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Question: What percentage of remaining games will this team win?
100% - 0 (0%)
92% - 0 (0%)
85% - 4 (21.1%)
77% - 4 (21.1%)
69% - 6 (31.6%)
62% - 4 (21.1%)
54% or less - 1 (5.3%)
Total Voters: 0

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Author Topic: Win % going forward  (Read 2005 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Sep 28, 2009 at 09:24 »

Given the performance over the first three games (execution issues from Holmes, Sweed, Reed, Carter, et al.; inability to score TDs early and anything at all late; inability to stop other teams in the fourth quarter), predict what percentage of games you think this team can realistically win against the remainder of the slate.

4 Oct 04 SD @ PIT 
5 Oct 11 PIT @ DET  
6 Oct 18 CLE @ PIT  
7 Oct 25 MIN @ PIT  
8 Bye  
9 Nov 09 PIT @ DEN  
10 Nov 15 CIN @ PIT  
11 Nov 22 PIT @ KC  
12 Nov 29 PIT @ BAL  
13 Dec 06 OAK @ PIT  
14 Dec 10 PIT @ CLE  
15 Dec 20 GB @ PIT  
16 Dec 27 BAL @ PIT  
17 Jan 03 PIT @ MIA  
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Joetorious
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« Reply #1 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 09:52 »

I hope 10-6 is good enough for a wild card spot. I picked 69 percent.

Your point about not being able to score late is what is driving me nuts about this team. It always has. Last year I remember repeatedly commenting that with the Steelers (on offensive series, that is), you can waive the Terrible Towel like crazy on the first drive, then the waiving decreases significantly. Soon enough, it has been three quarters since you last waived your Terrible Towel while the Black and Gold had the ball and it's only because the D was able to keep the opponent off the board.

They do not possess a running game that should lead to low-scoring, run-out-the-clock second halves. It's basically as though they get too conservative and shit their pants.

Roethlisberger is doing his job. Wallace is doing his job. And, to be honest, so is the OL. (Side note: why isn't Miller being thrown to often in the red zone?) The rest of the WRs, FTMP, aren't doing their jobs (Sweed should be released immediately, IMO).

On D, sure they're keeping the scoring down, but the lack of pressure, sacks and takeaways are intangibles that mean way more than individual stat lines. Those things are momentum changers and other than the blocked kick in Game 1, I don't think the Steelers D has changed momentum for the Steelers this year. I can't wait for Troy to get back, but I'm not so sure that even the return of a badass such as him will do the trick. Further, I fear that he will press to get back too soon and then will screw himself up even worse.
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Manimal
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 09:58 »

We have a lot of major problems, but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are and enable us to play meaningful games in December. That said, we don't have the look of a team that will be among the elites (as in, top 5 or 6) at year's end.


4 Oct 04 SD @ PIT  L - my faith in our secondary is low and Rivers can pick it apart (1-3)
5 Oct 11 PIT @ DET  W - we will stomp on the rookie and get some confidence back (2-3)
6 Oct 18 CLE @ PIT  W - the Browns are inept in every phase, so no biggie here (3-3)
7 Oct 25 MIN @ PIT  W - I do think we can exploit the Vikings pass D, shut down Peterson, and force old-man Favre to make mistakes (4-3)
8 Bye  
9 Nov 09 PIT @ DEN  W - With a week to prepare, we should beat a team that has no business beating anybody halfway decent. (5-3)
10 Nov 15 CIN @ PIT  W - We can't possibly be swept by this bunch can we? A close win, but a win nonetheless (6-3)
11 Nov 22 PIT @ KC  L - We will screw the pooch against another terrible team before we're done, I have a feeling. (6-4)
12 Nov 29 PIT @ BAL  W - yet somehow we will find a way to beat Baltimore and pull to within a game of the Ravoons. (7-4)
13 Dec 06 OAK @ PIT  W - Somehow a close win, after the high of beating Balty. (8-4)
14 Dec 10 PIT @ CLE  W - Blowout win. (9-4)
15 Dec 20 GB @ PIT  L - We kick FGs, the Pack score TDs, we lose 28-23. (9-5)
16 Dec 27 BAL @ PIT  L - We're bound to lose to these guys at some point, and our play doesn't inspire confidence. (9-6)
17 Jan 03 PIT @ MIA  W - We beat an overrated Miami team, barely, and squeak into the playoffs. (10-6)

so, basically, I see us going 9-4 the rest of the way.
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Manimal
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 10:03 »

On D, sure they're keeping the scoring down, but the lack of pressure, sacks and takeaways are intangibles that mean way more than individual stat lines. Those things are momentum changers and other than the blocked kick in Game 1, I don't think the Steelers D has changed momentum for the Steelers this year. I can't wait for Troy to get back, but I'm not so sure that even the return of a badass such as him will do the trick. Further, I fear that he will press to get back too soon and then will screw himself up even worse.

You make a lot of great points I agree with. And I agree with your take on the lack of big plays from the D, although I would suggest a cause.

The D is, I think, doing a reasonably good job -- our opponents are not scoring early, at all. They're not even moving the ball. The bigger issue is that our offense is not putting points on the board, which would help greatly in putting the opposition in unfavorable situations, where our defense can tee off on the QB and create havoc.

Instead, we dominate in terms of yardage, but without scoring TDs, so our opponents can stay patient, stay within their gameplan, and so on. Our defense, like even the best NFL defense, can't do three-and-outs every single possession when the other team can run its full playbook.
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Joetorious
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 10:05 »

but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are 

I suspect most of us thought the first three weeks of the schedule would make us look pretty good and the very least, 2 and 1 good.
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« Reply #5 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 10:11 »

but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are 

I suspect most of us thought the first three weeks of the schedule would make us look pretty good and the very least, 2 and 1 good.

Very true!

I am assuming that some of our worst mistakes from the last two weeks will be addressed and happen a lot more rarely.

But there is no doubt that we will finish 6-10 if we don't:

1. Make better coaching/playcall decisions
2. Score more TDs in the red zone
3. Stop dropping passes

If these problems keep happening, we're going 5-11 or 6-10. I just think that there's more than enough talent and football smarts on this team that these issues will be solved.

Or, we could see a muddle, where they get fixed inconsistently and we finish 8-8. I actually think we WOULD finish 8-8 if we didn't have such an easy schedule. The Bengals are bad, but surely they are a tier above the Raiders, Browns, Lions, and maybe Chiefs, teams which are unprofessional, seriously untalented, or both.
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jonzr
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« Reply #6 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 11:11 »

but the schedule will help us look a lot better than we are 

I suspect most of us thought the first three weeks of the schedule would make us look pretty good and the very least, 2 and 1 good.

Actually, I just assumed they'd be undefeated at this point.  Can't say when I had them losing, but not even one loss was expected before October.
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Merman1983
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« Reply #7 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 11:19 »

I still think they finish the season 11-5.
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #8 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 11:57 »

I think we're looking at 10-6.  I thought we'd be 2-1 with a loss to the Titans.  Never dreamed we'd make the Bears and Bengals look good...and that's exactly what we did.  The Bears may be a decent team, but I'm still not remotely impressed with Cincy.

We win:  Detroit, Cleveland (2), Oakland, KC, Cincy, Denver

We lose:  Minnesota, San Diego, Ravens (1)

Toss-up:  Green Bay, Miami, Ravens (1)

My guess is that we go 3-3 vs. those teams I have as losses and the teams I have as toss-ups.  There is no way we lose the second round to Cincy.
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Big Virgil
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« Reply #9 on: Sep 28, 2009 at 12:22 »

I think if they get thing turned around, to some degree (come on, are they really going to fire Arians?), they can finish 10-6.
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