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Author Topic: Week 15 - Dec 19 - NYJ  (Read 4017 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #10 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 11:41 »

Steelers -6.5?

Fuck, I hate lines like that.  We usually play shitty for some reason, and IMO it makes no sense in a game where defenses should dominate, and neither offense has shown much lately.  13-10, 10-7, 9-6, that kinda game.

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« Reply #11 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 12:02 »

A steady diet of #92 and #56 should have whats-his-face's head spinning.  Look for another D outscores the O type of game.  Hopefully not for the Jests though.  What is that QB's name?  That Vinnie-Chase-looking mofo.  Yeah, take that, Jests fans, your QB looks like a fictional character on a crappy cable sitcom.  So there.

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« Reply #12 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 12:37 »

Quote
What is that QB's name?

DIRTY SANCHEZ is the name!  For heaven's sake, how hard is that to remember Jonzr?

I still say this game is screaming "Safety!"  Okay, I'll change it up:  5-3 Steelers in extra innings.  JH strips the ball in the EZ.  Casey Hampton jumps on it cause he thought it was a swiss cake roll.  He gets hungry after 7 pm.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #13 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 13:12 »

Stuff 'n' thangs.

Was comparing Ben's and Juan Valdez's stats.

  • They've faced five common foes this season, so I wanted to see how their passer ratings stacked up.  For teams like the Pats and Fins that Valdez has faced twice, I averaged his two games and then took the difference.  Teams included the Pats, Fins, Rats, Bengals, and Browns.

    Ben's passer rating was an average 18.63 points higher than Juan's (100.42 versus 81.13.)
  • In repeat games, Juan's second performance has plummeted.  In the first Pats matchup, he notched a 124.3 passer rating.  In the second game, just 27.8.  In the first Fins game, he had a 120.5 rating.  In the second, 45.3.  It's true that the entire Jets offense seems to be in a swoon, but Juan Valdez is undeniably part of that swoon.
  • Speaking of wild mood swings... Juan's pedestrian 74.2 passer rating is really a tale of two QBs.  He's had 4 exceptional games (rating > 100): NE, Miami, Buffalo, Houston.  And he's had 6 stinkers (rating < 70): Balty, Minnesota, Denver (?), Green Bay, NE, and Miami.  By comparison, Ben's 94.8 passer rating is the model of stability, with two exceptional games (Cleveland and Oakland) and one stinker (NO).
  • Ben has 13 TDs and 5 INTs and 2336 passing yards in 9 starts.  Juan has 16-12 and 2852.  On a per-game basis, that's 1.44 TD to .56 INT and 259.6 yards passing for Ben to 1.23 TD and .92 INT and 219.4 yards passing for Juan.
  • Ben is tied for 3rd in the league in YPA at 8.0, along with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady.  Juan is fifth from the bottom at 6.5, just ahead of the anemic Carson Palmer.
  • Ben is tied for fifth best INT % with 1.7% (along with Matt Ryan).  Juan is right in the middle of the pack at 2.7%, just ahead of Ryan Fitzpatrick (2.9%) and Jimmy Clausen (3.1%) and just behind Peyton Manning (2.6%), who is having a miserable year.
  • Ben's been sacked 26 times behind one of the worst OL in recent memory.  Valdez has been sacked 26 times behind what most consider a very stout OL.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #14 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 13:34 »

More stuff.

On offense:
  • For the last few years our 3rd down conversion % has been relatively poor.  I hadn't checked it this year, assuming the worst, but found we're converting 40.3%.  That's not great, but it's 13th in the league, which ain't terrible.  The Jets, with that great OL and ground game, are only converting 37.5%, or 17th best in the league -- a number much closer to what we had been converting the last few years.
  • Our sluggish offense has somehow managed to score 22.3 PPG, 16th in the league.  The Jets score 21.0, or 18th.
  • Pittsburgh, including the Dixon/Batch/Lefty stats, gains 212.2 yards through the air (18th) and 120.2 on the ground (10th).  The Jets get 207.0 (21st) and 143.7 (6th).

On defense:  
  • Steelers allowing 15.2 PPG (2nd), Jets allowing 18.6 (6th).
  • Steelers allowing 293 yards per game (4), Jets allowing 292.5 (3).  Of that, Steelers allowing 232.9 (23) through the air and 60.1 (1) via the ground; Jets allowing 203.9 (9) through the air and 88.5 (3) on the ground.
  • Steelers and Jets allow only 4.7 total yards per play, tied for second in the league.
  • Steelers have allowed 14 receiving TDs (4th), the Jets 20 (T-10th); league average is 19.1 TDs allowed.  Steelers have allowed 4 rushing TDs (T-1st), the Jets 8 (5th); league average is 10.1 TDs.
  • Steelers have 30 takeaways (17 INT, 13 FUM) to 16 gives (9 INT, 7 FUM), or +14, 3rd best behind NE and Philly.  Jets have 23 takeaways (7 INT, 16 FUM) to 18 gives (12 INT and 6 FUM), or +5 (T-8th).  Last year, the Steelers were -3 in give/take, with 12 INT.
« Last Edit: Dec 14, 2010 at 13:37 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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« Reply #15 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 15:13 »

Great stuff, Finny.  You are backing up my argument from a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger is the second-best quarterback in the league.

BTW, I still hear the argument that he holds the ball too long and that's why he gets so beat up.  He still does that sometimes, but he's doing it less and less, IMO.  And it still doesn't justify the beat-down he takes at the hands of defenders, while other QBs remain untouchable. 
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« Reply #16 on: Dec 14, 2010 at 15:43 »

Great stuff, Finny.  You are backing up my argument from a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger is the second-best quarterback in the league.

BTW, I still hear the argument that he holds the ball too long and that's why he gets so beat up.  He still does that sometimes, but he's doing it less and less, IMO.  And it still doesn't justify the beat-down he takes at the hands of defenders, while other QBs remain untouchable. 

Like I said in the game thread for the Cinci game, BA actually made some adjustments to the rush.  There was one short pass that Ben got and got rid of for a completion that had me floored.  As in, why can't we do that all that time?
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« Reply #17 on: Dec 15, 2010 at 11:08 »

I'm inspired to continue the comparison of Ben to Sancho by bringing in the ratings and commentary from Football Outsiders' Quick Readshttp://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads feature. Each entry below shows a number before each QB, showing where he ranked among all quarterbacks for that week's games. The name is followed by a string of numbers, the last three of which are FO nerdisms of various sorts. For what it's worth. Just showing the most recent games. The rankings and FO numbers take everything into account - the quality of the opposing defense, the game situation (minimizing garbage time, hail mary interceptions, etc.)

Some good commentary on Ben's work, especially the notes about how amazing he's been on 2nd-and-long, and the commentary about his 4th quarter against the Patriots. (which makes me think, if we meet them again, we should consider a no-huddle, guns-blazing approach to offense.)


Last week - Steelers vs. Bengals, Jets vs. Dolphins
8. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 21/32 258 0 0 89 78 11 The place where Roethlisberger did his best work, strangely? Second-and-a-mile. He picked up 18 yards on second-and-12, 22 yards on second-and-20, and even 29 yards on second-and-30. In fact, on his last ten passes in second-and-more-than-10, Roethlisberger is 10-of-10 for 155 yards with five first downs. Of course, one of the reasons why he had so many second-and-long situations was his lack of progress on first down. After his first three attempts were successful, Ben's eight subsequent dropbacks on first down produced just one successful play, a 21-yard pass to Hines Ward.  

29. Mark Sanchez NYJ 17/43 216 0 1 -108 -121 13 On one hand, you have Santonio Holmes dropping a perfectly reasonable pass in the end zone in the second quarter. Unlucky. On the other hand, the Jets recovered three of Sanchez's four fumbles on sacks, including both of his fumbles on the final drive. He ended up with just one interception on the day, a testament to the trickiness of catching footballs when you're not paid to do so. Sean Smith could have had three picks alone. Through the first ten weeks of charting, Sanchez had 10 dropped interceptions, more than anyone in the league (the other 31 teams averaged 3.5 dropped picks). If he can play as poorly as he did today and still be lucky, how bad is it going to be if he plays like this and isn't lucky? And it's not that Sanchez is incompetent, because he's perfectly capable of making great throws and does so regularly. It's that his variance is downright incredible; he can look like the best quarterback in the league on one play and look like a college freshman on the very next one.  

Steelers vs. Ravens, Jets vs. Patriots
8. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 22/38 253 1 1 98 98 0 No bonus points for leading a game-winning drive with an S-shaped nose, alas. Roethlisberger produced 13 first downs on 41 dropbacks, taking just three sacks against the Ravens defense while avoiding a couple others with escapes and/or throw aways. His two longest pass plays of the game went to Emmanuel Sanders and David Johnson. That would have been a fun prop bet to win.  
32. Mark Sanchez NYJ 17/33 164 0 3 -143 -133 -10 [Ranked last - No comments given]

Steelers vs Bills, Jets vs Bengals
18. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 20/32 246 0 0 40 32 8 The Steelers just stopped throwing the ball in the second half. Part of it was that the Bills retained a fair amount of possession, but in the first half, Roethlisberger was 14-of-20 for 158 yards with nine first downs. (He was also sacked three times.) His reward was to throw just 14 times over the final three quarters of the game, in which he went 6-of-12 for 70 yards with four first downs. A fifth was taken away when Emmanuel Sanders dropped a sure first down on a crossing pattern.  
22. Mark Sanchez NYJ 16/28 166 1 1 -1 -1 0 Left without a clutch overtime drive to run, Sanchez practiced his checkdowns: He was 5-of-9 (with one sack) on third down, but only two of those completions resulted in first downs.  

Steelers vs Raiders, Jets vs Texans
1. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 18/29 275 3 0 205 171 34 Although he doesn't receive any credit from our advanced metrics for drawing that palm strike from Richard Seymour, Roethlisberger was able to consistently make big plays against a Raiders defense that was missing Nnamdi Asomugha. Eight of Roethlisberger's 18 completions were for 15 yards or more, and only three of his completions all day were considered to be "unsuccessful" throws that didn't push the team towards or into a new set of downs. It was a good mix of play types, too. Mike Wallace got matched up against a linebacker on a crossing route and ran through the Raiders defense for one score. Hines Ward got lost down the sideline against zone coverage for another big play. Heath Miller caught a quick throw and rumbled 16 yards afterwards for another. Everyone's going to have to stay healthy, and left tackle Jonathan Scott is still a major question mark, but this passing offense can be better than the version with Santonio Holmes from a year ago.  
22. Mark Sanchez NYJ 22/37 315 3 1 28 17 11
I'm sorry if this upsets some folks, but this was a pretty mediocre performance with one great drive. Take out the opponent adjustments for everyone and Sanchez would rank 11th; he gained 63 DYAR on that incredible final drive, but that was set up by an interception that DYAR also sees as game-crushing. Before the game-winning drive, Sanchez's fourth quarter had seen him go 2-of-7 for 29 yards with a sack and that pick. He was only converted three of the ten third downs he faced, but those completions went for 18, 26, and 41 yards, so he made sure they were worthwhile when he got them. Ascribe whatever amount of poise or moxie you want to him, but make sure he keeps getting extra chances at the end of games to make big plays, because he sure has needed them these past few weeks.  

Steelers vs Patriots, Jets vs Browns
6. Ben Roethlisberger PIT 31/48 392 3 1 158 152 6 Yes, a fair amount of his performance came in mopup work. But every quarterback has to mopup at one point or another, and not all of them have a quarter where they go 20-of-22 for 261 yards. It came against the Patriots, and one of those incompletions was actually an interception that was returned for a touchdown, but that's about as much as you can possibly do to get your team back into a game late. He wasn't just checking down, either; 195 of those yards came through the air.  

10. Mark Sanchez NYJ 27/44 299 2 1 145 138 8
Mark Sanchez is a series of contradictory statements. Sanchez is lucky because the Browns dropped two interceptions in the red zone, including an Abram Elam pick that the Browns safety treated like a hand grenade. Sanchez is unlucky because Nick Folk turned three of his drives into zero points. Sanchez is clutch because he hit Santonio Holmes for a game-winning touchdown with 24 seconds left; he isn't clutch because it took him four drives to get there. The one interception he actually did end up throwing was a good matchup (Braylon Edwards vs. Joe Haden) well downfield on third-and-long. If you compare that throw to his near-picks, it was by far the best decision of the three. He also did an excellent Ben Roethlisberger impression late in the game, working his way out of two sure sacks to pick up a pair of first downs, and he picked up a rushing touchdown in the second quarter. It was a good performance that could have been much better or much worse.  


« Last Edit: Dec 15, 2010 at 11:10 by Manimal » Logged
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« Reply #18 on: Dec 16, 2010 at 14:42 »

Thats all great and informative, but not as great and informative as our own Penso!  He just turned 40 ya know.   Grin
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« Reply #19 on: Dec 16, 2010 at 15:15 »

Jets imploding.

Ryan quipping in pressers that he considered sitting the Cleveland Steamer in favor of Burnhell last week...confirming that he'd do so in the future as well if he felt it was warranted.

Man Teats Jr. also throwing his defense under the wheels by saying that giving up 10 points isn't good enough to get it done.

SanAntonio Homes of...THE Ohio State University and formerly of...THE World Champion Pittsburgh Steelers coming out and saying that he flat out asked to be taken off punt return duties because Miami's punter was flat out bombing it and not giving him good return opportunities.

EDIT:  Oh, and I forgot to mention the week prior, it's good to see that SH is still doing that stupid, MFing bicep curl, ball-point-drop-from-the-shoulder first down signal move thing...even when the scoreboard shows the Green Knob Gobblers are down by 8 and a half TDs.

There are other highlight clips, but they escape me ATM.

Almost makes me wanna roll with the Steelers (-6) on a line that Vegas is screaming at John Q Public (not a bad flick, btw) to take the underdog.  

Almost...

Steelers, 23-13, 20-13...something like that.
« Last Edit: Dec 16, 2010 at 15:19 by aj_law » Logged

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