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Author Topic: Week 15 - Dec 19 - NYJ  (Read 4136 times)
Merman1983
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« Reply #20 on: Dec 16, 2010 at 17:14 »

Bad news from Wexell:

Heath's having headaches. I expect him to miss Sunday. Troy limping more this week. Wouldn't comment.

http://twitter.com/jimwexell
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #21 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 07:58 »

Bad news from Wexell:

Heath's having headaches. I expect him to miss Sunday. Troy limping more this week. Wouldn't comment.

http://twitter.com/jimwexell


Looks like they're BOTH going to be out.  Hope Troy's injury doesn't linger.

Even with a game lead over the Ratties, we still need to keep getting wins to ensure a bye and to get healthy.
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« Reply #22 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 08:06 »

Quote
ets imploding.

Ryan quipping in pressers that he considered sitting the Cleveland Steamer in favor of Burnhell last week...confirming that he'd do so in the future as well if he felt it was warranted.

Man Teats Jr. also throwing his defense under the wheels by saying that giving up 10 points isn't good enough to get it done.

Ryan is doing that BS on purpose.  Team plays on emotion, so he's trying to create emotion.  My theory is that schtick gets old fairly quickly in the NFL.  We'll see Sunday if it pumps the Greenies up or if they take more of the "Screw You!" approach. 

Overall, that can work for some games but I don't think it gets you to a championship.

Troy and Heat out is going to make this brutally tough, along with Arians hanging Ben out to dry with the no-huddle against a team that blitzes every play.

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Merman1983
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« Reply #23 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 08:11 »

Yeah, both are out per the post gazzette.

We gotta pull this one off and have New Orleans do us a solid this week. Then we can beat Carolina with me at safety therefore getting these guys a good 2-3 weeks to get over these injuries.

As much as we've been stung by the injury bug this year getting Troy, Heath, Ben, and anyone else a  week or two off and back near 100% and Smith back in the lineup would be a huge shot in the arm.
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« Reply #24 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 08:49 »

Honestly, the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to sit Troy and Heat this week.  Oh, the media will crucify the Steelers as "dead" and put the Jets up on the pedestal again, but who cares?

As msdmnr has pointed out, the Steelers can lose this game and still get the division by beating Carolina and Cleveland.  Cle will be tough, but why not sit the wounded this week and next to give them plenty of rest for that game?  Then get the bye week, and we have a chance to be reasonably healthy going into the playoffs.

I want the Steelers to win this, but it may be the better part of valor to live to fight (healthy) another day.  If the Saints can help out this week, that would be a nice bonus.
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« Reply #25 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 10:37 »

The more I think about the game, the more uneasy I get.  This has the feel of one of those games where the opposing defense dials up the blitz on every play, and Ben gets sacked about 8 times.  It's going to be a painful day.  Both teams have solid defenses and sputtering offenses, so this certainly seems like a 13-10 kind of game.  The Vegas line of Steelers by 5.5 (earlier in the week it was 6.5) is still way too high, and the Steelers generally respond to being heavy favorites against quality foes by shitting the bed.  I think these teams are very well matched, and the line should be 3 or 3.5. 

When the Steelers have the ball...

The Steelers and Jets defenses are allowing a virtually identical 293.0 and 292.5 yards per game.  Likewise, both squads don't allow much on the ground (60.1 and 88.5, respectively).  That means the game will be won or lost by the PSO being able to fend off Rex Ryan throwing the kitchen sink at BBR, and Mark Sanchez breaking out of his funk. 

The Jets only have 32 sacks on the year (11th in the league), sandwiched between Seattle (31) and Philadelphia (33).  Of course, Buffalo only had 15 sacks before running into the Steelers, and they notched 5 in that matchup.  Expect Ryan to overload the edge to overwhelm extra TE or RB in to chip and to exploit favorable personnel matchups.  Also expect plenty of timing blitzes up the middle, to create confusion in the IOL.  All of this will work.

OLB Calvin Pace (4.5 sacks) will make life miserable for Jon Scott.  I'm putting the over/under for sacks allowed by Scott at 2.5.  DE Shaun Ellis (4.5 sacks) will work the gap between Ramon Foster and Flo Adams, with help from OLB Bryan Thomas (4.0 sacks) on the edge.  I'll say the Ellis/Thomas v. Foster/Adams combo has an over/under of 3.5 sacks.  ILB David Harris (3.0 sacks) should account for the remaining 2 sacks getting lost in the handoffs between Foster and Pouncey, and Kemoeatu and Pouncey.  Ryan would be smart to throw in a few corner or safety blitzes as well.  In short, the best policy for the Jets would just be to throw everything at the slipshod PSO OL and dare BBR and BA to get the quick passing game to work, somehow, suddenly.

To counter this, I am confident that Bruce Arians will use absolutely no PAP, no quick screens to Mike Wallace, no short under routes to exploit the catch-and-go mismatches that Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown present to the Jets secondary (this is why we drafted these two, so naturally we won't play to their strengths).  What we will see is plenty of lazy screens to the oldest and slowest WRs, with at least one obligatory screen each to Hines Ward and Antwan Randle El.  We'll see plenty of dumpoffs to Mewelde Moore that come up just short of converting third downs.  We won't see dumpoffs to Isaac Redman, because he has shown he could catch in the slop of the Ravens defense and bull through tacklers.  There was a quick-fire pass to one of the rookies last week that we may never see again in our lifetime.  There was also a pitch from Randle El that gained effective edge yardage, and that too will be retired.  Expect plenty of Mendenhall up the middle for a loss, as defenders shred the gaps.  Expect the running game to never get any momentum and to be abandoned by the second half.  Expect nothing over the middle to Spaeth.  And I would certainly rule out the no-huddle, which BBR runs quite effectively.  Look for the worst offensive stats from this unit all year long.

Expected scoring drives:  I'll say that we break our scoring drought as Ben is allowed to run the no-huddle during the BA-approved period, the wind-down to halftime.  This is when BA likes to think about heading back to the locker room and popping a Hot Pocket into the microwave, which BA enjoys more than coming up with plays that actually work.  Ben gets us to scoring position, and Suisham gets 3 on the board to bring us to 3-10.  Late in the game, Ben beats the Jets secondary on the standy "heave it to Wallace and hope he outruns everyone," catching the Jets napping.  This brings the score to 10-13, but then BA fucks up subsequent drives with his asinine and predictable playcalling. 

When the Jets have the ball...

RT Wayne Hunter is the weakest spot on a pretty decent OL.  This should mean LaMarr Woodley keeps collapsing the pocket and harassing Sanchez, and Woodley has been more effective recently.  For some reason, the PSD seems unable to pressure weak offensive links that seem to be obvious mismatches, so expect Woodley to get stood up by Hunter, expect Harrison to be held on every play (not called), and most of the pressure coming from the DL collapsing the middle.  Keisel will get his mitts in the air and deflect a couple of throws.  Hood may get a sack.  LeBeau would be smart to send Timmons or Gay on blitzes (timing, corner). 

The opening drive always seems to find our defense adjusting to what opposing teams offenses are doing.  Expect some initial success running the ball, the PSD clamping down, and an early FG.  From there on it's all about numbers.  How can the NYJO exploit the weak secondary depth, especially now that Polamalu is out?  You should see plenty of throws to the TE Keller to exploit the soft middle, and you should see Cotchery and Holmes rotate against Gay, with great success.  Ike will probably be on Braylon Edwards; the over/under for drops by Taylor and Edwards has to be 2.5.  I'm envisioning Holmes beating Gay and the backup for Polamalu, presumably Will Allen (though Ryan Mundy could see time too), and taking it right down the middle for a score in the first half.   

Whoever isn't on Gay will be matched up against McFadden, so I suspect that receiver will be the recipient of the usual late game breakdowns McFadden seems to enjoy so much.  Since Holmes gets the early score, let's say a second half of offensive futility is interrupted by a third quarter pass play that goes long to Cotchery, resulting in a FG and a 13-3 lead.  Then the PSO long pass to Wallace; then nothing resulting in points.  The tone of the game will be weariness and cold futility, as Ben gets smeared and our PSD cannot return the favor.  However, Sanchez won't have great success, because he's over-rated at this point and he forces too many inopportune throws.  The NYJO will exploit a breakdown by McFadden late in the game but be forced to settle for a Nick Folk FG attempt, which he misses, not that it matters.

Ben, under pressure, throws one pick to Cromartie, but being sacked 8 times doesn't allow many attempts, so his stats will be pretty clean.  Mendenhall will get stripped on a spin move.  Sanchez will get picked by Timmons, and will lose a fumble as Keisel slaps the ball out of his hands.  Steelers will notch 2 sacks (Timmons, Farrior).  Much of the game will be a ST chess match for field position.  The PSD will be on the field too long, but will play well overall. 

Roethlisberger: 16-27-163-0-1.
Sanchez: 26-43-258-1-1.

Mendenhall: 14-39.
Moore: 5-17.
Tomlinson: 10-43.
Greene: 8-22.

Wallace:  3-63-1.
Ward: 5-53.
Moore: 5-23.
Holmes: 5-74-1.
Cotchery: 7-64.
Keller:  5-60.
Tomlinson: 6-32.

Jets win 13-10.

Everyone will be very grumpy after this game, but we then win the next two to finish 12-4.  Yay!
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leighclay
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« Reply #26 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 13:46 »

Troy will reportedly be doubtful for Sunday, possibly until the playoffs.

While I'm bummed about this, I'd much rather have a fully healthy Troy for the playoffs than for these last 3.  I think we can handle this stretch without him.




BTW, what happened to all the smiley options?  Or did I just get banned because I use them too often??
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« Reply #27 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 20:55 »

We lose this one 17-13.
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« Reply #28 on: Dec 17, 2010 at 21:17 »

BTW, what happened to all the smiley options?  Or did I just get banned because I use them too often??

Software was reinstalled and backup data restored last weekend, so none of the bells and whistles have been added back yet.  But I'm on vacation and plan to get stuff back in order asap!
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« Reply #29 on: Dec 19, 2010 at 11:38 »

BTW, what happened to all the smiley options?  Or did I just get banned because I use them too often??

Software was reinstalled and backup data restored last weekend, so none of the bells and whistles have been added back yet.  But I'm on vacation and plan to get stuff back in order asap!

Nerding knows no vacation.
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