AFC Title Game: NYJ @ PIT 1/22/11 6:30pm ET

[otismalibu]

Whose jersey do we carry out for the coin toss?

[pensodyssey]

Whose jersey do we carry out for the coin toss?

Santonio Holmes.

[Preacherman0]

Whose jersey do we carry out for the coin toss?


Santonio Holmes.

Along with some plastic bags filled with substance for "medicinal purposes" only.

"Come on 'Tone, can you smell it?  Do ya want it?"

[Manimal]

Ok, so who is the key player on our side for this game?

My early thought on this is that it's Mendenhall. I say Mendenhall because I expect a typical performance from Ben - some inconsistency, some maddening sacks, big plays when they matter. I expect the D to make plays and get at least two turnovers out of Sanchez.

But I think if we don't get some decent production out of Mendenhall and the running game, this will come down to the last half-quarter or so. Mendy can't fumble. He needs to minimize the lateral running that gets no gain. He doesn't need to be great. But if Mendy's stat line is 21 carries, 65 yards, no fumbles, I believe we win the game. If it's more like 25 and 100, no fumbles, I believe we win by two TDs, barring special teams fuck ups.

[Preacherman0]

But if Mendy's stat line is 21 carries, 65 yards, no fumbles, I believe we win the game. If it's more like 25 and 100, no fumbles, I believe we win by two TDs, barring special teams fuck ups.

I'd say that's a pretty solid suggestion.  In spite of the fumble and mediocre numbers Sat., Mendy did just enough to be a factor in the game.  And the effort on the last TD was amazing.

In typical form, I am nervous because I am leaning towards the optimistic side of things.  Here's why:

Dick LeBeau's defense in "Round 2" with an opponent.

Ravens
Game 1:  320 total yards
             Flacco:  24-37, 256, 1 td, 1 pic, 82 rating.  2 total turnovers.  70 rush.  30.31 TOP
Game 2:  269
   Flacco:  17-33, 266, 1-0, 88 rate, 1 turnover.  54 rush.  25.52 TOP
   (Also, factor in that over 100 yards came on two plays in the first half)
Game 3:  126
   Flacco:  16-30, 125, 1-1, 61 rate.  3 turnovers. 35 rush. 25.32

Browns
Game 1:  327
   McCoy:  23-33, 281, 1-2, 80 rate.  3 tunrovers.  69 rush. 28.4
Game 2:  225
   McCoy:  20-41, 209, 1-3, 41.6. 3 turnovers.  43 rush.  26.46

Bengals
Game 1:  272
   Carson Daly:  22-36, 248, 2-1, 88.  2 turnovers.  54 rush.  27.41
Game 2:  190
   Carson:  20-32, 178, 1-3, 48.  3 turnovers.  34 rush.  25.29

I’m just putting some facts to what several people have already opined on this board.  The second time around against DL’s Steel Curtain is a lot tougher than round one.  I suspect that Dirty Sanchez will see a very different look than he did in December.

Special teams MUST shore up.  We cannot let Brad Smith get the big return again.  Squib it, pooch it, whatever you gotta do.  I’ll take my chances with Dirty and ‘Stonio from the 38 rather than letting Smith run it right up the middle.

Also, cannot ignore the absence of Troy and Heat in game 1.  Ben completed a lot of passes to our less-than-stellar backup TEs Spaeth and Johnson in that game, and even went to Spaeth on the final play.  While both of those guys came around and played well, they had “dropsy” in the 1st qtr and still don’t equal Heat as threats.  Against this Jets team, the TE might be a key.

And no question that Troy’s presence, even if he does not have a big play, will make a huge difference.  Troy also tends to follow up a quiet performance with something other-worldly.

It’s gonna be another bloodbath this Sunday.  I’m hoping that this team can equal the intensity of the second half vs. the Ravens.  Having lost the first game should provide a little extra motivation for these guys to…um…stomp on the Jets’ toes.

[pensodyssey]

Is Brad Smith playing on sunday?  Not sure how bad he was hurt.

[Finnegans Wake]

Is Brad Smith playing on sunday?  Not sure how bad he was hurt.

Thought it was a groin injury?  Even if he suits, can't imagine him being over it completely.

Like to know what our injury report is.  Seems like a lot of guys were dinged Saturday.

[aj_law]

Is Brad Smith playing on sunday?  Not sure how bad he was hurt.

Heard Ryan say in an interview that if he wasn't ready for this past Sunday, he ain't gonna suit up this coming Sunday either.

Don't put a lotta stock in that, tho.

[give'emthaboot]

Even if Smith doesn't play, Cromartie looked pretty good back there returning kicks.

I personally think the Jets played their Super Bowl last week.  He'll, Rex Ryan himself said it was the 2nd most important game in franchise history (despite his team playing in the AFCC game a year ago).  I find it hard to believe they can get up again like that for another game, you have to think they are emotionally spent.  That doesn't change the fact that they have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball though.  Contain LDT and Greene (shouldn't be a problem, run defense is beyond solid) and make Sanchez win the game.  Sounds easy enough.

The Jets defense made Brady look like Matt Cassel, but disrupting the pocket isn't enough to get Ben off of his game.  Quite the opposite, actually.  As long as he doesn't hold on to the ball too long, I think he can attack their blitzes all day.  The secondary looked good against NE, but this team is developing some nice weapons and I think the Jets will find Heath Miller to be on a whole different playing field than Algenon Crumpler and Honkowski.  I expect him to be a difference maker while Revis/Cromartie do their best to contain Hines/Wallace.

Maybe I'm just relieved we don't have the Pats this weekend, but I don't see how we end up losing this game.

[Finnegans Wake]

The more I think about it, the more this game looks like another close, slug it to the end kinda Stillers matchup.

The Jets put everything into their divisional matchup, but we didn't?  Is there a psych advantage for us?  A more veteran team, able to bounce back better perhaps?

Positive:  STs had a bad week, allowing Cro a KR for 6 off the bat, difference in the game.  NFL average for KR TDs in 2010 was 0.7; high was 3 (SD); Steelers had 1.  Have to see that as an anomaly. 

Negative:  Punting kept us at a disadvantage for field position all night.  That seems less anomalous.

Positives:  Heath Miller will be back.  Better blocker.  Better receiver.  Troy will be back.  Even when mundane, Troy represents an ungodly threat, rest of team is elevated.

Negatives:  Uhh, none.

Positive: Steelers outgained Jets 378-276; BR 23-44-264-1, MS 19-29-170-0; Mendenhall 17-99-1, LT 11-49-0, Shonn Greene 12-40-0.

Negative:  We still lost.

Positive:  Steelers allowed only 3 sacks.

Negative:  Steelers D posted only 1 sack.  OL got beaten to shit by BRD.  Ryan may flip the script and blitz all out.  Ryan decided to suit all 11 DBs for the Pats scrum, and the common denominator for Pats and Colts was less blitzing, more coverage.  Not surprised they could throw a blanket on the Colts backups, but that they could stop the Pats hydra attack was a surprise.  Ben's had success this year against blitzing about a third of the time, so if Ryan sends 3, the OL looks miraculously improved.  If he drops guys in cover, Ben can find his receivers.

On this last point, the keys to this game are absolutely the OL's ability to pick up 3 and 4 rushers -- if they can't stop Shaun Ellis (who IIRC was out against us in the prev.?), this game will get ugly.  2 of the 3 sacks were corner blitzes by Derrick Coleman.  Having Heath will help there.  In fact, keeping Heath in to chip against Ellis and the CB will be a big plus. 

But I think the big difference-maker will be Mendenhall.  Mendy had ~100 last time, and the Jets simply didn't think that either the Colts or the Pats were serious about running the ball.  Colts were terrible in that, but the Pats put up marginally better numbers -- perhaps a function of big leads and general bitch-slappery.  Steelers need to counter the blitz and the pass rush with the quick hitters that have been going to the rooks of late, and by running the ball with authority.  If the Jets can befuddle a vet group of WRs like the Pats, that may bode ill for our using 84 and 88, so BA will need to call a very smart game.  If we run the ball well, and get chunks with the rooks, we can hope to tire that front 7.

I also think Wallace can beat any CB on that team deep.

Still working my way towards a final analysis, just talking through it, so ignore me.  But if I had to choose, I'd be inclined to say Steelers by ~4.