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Author Topic: The Iranian Situation  (Read 1048 times)
Preacherman0
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« on: Jun 15, 2009 at 10:56 »

I have been watching with great interest as opposition has mounted to the current administration in Iran, as reformers are finally feeling as if they have a voice.  In the previous Iranian election, the president (whose name I will not even begin to try and spell) won in a landslide because most of the nation realized that voting was futile.  Apparently, they have learned that lesson once again.

Mousavi has stated that this will be the last time that middle-class and reform-oriented citizens will vote because they now know that elections are a sham.  Less than two hours after polls were closed, hand-counted ballots declared the incumbent to be the "winner."  This is after polling hours were extended several times.  Also, the incumbent was declared the winner in the most reform-oriented regions of Iran.  The army also put out notices that they would "cut off the hands" of any reformers who protested the results.  No bias there. 

The Ayatollah has called for an investigation, but how "real" will the investigation be?  Two days ago, he declared the incumbent's re-election to be a "divine blessing," but now he is authorizing a fraud investigation.  Wonder what God will tell him about the outcome? 

It looks like the only hope for Iran will be massive protests, possibly violence, and most likely a crushing blow from the military much like we saw in Tianemen (sp?) Square.  It is sad.

The biggest issue that I see in this is the unbelievable danger that arises from theocracy.  Theocracy has never really worked, and it most likely never will.  It corrupts both government and religion, and anyone who believes (and I'm afraid many do) that we should be theocratic in this country are ignorant.  God tried to tell the Israelites of the Old Testament that they didn't really want a king, but they kept demanding one.  And it failed miserably.  Theocracy failed Rome after Constantine's "conversion," and it failed the Holy Roman Empire, and it failed those claiming to rule by divine right.  It has failed in the middle east, and it would be disastrous here. 

Why would we want our nation to be ruled by self-declared intrerpreters of God?  Yeah, that really works...

I hope and pray that the people in Iran who want change will continue to stand up, but I hope and pray even more that they will be protected from what I fear is coming to them from the government/military.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #1 on: Jun 15, 2009 at 13:52 »

Obviously rigged, given the margin and the timing of the announcement.  But would Mousavi have presided over a sea-change of reform, given his history?  Certainly debatable, but IMO it would have been a change of degree rather than order.  That said, I'm sure Obama would rather have dealth with anyone but Ahmadinejad.

What's interesting here is that the elections may have the opposite effect to that stated: rather than numb the populace, IMO it is creating outrage.  Had Ahmadinejad won 52%-48%, everyone would have slunk back to the status quo.  That this is so far out of whack is giving the new power base -- youth, intellectuals, moderates -- a moment where they may effect a more "real" change than the election itself.  If Khameini and Ahmadinejad cannot quash this quickly and fairly bloodlessly (at least one death so far), it could get ugly for the old guard.

Iranian politics is far more complicated than I can hope to understand, with backroom deals brokered and power plays that far exceed the knee-jerk idiocy a Glenn Beck could hope to fathom.  (I remember Beck banging the gong for nuking Iran a couple of years ago, as he hungrily lapped up the doom-and-gloom being spooned out by the Bushies and, on a daily basis, screaming about that being the end of the world.  Now it's something else, no doubt.)  Khameini backed Ahmadinejad, but also hedged his bets by persuading Khatami to step aside to allow Mousavi to become the primary challenger: why? 

Quote from: Time
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #2 on: Jun 16, 2009 at 07:53 »

Quote from: NY Times
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #3 on: Jun 17, 2009 at 16:49 »

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31380861/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa

Protests continue.  This leads me to believe that maybe the opposition is significant enough that there is concern about the army's ability to quash this by force. 





Duh...

There are apparently enough delusional people out there who still believe that we can sweep down from on high and make things happen.  If we stick our nose in, we run the risk of alienating both sides and eliminating any chance for change.  Revolutions happen, and the successful ones are rarely coerced.
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« Reply #4 on: Jun 17, 2009 at 18:03 »

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31380861/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa

Protests continue.  This leads me to believe that maybe the opposition is significant enough that there is concern about the army's ability to quash this by force. 





Duh...

There are apparently enough delusional people out there who still believe that we can sweep down from on high and make things happen.  If we stick our nose in, we run the risk of alienating both sides and eliminating any chance for change.  Revolutions happen, and the successful ones are rarely coerced.

No doubt Preacherman.  It's frightening to consider how the previous administration could have bungled this one up.
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #5 on: Jun 26, 2009 at 09:44 »

I've been reading some stuff on msn about groups fighting for democracy in other muslim nations.  They are discouraged that Obama has not been more vocal about the situation in Iran, so perhaps he needs to slowly, and in very measured ways, begin to respond. 

At the same time, if the "revolution" fails, he still has to work with the current Iranian leadership.  I suspect that things are worse than Ahmedinajad wants to let on, because he's spouting off about how this is all America's fault.  The rest of the world is saying we've been too silent, so he's basically building a Straw Man that he can knock down.

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« Reply #6 on: Jun 30, 2009 at 08:29 »

I've been reading some stuff on msn about groups fighting for democracy in other muslim nations.  They are discouraged that Obama has not been more vocal about the situation in Iran, so perhaps he needs to slowly, and in very measured ways, begin to respond. 

At the same time, if the "revolution" fails, he still has to work with the current Iranian leadership.  I suspect that things are worse than Ahmedinajad wants to let on, because he's spouting off about how this is all America's fault.  The rest of the world is saying we've been too silent, so he's basically building a Straw Man that he can knock down.

You couldn't pay me enough to be president.

I still think Obama's played the situation about right.  You knew the protests weren't about to effect regime change, and Ahmadinejad is already blaming everything (including the Neda woman's death) on the US/Brit/Israeli "interventionists."

It's going to be a slow evolution, as it was with the fall of communism in the USSR and Eastern Bloc.  The Wall did not fall overnight. 

Had Reagan openly backed Walesa and Solidarity, the movement there would have failed utterly.  Similar to this.  Four years from now, I don't think Ahmadinejad can run again, and that will be the turning point, IMO.  Already, the theocracy is being openly questioned in Iran for the first time EVER.  That itself is huge.
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« Reply #7 on: Jul 04, 2009 at 19:48 »

It's to bad these people don't have the right to bar arms.  I think It would be much harder for  the Iranian leaders to stay in power.
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