Colbert and the late rounds

[Finnegans Wake]

Here's a list of players drafted R4 and on since Colbert's been GM.  I've bolded the ones who weren't total turds, italicized the borderlines.

Danny Farmer   
Clark Haggans
Tee Martin
Chris Combs
Jason Gavadza
Mathias Nkwenti
Chukky Okobi
Rodney Bailey
Roger Knight
Larry Foote
Verron Haynes
Lee Mays
LaVar Glover
Brett Keisel
Ivan Taylor   
Brian St. Pierre
J.T. Wall
Nathaniel Adibi
Bo Lacy
Matt Kranchick
Drew Caylor
Eric Taylor
Fred Gibson   
Rian Wallace
Chris Kemoeatu
Shaun Nua   
Noah Herron
Willie Colon   
Orien Harris
Omar Jacobs
Charles Davis
Marvin Philip
Cedric Humes
Daniel Sepulveda
Ryan McBean
Cameron Stephenson
William Gay
Dallas Baker
Tony Hills
Dennis Dixon
Mike Humpal
Ryan Mundy
Joe Burnett
Frank Summers
Ra'Shon Harris
AQ Shipley
David Johnson

It'd be interesting to peg guys who did stick, and succeed, with other teams, who were on the board after we took the Bo Lacys of the world.

I don't have that kind of patience, but maybe on of you young kids would like to.

[msdmnr2002]

So I counted 47 picks.  8 good players and 11 borerlines.

I really don't have a frame of reference to see how good or bad this is.  I would figure a late round pick would have a 50/50 chance of making it out of camp, less than that of being a significant contributor, which is about what this looks like (some turds did stick for a while, as turds are wont to do on occasion).  But I don't know.  Also factor in that the Steelers have overall been pretty successful over the past several years, which means they have quality players and there is less turnover; therefore less chance of a borderline guy to stick and get playing time.

Is this as bad as it looks?  Dunno.

[pensodyssey]

Yeah, I'd need to see the track record of other gm's before assessing Colbert here.

[sysadmin7]

Well, consider the Colts, Ravens, Chargers and Patriots (off the top of my head) seem to use their draft, as well as UDRFA's on their roster. The Colts had 2 UDRFA WR's in their 3rd and 4th WR slot during the end of the year.

I'd have to say that K. Colbert is the worst late round drafting GM in the NFL. I'll even go on to say his 2nd and 3rd round guys are suspect at times.

K. Colbert needs to keep his hands out of the draft. And every scout we have needs fired. Also, I believe we are the only team that reaches in the 2nd round for a "special teams" guy right now when others look to solidify their roster. This draft was LOADED with late round talent, even looking through the UDRFA pool I see kids that are better than what we selected. We could have taken a guy a DE/OLB in the later rounds. Sure, some might blossom...but everyone on here knows most of them will be gone before too long. It's just how the Steelers do business. We have done exceptionally well at drafting, since we build through the draft....but since the K. Colbert era it's slim pick'ins. The depth of our roster showed last season. We were so desperate at FS we even tried I. Taylor at it for a half or so. You know, when you put a guy like I. Taylor who has brick hands in at FS the depth on your team sucks.

If Dennis Dixon starts the 4-6 games that Big Ben are out and he plays well, I look for us to trade Ben at the end of the season as well. I can just see the writing on the wall. I also look for us to dump Woodley or Harrison in the process.

[Manimal]

I ran some searches at pro-football-reference.com, for the 4th through 7th round of each draft since (and including) 2000. I've posted links to them below, with one link per season for easier viewing. It's really easy to scan the results, since players in bold are still active, and you can sort by pro bowl appearances and years spent as a starter. You can also sort by stats to get a sense of some significant, non-starting players.

Anyway, in doing this, I learned that our drafts haven't been as bad as I thought compared to what else was available. The truth is this: there's a lot of dreck in the draft after round 3. These picks are, statistically, almost worthless. We're talking a handful -- like 3 to 5 -- guys per round who have any kind of impactful careers. In addition to that, the rate of success plummets progressively -- round 4 is a lot more likely to find productive contributors than is round 6, for example.

In other words, we should restrict our hand-wringing about our draft to any picks we make in rounds 1 through 4, but especially rounds 1 and 2, as those are the money rounds. The bottom line is that Colbert is not missing out on any great talents in these rounds -- because there isn't much there. Drafting an Ike Taylor or a Clark Haggans, it appears, is actually a pretty darn good accomplishment.

Some other notes: maybe this won't surprise anyone, but some drafts are way better than others. Check out 2001 - a terrible draft for these rounds. Then look at just the 4th round of 2006 -- lots of good players in that one round, which is unususal for this sample.

For drafts 2000 through 2003, I spent time picking out players who made the pro bowl (usually a very short list), and those who have started several seasons.

2000: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&tm=all&year_1=2000&year_2=2000&conference=any&type=

Best players, in order of pro bowl appearances: Beardy (6th), P Shane Lechler (6th), LB Adalius Thomas (6th), QB Marc Bulger (6th), PR Dante Hall (5th), DE KGB (5th)
Other notable players with 5 or more years as a starter or productive part-timer: T Mark Tauscher (7th), FB Terrelle Smith (4th), LB Na'il Digs (4th), LB Clark Haggans (5th), LB Danny Clark (7th) RB Sammy Morris (5th), LB Dhani Jones (6th), , DE Robaire Smith (6th)

2001: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2001&year_2=2001&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

Pro Bowlers, in order of appearances: WR Houshmanzadeh (7th), WR Alex Bannister [?] (5th), RB Rudi Johnson (5th) -- with one each.

Others with notable starting experience: T Rian Diem (4th), G Ben Hamilton (4th), DB Renaldo Hill (7th), DB Marlon Mcree (7th), G Roberto Garza (4th), TE Brandon Manemanelauna (4th), DB Anthony Henry (4th), WR McCariens (4th), LB Ed Hartwell (4th), WR Cedrick Wilson (6th)

2002: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2002&year_2=2002&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

Pro Bowlers: DE Aaron Kampmon (5th), the only guy to make a single pro bowl out of this group.

Other notables: LB Scott Fujita (5th), LB Andra Davis (5th), TE Randy McMichael (4th), LB David Thornton (4th), DE Alex Brown (4th), C Justin Hartwig (6th), LB Larry Foote (4th), DE Brett Keisel (7th), QB David Garrard (4th), DE Jarvis Green (4th), RB Chester Taylor (6th)

2003: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2003&year_2=2003&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

Pro Bowlers: CB Asante Samuel (4th), DE Robert Mathis (5th), a few other one-timers

Other notables: G David Diehl (5th), C Dan Koppen (5th), DB/KR Terrence McGee (4th), CB Ike Taylor (4th), LB Bradie James (4th), LB Cato June (6th), DE Jarrett Johnson (4th)

2004: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2004&year_2=2004&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

2005: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2005&year_2=2005&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

2006: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2006&year_2=2006&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

2007: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2007&year_2=2007&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

2008: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2008&year_2=2008&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

2009: http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/draft_query.cgi?year_1=2009&year_2=2009&tm=all&pos=ALL&round_1=4&round_2=7&slot_1=1&slot_2=500&conference=any&show=all&lg=ANY&type=

[Preacherman0]

It seems that Colbert looks pretty awful in the late rounds for two reasons beyond stats.

1.  He always seems to draft for positions that we do not need;

2.  He always seems to pass on some player that looks and/or performs much better than the guy we drafted.

His picks of Keisel and Foote were actually stellar (both underrated, especially Keisel).  But he has reached in the second round more than once; and he seems to blow his wad early (a problem for middle-aged men, or so I've heard) by drafting guys that would clearly be on the board at a later time.  Ziggy and Pouncey would have lasted, IMO. 

And then, we can turn to his failure to draft a solid OT since Marvel Smith.  Yes, Max and Willie were much better last season, but Starks is still an underachiever and Colon is an overachiever.  He has passed on several guys that went on to be solid starters on other teams. 

So is he as bad as we think?  Probably not.  But is he as good as he should be?  Definitely not.

[pensodyssey]

Nice work manimal.