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Author Topic: Trade Down?  (Read 515 times)
Brinker
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« on: Apr 05, 2009 at 14:25 »

I have been looking at some mock drafts today as I am stuck at a listing all day (doing a realtor friend a favor).  Seems to me that none of the players that will probably be available at 32 are worthly of a 1st round selection.  What are the chances we trade down, bundle some other picks a have 2 in the 2nd and 2 in the 3rd or 4th.  I would be happy with walking out of this draft with only 5 or 6 selections if they were quality picks and not reaches.  I just think that barring a miracle that there will not be a worth while player available at the 32nd pick.


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pensodyssey
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« Reply #1 on: Apr 05, 2009 at 14:55 »

1.32 is hardly a coveted spot.  'Course, there's alot of idiots in charge of alot of NFL franchises.  But really... how valuable is 1.32? 
« Last Edit: Apr 05, 2009 at 17:18 by pensodyssey » Logged

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« Reply #2 on: Apr 05, 2009 at 18:24 »

1.32 is hardly a coveted spot.  'Course, there's alot of idiots in charge of alot of NFL franchises.  But really... how valuable is 1.32? 

Well... value being relative... I prefer 1.32 to, say, top 10.  Great boom/bust players there that you'll pay through the ass for.  Was Reggie Bush worth it, as a guy who's not a flop but...?

IMO, the latter half of R1 is the best spot for getting top quality at a decent price.  That said, ALL of R2 is chock full of guys who are going to be the solid workhorses of the league, on the (relative) cheap, with less upside/downside issues.  Timmons vs. Woodley is a great example.  Typically, R2 guys are less roll of the dice types, and therefore EVERY NFL team wants R2 picks, and wants to hold onto them. 

In other words, say Alex Mack is ~1.32 median value: a guy who should be a solid center, maybe a Pro Bowl caliber center, for 10 years.  Late R1 also epitomized by, say, Heath Miller.  But most teams would still rather take the R2 guy plus the R3 guy that the value chart says the late R1 is worth.  So, Woodley and Starks is preferable to Miller, to use examples that panned out. 

Putting yourself into another team's shoes, at 1.32, if we're looking to trade down, what players are teams likely to trade up for?  There aren't going to be a lot of guys that generate that kind of interest.  Maybe IF Josh Freeman slips, and one of those teams at the top of the order wants to leapfrog the other guys (e.g., Lions draft an OT at 1.1), I could see it.  Or a top WR slips.  There might be some late R1 interest in OLBs, or that might slide.

I did run a few possible trade down scenarios before, but let me see if the landscape has changed.

OK, here are five possible scenarios.  I'm sure others exist: I looked for teams with multiple R2 picks, who would lose little by packaging one to move up (e.g., other R2 stays with them).  Obviously, other permutations exist (find them!), including packaging future picks.  I, for one, would love to move down and get a R2 plus an impact round (1-3) in 2010, presumably a R2.

Scenario 1

Denver has an additional R1 and an additional R3 from the Cutler trade (plus a 2010 R1), and may well be looking to get 3 R1 picks this year.  They need to rebuild, and need to find a QB of the future in a QB-challenged draft.  Many possible strategies for the Broncos, but I suspect they concentrate on D and wait until the 2010 QB class (Bradford, McCoy, et al.).  Broncos might look to take Freeman at 1.18 and move ahead of other teams to 1.32  to get Ron Brace, NT.  In any event, the new regime needs swift and decisive drafting, including many playmakers.    Giving up their 2.48 + 3.84 for 1.32 is an exact value swap (590), and allows them to pick 1.12, 1.18, 1.32, and 3.79 in the top 100.  Plus, as mentioned, two first round picks next year.  Cutler's fine and all, but five first round picks in two years is some serious rebuilding.  Denver could also target late R1 targets in Tyson Jackson or Jarron Gilbert, giving them a R1 haul of, say, Maualuga, Freeman, and TJ/JG, or some combo involving Brace. 

Scenario 2

New England is fucking lousy with picks, what with Goodell blowing a money shot of comps all over Belichick's face.  With the Cassell trade, the R3 comp, and some R2 San Diego trade (whatever the fuck that was), the Pats have 6 in the top 100.  OK, they have some major rebuilding, but like the Broncos, might just want to convert more picks into fewer picks of greater impact.  Trading their 2.47 + 3.89 + 6.199 (a R6 is expendable) for the 1.32 is worth 587 to the Pats, 590 to us.  I suspect that drafting 1.23, 1.32, and then 2.34 and 2.58 would be pretty painless for the Patriots.  Four in the top 60?  You bet.  We  then get 2 R2 and 2 R3 for the 4 picks in R1-3 that we deserved.  At 2.47, still plenty of value for us.

Scenario 3

The Tuna Noodle Surprise.  Miami's 2.44 + 3.87 = 615 <--> Pitt's 1.32 + 5.168 = 614.  And let's face it, we have another R5 at 5.169, with the Faneca comp.  Miami could move up to grab a combo CB/OLB in R1.  Dolphins have some defensive needs, and with their quick turnaround and taste of the playoffs, Tuna may want to upgrade fast and hard.

Scenario 4

The Giants and Steelers have swapped picks before, and may be friendly again.  After all, dealing with the Giants got us Stonio Holmes, MVP.  Giants need some offensive upgrades, obviously at WR, but also at TE and RB.  If Pettigrew, Wells, or Nicks slid to late R1, the Giants would be like a badger with a tick on its ass to move up for the chance at two top playmakers in the first.  Their 2.45 + 3.91 = 586; close enough to 1.32 = 590 for us to pull that trigger. 

Scenario 5

Eric "The Genius" Mangina wants to make a big splash in Cleveland as the second Belichick defectee to take a hand at futility.  Normally, no AFCN foe would deign trade with us, and potentially help us out, but Mangina might break that mold.  The Browns needs are many and pressing.  If they see value at 1.32, the Queen of Kings might get on the horn to Colbert and trade 2.36 (a small drop down) plus 4.104, worth 626, for our 1.32 and 4.132, worth 630.  We slide down early, move way up in R4.  Consider: 3.96 and then 4.104, a mere 8 later.  Could be a nice cluster of value there.

Be interested to see if anyone can posit any other situations.

In writing this, I move from being highly doubtful to seeing some merit for the other guys in each of these scenarios. 
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