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Author Topic: playoff scenarios  (Read 5473 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #10 on: Dec 14, 2009 at 10:37 »

There are a LOT of viable playoff scenarios.

Virtually none of them involve the Steelers, though.
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Steelerdipwad
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« Reply #11 on: Dec 14, 2009 at 11:21 »

There are a LOT of viable playoff scenarios.

Virtually none of them involve the Steelers, though.

I haven't dropped acid since college, but if I did, I think I could make some of those scenarios in which the Steelers get in actually seem plausible.
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #12 on: Dec 20, 2009 at 19:37 »

OK, after the 10th best passing effort in league history (as far as yards, and they needed every last one) we can maybe talk what has to happen for the Steelers to get in. There are several scenarios, but I think this is the most likely route if it happens....

Steelers beat Balty and Miami to finish 9-7.

Indy beats the Jets at home. Steelers lose the tiebreaker to the Jets, so we need them to finish 8-8 or worse. The Jets also play at Cincy.
NE beats Jax and they finish 8-8 or worse as they also own the first tiebreaker. Jax finishes at Cleveland.
Philly beats Den at home. If Den finishes 9-7 or worse they are out, unless multiple teams are tied. They finish at home with KC.
Houston must lose on the road at Miami, or at home against the Pats. They have the tiebreaker over Pit if they finish 9-7. Although if Pit, Den, and Hou finished tied at 9-7, Den gets in.

Not impossible.
« Last Edit: Dec 20, 2009 at 19:40 by steelerfaninCO » Logged
Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #13 on: Dec 20, 2009 at 19:44 »

Most scenarios involve Steelers winning out, Houston beating Miami in Miami week 16, and Oakland beating Balty in Oakland week 17.

Still a crazy thin possibility, wafer thin. 
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #14 on: Dec 20, 2009 at 19:59 »

Most scenarios involve Steelers winning out, Houston beating Miami in Miami week 16, and Oakland beating Balty in Oakland week 17.

Still a crazy thin possibility, wafer thin. 

Actually, we don't want Houston beating Miami. If Houston and Pit both finish 9-7, Pit is out. We want Miami to BEAT Houston. This is assuming Pitt beats Miami on the last weekend.

I still think Balty is in. Sure if Oak beats Balty on the last day, it makes it easier for the Steelers to get in, but I really think there is a better than shitty chance that the Steelers can squeek in with Balty.

It's not the help that worries me, it's finishing 9-7 that will prove to be hard. This would be the dream scenario- NE beats Jax, Philly beats Den, Mia beats Hou, and Indy beats the Jets, and Pitt beats Balty. If that happens next week, it would be win and your in for the Steelers in Miami.



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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #15 on: Dec 20, 2009 at 20:20 »

I feel like I'm back in the mid to late 80s, figuring out what bizzare scenario would get the 8-8 or 9-7 Steelers to sneak into the playoffs.

Shame, because this team should be better than that.  But you are what you are.

I think the help will be harder, BTW.  Some team is going to sack up and beat someone they shouldn't.
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bamf16
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« Reply #16 on: Dec 20, 2009 at 20:36 »

Correct me if I'm wrong, but looking at the NFL's website, I see this...

"Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1.  Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants."

So if we, Denver, and Baltimore tie at 9-7, Denver would get in over us since Baltimore has the better division record and would eliminate us in step 1.

I think we need Baltimore to lose in Oakland, or we're out.  Am I wrong?
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steelerfaninCO
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« Reply #17 on: Dec 20, 2009 at 22:40 »

According to this.. http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/playoffscenario?algorithm=currentStandings (thanks Steelerdipwad)

The Steelers are in as the #6 if the Broncos, Ravens, and Steelers all finish 9-7.

I read it as the first WC tiebreaker is head to head which would apply if one team beat the other two, or if one team lost to the other two. That applies here as Denver has lost to both Balty and Pitt, which means they are out. Here is the list of tiebreakers per NFL.com-

(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)

1.Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2.Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3.Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4.Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5.Strength of victory.
6.Strength of schedule.
7.Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8.combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9.Best net points in conference games.
10.Best net points in all games.
11.Best net touchdowns in all games.
12.Coin toss
When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.


So, clearly Den has lost to both and would be out. But even without that they would be out. The division record thing is only to seed the WC contenders, i.e. taking Pitt and Balty, and seeding Balty higher based on division record. With that seeding, Balty would be first matched up with Denver, and would win on head to head. Then the Steelers would be matched up with Denver, and would win on head to head. This only applies if its just Balty/Pitt/Den at 9-7 going for the 2 WC spots. Hou/Jax/NYJ all would have various tiebreakers against the Steelers if they finish 9-7. MIA would be out if they lose to Pit and Ten loses the head to head against the Steelers.

OK, phew... requires to much brain power.

« Last Edit: Dec 20, 2009 at 23:42 by steelerfaninCO » Logged
Merman1983
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« Reply #18 on: Dec 21, 2009 at 12:53 »

The more I think about this today, there more I see the Jets fucking this up. Indy has things locked up and are probably going to be resting guys and assuming the Bungles can handle the high powered Chiefs offense this weekend they'll have nothing to play for the last week.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #19 on: Dec 21, 2009 at 13:09 »

The more I think about this today, there more I see the Jets fucking this up. Indy has things locked up and are probably going to be resting guys and assuming the Bungles can handle the high powered Chiefs offense this weekend they'll have nothing to play for the last week.

I don't know.  Indy remembers 2005, letting too much moss grow under their heels.  They came to play against Jax Thursday.  IMO the Colts beat the Jets this week.  Done.
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