can't play nose, Brace could certainly fill that role.  He might also have value at DE, although he's a bit thicker than the prototypical 3-4 DE. 

42. Buffalo Bills - Robert Ayers, DE, Tennessee. Bills need some D-line help to pressure QBs, and Ayers is rising on draft boards.  Had a good senior year, but has been inconsistent.

43. San Francisco 49ers - Aaron Maybin, DE/OLB, Penn State.  Maybin has been flying up the mocks, and he's an intriguing player.  But does he have a true NFL position?  Way too light to play end, and with added weight he looks sluggush as a DE.  I think he falls.

44. Miami Dolphins - Sean Smith, DB, Utah.   The Dolphins would love to have an OLB like Maybin slide all the way here, and could move up if they see him falling.  But Smith is also a great value, and would upgrade Renaldo Hill at FS (and could play corner if needed).  Matt Ware flashbacks may have teams scared off tall DBs, who may not have the ability to stick with speedy receivers.  Smith may be the exception, though.

45. New York Giants - Donald Brown, RB, Connecticut.  With Derrick Ward leaving, Brown is a prospect who can complement Brandon Jacobs. 

46. Houston Texans - Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon. Texans continue to improve the defense with a big, physical corner to play opposite Dunta Robinson.

47. New England Patriots - Patrick Chung, SS, Oregon.  Rodney Harrison may not return, and Brandon Merriweather is out of position at SS.  Chung would bring a physical presence much needed near the line.

48. Denver Broncos - Max Unger, C/T, Oregon.  Regardless of whether Cutler is under center... who's snapping him the ball?  Casey Wiegemann is 35, and Tom Nalen just retired.  Urgent need here.

49. Chicago Bears - Brian Robiskie, WR, Ohio State.  The Bears need to help their offense by solidifying the RT spot and getting some talent at WR.  That's probably a better gambit this year than looking for QB help in day 1.  Robiskie is the kind of solid and steady presence the Bears need.

50. Cleveland Browns - Jared Cook, TE, South Carolina.  New coach Eric Mangini wasn't shy about gettinf rid of Kellen Winslow.  Cook has already gotten interest from the Browns after his 4.49 40 in Indy.  More of a wideout pretending to be a TE, but a good addition for them.

51. Dallas Cowboys - William Moore, S, Missouri.  Cowboys ditched Roy Williams and signed Gerald Sensabaugh.  That doesn't scream upgrade.  Very real possibility the Eagles could trade back from 1 or up from their second round pick to scoop the Cowboys here.  Moore is very much in the mold of a Dawkins, a FS who plays like a SS.

52. New York Jets - Duke Robinson, G, Oklahoma.  They wanted Kemo in free agency, so they go out and get him in the draft. 

53. Philadelphia Eagles - Juaquin Iglesias, WR, Oklahoma.  Iglesias looks like a nice fit for the Eagles WCO, and would allow DeSean Jackson soom room to grow.

54. Minnesota Vikings - Phil Loadholt, OT, Oklahoma.
  Vikings have a desperate need at RT as Ryan Cook -- the 2006 version of Max Unger -- has shown he can't hack that spot.  Loadholt can.

55. Atlanta Falcons - Fili Moala, DT/DE, USC.  DT Grady Jackson is 35, and Moala will help bring some youth to the DL.

56. Miami Dolphins - Clint Sintim, OLB, Virginia.  Dolphins missed the premiere R1 talent at OLB, but find their man in R2.  Porter's not getting any younger, and Sintim would be a good fit.

57. Baltimore Ravens - Coye Francies, CB, San Jose State.  Ravens need CB help badly.  Chris McAllister is gone, and three of their best corners are over 30.

58. New England Patriots - Jamon Meredith, OT, South Carolina.
  Meredith is an athletic OL guy whose best fit may be at OG.  He's got great measurables, but needs some serious coaching.  He can replace Stephen Neal at OG.

59. Carolina Panthers - Paul Kruger, DE, Utah.  If the Panthers trade Peppers, they'll likely be getting a draft pick higher than 2.59, and will take the best DE available.  If they don't trade, they'll likely use their highest pick on someone they can groom a year.  Kruger isn't Peppers-sized (who is?), but he's productive. and DC Ron Meeks was at the Utah Pro Day to check Kruger out.

60. New York Giants - James Casey, TE, Rice.  Giants (potentially) lose Burress, Ward, and Shockey, and go right to work replacing them with Nicks, Brown, and Casey.  Sure, Kevin Boss was adequate, but these picks will give nothing for Eli to whine about.

  Yeah.  Two rounds, two DTs.  That's just how bad the middle of the Colts defense has been. 

62. Tennessee Titans - Eric Wood, C, Louisville.  The eventual replacement for Mawae.

63. Arizona Cardinals - Marcus Freeman, OLB, Ohio State.  Cards need help for an aging set of OLBs.  If Freeman can stay healthy, he'd be a nice addition across from Travis Laboy.

64. Pittsburgh Steelers - Kraig Urbik, OG, Wisconsin.   Steelers could get any one of a number of OGs here -- Urbik, Herman Johnson, Andy Levitre.  Urbik has played RG and RT, and could find a home at either of those spots here.  He's got more experience starting than Johnson, and is a bit faster on his feet.  Levitre is smallish (6'2") but smart; still, Urbik graded out better.  Getting a lineman who can win the RG spot and swing to RT if needed allows the Steelers to get the best available center in R3, and possibly a solid CB prospect as well.

There's your finished version.
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aj_law
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« Reply #4 on: Mar 17, 2009 at 15:33 »

Looks like Gilbert makes the most sense.
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