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Author Topic: Remaining schedule  (Read 1222 times)
TucsonSteeler
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« Reply #10 on: Nov 18, 2010 at 17:01 »

Opposing QBs have had success running the same type of dink and dunk passes on the Steelers for TWO YEARS now, WTF. 

Two years?  Only two?  You sure?  Somewhere, Duhwayne Washington and Charred Scott are smiling.

Thanks for reminding me.  I was trying to stay somewhat optimistic  :rolleyes:
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P4P
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« Reply #11 on: Nov 18, 2010 at 17:36 »

  Our punter cannot stick the ball inside the 10 to save his life.


Cant blame him for that.  Most times he is punting from within our own 20.
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« Reply #12 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 08:03 »


11.28 @ Buffalo - Buffalo has been pretty much a pass happy team ever since Fitzpatrick took over (last game excepted) and there is little doubt that we have trouble stopping the pass (as New England proved). If Fitzpatrick is hot and Lee Mays has no trouble with our CBs (why would he), then I could see them winning this game. It's more of a matchup problem rather than a question of who is the better team. Also, they do not have a bad passing defense (7th in the league) even though they are dead last in stopping the run. I can see us shutting down Mendenhall early and throwing the ball 50 times in this game. It could easily be dropped even though it shouldn't under any circumstances.


That part stood out to me.  Is there any question how Arians will attack this team?  How about 50 attempts from Big Ben?
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« Reply #13 on: Nov 21, 2010 at 10:10 »

I know people are a bit negative on the squad right now, but how can you say there are no layups on the schedule?  Buffalo, Cincy and Carolina are not going to beat us.

Those other games, however, will not be easy (although some of them should be).
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« Reply #14 on: Nov 22, 2010 at 13:54 »

I know people are a bit negative on the squad right now, but how can you say there are no layups on the schedule?  Buffalo, Cincy and Carolina are not going to beat us.

Those other games, however, will not be easy (although some of them should be).

Again, Carolina will be.  Arguably, Cincy (always tough to sweep the divisionals).

Dunno what the spread is gonna be this coming week against the Bills, but without even knowing it, I'll take the Bills plus the points.  Pretty confident it's gonna be a close one.
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« Reply #15 on: Nov 22, 2010 at 14:48 »

Yeah I'm not liking the matchup with Buffalo for some reason. They've been throwing the ball very well and it just seems like one of those games where some funky shit is going to happen. Add in the fact that we got the Ravens the week after and it has trap game written all over it.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #16 on: Nov 22, 2010 at 15:05 »

Picking up from the gameday thread discussion of LeBeau vs. the spread/dinky-dunky offenses, if you look at the stats for teams on our schedule, something interesting emerges.

At this point, all our opponents have 10 games played.  If you accept an arbitrary baseline for receiving stats of minimum 300+ yards OR 20+ receptions (about 2 catches for 30 yards average per game), I think you can say anything below that isn't much worth noting.  But the Steelers tend to get burned by teams with great receiving depth, including very active RB and TEs.  Guess which two teams stand out?

Patriots have 6 such players, Saints have 7.  Those are the teams that can really just throw guys out on the field and push the matchup issues to the max.  All the rest of the teams we have played or will play have 5 or fewer such players on their rosters.

Here's another look at it, using point differentials.

Against teams with (7) receivers of note: Steelers are -10.  (Saints)
Against teams with (6) receivers of note: Steelers are -13.  (Patriots)

Against teams with (5) receivers of note: Steelers are +1.  (Dolphins)
Against teams with (4) receivers of note: Steelers are +7.  That's +3.67 without Ben, and +12 with him.  (Falcons, Ravens, Bengals, Browns, Titans)
Against teams with (3) receivers of note: Steelers are +28.5.  That's +25 without Ben, and +32 with him.  (Bucs, Raiders)

Remaining schedule, viewed solely through this lens:

@Buffalo.  Bills have 4, which should mean roll.
@Baltimore.  Ravens have 4; they won by 3 over the Ben-less Steelers only in the last minutes.  Ravens usually play us close, but they won't win it by passing us to death in the rematch.
Cincinnati.  Bengals have 4, and while they generally pile up garbage stats, the stunning loss to the Bills tells me they've packed it in.  Could be a huge blowout.
NY Jets.  Jets have 5, and 5 is just about a parity number.  Anything over 5, we're in trouble; the otherwise so-so Fins had 5 and took us to a 23-22 squeaker.  You can expect the Jets to be a damn close game, but you knew that already.
Carolina.  Oddly, the Panthers have 5, which would normally be a flag -- don't over-bet the Steelers.  Hard to like the Panthers coming to Heinz, with so many QB issues.  But if Claussen is back and Fox is still at the helm, don't be surprised if they try to exploit matchups and make it closer than we'd hope for.  As in, only losing by a TD?
@Cleveland.  Browns have 4.  Should be a win, unless we're sitting starters.

So the Ravens and Jets games look like the marquee matchups.  11-5 at worst.

In the playoffs, you'll have the Patriots (6), Jets (5); probably the Ravens (4) and Colts (5), although the Jags (4) have a record equal to Indy right now; and someone has to win the West, KC (3) or SD (5) being most likely.

Off that, playoff matchups being completely unfavorable would include only NE.  We would hope someone else draws them early and knocks them off by exploiting their lack of D.

Matchups we'd expect to be closer would include NY Jets, Ravens, Colts, and Chargers.  I could see any of those teams being close to a tossup except the Chargers, whom we own.

The Jags and Chiefs would likely get beat down, the Chiefs badly.  
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Preacherman0
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« Reply #17 on: Nov 22, 2010 at 21:27 »

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Off that, playoff matchups being completely unfavorable would include only NE.  We would hope someone else draws them early and knocks them off by exploiting their lack of D.


I'd feel better if I thought WE could exploit their lack of D.
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« Reply #18 on: Nov 22, 2010 at 21:52 »

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Carolina.  Oddly, the Panthers have 5, which would normally be a flag -- don't over-bet the Steelers.

I think that's just a function of their overall hideousness.  They're behind early and often, so throw a lot more.  Even if you're only completing 50% of 35-40 passes, that's 18-20 receptions a game.  SOMEBODY's gotta be catching them.

Panthers averaging what, 11.7 points a game?  Going against the #3 scoring defense at home?  Call me crazy, but I'm not losing much sleep on this one.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #19 on: Nov 23, 2010 at 06:50 »

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Carolina.  Oddly, the Panthers have 5, which would normally be a flag -- don't over-bet the Steelers.

I think that's just a function of their overall hideousness.  They're behind early and often, so throw a lot more.  Even if you're only completing 50% of 35-40 passes, that's 18-20 receptions a game.  SOMEBODY's gotta be catching them.

Panthers averaging what, 11.7 points a game?  Going against the #3 scoring defense at home?  Call me crazy, but I'm not losing much sleep on this one.

I agree.  It's a stat flag, not one I think anyone would really take seriously. 
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