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Author Topic: What would you say if I said Sweed will lead the Steelers in rec. yds & Td's?  (Read 754 times)
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« Reply #10 on: Aug 06, 2009 at 10:57 »

I think you're giving Ward and Holmes too big of a piece of too small of a pie. I get what you're saying about the numbers being consistent over the last two years, but year one was a new playbook with a new QB coach teaching Ben a new delivery, and year two was a shot in the arm in Philly that screwed up his throwing motion for most of the year. Also, This year's schedule doesn't have us playing 8 of our games against top 10 pass defenses, we only have 4, and we have a lot more against bottom 20 pass defenses. So, I'm gonna say Ben has about the same number of attempts this year as last year, but he hits on 65% which is his "usual", rather than the 59% unusual he hit on last year. And I'll give him a 7.5 per attempt, rather than the 7.0 from last year. That gives him 3,800 yards for the year, and the receivers 2900 to split up between them. They've been sending Holmes deep over the last couple years, but Sweed's gonna get tapped to be the one to take the top off the defense now, and Holmes is gonna get more of those quick hitters where he can try to juke guys out, and the mid-range seam routes while Sweed gets the bombs and curls because of his speed. The reason I think he's gonna surpass Holmes and Ward is because Ben looks deep first, and Sweed's gonna be open, because teams are going to try to take away Holmes and Ward early in the year, forcing Sweed to make plays. Also, you can see it already, Tomlin is resting Ward more and more to have him fresh for important downs. Now, if he drops the first couple, all bets are off. But I see the numbers as something like Sweed 900 yds @ 17 ypc, Holmes 800 yds @ 15 ypc Ward 700 yds @ 11 ypc (quick math, that may be higher numbers, but the same proportions). The other receivers splitting the rest.
« Last Edit: Aug 06, 2009 at 11:03 by Steelerdipwad » Logged

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