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Author Topic: McShay's early mock  (Read 2745 times)
aj_law
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« on: Feb 10, 2011 at 12:49 »

Has Pittsburgh taking OL...Benjamin Ijalana?

No fucking idea who this guy is and just based on the short paragraph that McShay wrote, seems like a bit of a reach in R1.

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #1 on: Feb 10, 2011 at 14:26 »

McShay is a withered teat.  He's spent so much time in tanning beds he's cooked his calabash.

I'd say the top OGs are Pouncey and Wisniewski.  Those are the only 2 I consider R1 picks, period.  Wisniewski may be better at OC, but I think he'd be a pretty good guard, too.

After that, most sites have Rodney Hudson, who I think is too small and don't like.  Maybe a pure ZBS scheme team can use him.  Pass.

Danny Watkins from Baylor is getting a lot of hype, but the dude is gonna be 27 this year, same as Willie Colon.  If I want to spend a R2 pick on a 27 year old guard, I'll just trade for one or get a FA.  Pass.

Frankly, if we're not getting Pouncey, I'd just as soon wait a couple of rounds.  Will Rackley out of Lehigh looks like a good R3 candidate, and he can play RT.

McShay sees us with all these OG/RT rhinos, the big, slow-footed beasts like Colon, Foster, Kemo, and he figures Well, they're just going to keep on bringing that kind of guy in!  Nice logic there.  Explains Pouncey last year, huh?  Ijalana's 320# and runs 5.34, which makes him bigger and slower than any of the other top-rated guards.

I'd rather go with guys like Pouncey: nimble and smart.  He's going to get stronger, but Kemo's not getting any damned smarter, and Foster's not getting any damned faster.
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« Reply #2 on: Feb 10, 2011 at 21:22 »

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Ijalana's 320# and runs 5.34, which makes him bigger and slower than any of the other top-rated guards.


So, can we just clone Kemo and forget the draft?
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #3 on: Feb 11, 2011 at 10:01 »

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Ijalana's 320# and runs 5.34, which makes him bigger and slower than any of the other top-rated guards.


So, can we just clone Kemo and forget the draft?

I've seen writeups of the guy saying he's got fast feet and he moves well, etc. etc., but 5.34 doesn't back that up.  And Nova's LOC ain't exactly the AFCN.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #4 on: Feb 11, 2011 at 10:12 »

An early draft consensus board, including McShay...

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2011 NFL Draft Consensus Big Board


I thought it would be interesting to combine some of the prominent 2011 NFL Draft Big Boards to form one consensus big board.

Below are the average big board position of the top prospects in the 2011 NFL Draft. I looked at four different big boards: Mel Kiper (ESPN), Todd McShay (ESPN), Rob Rang (CBS) and Scott Wright's (DraftCountdown.com). I will also add Mike Mayock's big board when he releases it.

Updated Feb. 11


1. Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU: 2.5
High: 1 (Rang); Low: 4 (Kiper)


2. Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn: 2.5
High: 1 (Kiper); Low: 5 (Wright)


3. A.J. Green, WR, Georgia: 3.0
High: 1 (Wright); Low: 4 (Multi)


4. Da'Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson: 3.25
High: 1 (McShay); Low: 7 (Wright)


5. Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama: 5.25
High: 4 (Wright); Low: 7 (McShay)


6. Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina: 6.25
High: 3 (Wright); Low: 9 (McShay)


7. Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska: 7
High: 6 (Multi); Low: 8 (Multi)


8. Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M: 7.25
High: 5 (McShay); Low: 9 (Wright)


9. Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri: 8.5
High: 6 (McShay); Low: 10 (Wright)


10. Julio Jones, WR, Alabama: 10.75
High: 8 (Wright); Low: 13 (McShay)


11. Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri: 13.25  
High: 11 (Multi); Low: 16 (McShay)


12. Nate Solder, OT, Colorado: 14.75  
High: 10 (Kiper); Low: 19 (Rang)


13. Cameron Jordan, DE, California: 16.25  
High: 13 (Rang); Low: 20 (Wright)


14. Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa: 16.25  
High: 13 (Wright); Low: 20 (Kiper)


15. Cam Newton, QB, Auburn: 16.25  
High: 13 (Kiper); Low: 28 (McShay)


16. Akeem Ayers, OLB, UCLA: 17.75  
High: 11 (Kiper); Low: 26 (Rang)


17. Tyron Smith, OT, USC: 18.25  
High: 14 (Multi); Low: 26 (Wright)


18. Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama: 18.5
High: 16 (Rang); Low: 21 (Wright)


19. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue: 19.25  
High: 16 (Kiper); Low: 24 (McShay)


20. Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College: 19.5
High: 12 (Rang); Low: 25 (McShay)


21. J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin: 22
High: 21 (Kiper); Low: 23 (McShay)


22. Jake Locker, QB, Washington: 24
High: 12 (Wright); Low: Unranked (Kiper)


23. Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois: 24.25
High: 11 (McShay); Low: Unranked (Kiper)


24. Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin: 24.25
High: 17 (McShay); Low: Unranked (Wright)


25. Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado: 26.5
High: 10 (McShay); Low: Unranked (Multi)


26. Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State: 27.75
High: 21 (Rang); Low: Unranked (Multi)


27. Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple: 27.75  
High: 22 (McShay); Low: Unranked (Multi)


28. Brandon Harris, CB, Miami: 28.25  
High: 23 (Wright); Low: Unranked (Multi)


29. Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State: 28.75
High: 25 (Wright); Low: Unranked (Kiper)


30. Mikel LeShoure, RB, Illinois: 29.25
High: 18 (Rang); Low: Unranked (Multi)


31. Mike Pouncey, G, Florida: 30
High: 21 (McShay); Low: Unranked (Multi)


32. Justin Houston, DE/OLB, Georgia: 30.25
High: 27 (McShay); Low: Unranked (Multi)


33. Rahim Moore, S, UCLA: 30.5
High: 25 (Kiper); Low: Unranked (Multi)


34. Torrey Smith, WR, Maryland: 30.75
High: 24 (Kiper); Low: Unranked (Multi)


35. Kyle Rudolph, TE, Notre Dame: 31
High: 27 (Wright); Low: Unranked (Multi)
« Last Edit: Feb 11, 2011 at 18:11 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #5 on: Feb 11, 2011 at 16:57 »

So on average, that puts Pouncey right in our wheelhouse.  But only takes one team to take the McShat point of view...
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #6 on: Feb 11, 2011 at 18:17 »

So on average, that puts Pouncey right in our wheelhouse.  But only takes one team to take the McShat point of view...

Right.

I modified to have it numbered 1-35, instead of just the "averages."  As noted before, plenty of teams (Phi, Chi, Bal) would love Pouncey and draft before us.  IMO, 1.23 (Phi) is the critical spot to swing to if you want to be sure.

My previous draft target, Tyron Smith, appears to be snaking his way up the boards past us.  Other OTs, Castonzo, Carimi, and Sherrod, fall closer.  All worth a look.  Not a dominant class of OTs, but R1 is solid.  Solid but not necessarily "woo hoo, we locked up a franchise LT" solid.  Much more analysis required.  OTs seem to be a very hit or miss prop in the draft, with injury and transition issues.  Recent targets of my mock draftery have been sidelined and thus un-gradeable.

Jimmy Smith, CB, is my 1a or 1b to Pouncey.  A beast.  If Ike and Nnamdi had a love child, sort of average them out.  I think he goes up, way up, post combine.  Brandon Harris, CB, also in the zone, but I like Smith, JMO.  But lots of early targets. 

More later.
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msdmnr2002
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« Reply #7 on: Feb 11, 2011 at 19:41 »

Quote
IMO, 1.23 (Phi) is the critical spot to swing to if you want to be sure.



Based on 2010 draft values, to move up to 22 from 31 is a difference of 180 points, or our 3rd,4th, and 6th.  Hefty price IMO, and assumes Indy willing to trade down.  Maybe, depending on our comps, but still...

Someone do a jedi mind trick on Goddell when he reads the Philly pick.  Then we can wait to 25 to jump the Ravens and it only costs us a 3rd.  Much more palatable.


Chart here:  http://www.sportznutz.com/nfl/draft/draft_point_value_chart.htm
« Last Edit: Feb 11, 2011 at 19:46 by msdmnr2002 » Logged
LambertsFrontTeeth
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« Reply #8 on: Feb 14, 2011 at 18:34 »

This discussion makes me nervous of picking guard except for the unlikely event that Wisniewski or Pouncey fall to us.

Is there any chance of getting a stud DB at 1.31? Even a safety would be nice, if not a reach like OL appears it would be.

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Y2Joyce
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« Reply #9 on: Feb 14, 2011 at 21:19 »

What's the knock on Cameron Heyward? I hate college football anymore but hard to imagine he's not a top 10 pro-fit. Kinda shocked to keep seeing him rated low.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #10 on: Feb 15, 2011 at 08:35 »

What's the knock on Cameron Heyward? I hate college football anymore but hard to imagine he's not a top 10 pro-fit. Kinda shocked to keep seeing him rated low.

Quote
Cameron Heyward Scouting Report

Strengths:
Prototypical size for 5-technique
Has length with strong musculature
Strong at point of attack
Sets the edge in the run game
Heavy hands
Gets terrific arm extension to control linemen
Flashes dominance
Shows ability to take on double teams
Tends to stay low to ground
Good instincts; sniffs plays out and disrupts
Tons of experience at multiple positions on DL (DT, DE, 5-tech)
Strong work ethic
Nice initial pop
Powerful




Weaknesses:
Highly inconsistent and can take some games off (not plays - whole games)
Doesn't always play as big as he is
Soft
Motor runs hot and cold
Not a fluid athlete; a little stiff
Average speed
Lacks a pass rush repertoire
Doesn't make much of an impact rushing the quarterback
Below average production

Summary: I don't think a player's stock has fallen on my board over the summer more than Heyward's. I went into the summer expecting to see a first-round pick on tape, and instead I now see a second-rounder. He gets dominated by inferior competition and should be more dominant on a more consistent basis when you factor in his size, strength and talent.

Heyward's best fit by far at the next level is the 5-technique position (3-4 DE), and I just don't see him being an impact pass rusher at 4-3 left defensive end. Heyward needs to step up in his senior year if he wants to be a top 25 pick. As I mentioned previously, Heyward is starting the 2011 season with a second-round grade on my board.

Player Comparison: Kenyon Coleman. Coleman is a strong player against the run for the Browns, but he's a little inconsistent and doesn't offer much in terms of a pass rush.

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #11 on: Feb 15, 2011 at 08:39 »

More on Heyward, from NFLDS.  He's on the radar, but I've been so much driven by (IMO) glaring need (DB, OL) that I've discounted BPA when really that ignores the FO modus.

Quote
Name: Cameron Heyward (+) Coming off elbow surgery, 01/11
Compares to: Marcus Spears (Dal/2005/Rd 1)
College: Ohio State     Number: 97
Height: 6-5   Weight: 288
Position: DE  Pos2: DT  Class/Draft Year: Sr/2011
40 Low: 4.85  40 Time: 4.92   40 High: 5.08

Projected Round: 1-2      Stock:
Rated number 7 out of 183 DE's     30 / 2707 TOTAL


Overview

  After showing potential in the first two years in Columbus, Heyward, the son of late NFL running back Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, began making a name for himself with a breakout 2009 season. Scouts weren't overly impressed with his play throughout most of his senior year, but coaches named him first-team all-conference and his strong performance in the team's Sugar Bowl win over Arkansas underlined his potential.

The former top-10 recruit from Georgia played every game in his four-year career, contributing immediately as a true freshman in 2007 (33 tackles, 10 for loss, 2.5 sacks, three passes defended, eight starts in 13 games) because of injuries along the defensive line. He started every game as a sophomore, making 36 tackles, 4.5 for loss and three sacks, then earned second-team All-Big Ten honors in his breakout junior year (46 tackles, 10 for loss, 6.5 sacks). His numbers decreased in 2010 (48, 13 for loss, 3.5 sacks).

Heyward was scheduled to move inside in 2010, but the team's depth inside allowed him to anchor the edge as a starter -- though he lines up at every spot on the line except nose tackle, depending on the team's alignment. That versatility comes from his above-average strength, size, athleticism and effort and allows scouts to look past his inconsistent play and project him as a first-round talent.

 Analysis

  Pass rush: Though not a true outside pass-rush threat, he will pressure the quarterback no matter where he lines up. Lines up on either end, as well as at the five-technique and uses quickness off the snap and excellent length to split double-teams, get inside of linemen when man-up, or push back guards into the pocket. Agile enough to be effective on twists from the outside. Running backs and tight ends are no match against Heyward in pass protection. Tough one-on-one matchup for guards inside due to his lateral quickness, hustle and club move. Corrals and punishes quarterbacks in the backfield, closing quickly and exploding into the tackle. Inconsistent disengaging from blocks; better left tackles can stand him up and latch on with impunity. Can be pushed back with an initial punch but keeps coming to provide a strong secondary rush. Not a great threat to turn the corner from the edge. Forces tackle up the field and can spin inside to prevent scrambles or pressure quarterbacks stepping up into the pocket. Has the length to affect passing lanes when unable to reach the passer but could get his hands up more often.

Run defense: Strong against the run whether lining up against guards or tackles. Crashes down to close gaps. Can spin off of blocks when runners cut back against the grain. Crashes down on inside runs, using length to get into a play. Good punch to knock his man back, attacks the ball when it is in his area. Maintains edge discipline to prevent bootleg plays on his side of the field. His height can be used against him -- he fails to get low on occasion and loses leverage against stronger guards and double teams. Susceptible to cut blocks, though he is athletic enough to recover and get back into the play. Too strong for tight ends to handle one-on-one and uses leverage and hands to blow through edge blocks. Only adequate backfield awareness, will be sucked in on misdirection and lacks great change-of-direction agility.

Explosion: Excellent quickness off the snap, splits double teams with ease and provides a rare pop into his blocker's pads to knock him back. Will be first man off the ball when pinning his ears back on the rush. Very difficult for slower linemen to match his combination of strength and explosiveness, makes beating them look easy.

Strength: Flashes great upper-body and hand strength, dominating most college linemen with leverage and burst, but does not consistently overwhelm better players. Does not have exceptional muscle definition in his arms. Plays tall inside and lacks a great anchor to maintain his ground against NFL-caliber double-team blocking.

Tackling: Solid tackler; can be explosive and always gives good effort. Leans when closing on the ball to ensure contact and his long arms allow him to wrap consistently. Good hustle downfield on screens. Also follows plays down the line and can chase to the opposite sideline. Best when attacking plays in front of him. Though he can redirect well for his height and size, he doesn't change direction easily and lacks the immediate burst to play on the edge in the NFL.

Intangibles: He has a great attitude, work ethic and immense talent. Well-liked by his teammates and coaches, he has fun playing the game. Hustles without wearing down much during the game. Returned for his senior season because he enjoyed college and wanted to win a national championship. Father, the late Craig "Ironhead" Heyward, was a star running back in college and the NFL. Stepfather is Cory Blackwell, a star basketball player for the Wisconsin Badgers in the 1980s who played one season for the NBA's Seattle Sonics.

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Y2Joyce
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« Reply #12 on: Feb 15, 2011 at 13:24 »

Thanks, Fin.

So he's underproductive, lazy, has limited positional flexibility, compares to bums like Marcus Spears and Kenyon Coleman, just had elbow surgery and isn't at a need position for the Steelers?

Smokescreen.

Quote
I've been so much driven by (IMO) glaring need (DB, OL) that I've discounted BPA when really that ignores the FO modus.

It'd be nice to find another stud OL this year. Not gonna get my hopes up drafting so late though. Thank Christ they nailed that Pouncey pick. Flozell's performance was damn near miraculous based on what common thought would've projected for him. Surely still a need spot.

Ike Taylor had his best season here. He's still going to show flaws but I was proud of his showing last season. Even if he is brought back, he's getting up there in age and I'm not thrilled with the depth behind him. McFadden is terribly inconsistent. Gay is a solid blitzer and closes fast on the ball but gets lost all the time. If the guy has time to make a move on him, he's gonna beat him. Despite having Lady Gaga on my ipod and my copious amount of shoes I am just not (and have never been!) a big Gay guy. And Madison is worse than he is. Special teamer only. Crezdon Butler and Keenan Lewis, for whatever reason, couldn't beat Madison out. Maybe they're just slow learners. Maybe it was a numbers game with the gameday actives and they needed Madison to dress due to STs. Whatever the reason these guys stayed buried and we lost the Super Bowl party because our DBs made Jordy Nelson look like Jerry Rice. Throw the bums out.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #13 on: Feb 15, 2011 at 14:46 »

Thanks, Fin.

So he's underproductive, lazy, has limited positional flexibility, compares to bums like Marcus Spears and Kenyon Coleman, just had elbow surgery and isn't at a need position for the Steelers?

Smokescreen.

Quote
I've been so much driven by (IMO) glaring need (DB, OL) that I've discounted BPA when really that ignores the FO modus.

It'd be nice to find another stud OL this year. Not gonna get my hopes up drafting so late though. Thank Christ they nailed that Pouncey pick. Flozell's performance was damn near miraculous based on what common thought would've projected for him. Surely still a need spot.

Ike Taylor had his best season here. He's still going to show flaws but I was proud of his showing last season. Even if he is brought back, he's getting up there in age and I'm not thrilled with the depth behind him. McFadden is terribly inconsistent. Gay is a solid blitzer and closes fast on the ball but gets lost all the time. If the guy has time to make a move on him, he's gonna beat him. Despite having Lady Gaga on my ipod and my copious amount of shoes I am just not (and have never been!) a big Gay guy. And Madison is worse than he is. Special teamer only. Crezdon Butler and Keenan Lewis, for whatever reason, couldn't beat Madison out. Maybe they're just slow learners. Maybe it was a numbers game with the gameday actives and they needed Madison to dress due to STs. Whatever the reason these guys stayed buried and we lost the Super Bowl party because our DBs made Jordy Nelson look like Jerry Rice. Throw the bums out.

That's the shit, in a nutshell.
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aj_law
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« Reply #14 on: Apr 05, 2011 at 11:43 »

About the only thing I've contributed to the draft discussion this year is regurgitating what others have produced.  

Following that trend, here's McShay's latest creation (about 3 weeks late) and here's Kiper's most recent prognostication (also, about 4 weeks late).

Entirely possible that these were mentioned/covered in some of the other draft threads that I might've missed.

FWIW, both guys have Pittsburgh taking a safe, unspectacular and equally unimpressive IOL.  Again, haven't been keeping a close eye this year, but neither of those guys seems worth a R1 pick.  And, if things played out the way McShay predicts, I'd be pretty pissed if they passed on Jimmy Smith in lieu of a "versatile" IOL.
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« Reply #15 on: Apr 05, 2011 at 15:14 »

No Insider; what were the picks?
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« Reply #16 on: Apr 06, 2011 at 08:40 »

WTF??  Weird.  I don't have Insider either, but their full mocks were available when I looked.

Kiper had them taking Watkins.  McShay had them taking...some versatile dude from Miami...

*quickly checks list of draft prospects*

Orlando Franklin?
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« Reply #17 on: Apr 06, 2011 at 09:02 »

Oh yeah, I ragged on that McShay pick earlier.  Watkins is a solid player, but not a solid value (age); he would buck the Tomlin paradigm badly.

I think McShay is high.  Seriously. 
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