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Author Topic: Super Bowl XLV, Feb. 6, 2011  (Read 8414 times)
pensodyssey
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« Reply #10 on: Jan 25, 2011 at 19:52 »

you never know when the next chance will show itself.

I'm old enough remember 1980-1995-2004, for one.
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« Reply #11 on: Jan 25, 2011 at 21:55 »

From the standpoint of straight analysis, I think we match up pretty poorly with the Packers.  Their wideouts are exceedingly dangerous, their offensive line is at least above average, and they have a stud of a QB just like we do.  We have the better running back and TE.

Defensively, they have great LBs and NG who will create problems for our extremely patchwork offensive line.  The biggest advantage they have is Dom Capers, who is almost as good as DL; although, we must keep in mind that DL is the INVENTOR of the zone blitz/3-4 scheme.

Special teams seem like a wash without looking directly at the stats.  I don't hear anyone talking about return threats and such from either side.

Biggest problem is our offensive line and our OCoordinator.  It will take something special for the Steelers to scheme something up with six fairly mediocre players up front.  It's difficult to imagine that he won't but BR must also play better, MUCH better, than he did in the AFCC.  I do think his performance is being blown out of proportion a bit, especially by certain Brady-humping journalists in Boston who are still crying in their Sam Adams.  He made the right plays when he had to make them, and passer ratings don't take into account running for three first downs and a TD.  Still, I believe that we will need a performance more akin to the 2005 run up to the Super Bowl and the 2009 Super Bowl itself.

All in all, it's a lot for the Steelers to overcome.  Green Bay is healthier than we are.  Their road to the big dance was much easier, in spite of the extra game.  I would have to say that the Packers are rightfully favored.

But there is one fact that cannot be measured but also cannot be discarded.  Everyone has doubted this team all season long.  They have questioned them on almost every level, and most of us have had more than our fair share of doubts.  I have picked against the Steelers a lot this season, as have many others. 

And they just keep proving so many people wrong. 

I can't get away from the fact that these guys just seem to keep finding a way to get it done, no matter what obstacle is thrown in front of them.  Maybe this is the game where it finally catches up to them, I don't know.  But this is just the kind of challenge that seems to bring out the best in this group. 

So here's to hope.  The odds may be against the Steelers, but this is a group that seems to like it that way.  And they like nothing better than proving the oddsmakers wrong.
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Manimal
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« Reply #12 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 08:41 »

I can't get away from the fact that these guys just seem to keep finding a way to get it done, no matter what obstacle is thrown in front of them.  Maybe this is the game where it finally catches up to them, I don't know.  But this is just the kind of challenge that seems to bring out the best in this group.  

Great post. I agree with this, in particular. I think the Packers should be the favorites, and yet, I'm not worried about this game. Doesn't mean I think we can't lose. We might. But we will show up, we will be a handful, and, believe me, the Packers were rooting hard for a Jets comeback. Nobody wants to face us in a Super Bowl. I actually have a feeling that we will win.

The Packers-Bears game gave me hope. With their offense doing absolutely nothing, the Bears were able to get a pretty good handle on that Packer offense. the Steelers will do even better, because I am absolutely confident that the Packers' running game will be stonewalled. If they have 20 yards rushing at the half, unless most of it came on one run, I'll be shocked. It's all going to be on Aaron Rodgers, and I think a few hits on him early and it will knock him off his rhythm.

And as for the media's take on Ben's game against the Jets: they're just stupid. The Jets have an outstanding pass defense. they allowed opposing passers to complete only around 50% of their passes, they got a lot of picks and so forth.

Ben played the right game, given the context of each possession. The Steelers' first TD drive was mostly Mendenhall running like a possessed bull. But our second TD drive involved several critical throws by Big Ben. That drive put us up 17-0 and gave us a commanding lead.

Once it was 24-0, there was only one way we were going to lose the game: by turning it over on offense and giving up big plays on defense. Clearly, our game plan was to prevent either of those two occuring. We probably assumed we'd get at least another couple of field goals and that the Jets' offense wouldn't be as consistent with the dinks and dunks we were conceding by strategy. But we didn't, and they did.

so, Ben was extremely careful with the ball -- until the context changed, and we needed Ben to make some throws to ice the game. And then guess what? he made the throws. Against a GREAT defense.

And let's look at the great Peyton Manning vs. the same Jets, at home. One minute to play, 3rd-and-6, at the Jets' 32. If they move the ball, and the clock runs, the Jets have to burn another timeout, plus the colts move into better FG range. What happens? Incomplete pass. Manning didn't get it done. People forget because Vinatieri made the 50-yard FG, but if the Colts move the ball at all on that 3rd down, I bet they win the game. I'm not trying to bust on Manning over a single play, but so many people seem intent on comparing Ben to Manning and insisting that Manning is clearly better. I think it's less clear.
« Last Edit: Jan 26, 2011 at 09:11 by Manimal » Logged
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« Reply #13 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 11:52 »

All in all, it's a lot for the Steelers to overcome.  Green Bay is healthier than we are.  Their road to the big dance was much easier, in spite of the extra game.  I would have to say that the Packers are rightfully favored.

Dunno about that, P.  Green Bay has over a dozen players on IR.  I think at least 75% of them were starters.  And, don't forget they played an extra road game too.  Personally, if I had to pick, I'd take a bye, then two home games against the Ratties and Jests over three straight road games against Philly (QB'd by the media appointed Superman), Atlanta (who doesn't lose at home with Ryan at QB) and Chicago (intradivisional rivalry games always tough).

But there is one fact that cannot be measured but also cannot be discarded.  Everyone has doubted this team all season long.  They have questioned them on almost every level, and most of us have had more than our fair share of doubts.  I have picked against the Steelers a lot this season, as have many others. 

And they just keep proving so many people wrong. 

I can't get away from the fact that these guys just seem to keep finding a way to get it done, no matter what obstacle is thrown in front of them.  Maybe this is the game where it finally catches up to them, I don't know.  But this is just the kind of challenge that seems to bring out the best in this group. 

So here's to hope.  The odds may be against the Steelers, but this is a group that seems to like it that way.  And they like nothing better than proving the oddsmakers wrong.

Well put.

I'm sure it's been mentioned, but one other thing that works in their favor is familiarity.  Don't know how many Green Bay players have played in a SB with another team, but there can't be many.  And, as great as Rodgers has been, it's his first major rodeo.  He's bound to be a 'lil starstruck.  You could see it in his eyes when they interviewed him after the Chicago game.  "This is what I dreamed about as a kid...blah, blah, blah"  *teary eyed* 

It's still early, but to me, I still see this one being a defensive game.  Both defenses flex muscles early as the offenses try to get in gear/rhythm.  Always harder to get going on that side of the ball in a big game like this.  I'd expect Pittsburgh to have success earlier simply because they've been here and know what it takes to get it done.  Key will be keeping GB offense off balance as long as possible.  Gut tells me Pittsburgh jumps out to a lead (14-7 or 14-3), then has to fight to hold off the Pack in the second half.  Feels like it's going to be a 21-17 kinda game.
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« Reply #14 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 12:05 »


The Packers-Bears game gave me hope. With their offense doing absolutely nothing, the Bears were able to get a pretty good handle on that Packer offense. the Steelers will do even better, because I am absolutely confident that the Packers' running game will be stonewalled. If they have 20 yards rushing at the half, unless most of it came on one run, I'll be shocked. It's all going to be on Aaron Rodgers, and I think a few hits on him early and it will knock him off his rhythm.

Careful tho.  Again, they're divisional rivals.  Not counting that playoff game, they see each other twice a year.  They're a lot more familiar with each other than Pittsburgh will be with GB.  Both teams kinda know what to expect of each other.  Kinda along the same lines as Ravens/Steelers...except not as intense, obv.  *smirk*

And as for the media's take on Ben's game against the Jets: they're just stupid. The Jets have an outstanding pass defense. they allowed opposing passers to complete only around 50% of their passes, they got a lot of picks and so forth.

Ben played the right game, given the context of each possession. The Steelers' first TD drive was mostly Mendenhall running like a possessed bull. But our second TD drive involved several critical throws by Big Ben. That drive put us up 17-0 and gave us a commanding lead.

Once it was 24-0, there was only one way we were going to lose the game: by turning it over on offense and giving up big plays on defense. Clearly, our game plan was to prevent either of those two occuring. We probably assumed we'd get at least another couple of field goals and that the Jets' offense wouldn't be as consistent with the dinks and dunks we were conceding by strategy. But we didn't, and they did.

so, Ben was extremely careful with the ball -- until the context changed, and we needed Ben to make some throws to ice the game. And then guess what? he made the throws. Against a GREAT defense.

I guess it all depends on who you listen to because I've heard plenty of analysts praise Roethlisberger for his performance.  Several guys (Colin Cowherd, a major Seattle homer who makes it no secret that he doesn't like Pittsburgh) said more than once to ignore the QB rating.  It doesn't tell the story about how efficient he was and how, when necessary, he made the BIG play (e.g. running for 1st on 3rd and long; final pass to ice the game; etc.)  Peter King said as much too.  Even a handful of the local Jets radio guys echoed those sentiments.  Granted, they were also quick to point out how much worse it could've been for #7 if some of the defenders could've caught some of those errant, shoulda-been-an-INT passes, but they still give him his props.  Coupla the guys have even gone so far to say that there is no bigger big game QB (Brady included) in the game right now than Ben.  All the guy does is win.

There will always be detractors, regardless of accomplishments.  There's one way to shut most of 'em up tho and Pittsburgh is 60 minutes away from doing just that.
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« Reply #15 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 12:22 »

So torn on how this will go.

And I'm not alone.

What If Sports and Football Outsiders have it a virtual dead heat as well.

FO puts a Steelers victory at 50.6% to 49.4% for GB.

WiS has a 52.5% chance for a Steelers win to 47.5% for GB, with a projected score of 21-20.

Sagaran rates the teams 31.35 for Pitt, 31.18 for GB.

First OT game?
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« Reply #16 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 13:01 »

I'd love an OT game like the scenario somebody mentioned earlier - GB wins the toss and gets a FG, PIT drives for a TD.  BAM!
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« Reply #17 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 13:08 »

Quote
I'd love an OT game like the scenario somebody mentioned earlier - GB wins the toss and gets a FG, PIT drives for a TD.  BAM!

You'd love that? I'd probably fucking expire before it ended. Wondering if #6 could make a game tying FG. Seeing if BR can convert a 3rd and long from the 35. Honestly, it might kill me.
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« Reply #18 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 13:13 »

Quote
I'd love an OT game like the scenario somebody mentioned earlier - GB wins the toss and gets a FG, PIT drives for a TD.  BAM!

You'd love that? I'd probably fucking expire before it ended. Wondering if #6 could make a game tying FG. Seeing if BR can convert a 3rd and long from the 35. Honestly, it might kill me.

I hear ya, but think of the payoff man.  Twice the charge of the Holmes catch!
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« Reply #19 on: Jan 26, 2011 at 13:35 »

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I'd love an OT game like the scenario somebody mentioned earlier - GB wins the toss and gets a FG, PIT drives for a TD.  BAM!

You'd love that? I'd probably fucking expire before it ended. Wondering if #6 could make a game tying FG. Seeing if BR can convert a 3rd and long from the 35. Honestly, it might kill me.

I hear ya, but think of the payoff man.  Twice the charge of the Holmes catch!

I'm with Otis on this.  Fucking regular season games are almost enough to call 911, these playoff games have pretty near rendered me Otis's favorite pinata (Terry Schiavo), and an OT SB would mean, well, nice knowin' all you bastards.  Seriously.  Send your condolences and $37 to my favorite charity.
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