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Question: What percentage of remaining games will this team win?
100% - 0 (0%)
92% - 0 (0%)
85% - 4 (21.1%)
77% - 4 (21.1%)
69% - 6 (31.6%)
62% - 4 (21.1%)
54% or less - 1 (5.3%)
Total Voters: 0

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Author Topic: Win % going forward  (Read 1983 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Sep 28, 2009 at 09:24 »

Given the performance over the first three games (execution issues from Holmes, Sweed, Reed, Carter, et al.; inability to score TDs early and anything at all late; inability to stop other teams in the fourth quarter), predict what percentage of games you think this team can realistically win against the remainder of the slate.

4 Oct 04 SD @ PIT 
5 Oct 11 PIT @ DET  
6 Oct 18 CLE @ PIT  
7 Oct 25 MIN @ PIT  
8 Bye  
9 Nov 09 PIT @ DEN  
10 Nov 15 CIN @ PIT  
11 Nov 22 PIT @ KC  
12 Nov 29 PIT @ BAL  
13 Dec 06 OAK @ PIT  
14 Dec 10 PIT @ CLE  
15 Dec 20 GB @ PIT  
16 Dec 27 BAL @ PIT  
17 Jan 03 PIT @ MIA  
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« Reply #1 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 09:52 »

I hope 10-6 is good enough for a wild card spot. I picked 69 percent.

Your point about not being able to score late is what is driving me nuts about this team. It always has. Last year I remember repeatedly commenting that with the Steelers (on offensive series, that is), you can waive the Terrible Towel like crazy on the first drive, then the waiving decreases significantly. Soon enough, it has been three quarters since you last waived your Terrible Towel while the Black and Gold had the ball and it's only because the D was able to keep the opponent off the board.

They do not possess a running game that should lead to low-scoring, run-out-the-clock second halves. It's basically as though they get too conservative and shit their pants.

Roethlisberger is doing his job. Wallace is doing his job. And, to be honest, so is the OL. (Side note: why isn't Miller being thrown to often in the red zone?) The rest of the WRs, FTMP, aren't doing their jobs (Sweed should be released immediately, IMO).

On D, sure they're keeping the scoring down, but the lack of pressure, sacks and takeaways are intangibles that mean way more than individual stat lines. Those things are momentum changers and other than the blocked kick in Game 1, I don't think the Steelers D has changed momentum for the Steelers this year. I can't wait for Troy to get back, but I'm not so sure that even the return of a badass such as him will do the trick. Further, I fear that he will press to get back too soon and then will screw himself up even worse.
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Manimal
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 09:58 »

We have a lot of major problems, but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are and enable us to play meaningful games in December. That said, we don't have the look of a team that will be among the elites (as in, top 5 or 6) at year's end.


4 Oct 04 SD @ PIT  L - my faith in our secondary is low and Rivers can pick it apart (1-3)
5 Oct 11 PIT @ DET  W - we will stomp on the rookie and get some confidence back (2-3)
6 Oct 18 CLE @ PIT  W - the Browns are inept in every phase, so no biggie here (3-3)
7 Oct 25 MIN @ PIT  W - I do think we can exploit the Vikings pass D, shut down Peterson, and force old-man Favre to make mistakes (4-3)
8 Bye  
9 Nov 09 PIT @ DEN  W - With a week to prepare, we should beat a team that has no business beating anybody halfway decent. (5-3)
10 Nov 15 CIN @ PIT  W - We can't possibly be swept by this bunch can we? A close win, but a win nonetheless (6-3)
11 Nov 22 PIT @ KC  L - We will screw the pooch against another terrible team before we're done, I have a feeling. (6-4)
12 Nov 29 PIT @ BAL  W - yet somehow we will find a way to beat Baltimore and pull to within a game of the Ravoons. (7-4)
13 Dec 06 OAK @ PIT  W - Somehow a close win, after the high of beating Balty. (8-4)
14 Dec 10 PIT @ CLE  W - Blowout win. (9-4)
15 Dec 20 GB @ PIT  L - We kick FGs, the Pack score TDs, we lose 28-23. (9-5)
16 Dec 27 BAL @ PIT  L - We're bound to lose to these guys at some point, and our play doesn't inspire confidence. (9-6)
17 Jan 03 PIT @ MIA  W - We beat an overrated Miami team, barely, and squeak into the playoffs. (10-6)

so, basically, I see us going 9-4 the rest of the way.
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 10:03 »

On D, sure they're keeping the scoring down, but the lack of pressure, sacks and takeaways are intangibles that mean way more than individual stat lines. Those things are momentum changers and other than the blocked kick in Game 1, I don't think the Steelers D has changed momentum for the Steelers this year. I can't wait for Troy to get back, but I'm not so sure that even the return of a badass such as him will do the trick. Further, I fear that he will press to get back too soon and then will screw himself up even worse.

You make a lot of great points I agree with. And I agree with your take on the lack of big plays from the D, although I would suggest a cause.

The D is, I think, doing a reasonably good job -- our opponents are not scoring early, at all. They're not even moving the ball. The bigger issue is that our offense is not putting points on the board, which would help greatly in putting the opposition in unfavorable situations, where our defense can tee off on the QB and create havoc.

Instead, we dominate in terms of yardage, but without scoring TDs, so our opponents can stay patient, stay within their gameplan, and so on. Our defense, like even the best NFL defense, can't do three-and-outs every single possession when the other team can run its full playbook.
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 10:05 »

but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are 

I suspect most of us thought the first three weeks of the schedule would make us look pretty good and the very least, 2 and 1 good.
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« Reply #5 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 10:11 »

but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are 

I suspect most of us thought the first three weeks of the schedule would make us look pretty good and the very least, 2 and 1 good.

Very true!

I am assuming that some of our worst mistakes from the last two weeks will be addressed and happen a lot more rarely.

But there is no doubt that we will finish 6-10 if we don't:

1. Make better coaching/playcall decisions
2. Score more TDs in the red zone
3. Stop dropping passes

If these problems keep happening, we're going 5-11 or 6-10. I just think that there's more than enough talent and football smarts on this team that these issues will be solved.

Or, we could see a muddle, where they get fixed inconsistently and we finish 8-8. I actually think we WOULD finish 8-8 if we didn't have such an easy schedule. The Bengals are bad, but surely they are a tier above the Raiders, Browns, Lions, and maybe Chiefs, teams which are unprofessional, seriously untalented, or both.
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« Reply #6 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 11:11 »

but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are 

I suspect most of us thought the first three weeks of the schedule would make us look pretty good and the very least, 2 and 1 good.

Actually, I just assumed they'd be undefeated at this point.  Can't say when I had them losing, but not even one loss was expected before October.
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« Reply #7 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 11:19 »

I still think they finish the season 11-5.
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« Reply #8 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 11:57 »

I think we're looking at 10-6.  I thought we'd be 2-1 with a loss to the Titans.  Never dreamed we'd make the Bears and Bengals look good...and that's exactly what we did.  The Bears may be a decent team, but I'm still not remotely impressed with Cincy.

We win:  Detroit, Cleveland (2), Oakland, KC, Cincy, Denver

We lose:  Minnesota, San Diego, Ravens (1)

Toss-up:  Green Bay, Miami, Ravens (1)

My guess is that we go 3-3 vs. those teams I have as losses and the teams I have as toss-ups.  There is no way we lose the second round to Cincy.
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« Reply #9 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 12:22 »

I think if they get thing turned around, to some degree (come on, are they really going to fire Arians?), they can finish 10-6.
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« Reply #10 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 13:33 »

I think we're looking at 10-6.  I thought we'd be 2-1 with a loss to the Titans.  Never dreamed we'd make the Bears and Bengals look good...and that's exactly what we did.  The Bears may be a decent team, but I'm still not remotely impressed with Cincy.

We win:  Detroit, Cleveland (2), Oakland, KC, Cincy, Denver

We lose:  Minnesota, San Diego, Ravens (1)

Toss-up:  Green Bay, Miami, Ravens (1)

My guess is that we go 3-3 vs. those teams I have as losses and the teams I have as toss-ups.  There is no way we lose the second round to Cincy.

I agree, with the caveat that going 3-3 would put as at 11-5, rather than 10-6.  I think we drop one of the remaining "gimme" games, to get to 10-6, and be one the precipice of elimination.

In the preseason look at the sched, thought we'd win @ Chi and get caught napping @ Cinci.  Well, the two in combo are an absolute disaster.  After Chicago, we should have come out and stomped the Bengals guts out, rather than letting the same insipid shit happen again.  Cinci was getting some media yammer for an improved defense, and Cornhole Palmer being back, but I thought they looked like an enormous mountain of shit.  Worse, much worse, than I expected.  And that just makes the loss that much more unfathomable.

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« Reply #11 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 13:49 »

After Chicago, we should have come out and stomped the Bengals guts out, rather than letting the same insipid shit happen again.  Cinci was getting some media yammer for an improved defense, and Cornhole Palmer being back, but I thought they looked like an enormous mountain of shit.  Worse, much worse, than I expected.  And that just makes the loss that much more unfathomable.



Wholeheartedly agree. They - and the Bears - suck, yet we let them hang around they got the Ws.

Jonzr - I thought 2-1 was a worst-case scenario, with Tennessee being the likely loss in that scenario. Like you, I thought 3-0 was completely doable. Never in a million years did I think under the guidance of Mike Tomlin would a defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers team be as lacadaisical as the unmotivated, Bill Cowher-led '06 team. I thought with Tomlin, focus wouldn't be an issue...ever. But clearly many of the players - and shit, even some of the coaches...dare I say even the great Dick Lebeau? - seem to be way off their mental game.
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« Reply #12 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 13:59 »

After Chicago, we should have come out and stomped the Bengals guts out, rather than letting the same insipid shit happen again.  Cinci was getting some media yammer for an improved defense, and Cornhole Palmer being back, but I thought they looked like an enormous mountain of shit.  Worse, much worse, than I expected.  And that just makes the loss that much more unfathomable.



Wholeheartedly agree. They - and the Bears - suck, yet we let them hang around they got the Ws.

Jonzr - I thought 2-1 was a worst-case scenario, with Tennessee being the likely loss in that scenario. Like you, I thought 3-0 was completely doable. Never in a million years did I think under the guidance of Mike Tomlin would a defending Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh Steelers team be as lacadaisical as the unmotivated, Bill Cowher-led '06 team. I thought with Tomlin, focus wouldn't be an issue...ever. But clearly many of the players - and shit, even some of the coaches...dare I say even the great Dick Lebeau? - seem to be way off their mental game.

All the coaches bear the brunt here.  We've had 4Q collapse issues going back to XLIII, which never should have been that close, really.  Arians, WTF else can I say that hasn't been said.  Tomlin, maybe too much a macro manager and unwilling to stir shit up with his coordinators?  The hands-off approach isn't working.

That said, I think Chicago is a better team than you give them credit for.  Their D is at least pretty competent, evem without Urlacher, and the big issue on offense is WR talent and getting in synch with Cutler.  They've been a playoff team or broderline playoff team most years, and thus no worse than middle of the pack or better; I'm inclined to think they're in the 10-15 range.  And we owned them.  Didn't take advantage in any way, but whatever.
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« Reply #13 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 16:09 »

That's the frustrating thing.  You can point to several "reasons" for both of these games, but it's pretty much a case of everyone looking around and saying, "Wait a minute...what the hell just happened?"
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« Reply #14 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 16:54 »

That's the frustrating thing.  You can point to several "reasons" for both of these games, but it's pretty much a case of everyone looking around and saying, "Wait a minute...what the hell just happened?"

Exactly. I can't pinpoint one reason or another for yesterday's debacle. All of a sudden, it just turned out to be an L.

Was the OL great? No, but it was good and not the cause for the loss.

Was the D terrible? Absolutely not. In fact, they played pretty well - just not "great."

Were the O skills positions the cause? Maybe. The running game looked asi asi, but nothing to write home about.
Our WRs (barring Wallace) can't catch a cold.

Was the STs to blame? Not really, but I had a premonition (sp?) right before the fake punt that that was going to happen. Hell, it almost seemed as though the cameraman knew it was coming and had the lens slightly pointed at the ball carrier prior to the snap.

That covers the players, which really doesn't give us much to go on. That leaves coaching, which, as Finny has so eloquently pointed out, deserves the brunt of the blame. Tomlin seems to be on a mission use more coach-speak cliches than any other coach in history and won't do anything from a personnel standpoint to address shortcomings. Arians is a waste, but besides Roethlisberger (or potentially Batch), who would call the plays if the Steelers did the unthinkable and got rid of a coach midseason?

I'm frustrated as a mofo because, as you mentioned, PM, there is no isolated thing to which to point to say "Ah, there it is. If we can just correct that, we'll be rolling." This is a very non-cohesive team on the field at this point. Let's hope they gel (eat your coach-speakin' heart out, Tomlin).
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« Reply #15 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 17:01 »

I was SCREAMING at the TV to watch for a fake punt, but on the punt prior to the fake punt punt.  That means me and Marvin are on the same wave length, which ain't sayin a whole lot for him!!!!! sign5
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« Reply #16 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 23:53 »

Guess im the odd man out.  i'm going with 54% or less, just for the reason that every game they play will be close regardless of the team.  thats a 50/50 chance if you ask me.

Like it or not, this teams makeup is pass oriented.  The more the run is "established", the less points will be on the score board IMO and the greater chance of teams hangin around till the end.  maybe next time the coaching staff will go for the kill instead of trying to get willie his 100 yards

In all seriousness, Ben should be heaving it 50 times a game from the gun and 4 wide for the majority.

those assbags in cincy are dancing around their locker room like the worm has finally turned.  just a shame they have no idea how much they actually suck. 
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« Reply #17 on: Sep 29, 2009 at 06:39 »

Quote
those assbags in cincy are dancing around their locker room like the worm has finally turned.  just a shame they have no idea how much they actually suck.

During the game, I couldn't believe how bad Palmer looked. He wasn't even getting the ball close to his receivers. And then we let them hang around so he can pull out the win.

Unless it's less than a yard and Ben can sneak it, then it's a passing down.

And with out kicker going all VanderJeff lately, no FG attempts unless it's under 40 yards.

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« Reply #18 on: Sep 29, 2009 at 08:24 »

yeah, one of the more surprising things to me is how bad the Bengals looked. I was among those who thought they could be a playoff contender, on the premise that Palmer was back and the defense was improved.

But Palmer is not the player he was in '04 - '06, and I can't figure out why. Have his injuries taken that much of a toll on him? He's basically late Drew Bledsoe now. Not a scary player at all, I think.

Their defense is not impressive, although they seem to have some decent cover guys out there. Neither the allegedly improved run defense or pass rush was in evidence on Sunday, and that against one of the worst O-Lines in Steeler history.

We should have beaten this team by 21. And yes, we have to think of our offense as a pass-oriented unit. We have to come out in shotgun and run the no-huddle until and unless the game is in hand, IMO.
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« Reply #19 on: Sep 29, 2009 at 10:03 »

@jacksplat and @manimal -

As much as I enjoyed watching the Dolphins' commanding performance a couple of Mondays ago and as much as I like to recall the Steelers being able to put together similar performances in a more traditional, smashmouth style of football (than the Wildcat), I'm with you - we must pass early and often and never stop. If we can do that AND take time off the clock, even better.

Roethlisberger is at a point in his career that I fully trust he will make smart decisions when throwing the ball and even when asked to do so frequently. Sure he'll throw INTs, but I don't think he will do so regularly. In fact, the only part of his game that I question is his unwillingness to simply throw the ball away instead of taking a sack when a sack is one of only two potential results on a play and the other being an incomplete pass (read: I know he makes a lot of big plays scrambling, but sometimes it must be apparent back there that a big play is not in the cards on that particular down and an incomplete pass is better than a sack).
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« Reply #20 on: Sep 29, 2009 at 10:21 »

Quote
Roethlisberger is at a point in his career that I fully trust he will make smart decisions when throwing the ball and even when asked to do so frequently.

Check the blog later today.  I will be addressing this in the "BA/BS Report" for the week!

Yeah, I'm a shameless self-promoter, but I'm still lobbying for the radio gig!
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« Reply #21 on: Sep 29, 2009 at 10:42 »

I think they go 11-5, and 10-3 the rest of the way. Split with the Ratbirds, lose to San Diego and GB. Should absolutely be 3-0 right now. Just seems like there is no killer instinct with this team right now. Got to finish drives, and finish off games that are winnable. Reed has got to make FGs, and Sweed needs to be inactive. Period.
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