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Author Topic: What would you say if I said Sweed will lead the Steelers in rec. yds & Td's?  (Read 719 times)
Steelerdipwad
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« on: Aug 05, 2009 at 22:09 »

I just see Hines as getting older Holmes' size limiting him. I think Ben will eventually find the comfort zone af chucking it to the tall guy running real fast down the middle.
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« Reply #1 on: Aug 05, 2009 at 22:40 »

It works for me.  Limus was a bad arse in college - didn't get the press of his predecessor R. Williams, but he had similar talent.
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LambertsFrontTeeth
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« Reply #2 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 05:02 »

I'd disagree.

Not this year, but perhaps in 2010? For 2009, I'd settle for him being a close third to either Hines/Holmes/Heat for TD's.
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« Reply #3 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 06:47 »

Don't care who gets it as long as we're getting the yards and TDs.  IMO, Ward is good for 900+ and ~6 per for the next few, Holmes will be 1000 +/-, maybe a similar number of TDs, but if Sweed can really push it this year that might all be in flux.  Still, camp is camp, and the season is the season.

Wait and see.

I'm cautiously optimistic with Sweed.
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« Reply #4 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 06:56 »

I don't see it this year.  I predict we'll see a Plax-like season, hopefully without the idiotic moments.  Plays or games of brilliance followed by games where he disappears.  He doesn't have the experience to be the every down/every game threat to lead the team. But overall I think he's filling Washington's role and will get numbers in that range, maybe a little better.

If he progresses, next year will be his breakout year.
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give'emthaboot
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« Reply #5 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 07:53 »

I'd have to say I would be pretty upset, because I think for that to happen in '09 it would mean both 'Tone and Hines missed significant time due to injury and we'd likely miss the playoffs.

I do like the optimism though!
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Steelerdipwad
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« Reply #6 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 07:55 »

I don't see it this year.  I predict we'll see a Plax-like season, hopefully without the idiotic moments. 

In Plax's second season, he had 1008 yards and 6 TD's. That would lead the team IMO. But, yesh, let's see how he does when there's a guy in front of him, hitting him in the chops.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #7 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 09:18 »

Considering that when Plax was here, there was Hines and not much else (Randle El), it's much tougher for Sweed to take away from Hines and Holmes.    That said, Nate Washington was a UDFA from Tiffin who did a pretty nice job of filling a role here, had some skills and some drop issues, but at a baseline skill level I'd be inclined to say Sweed has better size, may have better hands (!), and may be better except in 40 time and vertical jump, FWIW.  That's to say, in the three active years Nate was here, he averaged 568.33 yards per season, and 4.0 TDs.  Best year was '08, with 631 yards and 3 TDs.  

Looking at Ben's passing in the past two regular seasons, 2007 he played (mostly) healthy and had a great year, 2008 he battled the separated shoulder all year, among other dings.  Still, Ben's yardage went up in 2008, even if his TD-INT and passer rating slid some.  If he's playing healthy, I think we may see the TD-INT rebound some, but the yardage and other stats have been pretty close of late.

2008: 281-469 for 3301, 17 TDs-15 INT, 80.1 rating
2007: 264-404 for 3154, 32 TDs-11 INT, 104.1 rating

Of that, the WR haul (with % of total - does not include Batch or Lefty):

2008: 183 catches (65.1% of completions), 2565 yards (77.7% of total), 15 TDs (88.2% of total TD passes)
2007:  174 catches (65.9% of completions), 2385 yards (75.6% of total), 21 TDs (65.6% of total TD passes)

The number of completions and percent of total yardage is amazingly steady.  The only flux, as mentioned, is TD passes, which I would imagine would rebound some, though perhaps not to 2007 levels.

Let's extrapolate this.   Assuming the running game is better with a healthy Parker and a healthy Mendenhall, the passing yardage probably won't exceed the 2008 level by much, if at all.  TD-INT ratio should improve if Ben's healthy, which is always an "if."  So I'll throw some arbitrary numbers out... I averaged completion, attempts, and yardage, then added 5% improvement.  For TD-INT, I did a plain Jane average.

2009:  286-458 for 3389, 25 TDs-13 INTs, 91.32 rating

Now, assuming about 65% of those completions go to WRs, and about 76% of the yardage, that comes to 186 receptions for 2576 yards.  If you take Ward, Holmes, and Washington's % of total receptions, yardage, and receiving TDs (including Batch and Lefty), they have:

Ward 2008: 25.6% rec., 21.6% yardage, 20.6% TDs
Ward 2007: 26.7% rec., 28.9% yardage, 36.8% TDs

Holmes 2008: 18.5% rec., 27.8% yardage, 23.5% TDs
Holmes 2007: 18.2% rec., 22.8% yardage, 26.3% TDs

Washington 2008: 10.3% rec., 13.3% yardage, 14.7% TDs
Washington 2007: 13.2% rec., 17.5% yardage, 15.8% TDs

The pass distribution pattern is strikingly similar year to year.  One might reasonably expect Sweed's percentage of receptions to fall in the 10.3%-13.2% range.  Assuming a best-case scenario, with Ward's number slipping slightly and Sweed taking the upper range, we'll say 13%.

The yardage number bounces back and forth between Ward and Holmes from 2007 to 2008, but those two combine for 49.4% and 51.7% of total receiving yardage over those two years.  One might expect a similar number, around 50%.  Washington's numbers of 17.5% and 13.3% show a 15+ YPC, and one might expect Sweed to draw the same sorts of receiving routes; the infamous drops were on the kind of long passes that often went to Washington.  Rather than use a % of total yardage, I'll round the YPC down to 15.0 even (giving a slight speed edge to Washington, although Sweed is stronger and may have better YAC).

Washington's TD totals were consistent, about 4 per year, about 15% of total.  Sweed may offer a better RZ target, especially with teams covering Ward, Holmes, and Miller.  I'll give him a bump here to perhaps 6 TDs, or 24% of the total receiving TDs.

Averaging out Holmes and Ward, and using the inputs I've described for Sweed, Ben's passing numbers (plus whatever odd yardage Batch or Dixon might add) might come to this.  This assumes very little goes to MacDonald, and Sweed fits right into the Washington role; Sweed could certainly exceed and have a Plax-like year, or have MacDonald leech away some stats, but I agree with msdmnr that this may be Sweed's year to get his feet, and next year may be his year to put up big numbers.  Given Arians's proclivity to distribute the ball in certain ratios, and his unwillingness to change gears suddenly, I don't see Sweed taking that second-year Plax role not through his own shortcoming, but because Arians can't let him rip.

Ward 2009: 72 rec., 839 yards, 7 TDs, 11.73 YPC
Holmes 2009: 53 rec., 961 yards, 8 TDs, 18.16 YPC
Sweed 2009: 37 rec., 558 yards, 6 TDs, 15.00 YPC

Other (MacDonald, Wallace) 2009: 24 rec., 219 yards, 1 TD, 8.99 YPC

That looks like a very safe estimate of how the breakdown might go.  I'm not sure I think Holmes's YPC will be that high, but overall I think it works.  MacDonald would likely get short gainers, crossing patterns etc., whereas I can see Wallace getting a couple nice deep balls, but overall I don't expect much out of the WR4 or WR5.

« Last Edit: Aug 06, 2009 at 09:24 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #8 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 09:27 »

Also, assuming ~150-200 yards passing from the backups, I could see Holmes's yardage total cross the 1000-yard threshhold.  Ward might go over 850, 875, and Sweed might get close to 575. 
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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #9 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 10:45 »

Quote
I don't see it this year.  I predict we'll see a Plax-like season, hopefully without the idiotic moments. 

In Plax's second season, he had 1008 yards and 6 TD's. That would lead the team IMO. But, yesh, let's see how he does when there's a guy in front of him, hitting him in the chops.

I was thinking more in pattern, less in production.  As Finny mentioned, Plax was the #2, while Sweed will be #3 WR option, and probably #4 overall with Heat.  Barring injury, Sweed will get maybe 2 receptions per game, which is about where Finny's got it estimated.  But it likely won't be consistent.  There will be two or three weeks he'll find a DB he can beat in single coverage and get 5 or 6 catches.  Then the rest of the season he'll get 0-2 per week.
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Steelerdipwad
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« Reply #10 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 10:57 »

I think you're giving Ward and Holmes too big of a piece of too small of a pie. I get what you're saying about the numbers being consistent over the last two years, but year one was a new playbook with a new QB coach teaching Ben a new delivery, and year two was a shot in the arm in Philly that screwed up his throwing motion for most of the year. Also, This year's schedule doesn't have us playing 8 of our games against top 10 pass defenses, we only have 4, and we have a lot more against bottom 20 pass defenses. So, I'm gonna say Ben has about the same number of attempts this year as last year, but he hits on 65% which is his "usual", rather than the 59% unusual he hit on last year. And I'll give him a 7.5 per attempt, rather than the 7.0 from last year. That gives him 3,800 yards for the year, and the receivers 2900 to split up between them. They've been sending Holmes deep over the last couple years, but Sweed's gonna get tapped to be the one to take the top off the defense now, and Holmes is gonna get more of those quick hitters where he can try to juke guys out, and the mid-range seam routes while Sweed gets the bombs and curls because of his speed. The reason I think he's gonna surpass Holmes and Ward is because Ben looks deep first, and Sweed's gonna be open, because teams are going to try to take away Holmes and Ward early in the year, forcing Sweed to make plays. Also, you can see it already, Tomlin is resting Ward more and more to have him fresh for important downs. Now, if he drops the first couple, all bets are off. But I see the numbers as something like Sweed 900 yds @ 17 ypc, Holmes 800 yds @ 15 ypc Ward 700 yds @ 11 ypc (quick math, that may be higher numbers, but the same proportions). The other receivers splitting the rest.
« Last Edit: Aug 06, 2009 at 11:03 by Steelerdipwad » Logged

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