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Author Topic: Lookin' for Survivor Pool input  (Read 941 times)
aj_law
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« on: Nov 18, 2010 at 15:07 »

Alright, here's the sitch.  

Still in two Survivor Pools; one was pretty huge (2500+) with the other being moderately (50 or so) sized.  We're making the final turn to the home stretch here so I thought I'd try to get some thoughts on best possible plays for the upcoming weeks.  Pretty sure I have my picks laid out, I'm just curious for some objective opinions.

Large Pool:  OK, we're down to 211 in this one.  Here's the kicker though.  If we don't get below 200 this week, we'll have to pick two teams in Week 12.  If it's not below 100 after that, we'll have to pick two teams in Week 13.  And, so on.  If we lose a big chunk, we'll probably hit the magic numbers and only have to make one pick.  I'm just going to proceed assuming I have to make two picks.  This week, I've got three plays...Redskins @ Titans; Lions @ Cowboys; Broncos @ Chargers.

Which?

Smaller Pool:  Basically, same position as the large pool as the picks have kinda mirrored each other.  Think I may have deviated once or twice.  No entry limitations in this one tho.  Will only have to pick one every week.  Again, Redskins @ Titans; Lions @ Cowboys; Broncos @ Chargers.

Which?

I can provide a list of all teams used, if anyone wants...
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #1 on: Nov 18, 2010 at 15:44 »

I'd stay away from Lions-Cowboys.  One week and everything is hunky-dory?  Uhhh, no.  Lions, even without Stafford, have been in every game.  I can see the Cowboys getting all cocky and overlooking the Lions, who have some players who can get to the QB (Suh), and score points (Megatron).  You're asking me to believe Jon Kitna can play mistake-free ball for four quarters, and I'm just not buying.

I'd like to say Titans, especially if Moss does get his shit going, but Skins have churned out some grunter wins this year, and both teams are coming off losses.  The fact that the Titans have two losses, even if both on the road, is a caution.  They should win at home, but if this game is close -- and I think it will be -- I can see Skins upsetting.

My pick's the Chargers.  They're getting back Malcolm Floyd and Legs Nanoo, and they've won at home by an average score of 33-18.  Broncos were off the bye last week, at home, against a KC team that looked like it would fold down the stretch.  I don't buy the Broncos, not at all.  Orton's putting up good numbers, and that's it.  Chargers know they need to do their thing, winning late, and they do here. 

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kluisi61
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« Reply #2 on: Nov 18, 2010 at 15:49 »

Alright, here's the sitch.  

Still in two Survivor Pools; one was pretty huge (2500+) with the other being moderately (50 or so) sized.  We're making the final turn to the home stretch here so I thought I'd try to get some thoughts on best possible plays for the upcoming weeks.  Pretty sure I have my picks laid out, I'm just curious for some objective opinions.

Large Pool:  OK, we're down to 211 in this one.  Here's the kicker though.  If we don't get below 200 this week, we'll have to pick two teams in Week 12.  If it's not below 100 after that, we'll have to pick two teams in Week 13.  And, so on.  If we lose a big chunk, we'll probably hit the magic numbers and only have to make one pick.  I'm just going to proceed assuming I have to make two picks.  This week, I've got three plays...Redskins @ Titans; Lions @ Cowboys; Broncos @ Chargers.

Which?

Smaller Pool:  Basically, same position as the large pool as the picks have kinda mirrored each other.  Think I may have deviated once or twice.  No entry limitations in this one tho.  Will only have to pick one every week.  Again, Redskins @ Titans; Lions @ Cowboys; Broncos @ Chargers.

Which?

I can provide a list of all teams used, if anyone wants...


Hmmm...one game does not make me trust the Cowboys just yet and Detroit can score like crazy when it's all working. I would wait and see how the new coach plays out and think about taking them in week 15 or 16 against Washington or Arizona if they continue to play well. The Chargers and Broncos could be a shootout, but I do like SD to win it. Just not sure my heart could take it if it goes back and forth and ends up like 45-43. I think I'd go with the Titans. The Redskins actually looked dead against the Eagles and their defense is awful in switching to a 3-4 without the personnel to play the defense. Plus Young may carve them up with his arm and his feet just like Vick did.
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aj_law
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« Reply #3 on: Nov 18, 2010 at 18:51 »

*sigh*

Fuck.

Cowboys were my first choice as I don't really like any of their remaining matchups.  Cards will be on the road and the Skins is an intradivisional matchup.

ajapofijpihfashgpausi dghaspdfhjajg hewofj[aihfasoidja......TANK U SO MUSH>>>....NEXT!!!!!!!111111
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« Reply #4 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 01:35 »

Not so sure I like the Titans.  Skins showed signs of life last week.  Signs.  I think they might come out with something to prove.  Eeeeeeek.

Im putting my money on whoever has the better pass defense between Denver and San Diego.   Wink

And I think the Boys are back.  Too little too late, but even with Kitna Id say Boys over Lions. 
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« Reply #5 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 07:19 »

Put on your Chuck Muncie glasses and take the Chargers.
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« Reply #6 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 09:15 »

The Lions haven't won a road game in over 3 yrs but the Boys haven't won at home this season.  And you have both teams using their backup QBs.  But the previous two items are only a distraction.  I'd go with the Cowboys due to their recent mojo injection via the naming of Red Ball at head coach.  Or b/c of the addition by subtraction of the Michelin Man.  Or b/c the Lions have perennially sucked and the Boys have underachieved this season.  Take your pick.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #7 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 09:54 »

Give us the list of teams used.  Maybe a longer view would help.
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aj_law
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« Reply #8 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 11:28 »

TEAMS USED

Large Pool:  Buccaneers, Chiefs, Colts, Giants, Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Saints, Steelers and Vikings.

Small Pool:  Buccaneers, Chiefs, Falcons, Giants, Jets, Packers, Patriots, Ravens, Saints and Steelers.

Really, it comes down to a coin flip for me between the Cowboys and Titans.  Trying to look ahead, there aren't other great matchups for those teams.  

For Dallas, I'm lookin' at Washington @ Dallas (intradivisional games are always chippy) or Dallas @ Arizona on Christmas.  The latter is really the better of those two.  So, it's either the Christmas game or this week against the Lions.

For Tennessee, the only other legit option that I'd feel comfortable picking is Jacksonville @ Tennessee in a couple weeks.  That's it.  I guess I could consider one of their games against the Texans if pressed, but they scare me more than the Jags.  I think a non-Conference game against the Redskins @ home following an unspectacular, road loss performance last week against the Fins is definitely a better matchup.  Getting VY back won't hurt either.

I wish I had the foresight (and the balls) to take Chicago as the pick last night.  Probably the best matchup they'll have for the remainder and they were going against a #3 QB in Thigpen.  Bold enough to take them @ (+2.5), but not enough to put my Survivor life in them.  Stoopit.

Again, it's a toss up between the Tits and Cowgirls.  Oh, and one other note, no doubt that a bunch of people are going to take the Cowboys.  Anybody that hasn't taken 'em yet will undoubtedly jump on that pick this week.  I think in my ESPN league, they noted something like 30% of entrants already selected were the Cowboys.
« Last Edit: Nov 19, 2010 at 11:35 by aj_law » Logged

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« Reply #9 on: Nov 19, 2010 at 12:16 »

Panthers are a fucking mess.

Brian St. Pierre?  For realz?  Fox does not look long for that job.  If there was one team I'd pick against every game this season, it'd be these fools.

This week they get the Ravens, but week 12 at Cleveland, week 13 at Seattle, those are virtual slam dunks, and slam dunks with not necessarily the best teams out there.

I'll stick with the Chargers as my favorite of the three listed, because I think Denver is bullshit, they're on the road, and the Chargers have good motivation (division standings) and HFA differential.  After that, I'd go Tits over Skins based on Skins also being on the road and out of conference, and the Tits needing to get tracked after two losses.  I'd really avoid the Cowboys, because that's a feast or famine, anything can happen, Lions can score in bunches, Cowboys can come out and look like the did against the Giants or how they did the 2 games before that, losing to Jax and GB 80-24.
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