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Question: What will be the Steelers' W-L total?
5-11 - 0 (0%)
6-10 - 0 (0%)
7-9 - 0 (0%)
8-8 - 1 (3.6%)
9-7 - 1 (3.6%)
10-6 - 14 (50%)
11-5 - 7 (25%)
12-4 - 5 (17.9%)
13-3 - 0 (0%)
Other - 0 (0%)
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Author Topic: Predict the Steelers' 2010 regular season record  (Read 1857 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Sep 07, 2010 at 15:57 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.

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« Reply #1 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 16:03 »

I wanted to click 11-5 but couldn't do it.  Hopefully 10-6 will be enough (with a tie-breaker) to take the division.  Then watch out, the team should be in playoff form by then.  Besides, Petey King has 'em winning the Super Bowl.
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 19:20 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.



Steelers fans -- Here is your 12-4 division-winning 2010 schedule.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Win
@TB - Win
BAL - Lose
CLE - Win
@MIA - Win
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Lose
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Win
CIN - Win
NYJ - Lose
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 19:48 »

11-5. Either wildcard or division winner depending on the tiebreaker (I think the Ravens go 11-5 too.)

2-2 with Dixon, 9-3 with Ben.
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 22:07 »

I really wanted to give 'em a winning record.  I really did, but I just don't see it.  So many questions in key areas and it just ain't that easy to "get by" without a two time Super Bowl QB, even if it's for only 4 games.

Expectations are quite low for this season.  Hope to shit I'm wrong.

Make me eat my words, fellas.

Oh, and just don't lose to the Jets, please.  Thanks.
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« Reply #5 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 22:21 »

C'mon AJ.  We know you like to keep your expectations down, but barring injury the defense alone should get 'em to 8 wins.

11-5 I say. 
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« Reply #6 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 23:05 »

ATL - W
@TEN - L
@TB - W
BAL - W
CLE - W
@MIA - L
@NO - L
@CIN - L
NE - W
OAK - W
@BUF - W
@BAL - L
CIN - W
NYJ - W
CAR - W
@CLE - W

That's 11-5, but looks shaky to me.  According to this, we go 3-1 under Dixon, then after Ben's warmup against Cleveland we lose 3 in a row.  Will Ben have the confidence (and still have the job?) to turn it around against NE and go 7-1 in the second half?  The schedule certainly favors a late run with 5 home games and road games against Buffalo and Cleveland.  But we could be 3-5 in the first half easy, making every game a must win.




 
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« Reply #7 on: Sep 07, 2010 at 23:29 »

Will Ben have the confidence (and still have the job?) to turn it around against NE and go 7-1 in the second half? 
 

I'm not buying the whole "Ben might not be the starter when he gets back" storyline.  Seems to me Tomlin's just hedging his bets against #7 staying behind in Latrobe and hitting some Slippy Rock bars.
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« Reply #8 on: Sep 08, 2010 at 06:25 »

12 4
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« Reply #9 on: Sep 08, 2010 at 15:21 »

Losses in red.

ATL - Steelers without Troy, Aaron, and Ben lose 17-20 in Baltimore.  What will Dixon with Troy and Aaron do against a lesser Falcons team at home?  20-17.
@TEN - Steelers just do not like going to Tennessee.  The 13-10 win seemed like a Herculean struggle, and then everybody else came along and beat the Titans easily.  Just some bad mojo about going there.  13-16.
@TB - Tomlin may have lost the focus of this team during the horror show losses against the lesser lights in 2009, but there's no way we'll be overlooking a bottom-feeder this early.
BAL - Baltimore's secondary is a real Achilles heel, and as noted Dixon almost beat these same guys on the road.  But I think having a few more weeks to break down film on Dixon will allow Balty to get a good handle on how to attack him.  17-24.
BYE
CLE - Not this time.  Not with Ben coming back.  34-10.
@MIA - With Mike Nolan as DC, the Dolphins could have a run like Denver did in 2009, but we should still have more talent on both sides of the ball.  23-10.
@NO - Don't see the Saints repeating, but their passing attack is going to give this secondary flaming shits.  27-37.
@CIN - Cinci is gonna crash and burn, right about here.  Good early season, then it all goes wrong.  The offense is too old.  27-17.
NE - Hate to say it, but Ningland's offense will be good again, and their defense will be bette than the last couple of years.  They need a pass rush, but we need an OL.  34-21.
OAK - Payback.  33-9.
@BUF - Bills have been killed with injuries recently, their OL is worse than ours, and they have no QB.  Other than that, they're in good shape.  27-12.
@BAL - Hate having us getting swept by the Rats, but call it a gut feeling.  Rats will be in a lot of shootouts this season, althoug Steelers scrums are typically lower scoring.  24-27.
CIN - Cinci reverts toward their 8-8 mean.  24-13.
NYJ - Jets are overrated and getting way too much love.  Defense is good, but Sanchez doesn't impress much and will get exposed as a soph.  But  can see Rex dialing up a nasty blitz stew.  9-13.
CAR - Will tghe wheels be coming off Carolina's season?  Fox has been on the watch list for a couple of years, but I think the Panthers remain viable.  We just match up well with them.  23-17.
@CLE - Delhomo throws 6 picks, Mangina gets fired mid-game by Holmgren, who takes over coaching duties on the spot.  43-16.
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« Reply #10 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 09:42 »

C'mon AJ.  We know you like to keep your expectations down, but barring injury the defense alone should get 'em to 8 wins.

11-5 I say. 

I didn't realize Rex Ryan was one of our members.

 B)

Seriously though, 11 wins?  Without #7 for a quarter of the season??

Overly optimistic, I'd say; borderline homeristic.  Still, that's fine.  Nothing wrong with that.

Again, to me the difference boils down to Ben being out.  If he was there from the getgo, I think they likely go into the bye 3-1.  Without him, 1-3 is expected.  Maybe I'm overvaluing him, dunno.

Taking his off the field troubles out of the mix for a second, with the state of the O-line and big question marks at WR, I would've pegged this team as a 9 or 10 win team, at best.  So, chopping it down a game or two because of it feels about right. 

I know that a .500 record (or worse) seems like heresy to Steeler fans (and it should), but that's how the cards fall sometimes.  Remember the year following his accident?  I know it's not exactly a fair comparison and I hate to sound like a broken record, but it's just not that easy to replace a SB QB and keep winning.  Well, maybe if St. Pea Hair was still there to take the reigns...
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« Reply #11 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:03 »

C'mon AJ.  We know you like to keep your expectations down, but barring injury the defense alone should get 'em to 8 wins.

11-5 I say.  

I didn't realize Rex Ryan was one of our members.

 B)

Seriously though, 11 wins?  Without #7 for a quarter of the season??

Overly optimistic, I'd say; borderline homeristic.  Still, that's fine.  Nothing wrong with that.

Again, to me the difference boils down to Ben being out.  If he was there from the getgo, I think they likely go into the bye 3-1.  Without him, 1-3 is expected.  Maybe I'm overvaluing him, dunno.

Taking his off the field troubles out of the mix for a second, with the state of the O-line and big question marks at WR, I would've pegged this team as a 9 or 10 win team, at best.  So, chopping it down a game or two because of it feels about right.  

I know that a .500 record (or worse) seems like heresy to Steeler fans (and it should), but that's how the cards fall sometimes.  Remember the year following his accident?  I know it's not exactly a fair comparison and I hate to sound like a broken record, but it's just not that easy to replace a SB QB and keep winning.  Well, maybe if St. Pea Hair was still there to take the reigns...

The only thing I have in common with Rex Ryan is that neither of us is particularly interested in the weight loss thread.

I think our D will be #1 this year, and I have the fantasy draft to prove it.  I think Mendenhall will be a stone cold stud with or without #7, and I don't see the same question marks at wr that you do.  Wallace and Ward are both excellent, and it's only a matter of time before Sanders supplants ARE, IMO.

How's that for Homericism?
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« Reply #12 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:27 »

I think Mendenhall will be a stone cold stud ...  Wallace and Ward are both excellent, and it's only a matter of time before Sanders supplants ARE, IMO.

How's that for Homericism?

I don't know about "Homericism" but Otis says you nailed the homo eroticism! 
 yeh
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #13 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:30 »

Taking his off the field troubles out of the mix for a second, with the state of the O-line and big question marks at WR, I would've pegged this team as a 9 or 10 win team, at best.  So, chopping it down a game or two because of it feels about right.  

Well, that's part of it, sure.

I'll agree that the WRs are a mystery.  If Wallace can be a consistent threat and Ward stays healthy and Heat is Heat, OK, maybe the mix at WR3-5 (ARE, the rooks) won't have much play: say, Sanders comes in for some splash packages late in the season, after getting acclimated a bit more.

The OL should be no worse than the last couple of years.  Hotel's just an older, wily vet version of Colonic.  But getting Hartwig out of the middle should help improve the C spot, and by osmosis, both Gs.  The weakest spot will be Essex, IMO.  Overall, I expect slight improvements in both run blocking and pass pro, but that might be enough to translate to a 1.5% sack rate drop (~Seattle, Detroit), and about 0.10 adjusted line yards per carry (~Jax).  That would put us ~11th in run blocking and ~20th in pass blocking; Ben figures into that latter, by style, but I don't expect any stat bump for pass pro from DD.

The big oversight here is the reversion toward the mean on defense: no guarantee Pola and Smith can stay healthy all season, and still don't have backups anywhere close to their level of play.  (Although Will Allen is a huge upgrade over Carter, on early results.)  But the team that forgot to show for the 4Q last year, and lost I-don't-wanna-think-about how many close games to suckass teams, will have more fire in their belly to swing those games back to the W side.  

Also have to consider who we play.  

Cinci, IMO, is getting way too much love, as is Balty.  Cinci: Palmer hasn't looked the same, old WRs, but good D and running game; bad team dynamic, tend to come back to earth after big seasons.  Balty: secondary is a fucking mess, no Ed Reed early will hurt them, probably will be in early season shoot-outs, need to get healthy quickly.  Tend to play their best against us. Cleveland: uh, no.

NE and NO will be tough matchups.  Miami and NYJ are OK, but winnable.  

Elsewhere in the AFC: Indy has OL issues, but should be about where they've been.  Houston needs their D to step up, which I'll believe when I see, but their O could rattle Indy.  AFCW is a total shithole.  Leaves Indy, NE, Balty as top level contenders, maybe; NYJ, Miami, Cinci, Houston, SD, and maybe Denver a bit back, maybe; not much else.  

Whose defense is better?
Whose offense?

It comes down to the same subject:  staying healthy.  Teams that go on a good run are, and no way to predict that.  
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« Reply #14 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 13:01 »

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-season-preview-whitlock-brings-the-truths

Interesting take on the Steelers this season.

1. My Super Bowl picks are the Vikings and the Steelers.

I can't bring myself to pick the Packers. I'm still anti-Ted Thompson. I see the Vikings sneaking in as a 9-7 wildcard and Favre delivering in the playoffs after a so-so regular season.

The Steelers won't dominate the AFC, either. They'll sneak into the playoffs at 10-6. Big Ben is going to shake off the rust and put together a great playoff run.

Big Ben gets his third Super Bowl ring and we start to wonder where he falls among the greatest QBs of all-time. Ahead of Brady and Peyton Manning?


This goes along with Peter King's predictions, meaning that the fattest men in sports picked us to win it all.  I don't have a lot of confidence in the prediction abilities of either...just sayin'.

We may be the only team whose Super Bowl hopes rest with a defensive tackle and a safety.
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« Reply #15 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 17:02 »

I agree with 10-6.

If we're not, we'll be 9-7...maybe 11-5. Somewhere in that 9-to-11 win window, I think.

The way I see it we're on a three year cycle that goes shit, good/okay, Superbowl Champs. We're currently due for a good/okay season.

2003-shit
2004-good/okay but not the best
2005-superbowl
2006-shit
2007-good/okay but not the best
2008-superbowl
2009-shit
2010-...
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« Reply #16 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 19:18 »

I think Bubby's nailed it.  Steelers in '11.

10-6 seems to be the prevailing wisdom.
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« Reply #17 on: Sep 10, 2010 at 14:35 »

After taking a look at the schedule, I might up it to 11-5.  We never play well at TEN and won't do it this year with DD as QB.  Somehow, I think he'll pull off the massive upset here in PGH.

I think we'll split with Balty.  I have us losing there, winning here, but it could go the other way. 

Think we'll split with Cincy as well.  For some reason, I'm thinking we'll lay an egg against them at home but take care of business there.  The Jets have never won a game here, and I think the Rex Ryan schtick will be wearing off by then.  I see us blowing a game in MIA, losing to NO and ending up 4-3 before we go on a pretty serious run towards the playoffs.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Lose
@TB - Win
BAL - Win
CLE - Win
@MIA - Lose
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Win
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Lose
CIN - Lose
NYJ - Win
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win
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« Reply #18 on: Sep 10, 2010 at 18:47 »

Yeah Preach, I have us swept by Balty and sweeping Cinci, but hells, it could go split and split.  Good point on the Jets, but we always lose at least one game we shouldn't, and I've penciled in the Jets for that one this year.  As long as we're healthy heading into the postseason, we have a shot, again.
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« Reply #19 on: Sep 27, 2010 at 07:22 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.



Steelers fans -- Here is your 12-4 division-winning 2010 schedule.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Win
@TB - Win
BAL - Lose
CLE - Win
@MIA - Win
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Lose
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Win
CIN - Win
NYJ - Lose
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win


So far I'm 100%.

Hope I'm wrong about next week!
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« Reply #20 on: Sep 27, 2010 at 08:25 »

Nice koehla! I would have been pretty happy being 2-2 when Ben comes back. 3-1 or even 4-0 is just icing on the cake. I think we sweep Cincy, and maybe lose to NE. BUt 12-4 the rest of your prediction look pretty sound.
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« Reply #21 on: Sep 27, 2010 at 09:35 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.



Steelers fans -- Here is your 12-4 division-winning 2010 schedule.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Win
@TB - Win
BAL - Lose
CLE - Win
@MIA - Win
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Lose
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Win
CIN - Win
NYJ - Lose
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win


So far I'm 100%.



Not that there's anything wrong with that.

BTW, this crow is out-fucking-standing.
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« Reply #22 on: Sep 28, 2010 at 12:03 »

I guessed 10-6 when this was first posted but looking at our schedule and how the D is playing coupled with Ben coming back there is no team on our schedule that can beat us.  Not going to change to 16-0 but my point is that if/when we lose it will be because we did something stupid.  Turn the ball over to many times, special teams, 17 penalties, something like that.  Seriously who is playing better ball then us right now?  And who has more upside on offense in two weeks then us?  Batch had no sacks last week, ZERO.  And that was with a back up guard.  Anybody know when that happened last?  NO, Cin, Balt and NE will be tough games, those were the games i thought we would lose, but there is no reason we don't beat them.  This week will be a good test but the ratbirds are not playing that great.  I am going to guess our first lost game may not come until the NO game.
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« Reply #23 on: Sep 28, 2010 at 12:26 »

I guessed 10-6 when this was first posted but looking at our schedule and how the D is playing coupled with Ben coming back there is no team on our schedule that can beat us.  Not going to change to 16-0 but my point is that if/when we lose it will be because we did something stupid.  Turn the ball over to many times, special teams, 17 penalties, something like that.  Seriously who is playing better ball then us right now?  And who has more upside on offense in two weeks then us?  Batch had no sacks last week, ZERO.  And that was with a back up guard.  Anybody know when that happened last?  NO, Cin, Balt and NE will be tough games, those were the games i thought we would lose, but there is no reason we don't beat them.  This week will be a good test but the ratbirds are not playing that great.  I am going to guess our first lost game may not come until the NO game.

I'm still going to guess that our first loss comes this week against Baltimore. They still have a better defense than any that we've played already (though they have noone that can hang with Mr. Wallace) and Boldin has really made their offense better. The Steelers defense could play as well as they have been and shut them down allowing us to win a close low-scoring game, but I just see the defense slowing down at some point. They can't keep playing like this...can they? Plus we're always one injury away from just having a good defense rather than a legendary one.
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« Reply #24 on: Sep 28, 2010 at 13:43 »

Not to mention that 16 games is a long season even though it doesn't always feel like it.  Teams playing out of their mind in Week 4 often look totally different in Week 13.  Look at the Tits last year.

All of this media fluffery is making me nervous.  Don't want the boys peaking too early.  Save the best stuff for January.
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« Reply #25 on: Sep 28, 2010 at 14:17 »

I am not sure we are playing "out of our mind" at this point.  But I do know that we can't be at our very best without Ben.  Although he will help with the passing game his big contribution will be the run game.  Teams will not be able to stack the box when he is in there.

This week is going to be a tough one.  Balty will stack the box and bet that last week was fantasy land for Batch.  The good news is the ratbirds defensive backs can be beat.  I am going to say that H. Miller has a very large game this week, I hope.

There are a few guys that will continue to get better as the season rolls on.  But I am hoping that Mendy starts to break out larger than he has.  He has done well so far but I still see this guy as having a lot more to deliver.  With our QB situation everyone is simply teeing off on him.  My prediction is he runs for 200 against the stains.  Again more due to Ben being back then anything else.
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« Reply #26 on: Nov 01, 2010 at 06:28 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.



Steelers fans -- Here is your 12-4 division-winning 2010 schedule.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Win
@TB - Win
BAL - Lose
CLE - Win
@MIA - Win
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Lose
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Win
CIN - Win
NYJ - Lose
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win


So I got the first 7 games right.  If the Steelers lose to the Bungles next week I'm thinking of declaring myself a prophet and starting a new religion. Any takers?  By the way, in my new religion pretty much anything goes and for communion we drink Olde Frothingslosh.
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« Reply #27 on: Nov 01, 2010 at 09:25 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.



Steelers fans -- Here is your 12-4 division-winning 2010 schedule.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Win
@TB - Win
BAL - Lose
CLE - Win
@MIA - Win
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Lose
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Win
CIN - Win
NYJ - Lose
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win


So I got the first 7 games right.  If the Steelers lose to the Bungles next week I'm thinking of declaring myself a prophet and starting a new religion. Any takers?  By the way, in my new religion pretty much anything goes and for communion we drink Olde Frothingslosh.

Pretty damned impressive.  The way things are going you might get it right the rest of the way, but the next two could be where it unravels as it looks more and more like Cincy were fakers last season and that the Patsies have found their mojo jojo.
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« Reply #28 on: Nov 01, 2010 at 10:13 »

I was 6 for 7 (missed on the Tenn win).  Had us losing the rest of the way to NE, @ Bal, and NYJ. 

I think 6/7 allows me to declare my own religion with NyQuiltinis the communion drink.

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