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Author Topic: The Bastard's hot 100 draft prospects  (Read 2068 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Dec 23, 2009 at 14:50 »

I'm setting this up in the form of a three-round mock, plus comps, plus a few extras to round it out to 100.  The draft order was correct as of 12/22, and includes all trades and such.  I have no guess on how many R3 comps there might be, or who will get them: maybe KC can do his usual Excel magic and provide a guess.

This is not who I necessarily like best, but who I think will rate atop most FO boards, more or less. Skewing that are the inevitable pitfalls of trying to project the mock (not having access to the full scout data), front offices that draft using websites cooked up by pimply teenagers in their momma's basements, and of course Al Davis, who is fucking insane.

Since draft order will change over the next few weeks, these rankings will be fluid, depending on how players match team needs.  

The purpose is to keep a list of players to watch in bowl games and at the Indy combine.  As that info comes in, I'll adjust the board.  Feedback and suggestions are welcome.  With what is expected to be a large crop of junior (and redshirt soph) declarees this year, I've done my best to guess who will come out early, which is a total crapshoot at this point.  Some players say they're staying put, but are still checking with the NFL advisory committee; same old song and dance.

Some comments, though this is not intended to be an in-depth analysis of all 100.

Round 1

Draft Position   Team   Player   Position   School   Stats
1.1   St. Louis Rams   Jimmy Clausen   QB   Notre Dame   6'3" 217#
1.2   Detroit Lions   Ndamukong Suh   DT   Nebraska   6'4" 305#
1.3   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Gerald McCoy   DT   Oklahoma   6'4" 295#
1.4   Cleveland Browns   Eric Berry   SS/FS   Tennessee   6'0" 195#
1.5   Kansas City Chiefs   Russell Okung   OT   Oklahoma St.   6'5" 300#
1.6   Washington Redskins   Brian Bulaga   OT   Iowa   6'6" 305#
1.7   Seattle Seahawks   Derrick Morgan   DE   Georgia Tech   6'4" 270#
1.8*   Denver Broncos   Rolando McClain   ILB   Alabama   6'4" 248#
1.9   Buffalo Bills   Sam Bradford   QB   Oklahoma   6'4" 214#
1.10   Oakland Raiders   Joe Haden   CB   Florida   5'11" 185#
1.11   San Francisco 49ers   Anthony Davis   OT/OG   Rutgers   6'6" 335#
1.12**   San Francisco 49ers   Donovan Warren   CB   Michigan   6'0" 182#
1.13   Pittsburgh Steelers   Dan Williams    NT   Tennessee   6'3" 327#
1.14   Jacksonville Jaguars   Earl Thomas   FS/SS   Texas     5'10" 195#
1.15   Atlanta Falcons   Greg Hardy   DE   Mississippi   6'5" 265#
1.16   Houston Texans   C.J. Spiller   RB   Clemson   5'11" 195#
1.17   New York Jets   Sean Weatherspoon   OLB   Missouri   6'1" 235#
1.18   Miami Dolphins   Terrence Cody   NT   Alabama   6'5" 365#
1.19   Tennessee Titans   Jerry Hughes   OLB   Texas Christian   6'2" 258#
1.20   New York Giants   Trent Williams   OT   Oklahoma    6'5" 310#
1.21   Baltimore Ravens   Dez Bryant   WR   Oklahoma St.   6'2" 210#
1.22***   Seattle Seahawks   Charles Brown   OT   Southern Cal.   6'6" 296#
1.23   Green Bay Packers   Mike Iupati   OG/OT   Idaho   6'5" 330#
1.24   Arizona Cardinals   Jason Fox   OT   Miami   6'6" 302#
1.25   Cincinnati Bengals   Jermaine Gresham   TE   Oklahoma   6'6" 260#
1.26   Dallas Cowboys   Taylor Mays   FS/SS   California   6'4" 225#
1.27   New England Patriots   Ricky Sapp   OLB   Clemson   6'4" 246#
1.28   Philadelphia Eagles   Everson Griffen    DE   Southern Cal.   6'3" 265#
1.29   Minnesota Vikings   Bruce Campbell   OT   Maryland   6'7" 310#
1.30   San Diego Chargers   Brandon Spikes   ILB   Florida   6'3" 244#
1.31   New Orleans Saints   Von Miller   OLB   Texas A&M   6'2" 240#
1.32   Indianapolis Colts   Jared Odrick   DE/DT   Penn State   6'5" 308#

* Denver (from Chicago) for Jay Cutler.
** Seattle (from Denver) for Alphonso Smith.
*** San Francisco (from Carolina) for Everette Brown.


Notes:  Suh, McCoy and Berry are IMO the top three players in the draft, but the sole 1-win team (St. Louis) may want to follow suit with recent teams and rebuild with a franchise QB.  There are a lot of QBs with a lot of questions, but I think Clausen fits the bill better than Bradford, who will need a year or two of mentoring.  Don't see it as a year chock full of WR and RB in R1, but I do see it as another year with quite a few OT prospects.  Some folks rate Bruce Campbell top 10 based on measurables, but I think he just crawls into R1, due to injuries and lack of playing time.  See Mays as a faller who may drop out of R1, and Spikes as well.  Von Miller may be overrated here, but we'll see.

I do think Dan Williams will climb ahead of Terrence Cody at NT, and he remains a top Steeler prospect, but given the abysmal play of our DBs of late, I'm about to revise the other thread and put Joe Haden at the top of our list.  If he's not cheating the height measurement, he's a smart pick for us.

Round 2

2.33   St. Louis Rams   Jahvid Best   RB   California   5'10" 194#
2.34   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Damian Williams   WR   Southern Cal.   6'1" 190#
2.35   Detroit Lions   Gabe Carimi   OT   Wisconsin   6'8" 300#
2.36   Kansas City Chiefs   Sergio Kindle   OLB   Texas   6'4" 254#
2.37   Cleveland Browns   Brandon LaFell   WR   Louisiana St.   6'3" 194#
2.38   Washington Redskins   Jonathan Dwyer   RB   Georgia Tech   6'0" 228#
2.39   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Arrelious Benn   WR   Illinois   6'2" 215#
2.40   Buffalo Bills   Golden Tate   WR   Notre Dame   5'11" 195#
2.41   Oakland Raiders   Ryan Mallett   QB   Arkansas   
2.42   Seattle Seahawks   Colt McCoy   QB   Texas   6'3" 215#
2.43   Carolina Panthers   Tony Pike   QB   Cincinnati   6'6" 225#
2.44   San Francisco 49ers   Jon Asamoah   OG/OT   Illinois   6'5" 315#
2.45*   New England Patriots   Carlos Dunlap   DE   Florida   6'6" 290#
2.46**   Kansas City Chiefs   DeMaryius Thomas   WR   Georgia Tech   6'3" 228#
2.47   Houston Texans   Brandon Ghee   CB   Wake Forest   6'0" 190#
2.48   New York Jets   Nate Allen   FS   South Florida   6'2" 205#
2.49***   Miami Dolphins   Travis Lewis   OLB   Oklahoma     6'2" 230#
2.50   New England Patriots   Ras-I-Dowling   CB/FS   Virginia   6'2" 200#
2.51   Pittsburgh Steelers   Morgan Burnett   SS/FS   Georgia Tech   6'1" 210#
2.52   New York Giants   Brian Price   DT    UCLA   6'1" 295#
2.53   Denver Broncos   Tim Tebow   QB/ATH/SAINT   Florida   6'3" 235#
2.54   Baltimore Ravens   Perrish Cox   CB   Oklahoma St.   6'1" 195#
2.55   Arizona Cardinals   Maurkice Pouncey   C/OG   Florida   6'5" 312#
2.56   Green Bay Packers   Trevard Lindley   CB   Kentucky   6'0" 178#
2.57   Dallas Cowboys   Kyle Calloway   OT   Iowa   6'7" 315#
2.58   New England Patriots   Marvin Austin   DT   North Carolina   6'3" 305#
2.59   Cincinnati Bengals   Mardy Gilyard   WR   Cincinnati   6'1" 185#
2.60   Philadelphia Eagles   Reshad Jones   FS   Georgia     6'2" 205#
2.61   San Diego Chargers   Jason Pierre-Paul   DE/OLB   Southern Florida   6'6" 265#
2.62   Minnesota Vikings   Patrick Robinson   CB   Florida St.   5'11" 190#
2.63   New Orleans Saints   Greg Romeus   DE   Pittsburgh   6'5" 265#
2.64   Indianapolis Colts   Daryl Washington   ILB/OLB   Texas Christian   6�3� 234#

*New England (from Jacksonville) for Derek Cox.
**Kansas City (from Atlanta) for Tony Gonzalez.
**New England (from Tennessee) for Jared Cook.
Fucking bastard Patriots.


Notes:  The WR talent not being R1-worthy has ripple effects, notably pushing OLB and DE talent down, IMO.  E.g., Greg Romeus should be higher, but here was an instance where team needs and value board diverged.  CB follows WR, in not having a lot of talent at the top, but a glut of R2 talent.  Two safeties that I have higher than some and may go higher than I have them are Nate Allen and Morgan Burnett, both potential R1 talents.  There seems to be a dearth of good safeties on rosters (or a plethora of injured ones), and these two players could see the traditionally undervalued S position get more interest.

Lots of talk as to Tebow.  All I can say is, who the fuck knows.  Some speculation the Jags have locked him in as a R1; they have need at QB, but I can't bring myself to call him a R1 NFL caliber talent.  That said, I considered R3 and felt that he's got the physical skills and intangibles worth taking a gamble on, and think he may go as a QB slash Wildcat wildcard to a team mid-R2.  He has arm strength, which would be an upgrade over Orton, but Orton could run the team as Tebow puts it all together.  On other QBs:  I think Colt McCoy is a very good college QB only.  Best case scenario might be Seattle in a Hasselbeck-like role, but most other teams he will fail.  Pike's a nifty QB but he's no Flacco, despite the height, just not as strong-armed.  There are some juniors I don't think will declare who could work into R2 if they did.

Round 3

3.65   St. Louis Rams   Eric Norwood   ILB/OLB   South Carolina   6'0" 257#
3.66   Detroit Lions   Javier Arenas   CB   Alabama   5'9" 198#
3.67   Tampa Bay Buccaneers   Corey Wootton   DE   Northwestern   6'7" 270#
3.68   Cleveland Browns   Greg Romeus   DE   Pittsburgh   6'5" 265#
3.69   Kansas City Chiefs   Darrell Stuckey   SS   Kansas   6'1" 205#
3.70   Buffalo Bills   Selvish Capers   OT   West Virginia   6'5" 298#
3.71   Oakland Raiders   George Selvie   OLB   South Florida   6'4" 247#
3.72*   Philadelphia Eagles   Kyle Wilson   CB   Boise St.   5'10" 187#
3.73   Chicago Bears   Michael Pouncey   OG   Florida   6'5" 312#
3.74   San Francisco 49ers   Jordan Shipley   WR   Texas    6'0" 190#
3.75   Carolina Panthers   Jacoby Ford   WR   Clemson   5'10" 185#
3.76   Atlanta Falcons   Akwasi Owusu-Ansah   CB   Indiana (PA)   6'1" 205#
3.77   Houston Texans   Tyson Alualu   DE/DT   California   6'2" 295#
3.78**   Cleveland Browns   Arthur Jones   DE/DT   Syracuse   6'4" 300#
3.79   Miami Dolphins   Eric Decker   WR   Minnesota   6'2" 215#
3.80   Tennessee Titans   Brandon Graham   DE/OLB   Michigan   6'2" 270#
3.81   Pittsburgh Steelers   Ciron Black   OT/OG   Louisiana St.   6'5" 314#
3.82   Jacksonville Jaguars   Case Keenam   QB   Houston   6'2" 210#
3.83   New York Giants   Kurt Coleman   SS   Ohio St.   
3.84   Baltimore Ravens   Ed Dickson    TE   Oregon   
3.85   Denver Broncos   Matt Tennant   C/OG   Boston College   6'4" 300#
3.86   Green Bay Packers   Vince Oghobaase   DT/DE   Duke   6'6" 310#
3.87   Arizona Cardinals   Bruce Carter   OLB   North Carolina   6'3" 225#
3.88***   Oakland Raiders   Rodney Hudson   OG    Florida St.   6'2" 290#
3.89   Cincinnati Bengals   Roddrick Muckelroy   ILB   Texas    6'2" 235#
3.90   Dallas Cowboys   Micah Johnson   ILB   Kentucky   6'2" 252#
3.91   Philadelphia Eagles   Quan Sturdivant   ILB   North Carolina   6'2" 232#
3.92   Minnesota Vikings   Anthony Dixon   RB   Mississippi St.   
3.93   San Diego Chargers   Ryan Matthews   RB   Fresno St.   5'11" 215#
3.94   New Orleans Saints   Jerome Murphy   CB   South Florida   
3.95   Indianapolis Colts   Pat Angerer   ILB   Iowa   
3.96C      Toby Gerhart   RB/FB   California   6'1" 235#
3.97C      O'Brien Schofield   OLB   Wisconsin   6'2" 248#
3.98C      A.J. Edds   OLB   Iowa   
3.99C      Navorro Bowman   OLB   Penn State   6'1" 228#
+3.100      Brandon Lang   DE/OLB   Troy   6'4" 250#

Just missed:   Sean Lee   ILB   Penn State   6'3" 234#
      Syd'Quan Thompson   CB   California   5'9" 190#

*Philadelphia (from Seattle) for Deon Butler.
**Cleveland (from NYJ) for Braylon Edwards.
***Oakland (from New England) for Derrick Burgess.

Washington used it R3 pick (would have been 3.70) in supplemental draft.


Notes: I hope to hell we draft a CB in the first three rounds, but we also need some OT depth badly, and Black could be a faller value.  Also, the FO just spent two picks on Lewis and Burnett and may wish to develop them.  I hope we get a R3 comp, because R3 this year is going to be as good as R2 most other years, if we do get a lot of underclassmen.  I think Toby Gerhart will fall, as teams see more Brian Leonard than Mike Alstott.  Don't see a ton of runners in the first three rounds, period.  A lot of really decent OLB talent clanked down to R3, and might deserve to go off higher.  A couple of guys I like, and maybe pushed into R3: Kurt Coleman, S, Ohio St., and Pat Angerer, ILB, Iowa.  Both are smallish, productive guys with decent speed numbers who I think teams will pick up despite size (think Bob Sanders, only less so).  Sean Lee will drop, IMO, a PSU LB trend of late.  OT talent is pretty well gone here, with Capers and Black having some asterisks.

There are some small school prospects that may creep into this list, but that will likely be after Indy.

I'll try to update with players who have declared and so on.
« Last Edit: Dec 16, 2010 at 08:22 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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KeystoneKC
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« Reply #1 on: Dec 23, 2009 at 21:57 »

I have no guess on how many R3 comps there might be, or who will get them: maybe KC can do his usual Excel magic and provide a guess.

I usually don't dig too deeply into it this early but,... best guess at this point:

They didn't lose any free agents that received vastly obscene sums o' money last offseason.  The two that I think might draw comps would be Bryant McFadden (2 yr / $10M) to AZ, and Nate Washington (6 yr / $27M / $9M guaranteed) to the Nash-villans.  Without looking at the rest of the league, I'm thinking a 4th & a 5th, or maybe a 5th & a 6th at worst.  But I'm a little afraid to bet the house quite yet... we're getting pretty close to an uncapped year.  I believe that might skew things & drive comps lower.
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« Reply #2 on: Dec 24, 2009 at 10:51 »

If the Rams take Claussen instead of Suh, Spagnuolo isn't as smart as I thought he was.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #3 on: Dec 24, 2009 at 13:03 »

If the Rams take Claussen instead of Suh, Spagnuolo isn't as smart as I thought he was.

Not really a question of which guy's the better player at his spot; it's about the value of the QB position.  Steelers were playoff teams with no hopes of a ring until 7 came along.  Aaron Curry was a better player than Matt Stafford, but admittedly Stafford will do more to reverse the Lions' fortunes than Curry would have.  Matt Ryan vs. Glenn "can't miss" Dorsey, e.g.

IMO, Claussen and Bradford are the only QBs worth a R1 pick, but Bradford has injury questions, and will have more of an adjustment to NFL offenses than Claussen will.  So I think Bradford as a top-10 is more of a reach, which any number of teams might take because of said positional value.

Best pure players in the draft regardless of position?  Suh, McCoy, Berry.
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« Reply #4 on: Dec 28, 2009 at 15:16 »

If the Rams take Claussen instead of Suh, Spagnuolo isn't as smart as I thought he was.

Not really a question of which guy's the better player at his spot; it's about the value of the QB position.  Steelers were playoff teams with no hopes of a ring until 7 came along.  Aaron Curry was a better player than Matt Stafford, but admittedly Stafford will do more to reverse the Lions' fortunes than Curry would have.  Matt Ryan vs. Glenn "can't miss" Dorsey, e.g.

IMO, Claussen and Bradford are the only QBs worth a R1 pick, but Bradford has injury questions, and will have more of an adjustment to NFL offenses than Claussen will.  So I think Bradford as a top-10 is more of a reach, which any number of teams might take because of said positional value.

Best pure players in the draft regardless of position?  Suh, McCoy, Berry.

I completely agree that having a franchise QB is imperative.  It's a QB driven league.  We've discussed that much plenty of times before.

However, taking a QB @ #1 because you need one when there are other clearly better players at other positions isn't an approach I'd employ.  Reaching to fill a need, even a need at the most important position on the team, doesn't usually end well.  For all the Bens, Livers', and Eli's of this world, those bad early reach picks do plenty to set a franchise back (read:  Detroit, Oakland, Houston, Cleveland, etc.) too. 

I dunno, maybe it's just because I'm not that big a fan of Clausen.

It might not be the best plan of attack, but I'd draft the best player #1 and if a top rated QB (Locker?  I have no idea where he's projected.) is still there late R1, maybe trade up for him.  As important as a franchise QB is to a team, when a team is that bad, they need all the quality talent they can get.  Go for the best player and try to find a quality QB later (or even next year).  After all, it's not like you can't get a great franchise guy outside the top 15.
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« Reply #5 on: Dec 29, 2009 at 09:03 »

Well, nail on head: it depends on your eval of Claussen.  (FWIW, this is a pretty good argument for.)  I knew the Tim Couch Counter-Argument would come up, but I just don't see Claussen as a bust.  Didn't like Brady Quinn coming out, thought he had a high school arm.  The wife's family (Irish side) is all ND screamers, so I've seen my share this year:  Weis is no HC, not at NCAA or NFL; Our Lady's defense is shit; they have no running game; their OL is OK but not dominant; it comes down to Claussen and some receivers.  BTW, when that TE Rudolph comes out, I wouldn't mind adding him to the fold and kicking Spaeth out. 

Anyway.  I see Claussen as a guy you can stick into a pro system early (like Matt Ryan).  Speaking of Ryan, I've been really down on QBs ever since the class of Ben.  I remember being so stoked about the Ben/Eli/Rivers trio as an exciting bunch to follow, and of course I had Ben as the best of those.  But I've undersold guys ever since, notably Ryan.  So I tend to be very hard on QBs coming out, especially underclassmen (Sanchez, Freeman).  This year, I think the dropoff after Claussen is precipitous, but will allow that maybe one or two guys may surprise (who's this year's Flacco?).   

So let's take stock.  Bradford?  I think he'll get over-drafted.  Nice physical skills and size, good kid, dinged up a lot, and a big adjustment from the Okie offense to a pro system.  He'll need a couple of years of carrying a clipboard.  Even somebody like Matt Stafford, who I wasn't high on, was able to at least make the jump (with requisite rookie mistakes) and at least run a pro style offense: I don't think Bradford can do that.  MY own grade on Bradford might be high R2, but some team will draft him top 10 IMO.

Locker?  Very raw, needs a lot of work, didn't like the NFL eval grade and decided to return to Washington and improve his stock.  I think he got a R2 or even R3 grade and wisely decided that if he had a good senior year he could go top 10.  Locker is a little more polished than a guy like Mallett, but both have intriguing physical skills and could be good prospects... in a year.  Mallett may roll the dice and come out, and with a good combine I can see him going high R2.  But teams know they'll need to invest a lot of coaching in this kid.  Locker and Mallett have the skillset, but thrown into the fire too early they could seriously crash their careers.

McCoy?  A very nice collegiate athlete.  Sort of like a Brady Quinn plus: nice intangibles, very nice NCAA stats, yada yada.  Doesn't have the arm.  Just don't see him fitting most teams.  Will also likely get overdrafted.  I mocked him to Seattle R2, because I think that's a team he'd fit on: he can be Matt Hasselbeck II. 

Tim Tebow is the enigma.  Won't beat the dead horse, everyone knows the argument.  I wouldn't draft him, period.  Great person, great athlete, I see the first few years of his career being a question of where to put him, trying QB, switching to other positions.  I see Eric Crouch, but bigger, stronger, and saintlier.  I don't see an NFL QB.  Maybe he'll surprise me, and a lot of experts think he's a legit NFL R1 guy.  K.

Tony Pike?  Looks like a skinny Flacco, good QB instincts, games I saw I was impressed, but when he got hurt his understudy also looked very good, so I wonder how much is Brian Kelly's system and how much is Pike.  Also, Pike has nowhere near Flacco's arm.  I think he'll be a decent QB, but again I see teams that are desperate for QB starters and depth taking him a little high.

Sean Canfield, Ore. St., dreadful, dreadful bowl game, might be a decent QB.  When I've seen him I was not hugely impressed, but could be a mid-rounder worth looking at and developing.

Jevan Snead?  Horrible season, didn't like what I saw, even with the caveats of the team being not very good.  Pass.

I think Christian Ponder and Jerrod Johnson will stay put and improve their stock.  Both of these guys are interesting prospects, but I just don't get the sense they'll jump for a later round grade.

Case Keenum of Houston has a live arm, and I could see him rolling the dice and declaring, and being a Flacco type this year.  With a good combine, I think he's a mid-R2 who might go higher (late R1?) for a team desperate enough.

To recap: the only QB who I know is goind to be in the draft that I would consider even close to a franchise QB would be Claussen.  I don't think you drop to mid-R1 or wait till early R2 and get anything close.  A team taking the top DL but passing on a franchise QB (if Claussen is that) is following the Texans' model, and mediocrity haunted them for years.  A team with better balance might be able to take BPA over Claussen, if they already have a decent QB situation, but that's not par at the top of the draft.

Option II. With the regime change in Washington, you get the sense Jason Campbell will be hittting the FA market.  He's not a "franchise QB," but he's suffered under an inept and basically evil owner.  He's not going to set the world on fire, but he could be a Kyle Orton type manager.  He's very accurate, low INT rate, so I see a "poor man's McNabb."  I've said it before: if you look at Eli Manning's stats and Jason Campbell's stats, the Giants were idiots for paying Manning the big honkin' cash they did.  I'd be happier paying Campbell a fifth of that money for the same damned results.  If the Rams signed Campbell and then drafted Suh, they'd be pulling a real coup. 
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aj_law
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« Reply #6 on: Dec 29, 2009 at 12:08 »

OMFG, I had some long winded response typed up with some decent points that I totally erased by doing a Google search in the wrong goddamned window.

*(&(*^*(^%&*%^&*((_)&%#%Y^*&&&(((*^^^^^^^%$%^^^^!!!!!!!!!!!!8*(^*&^$%^#%@#$^%$*&^

Sonofa...

*SIGH*

Anyway, somebody's been doin' their homework, eh?  Sick writeup on QB prospects, sir.  Wish I had the time to follow 'em like I used to.  I enjoyed it and miss it.  Now, I'd be hard pressed to name 12 guys coming out.


To recap: the only QB who I know is goind to be in the draft that I would consider even close to a franchise QB would be Claussen.  I don't think you drop to mid-R1 or wait till early R2 and get anything close.  A team taking the top DL but passing on a franchise QB (if Claussen is that) is following the Texans' model, and mediocrity haunted them for years.  A team with better balance might be able to take BPA over Claussen, if they already have a decent QB situation, but that's not par at the top of the draft.

Option II. With the regime change in Washington, you get the sense Jason Campbell will be hittting the FA market.  He's not a "franchise QB," but he's suffered under an inept and basically evil owner.  He's not going to set the world on fire, but he could be a Kyle Orton type manager.  He's very accurate, low INT rate, so I see a "poor man's McNabb."  I've said it before: if you look at Eli Manning's stats and Jason Campbell's stats, the Giants were idiots for paying Manning the big honkin' cash they did.  I'd be happier paying Campbell a fifth of that money for the same damned results.  If the Rams signed Campbell and then drafted Suh, they'd be pulling a real coup. 

Cliff's Notes version:

What scares me about Clausen is that he's an underclassman.  Other than Ben and a few others, most good to great franchise guys get four years of reps (or close to it) in college.  Those types are the exception, not the rule.  If it were me based on the little I've seen, I wouldn't be willing to pick him and risk another 3-5 years of torment to find out if he's the former.

Your reference of The Texans model neglects to mention that they suffered for 5 years with reaching and taking a hot shot, but with limited experience underclassman in Carr.  That was their biggest mistake and the main reason they struggled for the first half of the decade, IMO.  When they took Mario, they got it right and have building with the right moves ever since.

Manning, while considerably more expensive, is a better QB and leader, IMO.  If you're down 6 and you need a late drive with 2:00 left, who would you rather have?  Still, as you mention, Campbell is a decent option for St. Louie if his price tag is reasonable.  "Reasonable" being the key word.

...Damnit...
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« Reply #7 on: Dec 29, 2009 at 12:46 »

Good discussion, law, even without the erroneously deleted material.  Save it for the DVD edition...  Claussen may be an underclassman, but he has had three years of solid starts.  I think three, rather than four, is probably the better baseline for number of years for a good collegiate foundation: lots of QBs get little or no starting time as frosh, but start soph-junior-senior (e.g., BBR).

As to the Texans, Carr was another nice collegiate QB who in 20/20 was never franchise QB material.  It's worth noting that the Carr Era (2002-06) and the Mario Williams Era (2006-present) are of nearly equal duration, yet neither has produced a season over 8-8.  Carr could have been a decent enough QB had his formative years and hundreds of sacks sustained not ruined him; plenty of blame in that little saga, but he could have at least been no worse than a Matt Hasselbeck type.  In short, a guy who could be good enough to get a good team to the big game, but not the kind of guy who can resurrect (or, as was the case of the Texans, insurrect) a morbid franchise.  The difference between a David Carr and a franchise QB is, IMO, about the same difference between a Tony Pike and a Jimmy Claussen, or something close to it.

I think the more recent (and admittedly modest) success of the Texans has everything to do with the fact that on top of a number of good draft picks like Mario, they've added a QB who's in the top 10 or 15 in the league.  Here again, the sticky subjective issue of what constitutes a "franchise QB," but Schaub is capable of doing some damage offensively.  I just think he lacks a certain something, maybe some of that Ben magic, and he comes across as a guy who wins big or falls flat entirely.  Still, an upgrade from the tragicomedy that was the early Texans offense.

The bottom line is that QBs come into the league with a certain skill set, but their success is as dependent upon where they land as what they bring.  Some guys would succeed in darn near any system (Peyton, Brady; probably BBR, Brees, and even Rivers), but drop a good QB onto a team with bad coaches, bad OL, bad skill position players, and the whole thing's tough to assess.  A lot of these QBs that get overdrafted have nice NCAA stats but never played in a pro system, and can't adjust from gimmick/gadget playbooks to the real deal.  Tim Couch leaps to mind as a guy who was a travesty of hype, going to a team without skill players, and a coach in over his head.  Hilarious, yet sad, yet hilarious.  I see Claussen as a guy who could go to a bad team (e.g., Rams, whose OL is depleted and skill players are dodgy), but who would have a patient coach (Spags), and who could help to rebuild the offense similarly to the way Peyton was developed in Indy -- NOT saying Claussen equals Manning, just that he could reward a patient franchise, rather than flaming out a la Carr.

Two minutes left, Eli or Jason Campbell?  OK, if I'm a GM and can choose between spending $100M+ on Eli or $15M on Jason Campbell, and the rest on gebtting some more help, it's giddyap Campbell time.  Two minutes left down 6?  Sure, I'd probably go Manning.  Campbell is even-tempered to a fault: he doesn't have that QB magic the greats are imbued with.  Eli has a little, sometimes, scattershot.  

But consider, Eli's got more years starting than Campbell, but going by comparables?  Campbell has a career 61.1% completion rate, Manning 56.9%.  Campbell's career passer rating is 81.8, Manning's is 79.3.  Both throw about 1.4 times as many TDs as INTs (JC: 53/38, EM: 125/87).  I thought the 2004 QB class was 1a. Ben, 1b. Eli and 2. Rivers.  I'd swap Rivers and Eli now.  Of course, Rivers is a dick and I hope the Bolts flame out in the playoffs, but that ain't nuthin' that doesn't need to be said.

« Last Edit: Dec 29, 2009 at 13:37 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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« Reply #8 on: Dec 29, 2009 at 13:22 »

I can't believe no one's talking about Billy Stull.  McShay has him as the 9th QB!  Forget the fact that he couldn't the ocean if he was stranded in the middle of the pacific in an innertube.
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« Reply #9 on: Dec 29, 2009 at 13:39 »

I can't believe no one's talking about Billy Stull.  McShay has him as the 9th QB!  Forget the fact that he couldn't the ocean if he was stranded in the middle of the pacific in an innertube.

ROR...

Stull's listed as the #9 senior QB at NFLDS, albeit as a R6 projection.  Just goes to show how steep the dropoff is...

BARFT DILL STOLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  HIS AMPROVEMINT THIS YEAR HAS BEEN >>> ASSTONISHING <<< COULD HE BE THE NEXT BRAIN SANT. PERRIER?!?!
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« Reply #10 on: Dec 29, 2009 at 13:46 »

BTW, have only caught parts of the bowl games thus far.  I did see Micah Johnson show some textbook stuff in the KY-Clemson bowl game, scraped down the line nicely to thump the runner (not Spiller).  I like this kid.  But he suffered another injury (MCL), and even if it's not serious that tendency for injury may drop him some.  I'd still be interested in him though.

Spiller showed some tremendous stuff.  That 42-yard reception, man, that kid has jets.
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« Reply #11 on: Dec 30, 2009 at 09:28 »

Quote from: NFLDS
12/19/09 - Senior Jason Fox, who missed the regular season finale with what was reported as an irregular heartbeat, will now miss the bowl game after requiring surgery. Fox currently has an immobilizing brace on his left knee. Coach Randy Shannon said in a statement that "We've really appreciated all of Jason's efforts this season as well as throughout his career. He's had some nagging injuries this season and has played through the pain to the point where we as a coaching staff and athletic training staff feel like it would be best for him to not play in the bowl game. Jason has a bright future ahead in football and he needs to be 100 percent going forward." - CaneSport.com

Saw that Fox was out for this due to the knee; did not know about the heartbeat, and don't know the extent of the knee injury.  Both will need cleared by teams, and the knee will need to be good to go by Indy, or Fox will drop a fair bit.  Even if he gets a clean bill, I think this dings him some.  Look for Fox to fall out of R1 unless he's squeaky clean.

Losing a starting LT might have been the difference maker in that bowl...

And let me just say that if we could somehow get Dan Williams or Joe Haden R1, Jason Fox R2, and one of the safeties (Nate Allen, Morgan Burnett) to fall all the way to R3, Finny would be a very happy camper.  Fox could start at RT to get his feet wet, and later swap OT spots with Starks.  Colon could move inside and improve RG.  That would be three upgrades on the OL.
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« Reply #12 on: Dec 30, 2009 at 10:13 »

Note: Robert Johnson, S, Utah might be cracking this 100.  Good size, speed, and ballhawking ability.  Sheer number of safeties might push some talent to our R3 selection.  If we miss on guys I've mentioned, Johnson in R3 would rock.
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« Reply #13 on: Dec 30, 2009 at 14:27 »

BTW, have only caught parts of the bowl games thus far.  I did see Micah Johnson show some textbook stuff in the KY-Clemson bowl game, scraped down the line nicely to thump the runner (not Spiller).  I like this kid.  But he suffered another injury (MCL), and even if it's not serious that tendency for injury may drop him some.  I'd still be interested in him though.

I will point out that Micah has missed less than 5 games in his career at UK.  Non-official count is 3 1/2.  He played in all games this year, though I do know he left one early.
He's good, he's tough, he's a competitor.  If you look at Wesley Woodyard, you'll see where Micah came from.
And I think Micah's considerably better than Wesley.

I think he may fall, and if he's available, we should seriously consider him.  He's also a class act.

Just my 2 cents, and a homer's 2 cents at that....
 B)
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« Reply #14 on: Dec 31, 2009 at 09:11 »

Note to self: Brian Price needs moved up.  Re-targeted for R1 grade.  Travis Lewis ditto.

Ras-I Dowling says he's going back to school.  Edit.
« Last Edit: Dec 31, 2009 at 10:02 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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« Reply #15 on: Feb 03, 2010 at 14:33 »

***2/3/10 Hot 100 Update***

Not going to bother trying to match players to team, as above, in a rough mock.  And this is not my personal value for these players; for example, I have Taylor Mays rated lower than most because of his coverage liability; I would have Myron Rolle rated in my personal hot 100.  I've taken the NFLDS rankings and given them some tweaks and spins based on Shrine and Senior Bowl performances, and adjusted what I feel are some gross errors of ranking.  Basically what you have here are 100 players most of whom should be drafted in the actual top 100 picks.  

You'll see some drastic differences from the previous hot 100, as some underclassmen declarations materialized (or not), players shat the bed (Trevard Lindley, e.g.), and others tore it up (Alex Carrington, Brandon Graham, Kyle Wilson, e.g.).

Sorry for the lack of formatting.

#   Name   Position   School   Height   Weight   Round
1   Ndamukong Suh   DT   Nebraska   6'4"   302   1a
2   Eric Berry   FS   Tennessee   5'11"   203   1a
3   Gerald McCoy   DT   Oklahoma   6'4"   298   1a
4   Russell Okung   OT   Oklahoma State   6'5"   302   1a
5   Joe Haden   CB   Florida   5'11"   190   1a
6   Jimmy Clausen   QB   Notre Dame   6'2"   223   1a
7   C.J. Spiller   RB   Clemson   5'11"   195   1a
8   Sam Bradford   QB   Oklahoma   6'4"   223   1a
9   Derrick Morgan   DE   Georgia Tech   6'4"   272   1a
10   Rolando McClain   ILB   Alabama   6'4"   256   1a
11   Dez Bryant   WR   Oklahoma State   6'2"   220   1b
12   Trent Williams   OT   Oklahoma   6'5"   318   1b
13   Mike Iupati   OG   Idaho   6'5"   325   1b
14   Anthony Davis   OT   Rutgers   6'6"   325   1b
15   Taylor Mays   FS   Southern California   6'3"   231   1b
16   Everson Griffen   DE   Southern California   6'3"   278   1b
17   Earl Thomas   CB   Texas   5'10"   195   1b
18   Dan Williams   DT   Tennessee   6'2"   329   1b
19   Carlos Dunlap   DE   Florida   6'6"   290   1b
20   Bryan Bulaga   OT   Iowa   6'6"   312   1b
21   Bruce Campbell   OT   Maryland   6'7"   310   1b
22   Golden Tate   WR   Notre Dame   5'11"   195   1c
23   Jonathan Dwyer   RB   Georgia Tech   5'11"   235   1c
24   Charles Brown   OT   Southern California   6'5"   292   1c
25   Brandon Graham   DE   Michigan   6'1"   263   1c
26   Jared Odrick   DT   Penn State   6'5"   301   1c
27   Brian Price   DT   UCLA   6'2"   300   1c
28   Ricky Sapp   OLB   Clemson   6'4"   248   1c
29   Jahvid Best   RB   California   5'10"   195   1c
30   Jason Pierre-Paul   DE   South Florida   6'6"   265   1c
31   Sean Weatherspoon   OLB   Missouri   6'1"   241   1c
32   Jermaine Gresham   TE   Oklahoma   6'6"   258   1c
33   Corey Wootton   DE   Northwestern   6'6"   280   2a
34   Devin McCourty   CB   Rutgers   5'11"   186   2a
35   Brandon LaFell   WR   LSU   6'3"   206   2a
36   Maurkice Pouncey   C   Florida   6'5"   318   2a
37   Damian Williams   WR   Southern California   6'1"   195   2a
38   Patrick Robinson   CB   Florida State   5'11"   190   2a
39   Terrence Cody   DT   Alabama   6'4"   370   2a
40   Dominique Franks   CB   Oklahoma   6'0"   192   2a
41   Brandon Spikes   ILB   Florida   6'3"   256   2a
42   Kyle Wilson   CB   Boise State   5'10"   190   2a
43   Sergio Kindle   OLB   Texas   6'4"   255   2b
44   Navorro Bowman   OLB   Penn State   6'1"   232   2b
45   Rob Gronkowski   TE   Arizona   6'6"   265   2b
46   Demaryius Thomas   WR   Georgia Tech   6'3"   229   2b
47   Arrelious Benn   WR   Illinois   6'2"   220   2b
48   Jerry Hughes   OLB   TCU   6'2"   257   2b
49   Aaron Hernandez   TE   Florida   6'2"   250   2b
50   Vladimir Ducasse   OT   Massachusetts   6'5"   326   2b
51   Colt McCoy   QB   Texas   6'2"   212   2b
52   Dexter McCluster   WR   Mississippi   5'8"   165   2b
53   Anthony McCoy   TE   Southern California   6'5"   249   2b
54   Chad Jones   SS   LSU   6'3"   230   2c
55   Syd'Quan Thompson   CB   California   5'9"   182   2c
56   Tim Tebow   QB   Florida   6'3"   236   2c
57   Anthony Dixon   RB   Mississippi State   6'1"   245   2c
58   Nate Allen   FS   South Florida   6'1"   205   2c
59   Ryan Mathews   RB   Fresno State   5'11"   220   2c
60   Perrish Cox   CB   Oklahoma State   5'11"   189   2c
61   Daryl Washington   ILB   TCU   6'2"   226   2c
62   Morgan Burnett   FS   Georgia Tech   6'1"   210   2c
63   Brandon Ghee   CB   Wake Forest   6'0"   189   2c
64   Donovan Warren   CB   Michigan   6'0"   185   2c
65   Jon Asamoah   OG   Illinois   6'4"   300   3a
66   Jordan Shipley   WR   Texas   6'0"   190   3a
67   Tony Pike   QB   Cincinnati   6'6"   212   3a
68   Mike Johnson   OG   Alabama   6'6"   306   3a
69   Jerome Murphy   CB   South Florida   6'1"   191   3a
70   Reshad Jones   SS   Georgia   6'2"   212   3a
71   Greg Hardy   DE   Mississippi   6'4"   279   3a
72   Tyson Alualu   DT   California   6'2"   291   3a
73   Ed Dickson   TE   Oregon   6'4"   244   3a
74   Jason Worilds   DE   Virginia Tech   6'2"   252   3a
75   Taylor Price   WR   Ohio   6'0"   198   3b
76   Toby Gerhart   RB   Stanford   6'1"   235   3b
77   Cam Thomas   DT   North Carolina   6'4"   331   3b
78   Matt Tennant   C   Boston College   6'5"   290   3b
79   Joe McKnight   RB   Southern California   6'0"   190   3b
80   Koa Misi   OLB   Utah   6'3"   244   3b
81   Alex Carrington   DE   Arkansas State   6'5"   284   3b
82   Amari Spievey   CB   Iowa   6'0"   190   3b
83   T.J. Ward   SS   Oregon   5'10"   199   3b
84   Jimmy Graham   TE   Miami (Fla.)   6'7"   259   3b
85   Jason Fox   OT   Miami (Fla.)   6'6"   314   3b
86   Carlton Mitchell   WR   South Florida   6'4"   212   3c
87   Kareem Jackson   CB   Alabama   5'11"   192   3c
88   Mardy Gilyard   WR   Cincinnati   6'0"   179   3c
89   Mike Williams   WR   Syracuse   6'2"   212   3c
90   Garrett Graham   FB   Wisconsin   6'3"   234   3c
91   Dan LeFevour   QB   Central Michigan   6'3"   229   3c
92   Lamarr Houston   DT   Texas   6'3"   302   3c
93   Austen Lane   DE   Murray State   6'6"   267   3c
94   Rennie Curran   OLB   Georgia   5'11"   225   3c
95   Eric Norwood   OLB   South Carolina   6'1"   246   3c
96   Torrell Troup   DT   UCF   6'3"   310   3c
97   Montario Hardesty   RB   Tennessee   6'0"   215   3-Comp
98   Sean Lee   ILB   Penn State   6'2"   236   3-Comp
99   Javier Arenas   CB   Alabama   5'9"   195   3-Comp
100   A.J. Edds   OLB   Iowa   6'4"   245   4a
« Last Edit: Feb 04, 2010 at 10:15 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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