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Author Topic: Kiper/McShay MARK DARFT VISHUN 4!!!  (Read 837 times)
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« on: Apr 08, 2010 at 19:14 »

Sorry about the formatting.  Both have Steelers taking Pouncey.

Edit:  Absolute mess for formatting.  Just included up to Pittsburgh's pick.

Mock Draft 4.0: So close, so far
The draft is getting close, but the experts can't agree on many picks
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45553By Mel Kiper and Todd McShay
It's been a full month since the last time we joined forces for a mock draft, and while a lot of things have changed -- nearly every player on this mock went through a pro day during that period -- some mock scenarios have remained.


But not many. That's because the added evaluation process truly has brought about some changes on our boards. Players who struggled at the combine and lost some momentum regained it, and there are a number of players in the mock who are showing off their physical skills in workouts for the first time after not being fully healthy to participate in Indy.


As for changes, the mood at the very top has stayed relatively consistent -- chalk that one up to Sam Bradford's solid performance for scouts recently -- but beyond that, there are many changes. Free agency and trades have shifted priorities, and the mock will show a lot of shifts.

St. Louis RamsSam Bradford
QB, OklahomaSam Bradford
QB, OklahomaKiper: The Rams have passed on Matt Ryan and Mark Sanchez during the past two years, and they don't want to regret missing on another player with "franchise QB" potential. Bradford could have been No. 1 over Matthew Stafford last year, and has answered a lot of questions about his physical skills (and progress) over the past month. Concerns about his experience in the spread offense alone are real, however, and if the Rams feel intent on starting Bradford from day one, they could live to regret it. McShay: The Rams have passed on potential franchise quarterbacks the past two seasons in favor of linemen, and we will be shocked if they do so again. Bradford has added bulk to his frame, passed medical exams on his surgically repaired throwing shoulder and had a strong showing at his pro day, so there should be no obstacles for the Rams. He comes from a wide-open offense and was generally well protected but we are confident he has the football intelligence and accuracy to develop into an upper-echelon starter a few years down the road. Detroit LionsNdamukong Suh
DT, NebraskaNdamukong Suh
DT, NebraskaKiper: There are some in Detroit who want the team to trade down for one of the tackles in this draft. It's not a terrible idea -- protecting your young QB is hugely important. However, Detroit has made some moves to upgrade along the offensive line, and then there's the countering argument: the Lions' defense was so bad last year, it made the offense focus on the passing game and lose needed balance. A better defense will help the Detroit offense. And Suh makes them better immediately. McShay: OT Russell Okung is a possibility because QB Matthew Stafford's long-term protection is important, but defensive tackle is also a need for the Lions and they're staring at the top two prospects in the 2010 class at this point. We give Oklahoma DT Gerald McCoy a slightly higher grade due to his pass-rushing skills but Suh is a better fit for a Lions defense that needs a dominant physical presence up front. Tampa Bay BuccaneersGerald McCoy
DT, OklahomaGerald McCoy
DT, OklahomaKiper: As I've said before, it would be hard to pass up a potential Pro Bowl player and a guy whom many consider the best overall player in the draft at No. 3. McCoy isn't just effective against the run, he uses his quickness and strength to blow by interior linemen and disrupt the QB. Maybe the most complete talent in the draft, and that includes Suh. McShay: The Buccaneers are getting back to their Tampa 2 defensive roots and McCoy, who is built in the Warren Sapp mold, is the ideal fit as a one-gap penetrating 3-technique. Washington RedskinsRussell Okung
OT, Oklahoma StateRussell Okung
OT, Oklahoma StateKiper: The Redskins have addressed their QB situation, now they can protect Donovan McNabb's blind side (and help one of the trio of backs McNabb figures to be handing off to). Okung may not have the extraordinary upside of a guy like Anthony Davis, but he's the most complete left tackle available, and is a low-risk pick for a team that can't afford to miss. Unless they trade down, the Skins don't pick again until No. 103. McShay: Donovan McNabb is an immediate upgrade at quarterback so finding the replacement for retired LOT Chris Samuels is now the most glaring need. Okung is the safest, most complete tackle prospect this class has to offer and he should be ready to serve as McNabb's blindside protector as a rookie. Kansas City ChiefsEric Berry
S, TennesseeBryan Bulaga
OT, IowaKiper: Any question marks about Berry's physical skills were answered impressively during the testing phase, which is all he needed to maintain his standing as the premier safety of not just this draft, but as perhaps one of the best we've seen in a while. I can see the Chiefs being tempted by other players here, but Berry is a top talent and fills a need. I'll say it again: the Ed Reed comparisons are legit. McShay: Berry is the best player remaining on the board but positional value trends say that spending top-five money on a safety doesn't make fiscal sense. Oklahoma's Trent Williams is a superior talent to Bulaga but we don't expect Scott Pioli & Co. to take a risk on a player whose commitment to the game is in question. Bulaga may top out as a very good starting right tackle but that's just fine opposite current LT Branden Albert. Seattle SeahawksTrent Williams
OT, OklahomaEric Berry
S, TennesseeKiper: Williams is the most versatile player in the draft, a rare feat for an offensive lineman. Here's a guy who has played well at both tackle positions, and has even seen spot duty at center. A safe pick, because Williams can upgrade your offensive line in more than one place. Seattle has to improve its O-line with one of these picks, and Williams is more coveted each week. McShay: This is a tough call between Berry and OT Williams. The Seahawks have significant need at both positions and offensive tackle carries more weight, but Seattle could pass on Williams for the same reasons the Chiefs did one pick earlier. Plus, Berry is clearly the top defensive back in the 2010 class and he could fill a glaring hole in the middle of the Seahawks' defense. Cleveland BrownsDez Bryant
WR, Oklahoma StateDan Williams
DT, TennesseeKiper: I've talked to people around the league about Dez Bryant, and I can tell you the notion that there are concerns about Bryant's character is blown out of proportion. Here the Browns get the best WR in the draft, a threat they really need, and a player that, in a football environment, is a workhorse and a producer. I think K.C. will also be looking hard at Bryant at No. 5, but will ultimately pass and allow the Browns to get him. McShay: This would be a frustrating scenario for the Browns, who should be hoping Berry falls to them at this slot. RB C.J. Spiller would be a possibility but don't count out Williams, who appears to be a reach but will garner plenty of attention over the next few picks because he's the only legitimate first-round nose tackle in this class. Finding a long-term replacement for current NT Shaun Rogers is high on the priority list, and Rogers' recent run-in with the law might only increase the urgency. Oakland RaidersJimmy Clausen
QB, Notre DameTrent Williams
OT, OklahomaKiper: Clausen's upcoming pro day is obviously huge, but I think he'll show he has all the physical tools to be a very good NFL passer. Bottom line, the Raiders have no answer at the QB position on their roster. I also know that money they owe to JaMarcus Russell would not keep them from drafting Clausen if they believe he's the better long-term option. If Clausen doesn't go here, he could fall into a no-man's-land a la Brady Quinn or Aaron Rodgers, where a team trades into the late teens or twenties to pick him. I have ideas there, but we're strictly working within the current pick order. McShay: Williams might have been overshadowed by OT Bruce Campbell at this year's scouting combine, but Williams certainly put up numbers that owner Al Davis can put his stamp on. As an added bonus, Williams is actually capable of developing into a good starting left tackle in the NFL. Buffalo BillsBryan Bulaga
OT, IowaAnthony Davis
OT, RutgersKiper: The Bills need to keep whoever's throwing the ball upright, and Bulaga has the chance to be a good pass-protector at this level. I think the Bills would be thrilled to see Trent Williams available here, but in Bulaga, they have a chance to get a player at No. 9 that could go even higher. I think they simply take the best tackle on the board here. McShay: QB Jimmy Clausen is certainly in consideration but the Bills are in no position to start a rookie quarterback behind their existing offensive line. Davis needs to be motivated and his weight must be monitored, but we would argue he's the best pure pass-blocker in the 2010 crop. Jacksonville JaguarsC.J. Spiller
RB, ClemsonEarl Thomas
S, TexasKiper: Before they made moves to strengthen an anemic pass rush, this looked like a shoo-in for a Derrick Morgan or Jason Pierre-Paul -- and that could still happen -- but I've heard that the staff in Jacksonville feels they truly missed the presence of Fred Taylor, and want a young home run threat to augment the offense. In their division, the Jags need to score, and based on who I've talked to, Spiller isn't an outside shot here. He really is a player they can use. McShay: This pick could come down to a choice between Thomas and Alabama ILB Rolando McClain. The Jaguars have been burned before by drafting a safety in the first round (Reggie Nelson), but Thomas is simply a better football player. The free safety is mentally and physically prepared to make an immediate impact as a versatile ball hawk in the Jaguars' secondary. Denver Broncos (from Chicago)Earl Thomas
S, TexasRolando McClain
ILB, AlabamaKiper: There are scouts who will tell you Thomas is the best pure, instinctive football player in the whole draft. He has big-time aptitude. All that aside, he also fills a developing need for Denver, because Brian Dawkins isn't getting any younger. We've seen safeties rise late -- Donte Whitner to Buffalo, LaRon Landry to Washington -- in recent years, and Thomas fits nicely here. McShay: McClain is the only true inside linebacker with a first-round grade and that drives up his value. This might seem a bit early to take him, but McClain will be ready to start from day one and would be a nice centerpiece as the Broncos continue the youth movement in their fairly new 3-4 defensive scheme. Miami DolphinsDan Williams
DT, TennesseeDerrick Morgan
DE, Georgia TechKiper: Getting Karlos Dansby minimizes a need for a player like Rolando McClain here, and the Dolphins are thin up front, and also facing suspensions (Jason Ferguson). I liked Williams here before, and I still do. A great leverage player, he can occupy blockers and disrupt for the Fins. McShay: We would like to see Morgan in a 4-3 front, but Miami's 3-4 scheme features bigger bodies up front and Morgan would provide the pass-rush ability and toughness against the run a depleted Miami front seven desperately needs. San Francisco 49ersJoe Haden
CB, FloridaSergio Kindle
DE/OLB, TexasKiper: Questions have been raised about Haden's speed during the workout process, but a solid pro day helped alleviate concerns. Haden could go higher, because he's the CB most likely to step in immediately with both superior cover skills and the physicality to play in every situation. He's a natural fit for San Fran, which needs corner help. Getting the college game's top CB here is a great get most years. McShay: The 49ers' No. 1 priority is to find a right tackle to start opposite LT Joe Staley, but in this scenario the top four tackles are off the board. Manny Lawson came on last year and Kindle is a perfect fit as a pass-rusher on the other side of the line. Kindle would beef up the pass defense and is worth the pick here even though he does not fill a top need. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)Derrick Morgan
DE, Georgia TechC.J. Spiller
RB, ClemsonKiper: Seattle needs a pass-rusher on the edge of a 4-3 scheme, and Morgan is an ideal addition. He's got the pass-rushing skills to be a disruptive force, and the strength to hold up well in the run game. No player in college displayed more versatility from this position over the past season. If the Hawks add a top DE and OT in Round 1, they'll be, quite simply, a better football team. McShay: The Seahawks would bypass arguably their biggest need (OT) in this first-round scenario, but the good news is they would end up with two of the top seven players in this draft. Spiller is the most dynamic skill player on the board and would instantly upgrade the attack with his versatility in the running and passing games, and he can also contribute in the return game. New York GiantsRolando McClain
ILB, AlabamaMike Iupati
G, IdahoKiper: McClain is the top inside linebacker in the draft, and the Giants should be happy to grab him at No. 15. A fiery leader, instinctive and a great tackler, McClain's diagnostic skills point to great coaching. I can also see the Giants tempted if a player like Thomas is available here. McShay: McClain is a common projection here given the departure of Antonio Pierce but with McClain off the board look for the Giants to go with Iupati. They need to reestablish a physical tone on offense and drafting a dominant interior lineman would be a good step in that direction. Tennessee TitansJason Pierre-Paul
DE, South FloridaJason Pierre-Paul
DE, South FloridaKiper: Pierre-Paul fits exactly what the Titans need, and would be a great value here. (I can see Jacksonville grabbing him at No. 10.) Even as a raw talent, Pierre-Paul can be productive based on a set of physical skills that remind scouts of Mario Williams or Jevon Kearse. A potential future sack machine on the edge of Tennessee's 4-3, I think Jeff Fisher and the Titans jump at the chance to mold this kind of talent. McShay: Tennessee has seen its fair share of talented defensive linemen come and go under head coach Jeff Fisher, and while Pierre-Paul has a chance to become the next player on the list he is also a big-time risk. On one hand he is arguably the most naturally gifted defender on the board, but on the other hand there are concerns about his mental capacity and inexperience. However, Pierre-Paul is worth the risk at this point in the first round. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina)Anthony Davis
OT, RutgersJimmy Clausen
QB, Notre DameKiper: Davis has the upside of a Pro Bowl player at left tackle, which is where he lined up in Piscataway, but the Niners could move him to the right side to fill that void. Davis must still develop, but he has all requisite physical skills: great feet, long arms, prototype size. San Fran will make a pick to help the O-line in one of its two teen spots, and Davis is a smart pick here. McShay: There is a bigger need at offensive tackle but the remaining players at that position would be a reach here. We have the Niners passing on Clausen once and we don't give him a first-round grade but this seems like a reasonable spot for the No. 2 quarterback on the board. However, if Clausen gets past this spot it's hard to find another team in the first round with a primary or secondary quarterback need and he could be headed for a Brady Quinn-like free fall. Pittsburgh SteelersMaurkice Pouncey
C/G, FloridaMaurkice Pouncey
C/G, FloridaKiper: Pittsburgh has to address the interior along the offensive line, and Pouncey has emerged as the best center-guard combo available. The Steelers need an interior force that can help them get back to running the football effectively between the tackles, and Pouncey is the player that can do that. McShay: This seems like a perfect marriage. The Steelers want to get back to a physical, run-oriented approach and Pouncey has the versatility to play center or guard and work into the lineup sooner rather than later.
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« Reply #1 on: Apr 09, 2010 at 09:17 »

Oddly, most of the douchey duo's picks are not that far off.

1.1. Rams - MK: Sam Bradford, TM: Sam Bradford, FW: Sam Bradford.  I don't think the Rams' interest in Bradford is a smokescreen, but I do think Clausen is far more NFL-ready.  But Bradford, if healthy, should adapt quickly (cf. Sanchez).  Suh may be the best overall prospect, but you turn around fetid franchises by bringing in QBs.  It's how it works.

1.2. Lions - MK: Ndamukong Suh, TM; Ndamukong Suh, FW: Russell Okung.  Again, Suh could drop, but IMO Okung has the skills and measurables to be considered elite, so this isn't all that surprising.  The Lions selected Stafford last year and their tackles suck.  Protect the franchise.

1.3. Bucs - MK: Gerald McCoy, TM: Gerald McCoy, FW: Ndamukong Suh.  Not that McCoy's chopped liver, but the Bucs get the best DT in the draft; their new Sapp?

1.4. Skins - MK: Russell Okung, TM: Russell Okung, FW: Trent Williams.  Skins would love to see Okung here, as Williams was inconsistent at LT.  But he showed steady improvement and had one of the best Indy performances.  Looks like he could fit a Shanahan ZBS like a glove, and coincidentally met with the Skins this week.

1.5. Chiefs - MK: Eric Berry, TM: Bryan Bulaga, FW: Eric Berry.  Pioli has said he doesn't see safety as a top five positional value in the draft.  Bullshit.  Pioli's blowing a bongload of smoke and will be overjoyed to see Berry here.  Berry and Thomas may be the two best safeties to come out since Pola and Reed, and Berry is easily worth this pick.

1.6. Seahawks - MK: Trent Williams, TM: Eric Berry, FW: Gerald McCoy.  Seahawks need a premiere LT, but if Okung and Williams are off, McCoy will be too hard to pass up.  Seahawks need help on both lines and McCoy would be a nice fit.

1.7. Browns - MK: Dez Bryant, TM: Dan Williams, FW: Joe Haden.  Haden redeemed himself as a possible top-10 pick with a solid pro day; meanwhile, Dez Bryant is scaring off some suitors, and Dan Williams looks more like a 4-3 NT (27 reps isn't 3-4 NT material, JMO).  Browns need... everything... but they would be getting a great CB in a year when there are lots of good CBs.

1.8. Raiders - MK: Jimmy Clausen, TM: Trent Williams, FW: Bruce Campbell.  If Al Davis has shown us anything, it's that he's fucking nuts.  He'll draft a guy off measurables alone.  Bruce Campbell had an insane Indy set of workouts, a LT who ran a 4.75 (LeGarette Blount ran a 4.70).  Campbell may turn out to be a great LT, definitely a need for the Raiders, but his lack of starts and injury history may haunt the Raiders.  Jimmy Clausen doesn't fit Crazy Al's mold; Trent Williams might.

1.9. Bills - MK: Bryan Bulaga, TM: Anthony Davis, FW: Jimmy Clausen.  It's true the Bills need line help badly, but their QBs are Ryan Fitzpatrick, Brian Brohm, and Trent Edwards.  In other words, castoffs.  Again, you turn around a franchise from the top, and new coach Chan Gailey knows this.  If Clausen is there, you can bet he'll take him, and still find OT help at the top of R2.

1.10. Jaguars - MK: CJ Spiller, TM: Earl Thomas, FW: Derrick Morgan.  IMO, the Jags see more value in Morgan, who can help revive their pass rush, than Spiller or Thomas.  Spiller seems redundant with MJD, and while Reggie Nelson is wretched and Thomas would actually fit there, I still think they're more committed to fixing the DL.  But Thomas is certainly possibly.

1.11. Broncos - MK: Earl Thomas, TM: Rolando McClain, FW: Rolando McClain.  Again, Thomas would be a huge upgrade over Renaldo Hill, but the Broncos axed Andra Davis and literally have no one at ILB.  McClain would be a nice fit here and there will be solid SS and FS value throughout the draft; McClain will be a bigger impact player for the Broncos.

1.12. Dolphins - MK: Dan Williams, TM: Derrick Morgan, FW: Dan Williams.  Fins are running a 3-4 scheme, and I still don't think Williams is a true 3-4 NT, but I don't think the Fins are unhappy with Kendall Langford or Randy Starks at DE.  They will likely look to replace Jason Ferguson at NT, and bring in some OLB help.  Some 3-4 team may well see Williams as a 3-4 NT, and there's plenty of solid OLB in R2.

1.13. 49ers - MK: Joe Haden, TM: Sergio Kindle, FW: CJ Spiller.  Like Kiper, I don't think Haden makes it out of the top 15 now, and if he gets out of the top 10 SF is a nice landing.  Kindle in the top 15 is lunacy, IMO.  He's too one-dimensional and I don't see him even in R1 at all, although some folks may passionately disagree.  IMO, Mike Singletary knows the problem is an offense that is about as energetic as roadkill, so look for playmakers and line help with the 49ers' two R1 picks.  Spiller would be a sparkplug complement to Gore, a nice multi-dimenional weapon.

1.14. Seahawks - MK: Derrick Morgan, TM: CJ Spiller, FW: Anthony Davis.  Seahawks brought in Charlie Whitehurst from SD as a guy to develop behind Hasselbeck, and the LT spot has been shaky for a couple of years now.  Kiper and I have Seattle using one of its two R1's on a LT, and I don't believe Anthony Davis falls out of the top 20 due to perceived laziness.  Dex Bryant has more flags than Davis, IMO. 

1.15. Giants - MK: Rolando McClain, TM: Mike Iupati, FW: Sean Weatherspoon.  I agree with Kiper that ILB is a major need, but if McClain is off the board, I suspect Spoon won't be rated much lower for them.  He's an active player and a leader on the field, and I think most mocks are sleeping on him.  Think Timmons's skill set with Porter's mouth.

1.16. Titans - MK: Jason Pierre-Paul, TM: Jason-Pierre Paul, FW: Kyle Wilson.  I think I may have JPP rated too low, as most mocks have him going mid-R1, but I have some questions about whether he has shown enough to go this high.  He could well be this year's Jamaal Anderson or Jarvis Mock, so I'm wary, and have him late-R1.  Titans also need a CB who's not a geriatric, and Kyle Wilson seems to have emerged as the 1b behind Haden.  IMO, Wilson, McCourty, and Kareem Jackson could all be R1 selections, though I see them as R2 talents.

1.17. 49ers - MK: Anthony Davis, TM: Jimmy Clausen, FW: Mike Iupati.  Again, I'm agreeing more with Kiper: CB + OL makes more sense than OLB + QB, which is bizarre at best.  Alex Smith will have a hard time living up to his draft billing, but he played well enough last year to show that QB is not a pressing need.  OL help and playmakers (and CB) definitely are.  If Davis and the top tackles are off, Iupati has the flexibility to play either OG spot or RT, and some think he may be able to be coached up to try LT.  I think he's a bit too raw right now, but some feel he may be the best OG prospect in a decade.

1.18. Steelers - MK: Maurkice Pouncey, TM: Maurkice Pouncey, FW: Earl Thomas.  It looks like Thomas may not be there at 18, but if he is there's no way we pass him up.  One, he's a huge upgrade over Clark, and two, he can fill in if Pola is hurt again.  We need turnovers on D, and this kid's a playmaker.  The Steelers like Pouncey, but at 18?  Bad positional value, IMO, unless we trade down for an extra R2 or R3 pick.  Pouncey could possibly start at RG and transition to C in a year or two, but IMO there's not a huge difference between Pouncey and, say, Matt Tennant or JD Walton in R2-3.  Pouncey is not as good a C prospect as Mangold, Alex Mack, or even Eric Wood, although he seems to have some good upside.  Taking Pouncey here wouldn't be the worst idea, but there are better players left on MK's and TM's board.

Out of my mind on Saturday night...
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« Reply #2 on: Apr 09, 2010 at 12:11 »

Thanks for cleaning that up, sir.  I can provide the rest of the picks if people want.  Just keep in mind that it'll be in that jumbled mess format.
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