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Author Topic: Finny's week 13 power rankings, week 14 picks  (Read 759 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Dec 09, 2010 at 15:52 »


1. NE (10-2), (last week: 1, calculated power score: 100, calculated rank: 1).

FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 1 (70.7%).  Projected Wins: 12.6.  Overall Playoff Odds: 99.8%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 21.5% (1).<2. ATL (10-2), (last week: 2, calculated power score: 64, calculated rank: 6). 

FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 1 (79.3%).  Projected Wins: 12.8.  Overall Playoff Odds: 99.8%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 15.9% (3).


The NFC frontrunner Falcons have some dings to Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Snelling, but have a bye week this week (at Carolina).  Appear to be in great shape to dictate the NFC playoffs come through Atlanta, where the Falcons are 6-0 this season.

3. PIT (9-3), (last week: 7, calculated power score: 87, calculated rank: 2). 

FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 2 (67.9%).  Projected Wins: 12.0. Overall Playoff Odds: 998%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 20.3% (2).<4. PHI (8-4), (last week: 5, calculated power score: 71, calculated rank: 4).
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 3 (37.1%).  Projected Wins: 10.8.  Overall Playoff Odds: 74.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 16.3% (4).<5. BAL (8-4), (last week: 4, calculated power score: 67, calculated rank: 5).
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 6 (57.7%).  Projected Wins: 10.4. Overall Playoff Odds: 87.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 10.5% (6).


Ravens had two big pass plays against Steelers, and the rest of their passing game was a total of 98 yards.  Ravens have a better OL than the Steelers, but likewise can have trouble with putting together scoring.  If current playoff trends hold, Ravens will be a dangerous wild card draw.

6.  GB (8-4), (last week: 6, calculated power score: 83, calculated rank: 3).
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 6 (16.5%).  Projected Wins: 10.3. Overall Playoff Odds: 73.4%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 7.5% (5).<7. CHI (9-3), (last week: 9, calculated power score: 39, calculated rank: 12)
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 2 (27.6%).  Projected Wins: 10.7.  Overall Playoff Odds: 72.5%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.9% (10).


Before their bye, the Bears had lost two straight; since, they are 5-0 and lead the division.  Huge test this week with New England coming to town.  Followed by a road trip to the Vikings, hosting the Jets, and at key division rival Packers to end the season.  Bears have been surprising, but this stretch is brutal.

8. NO (9-3), (last week: 10), calculated power score: 43, calculated rank: 10).

FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 5 (57.9%).  Projected Wins: 11.2. Overall Playoff Odds: 89.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.2% (Cool.


Saints another team on a five-game win streak, but before you start thinking about the Saints slipping past the Falcons in the NFCS, they need to beat Sam Bradford and the upstart Rams, then take back-to-back road trips to Baltimore and Atlanta, before hosting division rival Tampa Bay, currently 2 games back of them in the standings.  Like the Bears, the Saints face a tough haul down the stretch but still appear to be in good shape for a wild card, at least.

9. NYJ (9-3), (last week: 3, calculated power score: 51, calculated rank: 9).
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 5 (63.0%).  Projected Wins: 11.1. Overall Playoff Odds: 96.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 3.4% (9).<<<12. KC (8-4), (last week: 13, calculated power score: 33, calculated rank: 16).
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 3 (57.3%).  Projected Wins: 10.1.  Overall Playoff Odds: 70.4%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.4% (11).<13. JAX (7-5), (last week: 15, calculated power score: 6, calculated rank: 22).

FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 4 (41.0%).  Projected Wins: 8.8.  Overall Playoff Odds: 50.0%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.3% (14).<<15. STL (6-6), (last week: 18, calculated power score: -19, calculated rank: 29).
 
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 4 (45.8%).  Projected Wins: 7.7.  Overall Playoff Odds: 45.9%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.2% (16).


Pretty amazing what Sam Bradford has meant to this resurgent Rams team.  Rams also got a good LT in rookie Rodger Saffold.  Not only that, but the defense is starting to play better too.  Last year, rookie Chris Long was being dismissed as a bust; this year, he has 6.5 sacks.  In fact, the Rams have 35 sacks on the year, tied with the Giants and Packers, and only 1 behind the Steelers and Raiders.  Both the Rams and Seahawks are 6-6, but the Rams appear to be playing better football than the Seahawks.

<17. MIA (6-6), (last week: 16, calculated power score: 37, calculated rank: 13).<18. CLE (5-7), (last week: 19, calculated power score: 34, calculated rank: 15). <19. TEN (5-7), (last week: 17, calculated power score: 36, calculated rank: 14).<20. OAK (6-6), (last week: 22, calculated power score: 13, calculated rank: 19).
 
<21. HOU (5-7), (last week: 20, calculated power score: 22, calculated rank: 17).

<22. MIN (5-7), (last week: 26, calculated power score: 11, calculated rank: 20).<23.   DAL (4-8), (last week: 25, calculated power score: -1, calculated rank: 23).<24. WAS (5-7), (last week: 21, calculated power score: -8, calculated rank: 26).
 
So you replace Jim Zorn with Mike Shanahan, Jason Campbell with Donovan McNabb, and it looks like the Redskins will finish with a worse record than their 8-8 in 2009?  How exactly the fuck do you explain that?

25. BUF (2-10), (last week: 23, calculated power score: -12, calculated rank: 28).<26. DET (2-10), (last week: 24, calculated power score: 6, calculated rank: 21).
 
One huge positive for the Lions was third string QB Drew Stanton doing the Dougie.  As a pioneering father of the Dougie dance movement, I would formally like to express my gratification to Stanton for giving the Dougie some ESPN and NFLN exposure. 

27. SF (4-8), (last week: 27, calculated power score: -8, calculated rank: 25).

Following the loss at Green Bay, former Ravens backup QB Troy Smith was demoted and his white brother, Alex, was again given the reins to the offense.  Yeah, that should do it!

28. SEA (6-6), (last week: 28, calculated power score: -31, calculated rank: 30).
 
<29. DEN (3-9), (last week: 29, calculated power score: -13, calculated rank: 29).<30. CIN (2-10), (last week: 30, calculated power score: -5, calculated rank: 24).<31. ARI (3-9), (last week: 31, calculated power score: -65, calculated rank: 31).<32. CAR (1-11), (last week: 32, calculated power score: -67, calculated rank: 32). <Thursday Game
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pensodyssey
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« Reply #1 on: Dec 09, 2010 at 23:17 »

Quote
So you replace Jim Zorn with Mike Shanahan, Jason Campbell with Donovan McNabb, and it looks like the Redskins will finish with a worse record than their 8-8 in 2009?  How exactly the fuck do you explain that?

Because they lost Randle el?


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« Reply #2 on: Dec 10, 2010 at 07:48 »

Quote
So you replace Jim Zorn with Mike Shanahan, Jason Campbell with Donovan McNabb, and it looks like the Redskins will finish with a worse record than their 8-8 in 2009?  How exactly the fuck do you explain that?

Because they lost Randle el?




Kinda like the Bengals - they're basically the same team that won the division last season but they added TO.  What could possibly have gone wrong there?
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« Reply #3 on: Dec 10, 2010 at 09:40 »

One minute, the game is 21-0, 2Q.  Early into the 3Q, it's a game again, 21-14.  Colts appear to have the spread covered late though, 30-21 with under 3 minutes remaining, validating my pick above.  But then the Tits get a meaningless backdoor cover, so whateverthefuckinghel l.

Colts could still make the post, especially if Oakland stays hot and beats the Jags this week.  Colts v. Jags in 2 weeks would then be for the division.  AFCS has really gone to shit though.  Colts have just worn down steadily over the last few years, and this year it all came apart.  Titans did their same old Chargers-in-reverse act of starting strong and finishing like pussies.  Texans have had the same old same old since Kubiak got there, Colts Lite offense and absolute shit for defense, and every year is gonna be their year until it isn't.  Jags are just pretenders, absolute clowns IMO, haven't been relevant in years.
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« Reply #4 on: Dec 10, 2010 at 14:15 »

Cleveland Browns (5-7) at Buffalo Bills (2-10)
Line: Bills by 1. Total: 39.


All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Bills by 7.<Browns win 20-17.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5) at Washington Redskins (5-7)
Line: Buccaneers by 2. Total: 41.


All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Bucs by 3.<Bucs 20-16.


Atlanta Falcons (10-2) at Carolina Panthers (1-11)
Line: Falcons by 7.5. Total: 42.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Falcons by 10.<Falcons 31-10. 


Oakland Raiders (6-6) at Jacksonville Jaguars (7-5)
Line: Jaguars by 4. Total: 42.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Raiders by 3.<Raiders 26-20.


Green Bay Packers (8-4) at Detroit Lions (2-10)
Line: Packers by 6.5. Total: 46.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Packers by 3.<Packers 34-16.


New York Giants (8-4) at Minnesota Vikings (5-7)
Line: Giants by 3. Total: 43.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Giants by 6.

Finny Says: Vikings are 3-2 over their last five, but the wins are over the Bills, Redskins, and Cardinals.  Meanwhile, the G-Men get back Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith this week, and will likely face Tarvaris Jackson at QB.  Giants 27-13.


Cincinnati Bengals (2-10) at Pittsburgh Steelers (9-3)
Line: Steelers by 8.5. Total: 39.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Steelers by 16.<Steelers lead 17-13 at the half, go on to win 42-13 in a winter wonderland.


St. Louis Rams (6-6) at New Orleans Saints (9-3)
Line: Saints by 9.5. Total: 47.


All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Saints by 12.<Saints 27-23.


Seattle Seahawks (6-6) at San Francisco 49ers (4-8)
Line: 49ers by 5.5. Total: 41.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  49ers by 11.<49ers 20-17.


Miami Dolphins (6-6) at New York Jets (9-3)
Line: Jets by 5.5. Total: 39.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Jets by 8.<Jets 31-24.


Denver Broncos (3-9) at Arizona Cardinals (3-9)
Line: Broncos by 4.5. Total: 42.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Broncos by 4.<Broncos 20-10.


Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) at San Diego Chargers (6-6)
Line: Chargers by 6.5. Total: 46.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Chargers by 10.

Finny Says:  Brodie Croyle faces a Chargers team that was embarrassed last week, and desperately needs a win to survive.  Predictable results ensue.  Chargers 34-17.


New England Patriots (10-2) at Chicago Bears (9-3)
Line: Patriots by 3. Total: 39.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Patriots by 1.

Finny Says:  You know what?  Fuck the Patriots.  Patriots win despite my noble sentiments, 34-17.


Philadelphia Eagles (8-4) at Dallas Cowboys (4-8)
Line: Eagles by 3.5. Total: 50.5.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Eagles by 8.<Eagles overcome sloppy play with some glitzy passing late to pull this out, 31-28.


Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Houston Texans (5-7)
Line: Ravens by 3. Total: 46.

All New Maffematical Predictor Says:  Ravens by 8.

Finny Says:  Ravens followed each of their previous two losses this season with 37 points on offense.  Expect the grape birds to be in a pissy mood.  Ravens 34-20.
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« Reply #5 on: Dec 13, 2010 at 09:51 »

Wow, whatever happened to the site screwed this thread to shit.
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« Reply #6 on: Dec 13, 2010 at 10:48 »

Just the formatting or also the content?  I restored from a backup but it shouldn't have messed up anything.
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« Reply #7 on: Dec 13, 2010 at 11:07 »

Just the formatting or also the content?  I restored from a backup but it shouldn't have messed up anything.

Both.  I'll re-post.
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« Reply #8 on: Dec 13, 2010 at 12:17 »

Just the formatting or also the content?  I restored from a backup but it shouldn't have messed up anything.

Yeah, my long FFL post is all shot to shit too.
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« Reply #9 on: Dec 13, 2010 at 12:42 »

1. NE (10-2), (last week: 1, calculated power score: 100, calculated rank: 1).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 1 (70.7%).  Projected Wins: 12.6.  Overall Playoff Odds: 99.8%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 21.5% (1).

When the biggest question your team faces is rumors that the QB is getting hair transplants, you know you’re golden.  Pats have inside to first round bye via the 1 seed.  Matchup in Chicago could be close though.

2. ATL (10-2), (last week: 2, calculated power score: 64, calculated rank: 6).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 1 (79.3%).  Projected Wins: 12.8.  Overall Playoff Odds: 99.8%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 15.9% (3).

The NFC frontrunner Falcons have some dings to Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, and Jason Snelling, but have a bye week this week (at Carolina).  Appear to be in great shape to dictate the NFC playoffs come through Atlanta, where the Falcons are 6-0 this season.

3. PIT (9-3), (last week: 7, calculated power score: 87, calculated rank: 2).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 2 (67.9%).  Projected Wins: 12.0. Overall Playoff Odds: 998%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 20.3% (2).

Steelers need better OL play, OC imagination, and more scoring, but for as banged up as they’ve been, they may be getting healthy at the right time.  Ravens game was crucial in playoff picture, but was hardly the signature win Tomlin wants.  Just another beautiful 3-point slobberknocker in one of the NFL’s best rivalries.

4. PHI (8-4), (last week: 5, calculated power score: 71, calculated rank: 4).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 3 (37.1%).  Projected Wins: 10.8.  Overall Playoff Odds: 74.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 16.3% (4).

Three of the next four games are division games, including both Dallas games – just as Dallas is belatedly pulling it together.  This Eagles team can be wildly up and down, but they can put a hurtin’ on anyone.  Talk of Vick as MVP is premature, but not irrational.  

5. BAL (8-4), (last week: 4, calculated power score: 67, calculated rank: 5).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 6 (57.7%).  Projected Wins: 10.4. Overall Playoff Odds: 87.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 10.5% (6).

Ravens had two big pass plays against Steelers, and the rest of their passing game was a total of 98 yards.  Ravens have a better OL than the Steelers, but likewise can have trouble with putting together scoring.  If current playoff trends hold, Ravens will be a dangerous wild card draw.

6.  GB (8-4), (last week: 6, calculated power score: 83, calculated rank: 3).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 6 (16.5%).  Projected Wins: 10.3. Overall Playoff Odds: 73.4%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 7.5% (5).

Week 17 matchup hosting the Bears looms huge now.  Packers seem to be playing better than the Bears, with a more complete offense to go with a solid defense, even though the Bears hold the NFCN edge.  For now.  Packers have had a Colts-like number of injuries, but unlike the Colts they keep bandaging up and moving on.  Newest face to note is rookie RB James Starks out of the U. of Buffalo, who could finally cue the Pack’s running game.

7. CHI (9-3), (last week: 9, calculated power score: 39, calculated rank: 12)  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 2 (27.6%).  Projected Wins: 10.7.  Overall Playoff Odds: 72.5%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 2.9% (10).

Before their bye, the Bears had lost two straight; since, they are 5-0 and lead the division.  Huge test this week with New England coming to town.  Followed by a road trip to the Vikings, hosting the Jets, and at key division rival Packers to end the season.  Bears have been surprising, but this stretch is brutal.

8. NO (9-3), (last week: 10), calculated power score: 43, calculated rank: 10).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 5 (57.9%).  Projected Wins: 11.2. Overall Playoff Odds: 89.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 4.2% ( 8 ).

Saints another team on a five-game win streak, but before you start thinking about the Saints slipping past the Falcons in the NFCS, they need to beat Sam Bradford and the upstart Rams, then take back-to-back road trips to Baltimore and Atlanta, before hosting division rival Tampa Bay, currently 2 games back of them in the standings.  Like the Bears, the Saints face a tough haul down the stretch but still appear to be in good shape for a wild card, at least.

9. NYJ (9-3), (last week: 3, calculated power score: 51, calculated rank: 9).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 5 (63.0%).  Projected Wins: 11.1. Overall Playoff Odds: 96.6%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 3.4% (9).

The Jets have talent, but even before the Patriots laid 45 on their defense, the Jets were just eking past some teams – a 3-point win over Houston, and 3-point OT wins over Detroit and Cleveland.  Like New Orleans, the Jets seem to have the inside track on a wild card spot, especially given the dropoff in the AFCN and AFCE after the Jets and Ravens, and the dearth of winning teams in the AFCS and AFCW.  Jets cannot afford to have their confidence shattered by MNF loss however, not at this point in the season.

10. NYG (8-4), (last week: 12, calculated power score: 57, calculated rank: 7).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *7 – outside looking in.  Projected Wins: 10.2.  Overall Playoff Odds: 65.3%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 5.4% (7).

Giants appear close to getting back Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith, although RB Ahmad Bradshaw has a wrist injury.  Even though they’ve been without both top WRs, the Giants have held even with the Eagles in the NFCE.  If the Saints do falter as the postseason approaches, the Giants could be the team to take advantage, although they finish with 3 of 4 games on the road: @Minn, Phila, @GB, @Wash.

11. SD (6-6), (last week: 8, calculated power score: 52, calculated rank: Cool.
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *8 – outside looking in.  .  Projected Wins: 8.6. Overall Playoff Odds: 25.4%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.3% (12).

Chargers were on a hot streak and looked poised to do their usual December run.  A loss, and wins by both the Chiefs and the Raiders, have the Chargers tied with the Raiders and 2 back of the Chiefs.  The Chargers should rebound with a relatively easy last four games, and the Chiefs’ Cassell will miss at least one game (appendectomy), but the Raiders are the division’s wild card.  This loss may have knocked them out of the postseason, and if it didn’t the margin of error is suddenly very, very thin.

12. KC (8-4), (last week: 13, calculated power score: 33, calculated rank: 16).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 3 (57.3%).  Projected Wins: 10.1.  Overall Playoff Odds: 70.4%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 1.4% (11).

Chiefs have won 3 straight against bad teams, but have to head into San Diego with Brodie Croyle under center.  The AFCW race could suddenly start to tighten up again…

13. JAX (7-5), (last week: 15, calculated power score: 6, calculated rank: 22).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 4 (41.0%).  Projected Wins: 8.8.  Overall Playoff Odds: 50.0%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.3% (14).

The Jags are on a torrid streak – 1 win – which is better than their division rivals have managed (Texans, 1 loss; Colts, 3 losses; Titans, 5 losses).  It’s hard to believe a team this inept is getting close to a division title – 300 points allowed is by far the most of any team, even the AFC and NFC West teams; Philadelphia is second with 281 PA.  But Jack Del Rio’s Chauncey Gardiner act may just get him the 4 seed in the AFC.  But until Peyton Manning is dead and buried (for the year) and Del Rio navigates the dangerous-again Raiders, a road trip to Indy, the trap game versus the Redskins, and a finale in Houston, let’s not write in Jacksonville’s appointment in ink just yet.

14. IND (6-6), (last week: 11, calculated power score: 39, calculated rank: 11).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *7 – outside looking in.  Projected Wins: 8.3. Overall Playoff Odds: 35.1%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.8% (13).

You know, one month the talking heads have their lips around Peyton’s dick, and the next month they can’t get enough of the fact that the mighty Manning has 11 picks (4 returned for TD) in 3 games.  Whatever.  Just because the Colts were the steadiest ship in the AFC for a decade doesn’t mean injuries don’t happen, down cycles can’t occur, and that even Manning can be human.  It’s not their year, but they aren’t dead yet.  But for the first time in a while, it’s apparent the Colts need to retool, more than just a leaky run defense that’s dripped steadily for a number of years.  Bill Polian regrets not bolstering the OL, Bob Sanders can’t stay healthy, and the Colts have a stable of RBs that amount to nothing.

15. STL (6-6), (last week: 18, calculated power score: -19, calculated rank: 29).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: 4 (45.8%).  Projected Wins: 7.7.  Overall Playoff Odds: 45.9%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.2% (16).

Pretty amazing what Sam Bradford has meant to this resurgent Rams team.  Rams also got a good LT in rookie Rodger Saffold.  Not only that, but the defense is starting to play better too.  Last year, rookie Chris Long was being dismissed as a bust; this year, he has 6.5 sacks.  In fact, the Rams have 35 sacks on the year, tied with the Giants and Packers, and only 1 behind the Steelers and Raiders.  Both the Rams and Seahawks are 6-6, but the Rams appear to be playing better football than the Seahawks.

16. TB (7-5), (last week: 14, calculated power score: 14, calculated rank: 18).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *9 – outside looking in.  Projected Wins: 9.3. Overall Playoff Odds: 24.5%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.3% (15).

Bucs kept it close with the Falcons, but appear to be a team that can’t handle the elite competition.  They’re not out of the mix yet in the wacky NFC wild card race, but losing CB Aqib Talib and C Jeff Faine won’t help any.

17. MIA (6-6), (last week: 16, calculated power score: 37, calculated rank: 13).
Dolphins screwed the pooch in losing 10-13 to the Browns, meaning they’d pretty much have to win out to get a wild card… and get a lot of help from other teams.  

18. CLE (5-7), (last week: 19, calculated power score: 34, calculated rank: 15).  
Browns won’t be firing Mangini, but instead will look to give Colt McCoy some weapons next year.  Rookie CB Joe Haden has played very well this year.

19. TEN (5-7), (last week: 17, calculated power score: 36, calculated rank: 14).
QB will certainly be a draft target this spring, but it remains to be seen if the Titans get any trade value for Vince Young.  This team has too much talent to be swooning this badly, but with four games to go, and two back of the Jaguars, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of hope for the Tits.

20. OAK (6-6), (last week: 22, calculated power score: 13, calculated rank: 19).  
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *9 – outside looking in.  Projected Wins: 7.9. Overall Playoff Odds: 13.5%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.1% (20).

Bizarre to say, the Raiders could still make the playoffs.  They were awful, then they were good!  Then they were awful again.  Now they’re good again!  Woo hoo!  Will the real Oakland Raiders please stand up?  

21. HOU (5-7), (last week: 20, calculated power score: 22, calculated rank: 17).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *10 – outside looking in.  Projected Wins: 7.1. Overall Playoff Odds: 9.1%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.2% (19).

At 5-7, the Texans are in the same boat as the Titans.  The Texans seem to have as much chance as the Titans at putting it together at this point in the season, but they could throw the Ravens a surprise this weekend.  Football Outsiders gives them a 9.1% chance at making the playoffs, which earns them inclusion in my top 10 for each conference.  Eleventh?  The Titans, at 8.6%.  Don’t bank on either.
22. MIN (5-7), (last week: 26, calculated power score: 11, calculated rank: 20).
Clearly Tarvaris Jackson is the answer.  Vikings have a little pop with Sid Rice back, and Leslie Frazier isn’t afraid to run AP.  But, too little too late.  

23.   DAL (4-8), (last week: 25, calculated power score: -1, calculated rank: 23)
Dallas has actually played some football under Jason Garrett, although the Dallas defense isn’t all that good.  Like the Vikings, too little too late.

24. WAS (5-7), (last week: 21, calculated power score: -8, calculated rank: 26).  
So you replace Jim Zorn with Mike Shanahan, Jason Campbell with Donovan McNabb, and it looks like the Redskins will finish with a worse record than their 8-8 in 2009?  How exactly the fuck do you explain that?

25. BUF (2-10), (last week: 23, calculated power score: -12, calculated rank: 28).
If the Vikings offense – which has scored 40 fewer points than the Steelers this season – if the Vikings could hang 38 on Buffalo, with Tarvaris Jackson no less, why could the Steelers only muster 19 (in OT) against this sad defense?  It boggles the mind.  Buffalo has to hope they can land Andrew Luck in the draft.

26. DET (2-10), (last week: 24, calculated power score: 6, calculated rank: 21).  
One huge positive for the Lions was third string QB Drew Stanton doing the Dougie.  As a pioneering father of the Dougie dance movement, I would formally like to express my gratification to Stanton for giving the Dougie some ESPN and NFLN exposure.  

27. SF (4-8), (last week: 27, calculated power score: -8, calculated rank: 25).
Following the loss at Green Bay, former Ravens backup QB Troy Smith was demoted and his white brother, Alex, was again given the reins to the offense.  Yeah, that should do it!

28. SEA (6-6), (last week: 28, calculated power score: -31, calculated rank: 30).
FO Projected Conference Seed Ranking and Odds: *8—outside looking in.  Projected Wins: 7.3. Overall Playoff Odds: 38.4%.  Odds to Win Super Bowl: 0.1% (23).

Seattle is tied with the Rams for first in the NFCW and did win last weekend.  The bad news is they suck dead goat balls and were losing the Panthers – the fucking PANTHERS, of all teams! – 14-0 before coming back.  I actually thought the Panthers might pull the upset, but it appears that they suck even worse than the Seahawks.  Still, I think a bunch of MGS alcoholics and shabby Charlie Brown types could go toe to toe with this bunch of weasels.

29. DEN (3-9), (last week: 29, calculated power score: -13, calculated rank: 29).
Denver is the latest team to try out the theory of firing the coach and seeing if that was what was holding the team back.  Josh McDaniels was a twit, but I wouldn’t expect a lot from this crew.

30. CIN (2-10), (last week: 30, calculated power score: -5, calculated rank: 24).
Bengals keep doing their little comeback dance every week, but the fact is they can’t win shit right now.  Even with the Steelers beat to fucking hell, there’s no damned way the Bengals are even close to the Steelers, which means the Steelers will allow them to come back and only win by 3 or 4.  Start the countdown to the Marv Lewis firing, and frankly Carson Palmer can start writing his memoir drafts.

31. ARI (3-9), (last week: 31, calculated power score: -65, calculated rank: 31).
Knuurt Waerner retires.  Matty boy Leinert gets the bum rush.  Derek Anderson is there, but he sucks.  Max Hall was the answer until he wasn’t.  Now Coach Whiz will try out rookie John Skelton.  You know, it’s almost as though the QB is an important position or something.

32. CAR (1-11), (last week: 32, calculated power score: -67, calculated rank: 32).
John Fox responded to reporters’ questions by saying the loss wasn’t due to lack of effort.  Reading between the lines, Fox is admitting his team has no talent.  
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Out of my mind on Saturday night...
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