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Author Topic: AFC Title Game: NYJ @ PIT 1/22/11 6:30pm ET  (Read 6747 times)
Manimal
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« Reply #10 on: Jan 18, 2011 at 19:08 »

Positive:  Steelers allowed only 3 sacks.

Negative:  Steelers D posted only 1 sack.  OL got beaten to shit by BRD.  Ryan may flip the script and blitz all out.  Ryan decided to suit all 11 DBs for the Pats scrum, and the common denominator for Pats and Colts was less blitzing, more coverage.  Not surprised they could throw a blanket on the Colts backups, but that they could stop the Pats hydra attack was a surprise.  Ben's had success this year against blitzing about a third of the time, so if Ryan sends 3, the OL looks miraculously improved.  If he drops guys in cover, Ben can find his receivers.

This makes me wonder, too, that another key will be Ben's decision-making with his legs. (I was going to write 'feet' there, but the only thing I want Bart Scott fired up about is Ward blocking Revis into next week.)

To continue my point: Ben has made some great decisions running the ball this year. It seems like 3 or 4 times, he's taken off on a 2nd-and-19 and gotten the first down his own damn self. So if the Jets play a Rush-3-and-cover on a lot of plays, I don't think Ben is going to get caught like Brady, looking skittish in the pocket and wondering what to do, looking like an idiot with a lump of leather in his hand.

Ben is a running threat, Brady, not so much.

My overall take on this game: the Jets can beat us, but only because this is the NFL and it's a one-and-done deal. They shouldn't beat us. I will swear by this: the Jets offensive line is the only good thing about that offense. Win the battle in the trenches, and that offense isn't doing shit.
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« Reply #11 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 10:52 »

This is kinda cool, predicts a 20-17 Steelers win via a compilation of simulations:

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20110123023

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #12 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 11:45 »

This is kinda cool, predicts a 20-17 Steelers win via a compilation of simulations:

http://www.whatifsports.com/beyondtheboxscore/default.asp?article=20110123023


Interesting.  Two sites' simulation results:

Quote from: What If Sports

Win %

New York Jets 37.6%
@ Pittsburgh Steelers 62.4%

Green Bay Packers 52.1%
@ Chicago Bears 47.9%

 


They project a 20-17 Steelers win and a 20-19 Packers win.

Quote from: Football Outsiders

Team   Conf Win   SB Win
PIT   64.1%   37.1%
NYJ   35.9%   16.6%

GB   50.6%   25.7%
CHI   49.4%   20.6%


« Last Edit: Jan 19, 2011 at 11:53 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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« Reply #13 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 12:20 »

FO has that GB/CHI matchup as basically a tossup.  I like that the Steelers are the SB fave!  I wonder if they're using similar metrics?  

Whatever the case, both sites are predicting nail-biters this weekend.  Should be fun.

Interesting tidbit about the SB here in DFW - Jerry World, aka, the Death Star, aka, the New Texas Stadium, et. al, will be offering about 10000? outdoor tickets for people who want to "be at" the SB to watch it in the parking lot on big screens.  I believe the price is $200.  Go figure.
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« Reply #14 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 12:37 »

Quote
Interesting tidbit about the SB here in DFW - Jerry World, aka, the Death Star, aka, the New Texas Stadium, et. al, will be offering about 10000? outdoor tickets for people who want to "be at" the SB to watch it in the parking lot on big screens.  I believe the price is $200.  Go figure.

That's a good opportunity.

For current Cowboys players.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #15 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 12:41 »

Quote
Interesting tidbit about the SB here in DFW - Jerry World, aka, the Death Star, aka, the New Texas Stadium, et. al, will be offering about 10000? outdoor tickets for people who want to "be at" the SB to watch it in the parking lot on big screens.  I believe the price is $200.  Go figure.

That's a good opportunity.

For current Cowboys players.

See?  It really was their year!
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« Reply #16 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 15:19 »

OK.  

There might not be any verbal jousts flying back and forth in the media, but I can tell you that I'm officially tired of hearing from fans about this being "their year" and that this has been a "magical playoff run."  

Blah, blah, blah.

"Pittsburgh has lost to a bunch of teams with winning records this year."

Blah, blah, blah.

"Jets won by 5 the last time they faced them at their place and they didn't even play that well."

Blah, blah, blah.

And, to top it all off, they're getting ceremonial flybys of the Empire State building adorned in Jets colors.

That game last week was their SB.

C'mon.  Fuck these clowns.  

Save the last second heroics for another day.  I want this beatdown to rank up there with the one they got from the Patriots a month and a half ago.  I want this one OVER at halftime.

Jump on these douchenozzles early.  Win the toss and choose to receive.  March downfield and put a 7 spot up on the board.  Put 'em in a hole early and force them to play catch up.  They know they won't be able to just line up and run the ball so I expect them to pass early to set up the run late.  Expect it; be ready for it; take advantage of it.  Force a turnover and go for the killer shot.  Get them down by double digits and we'll see how many Holmes first down signals he'll break out.  When he does, have Harrison snap that twiggy arm and jam it down his gullet, PF/suspension be damned.

Snoozer.

Blowout.

I want their blood splattered all over "Ivegotsexyfeet's" toes and when Rexy goes to lick it off, his lap band snaps causing him to blow up like a Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade balloon.

Yawner.

I want 64-0.

...Championship...
« Last Edit: Jan 19, 2011 at 15:21 by aj_law » Logged

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« Reply #17 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 15:43 »

At the very least, I like the idea of getting the ball and taking a lead and forcing Dirty to try to be the comeback kid.  Bad role for him, as opposed to Ben.
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Manimal
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« Reply #18 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 15:48 »

At the very least, I like the idea of getting the ball and taking a lead and forcing Dirty to try to be the comeback kid.  Bad role for him, as opposed to Ben.

Absolutely. Here's the critical fact about this matchup:

Mark Sanchez is not a very good quarterback. Repeat. He's not good. He's a 54%-er in an era when 62% is nothing special. He's not good. Might he be good one day? Who knows and who cares. Right now, he's not good.

He does have a very good team around him, though. Good backs, okay receivers (not buying Braylon), good line (though Ferguson can be had, I think). Good defense.

Make him win the game for them. Getting the early lead is really important. Getting a two-score lead in the first half, will, I believe, lead to a turnover-fest and a blowout. Problem is, we tend not to start too strong on offense. This is the game where that has to change.
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« Reply #19 on: Jan 19, 2011 at 15:51 »

Flacco, Sanchez, Palmer (of late) can look pretty good, but will give you at least one quarter of horseshit play. Steelers must feast on that.
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