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Author Topic: Football Outsiders DVOA/Wins projections for 2010  (Read 468 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Sep 09, 2010 at 08:59 »

I like FO, but don't always agree with what their numbers present.  A better snapshot of offensive and defensive strength than simple yardage metrics, but they rank the top teams as Balty, Pitt, NE, Indy, and Atlanta, but some very interesting stats when you dig deeper.

They don't have our defense returning from 2009's dip all the way back, but do have us top 10.  But our offense is ranked 2nd behind Indy?  Project us to 11 wins. 

KC wins their division?  Washington?

Playoff teams:  AFC - Balty, Indy, NE, KC, Pitt, Mia (seeded in that order); NFC - Atl, GB, Wash, Ari, Chi, and Philly?

Some interesting stuff, to be sure. 
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #1 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 09:32 »

Another computer model, the Sagarin ratings.  Top 5: Indy, NE, SD, NO, Philly. 

Biggest differences?

FO ranks these teams 10 or more spots higher than Sagarin:  Atlanta (5 vs. 15), Chicago (8 vs. 20), Washington (12 vs. 25), KC (16 vs. 30).

Sagarin ranks these teams 10 or more spots higher than FO:  SD (3 vs. 16), Houston (16 vs. 27).

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jonzr
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:21 »

Maybe I'll average the Sagarin and the FO ratings and divide by the Peter King guesses and publish the Jonzr Index of the NFL.
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 10:24 »

KC wins their division?  Washington?

Heard (read?) somewhere that in the last 7 years, a team has gone from basement to division winner the following year.  Granted, most of that occurred in the NFC South, but it's an interesting stat nonetheless.  And, if you're gonna pick a team or two to do it, it's gotta be either Washington or KC (outside chance, I guess for Jax) because there's no fuckin' way in hell anybody else is doing it.

My guess is that streak ends this year.
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pensodyssey
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 15:06 »

KC wins their division?  Washington?

Heard (read?) somewhere that in the last 7 years, a team has gone from basement to division winner the following year.  Granted, most of that occurred in the NFC South, but it's an interesting stat nonetheless.  And, if you're gonna pick a team or two to do it, it's gotta be either Washington or KC (outside chance, I guess for Jax) because there's no fuckin' way in hell anybody else is doing it.

My guess is that streak ends this year.

LISSEN AJ MAW OR WHATEVR THE RAMBS ARE GOIN FORETINE AND TWO!!!!!!!!!!11 SAMB REDFORD TO TORY HOLD!!!!!!!!!!11
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #5 on: Sep 09, 2010 at 15:23 »

KC wins their division?  Washington?

Heard (read?) somewhere that in the last 7 years, a team has gone from basement to division winner the following year.  Granted, most of that occurred in the NFC South, but it's an interesting stat nonetheless.  And, if you're gonna pick a team or two to do it, it's gotta be either Washington or KC (outside chance, I guess for Jax) because there's no fuckin' way in hell anybody else is doing it.

My guess is that streak ends this year.

LISSEN AJ MAW OR WHATEVR THE RAMBS ARE GOIN FORETINE AND TWO!!!!!!!!!!11 SAMB REDFORD TO TORY HOLD!!!!!!!!!!11

ABSLUTLY CRRECT!!!!!!  WHO ELST IN THERE DIVSON IS GONNA BE ANY GOOD?  SADDLE?  UMMM, HASSELBANK IS DONE, PETE CAROL HAS TO GIVE BACK HIS HINESMAN, AND SHAUN ALEXANDER MAY RETIRE.  ARIZIONA?  KNURT WANNER HAS FLOWN THE KOOP KIDS, AND DENNY GREEN GOT RID OF ANTON BOLDWICH.  OKLAND?!?  UH, DOUBTFUL. 

MEANWILE DON'T FORGET THAT ST. LOOEY HAS SAMUEL L. JACKSON AT RUNNING BACK, NOW HE GOT A REAL QB WITH SAM RAMBIS.  THAT COACH STEVE SPHAGNUMOLO DONE A GOOD JOB WITH THE GAINTS DEFFENSE, BUT I JUST READ THE ONE LIMEBACKER HAS A CASE OF LAWRINITIS OR SOMETHING, I HAVE TO FIND OUT WHAT THAT IS.

FORETEN AND TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, NO SIREE, NOT AT ALL...  MAYBE MORE LIKE 13-4 OR 12-5 BUT WHO KNOWS, WHO KNOWS...

IN THE WORDS OF NORM EDWARDS: WE PLAY... TO WIN... WE PLAY THE GAME... TO WIN... WE PLAY THE GAME... OR SOMETHING, LOLLAR.
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