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Author Topic: Anyone got ESPN Insider?  (Read 823 times)
Preacherman0
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« on: Jan 11, 2011 at 12:50 »

There is an article by KC Joyner about Ben being equal to Brady.  I rarely care about this stuff, but if anyone could post this it would be appreciated.
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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 13:09 »

Don't have Insider anymore, but with a lead in like this, it almost makes me want to pay $6.95 just to see where he goes with it...almost...

By the end of the 1977 NFL season, Pittsburgh Steelers star Terry Bradshaw could have had every reason in the world to feel like the world's most overlooked quarterback.

Over the previous six years, he had posted a stellar 49-17 regular-season record and an equally impressive 8-4 postseason mark. Two of those playoff wins were Super Bowl victories and in both of those contests he threw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass that helped seal the win for the Steelers.

Despite this abundance of success, Bradshaw still seemingly had not convinced the world he was among the best at his position. Proof of this can be found in the 1977 All-Pro and Pro Bowl voting.

Bradshaw had guided his team to a 9-5 record and the AFC Central Division title and yet was beaten out for those postseason honors not just by the likes of Bob Griese and Roger Staubach (the consensus choices as the top quarterbacks of that season), but also by lesser talents such as Pat Haden and Jim Hart.

Near the end of the 2010 season, Ben Roethlisberger could be in exactly the same kind of overlooked boat as his Black and Gold predecessor. Like Bradshaw, he has a superb regular-season record (69-29, a .704 win percentage that is third-best of any quarterback since 1970) and a dominant 8-2 postseason mark that includes two Super Bowl titles.

Also like Bradshaw, Roethlisberger is coming off a campaign where his team went 9-3 with him under center and won a hard-fought division title. Still, it wasn't enough for him to be named one of the six quarterbacks going to the Pro Bowl.

While that certainly doesn't seem fair on its face, what makes it even more unjust is that a closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.
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Merman1983
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« Reply #2 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 13:25 »

Whole article for those interested:

By the end of the 1977 NFL season, Pittsburgh Steelers star Terry Bradshaw could have had every reason in the world to feel like the world's most overlooked quarterback.



Over the previous six years, he had posted a stellar 49-17 regular-season record and an equally impressive 8-4 postseason mark. Two of those playoff wins were Super Bowl victories and in both of those contests he threw a fourth-quarter touchdown pass that helped seal the win for the Steelers.



Despite this abundance of success, Bradshaw still seemingly had not convinced the world he was among the best at his position. Proof of this can be found in the 1977 All-Pro and Pro Bowl voting.



Bradshaw had guided his team to a 9-5 record and the AFC Central Division title and yet was beaten out for those postseason honors not just by the likes of Bob Griese and Roger Staubach (the consensus choices as the top quarterbacks of that season), but also by lesser talents such as Pat Haden and Jim Hart.



Near the end of the 2010 season, Ben Roethlisberger could be in exactly the same kind of overlooked boat as his Black and Gold predecessor. Like Bradshaw, he has a superb regular-season record (69-29, a .704 win percentage that is third-best of any quarterback since 1970) and a dominant 8-2 postseason mark that includes two Super Bowl titles.



Also like Bradshaw, Roethlisberger is coming off a campaign where his team went 9-3 with him under center and won a hard-fought division title. Still, it wasn't enough for him to be named one of the six quarterbacks going to the Pro Bowl.



While that certainly doesn't seem fair on its face, what makes it even more unjust is that a closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.




A closer look at the game tape and metrics shows that Big Ben was just as good this season as AFC Pro Bowl starter -- and all but certain 2010 NFL MVP -- Tom Brady.


There are three metric areas that work best to illustrate this:



The first is the short pass yards per attempt metric (YPA) (a short pass being one thrown 10 yards or less from the line of scrimmage). Brady's 7.0 YPA total here is excellent, but Roethlisberger's 7.5 YPA is a bit better. One could almost call this a push.



Second on the list is vertical YPA (vertical being defined as a pass thrown 11 or more yards downfield). Brady posted an 11.6 YPA mark, but that was nearly equaled by Roethlisberger's 11.4 YPA. Again, pretty much a push.



Third is bad decision percentage (a bad decision defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near-turnover such a dropped interception). Brady has always excelled here and his 1.3 percent mark this year meets his historically high standards. Although it tops Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total, and should seemingly give Brady a significant statistical edge, two things need to be noted here.



First, seven-tenths of a percentage point over the course of a 500-attempt season (which is roughly the attempt pace that both Brady and Roethlisberger were on this year, if Roethlisberger's attempt total was pro-rated over a 16-game schedule) equals between three and four extra bad decisions. In other words, an extra mistake by Roethlisberger every four to five games.



Now consider that Roethlisberger and Brady play in offenses that have markedly different passing philosophies. The New England Patriots switched to a dink-and-dunk offense this year and that led to 70.7 percent of Brady's throws occurring at the short-pass depth level.



To put 70.7 percent into perspective, consider that when Matt Cassel filled in for the injured Brady for almost the entire 2008 season, short passes accounted for only 65.3 percent of New England's pass attempts. The Patriots' brain trust scaled things back dramatically for Cassel and yet they still dink and dunked it more this year than they did that season.



Now contrast those figures to Roethlisberger's 55.9 percent short pass total. This indicates that the Steelers' offense is absolutely not short-pass centric, but the contrast becomes even easier to see when comparing the vertical pass percentages for each quarterback. Roethlisberger's vertical throws accounted for 37.4 percent of his attempts versus 26.8 percent of Brady's.



In other words, Roethlisberger is piloting a high-risk/high-reward offense. A solid bad decision rate for a quarterback of that nature would be in the 2.5-to-3 percent range and Roethlisberger's 2.0 percent total is well below that. Brady's 1.3 percent mark is just as superb (a 2.0 percent total is considered good for dink/dunk offenses) but when this context is applied, it is clear that his lead in this metric is fairly negligible at best.



And that's the story with pretty much any measurement one can come up with to compare Roethlisberger and Brady both for this season and their careers. The biggest exception to this might be that Brady has three Super Bowl rings to Roethlisberger's two, but the second-biggest exception is that Roethlisberger is 4½ years younger -- he has a lot more time to make up the title gap than Brady has to extend it.



It also could mean that Roethlisberger has a chance to mimic Bradshaw in one other important way. As overlooked as the Blond Bomber was in 1977, after he piloted his team to two more Super Bowl wins, he finally received his due by being named the first-string quarterback on the NFL's All-Decade Team of the 1970s.



The timing of Roethlisberger's career means that he won't have a chance to beat out Brady for All-Decade honors, but if he guides the Steelers to a Super Bowl this season and ties Brady in the championship rings category, his odds of eventually surpassing Brady as the No. 1 quarterback of this generation are actually quite good.

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Preacherman0
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« Reply #3 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 14:08 »

That guy has way too much time on his hands, but I have to say that it's a pretty interesting analysis.
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aj_law
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« Reply #4 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 16:01 »

The timing of Roethlisberger's career means that he won't have a chance to beat out Brady for All-Decade honors, but if he guides the Steelers to a Super Bowl this season and ties Brady in the championship rings category, his odds of eventually surpassing Brady as the No. 1 quarterback of this generation are actually quite good.

Easy.  Pump the brakes there, bud.

As much as I'd like to see that, it would require a lot of work by #7 to sniff that level.

A win this year (provided he's a lot closer to '08 form than '05) would likely vault him up to #2 ahead of Manning, stats be damned, and likely to the dismay of guys like Rivers, Rodgers, et al.

Getting ahead of Golden Boy, though?  Hope he knows how to change some water to wine...
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pensodyssey
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« Reply #5 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 17:40 »

Quote from: aj
Easy.  Pump the brakes there, bud.

As much as I'd like to see that, it would require a lot of work by #7 to sniff that level.

Disagree.  Brady's greatness will always be tempered by Ballachimp's.  Just as Bradshaw's is tempered by the out and talent level of his organization (Noll's, Moore's, multiple HOF'ers on either side of the ball).

It is not inconceivable that Ben will equal Brady for rings. 



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Preacherman0
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« Reply #6 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 18:57 »

Lettermen's Lounge did QB rankings before Christmas.  I got a lot of flack over the fact that I went Brady #1, Ben #2. 

Neither of them has had great WR talent.  Both have had good RBs, Brady has clearly had a better oline. 

Scary thing about Beardy is that the Patsies have six picks in R1-3 in the draft.  He may beat Father Time because that's going to allow those bastages to put a lot of young talent around him.

If we put some talent in front of Ben (if we ever decide that's important), then Ben has a chance to do the same.  But it's doubtful that he'll ever last as long as Brady, 'cause Ben never gets the calls and he plays like he has balls.
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aj_law
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« Reply #7 on: Jan 11, 2011 at 20:32 »

Quote from: aj
Easy.  Pump the brakes there, bud.

As much as I'd like to see that, it would require a lot of work by #7 to sniff that level.

Disagree.  Brady's greatness will always be tempered by Ballachimp's.  Just as Bradshaw's is tempered by the out and talent level of his organization (Noll's, Moore's, multiple HOF'ers on either side of the ball).

It is not inconceivable that Ben will equal Brady for rings. 

Wasn't really questioning whether he could equal Beardy's jewelry total.  Was talking about him being perceived as the #1 QB of this generation.  IMO, a couple more rings alone wouldn't change that because after all, as everybody knows, that first one didn't really count.
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« Reply #8 on: Jan 12, 2011 at 09:01 »

Lettermen's Lounge did QB rankings before Christmas.  I got a lot of flack over the fact that I went Brady #1, Ben #2. 

Neither of them has had great WR talent. 


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« Reply #9 on: Jan 12, 2011 at 09:27 »

It's easy to say that Brady is clearly better than BBR.  Who would argue?  Well, I might, naturally.  I enjoy being the contrarian.

Brady's 33.  He's had time to compile a portfolio.  Ben's always going to be catching up to him.

But what about when Brady was where Ben is now?  Rather than looking at Brady's numbers when he was 27, how about looking at Brady after 7 full seasons (i.e., excluding 2000 for Brady)?  Both Ben and Brady have seen their teams emphasize the passing game more and more as they matured -- Brady wasn't exactly putting up huge numbers early on.  This comparison comes at a good time, because the 2007 season (comparable to Ben's 2010) comes before Brady was out the entire 2008 season. 

One caveat: Ben's been dealt more injuries and, of course, the suspension from that fucking Nazi whore, Rudyard Goodhell.  With 110 strarts to Ben's 98, one would expect Brady to have 12% better numbers.  I think Ben compares well anyway, but I'll also kick out the 12% adjustment to show how they stack on more even footing.

Thomas Edward Patrick Brady, Jr. (born August 3, 1977), 2001-07 Season Totals

Att: 3639. Comp: 2293.  %: 63.0%. Yards: 26,364.  TD: 197. INT:  86.  YPA: 7.2. Passer Rating: 93.0. Rings: 3.

Benjamin Todd Roethlisberger (born March 2, 1982), 2004-10 Season Totals

Att: 2800 (Adj: 3143). Comp: 1766 (Adj: 1982) .  %: 63.1%. Yards: 22,502 (Adj: 25,257).  TD: 144 (Adj: 162). INT:  86 (Adj: 97).  YPA: 8.0. Passer Rating: 92.5. Rings: 2.

Brady's done measurably better in attempts and total yards, and has a higher TD %.  The rest?  Pretty fucking even.

It's difficult to estimate the career window of both guys.  But let's say that Brady now has 2 more complete seasons than Ben, since 2008 was lost to injury.  That basically puts Ben at Brady's current number of active seasons when he's 29, rather than 33.  It helps Ben's case that Brady sat a year behind Bledsoe, that Brady came out a year later than Ben, and that Brady got fucked up in 2008.  It hurts Ben's case that he's taken an horrific beating on and off the field (2006 is not even factored into this discussion), and that Brady could play another 30 years behind that OL.  It would also hurt Ben's case if Brady wins another Lombardi this year, or any year.  Getting one more for Ben is very do-able, two or more is a tough call.

It would be easy to see Brady playing another 5 years, calling it quits at 38 or so, and it would be easy to see Ben continue to take a beating and barely lasting to Brady's current age of 33.  Two things: Ben's the toughest SOB this side of Favre, and Brady ain't.  If that OL of Brady's does start to decline, one good shot and Mr. Hair Transplant could be moving on to his new career selling cranial merkins.

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