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Poll
Question: What will be the Steelers' W-L total?
5-11 - 0 (0%)
6-10 - 0 (0%)
7-9 - 0 (0%)
8-8 - 1 (3.6%)
9-7 - 1 (3.6%)
10-6 - 14 (50%)
11-5 - 7 (25%)
12-4 - 5 (17.9%)
13-3 - 0 (0%)
Other - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 0

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Author Topic: Predict the Steelers' 2010 regular season record  (Read 1972 times)
aj_law
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« Reply #10 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 09:42 »

C'mon AJ.  We know you like to keep your expectations down, but barring injury the defense alone should get 'em to 8 wins.

11-5 I say. 

I didn't realize Rex Ryan was one of our members.

 B)

Seriously though, 11 wins?  Without #7 for a quarter of the season??

Overly optimistic, I'd say; borderline homeristic.  Still, that's fine.  Nothing wrong with that.

Again, to me the difference boils down to Ben being out.  If he was there from the getgo, I think they likely go into the bye 3-1.  Without him, 1-3 is expected.  Maybe I'm overvaluing him, dunno.

Taking his off the field troubles out of the mix for a second, with the state of the O-line and big question marks at WR, I would've pegged this team as a 9 or 10 win team, at best.  So, chopping it down a game or two because of it feels about right. 

I know that a .500 record (or worse) seems like heresy to Steeler fans (and it should), but that's how the cards fall sometimes.  Remember the year following his accident?  I know it's not exactly a fair comparison and I hate to sound like a broken record, but it's just not that easy to replace a SB QB and keep winning.  Well, maybe if St. Pea Hair was still there to take the reigns...
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pensodyssey
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« Reply #11 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:03 »

C'mon AJ.  We know you like to keep your expectations down, but barring injury the defense alone should get 'em to 8 wins.

11-5 I say.  

I didn't realize Rex Ryan was one of our members.

 B)

Seriously though, 11 wins?  Without #7 for a quarter of the season??

Overly optimistic, I'd say; borderline homeristic.  Still, that's fine.  Nothing wrong with that.

Again, to me the difference boils down to Ben being out.  If he was there from the getgo, I think they likely go into the bye 3-1.  Without him, 1-3 is expected.  Maybe I'm overvaluing him, dunno.

Taking his off the field troubles out of the mix for a second, with the state of the O-line and big question marks at WR, I would've pegged this team as a 9 or 10 win team, at best.  So, chopping it down a game or two because of it feels about right.  

I know that a .500 record (or worse) seems like heresy to Steeler fans (and it should), but that's how the cards fall sometimes.  Remember the year following his accident?  I know it's not exactly a fair comparison and I hate to sound like a broken record, but it's just not that easy to replace a SB QB and keep winning.  Well, maybe if St. Pea Hair was still there to take the reigns...

The only thing I have in common with Rex Ryan is that neither of us is particularly interested in the weight loss thread.

I think our D will be #1 this year, and I have the fantasy draft to prove it.  I think Mendenhall will be a stone cold stud with or without #7, and I don't see the same question marks at wr that you do.  Wallace and Ward are both excellent, and it's only a matter of time before Sanders supplants ARE, IMO.

How's that for Homericism?
« Last Edit: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:15 by pensodyssey » Logged

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jonzr
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« Reply #12 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:27 »

I think Mendenhall will be a stone cold stud ...  Wallace and Ward are both excellent, and it's only a matter of time before Sanders supplants ARE, IMO.

How's that for Homericism?

I don't know about "Homericism" but Otis says you nailed the homo eroticism! 
 yeh
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #13 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:30 »

Taking his off the field troubles out of the mix for a second, with the state of the O-line and big question marks at WR, I would've pegged this team as a 9 or 10 win team, at best.  So, chopping it down a game or two because of it feels about right.  

Well, that's part of it, sure.

I'll agree that the WRs are a mystery.  If Wallace can be a consistent threat and Ward stays healthy and Heat is Heat, OK, maybe the mix at WR3-5 (ARE, the rooks) won't have much play: say, Sanders comes in for some splash packages late in the season, after getting acclimated a bit more.

The OL should be no worse than the last couple of years.  Hotel's just an older, wily vet version of Colonic.  But getting Hartwig out of the middle should help improve the C spot, and by osmosis, both Gs.  The weakest spot will be Essex, IMO.  Overall, I expect slight improvements in both run blocking and pass pro, but that might be enough to translate to a 1.5% sack rate drop (~Seattle, Detroit), and about 0.10 adjusted line yards per carry (~Jax).  That would put us ~11th in run blocking and ~20th in pass blocking; Ben figures into that latter, by style, but I don't expect any stat bump for pass pro from DD.

The big oversight here is the reversion toward the mean on defense: no guarantee Pola and Smith can stay healthy all season, and still don't have backups anywhere close to their level of play.  (Although Will Allen is a huge upgrade over Carter, on early results.)  But the team that forgot to show for the 4Q last year, and lost I-don't-wanna-think-about how many close games to suckass teams, will have more fire in their belly to swing those games back to the W side.  

Also have to consider who we play.  

Cinci, IMO, is getting way too much love, as is Balty.  Cinci: Palmer hasn't looked the same, old WRs, but good D and running game; bad team dynamic, tend to come back to earth after big seasons.  Balty: secondary is a fucking mess, no Ed Reed early will hurt them, probably will be in early season shoot-outs, need to get healthy quickly.  Tend to play their best against us. Cleveland: uh, no.

NE and NO will be tough matchups.  Miami and NYJ are OK, but winnable.  

Elsewhere in the AFC: Indy has OL issues, but should be about where they've been.  Houston needs their D to step up, which I'll believe when I see, but their O could rattle Indy.  AFCW is a total shithole.  Leaves Indy, NE, Balty as top level contenders, maybe; NYJ, Miami, Cinci, Houston, SD, and maybe Denver a bit back, maybe; not much else.  

Whose defense is better?
Whose offense?

It comes down to the same subject:  staying healthy.  Teams that go on a good run are, and no way to predict that.  
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #14 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 13:01 »

http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/nfl-season-preview-whitlock-brings-the-truths

Interesting take on the Steelers this season.

1. My Super Bowl picks are the Vikings and the Steelers.

I can't bring myself to pick the Packers. I'm still anti-Ted Thompson. I see the Vikings sneaking in as a 9-7 wildcard and Favre delivering in the playoffs after a so-so regular season.

The Steelers won't dominate the AFC, either. They'll sneak into the playoffs at 10-6. Big Ben is going to shake off the rust and put together a great playoff run.

Big Ben gets his third Super Bowl ring and we start to wonder where he falls among the greatest QBs of all-time. Ahead of Brady and Peyton Manning?


This goes along with Peter King's predictions, meaning that the fattest men in sports picked us to win it all.  I don't have a lot of confidence in the prediction abilities of either...just sayin'.

We may be the only team whose Super Bowl hopes rest with a defensive tackle and a safety.
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Bubby
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« Reply #15 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 17:02 »

I agree with 10-6.

If we're not, we'll be 9-7...maybe 11-5. Somewhere in that 9-to-11 win window, I think.

The way I see it we're on a three year cycle that goes shit, good/okay, Superbowl Champs. We're currently due for a good/okay season.

2003-shit
2004-good/okay but not the best
2005-superbowl
2006-shit
2007-good/okay but not the best
2008-superbowl
2009-shit
2010-...
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #16 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 19:18 »

I think Bubby's nailed it.  Steelers in '11.

10-6 seems to be the prevailing wisdom.
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #17 on: Sep 10, 2010 at 14:35 »

After taking a look at the schedule, I might up it to 11-5.  We never play well at TEN and won't do it this year with DD as QB.  Somehow, I think he'll pull off the massive upset here in PGH.

I think we'll split with Balty.  I have us losing there, winning here, but it could go the other way. 

Think we'll split with Cincy as well.  For some reason, I'm thinking we'll lay an egg against them at home but take care of business there.  The Jets have never won a game here, and I think the Rex Ryan schtick will be wearing off by then.  I see us blowing a game in MIA, losing to NO and ending up 4-3 before we go on a pretty serious run towards the playoffs.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Lose
@TB - Win
BAL - Win
CLE - Win
@MIA - Lose
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Win
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Lose
CIN - Lose
NYJ - Win
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #18 on: Sep 10, 2010 at 18:47 »

Yeah Preach, I have us swept by Balty and sweeping Cinci, but hells, it could go split and split.  Good point on the Jets, but we always lose at least one game we shouldn't, and I've penciled in the Jets for that one this year.  As long as we're healthy heading into the postseason, we have a shot, again.
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koehla
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« Reply #19 on: Sep 27, 2010 at 07:22 »

If you want, you can break down game-by-game and throw in post-season predictions, if you want.



Steelers fans -- Here is your 12-4 division-winning 2010 schedule.

ATL - Win
@TEN - Win
@TB - Win
BAL - Lose
CLE - Win
@MIA - Win
@NO - Lose
@CIN - Lose
NE - Win
OAK - Win
@BUF - Win
@BAL - Win
CIN - Win
NYJ - Lose
CAR - Win
@CLE - Win


So far I'm 100%.

Hope I'm wrong about next week!
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