Week 04 - Oct 4 - San Diego

[JackSplat]

SD is at the bottom of the league in giving up FDs with an equally sucky ratio in both passing and rushing.  29 rushing and 27 passing.  topping it off they give up 43% third down conversions (bottom of the league as well).  If the steelers cant exploit this as offensive juggerbauts Oak and Mia did, well its going to be a very long season.

[Finnegans Wake]

In a move of desperation, I've started the playoff beard.

In a move of equal desperation, I've stopped trimming the assbeard, and am going rasta.

[Merman1983]

SD is at the bottom of the league in giving up FDs with an equally sucky ratio in both passing and rushing.  29 rushing and 27 passing.  topping it off they give up 43% third down conversions (bottom of the league as well).  If the steelers cant exploit this as offensive juggerbauts Oak and Mia did, well its going to be a very long season.

Good stats. I'm sure the Steelers will convert a very high percentage of their third downs. The big question is, will they convert red zone oppurtunities into touchdowns or outgain the Chargers 455-200 and win a nailbiter 12-7?

[Finnegans Wake]

Some other stats.

Football Outsiders ranks not by yardage but by down and distance evaluations.  Their DVOA for offense should be a positive number (the higher the better), for defense negative (higher negative number the better), and for STs also positive (higher is better).  At this early stage of the season, some teams (Denver) look over-inflated, others (Pitt?) under-.  But FWIW:

San Diego's offense is ranked 20th at -2.10%.  As noted, a negative offense = not good.  They're in the company of Miami (18, +1.20%), Tampa Bay (19, -0.70%), NY Jets (21, -2.10%), and Seattle (22, -2.90%).  Fairly lousy company save the Jets, who are dominating more on defense and game-managing otherwise. 

Pittsburgh's defense has had its lapses and is ranked 18th with an uncharacteristic +8.10%.  That puts it in the peer group of Washington (15, +3.60%), Oakland (16, +5.90%), New England (18, +8.60%), and Cincinnati (19, +8.90%). 

For reference sake, San Diego beat Oakland in week 1 24-20.  Even at our worst, expect 24 points allowed as an upper reference.

The San Diego defense is in an adjacent echelon below, at 20th and +10.60%.  So New England and Cinci, from above; also, Atlanta (21, +12.70%) and Buffalo (22, +14.40%).

The Pittsburgh offense is notable for out-performing what you might think, scoring aside.  It's ranked 10th, at +15.40%, which isn't bad at all.  Peers:  Atlanta (8, +20.80%), Denver (9, +20.30%), Jacksonville (?) (11, +13.70%), and Philadelphia (12, +13.40%). 

So when we have the ball, it would be like Atlanta's offense playing its defense.  Or perhaps a bit more accurately, we should be as successful as we were against Cinci.  Missed a lot of scoring opps, and put up 20.

Worst case scenario, SD 24-20. 

With Pola healthy, I think we could hold SD to 10.  Without, even with LT gimpy, I think 17's a decent guess.  One TD allowed fewer than Oakland?  Sure.

Offense easily played well enough to hang 31 on Cinci.  Easily.  A couple drives that stalled out, maybe a couple of chippy FGs as well.  This one's at home, last two on the road, and I think a defense that's playing worse than Cinci on our turf can cough up a lot of revenge scoring.

Maybe 34 is high, but if we get rolling, maybe not.  A more feasible guess might be 27.

27-17 if we play well enough, 34-17 if we roll.

[steelerfaninCO]

I like the Steelers 63-0.

[Manimal]

Ugh. I don't like the feel of this game. I also don't think the season is lost if we go 1-3. We have a very favorable schedule for two months after this game; if we drop to 1-3, we could still be 8-4 after 12 weeks without even improving much. There's a tough stretch at the end of the year, but 8-4 would put us in position at least for a playoff run. We wouldn't need a perfect December if we've got 8 wins by then.

OK, as for this game: we should be able to run like hell on the Chargers. But our running game, let's face it, looks merely average when playing against a poor-rushing defense. Anyone halfway capable of defending the run and we look like total shit running the ball. The Chargers are missing their key run defender, and that will help us. But I don't see us doing better than 25 carries for 90 yard or 30 for 105 or something like that.

We should be able to pass on them, sure. But how manyfriggin' TDs will we score? Anyone else notice that graphic that projected Ben's numbers to 16 games? At this rate he's going to throw for 4500 yards but with 15 TDs, which would have to be some kind of record for worst yards-to-TDs ratio. Not good.

And I think Rivers will have time to throw and guys will be open for them.

It's weird - for the year overall, I'm confident that we'll get our act together and play some great football later this year. But I also think we need to get healthy and gel a little bit in certain areas before that happens. But I have a sinking feeling about this game.

I think this one will be Chargers 20-16, and we'll be grumbling about the three short FGs we had to settle for in a game where the offense rolls up 400+ yards.

[SCacalaki]

pft.com reports that Redman elevated from the PS and Eason cut.

[Big Virgil]

That is awesome.  That also means Arians won't se him because he is a stupid arrogant stupid fucking prick.

[SCacalaki]

That's it BV....let it all out

[jonzr]

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/player/nfl/Y_Sports_NFL/15845065

Tiki Barber picks the Steelers in a close one and some fat guy picks the Chargers.