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Author Topic: 2011 Steelers offensive formations  (Read 435 times)
Finnegans Wake
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« on: Sep 29, 2011 at 10:39 »

Courtesy of Steeler Depot.

My notes:

*Steelers use all RB/TE/WR permutations except 0 RB 3 TE 2 WR.  Per the article, "if a tight end was not down on the end of the line of scrimmage, he was deemed a wide receiver in the formation."  I believe what the author is saying is that if the TE was lined up not in the backfield (i.e., blocking back/FB) and not just outside the OT, but rather lined up farther out in the usual spots for WRs, then they were counted as WRs.  But what about if you had TEs clustered outside the tackle in a bunch formation?  They would then be eligible (on the LOS) so long as the WR lined up back from the LOS to avoid an illegal formation.  In that case, you could have the one missing formation come into play, with 3 TE and 2 WR, basically a 5-wide set with Miller, Johnson, and Saunders as receivers.  That may not be the best set of receivers if you're putting 5 on the field, but you could certainly cause some confusion. 

You put speed threats outside (two of Wallace, Sanders, and Brown) with the idea of drawing single coverage if the safeties come up.  So the safeties play halves, and let's say the defense rushes 4, leaving 3 LB, one per TE.  Jive up a little pre-snap motion and have the 3 TE cluster to the right pre-snap, and if the ROLB (on the left side of the offense) doesn't adjust, he's blitzing and you have 3 on 2 with the TEs, and you can just have one guy pick the LOLB and hit the hot read in the flat, between the LOLB and the LCB.  If the ROLB does come over, you can still run all kinds of crazy crosses, picks, outs, etc. 

Just seems like a formation that would make opposing defenses go "huh?!"
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #1 on: Sep 29, 2011 at 10:52 »

Anyway, that would be a rarity.

More notes:

*Over 50% of all offensive plays (54.82%) come out of 3 formations:  1 RB 0 TE 4 WR, 1 RB 1 TE 3 WR, and 0 RB 0 TE 5 WR. 
*Over 70% of all offensive plays (70.56%) come out of 5 formations: the previous 3 plus 2 RB 1 TE 2 WR, and 2 RB 2 TE 1 WR.
*3+ WR formations clearly indicate passing (71.09% of the time), but using those multiple wideouts to catch defenses napping against the run produces mixed results:
   -10 rushes out of 1 RB 0 TE 4 WR resulted in 2.8 YPC.
   -13 rushes out of 1 RB 1 TE 3 WR resulted in 2.8 YPC.
   -1 rush out of 0 RB 0 TE 5 WR resulted in 7.0 YPC.
   -0 rushes attempted out of 0 RB 1 TE 4 WR.
   -2 rushes out of 2 RB 0 TE 3 WR resulted in net 0.0 YPC (but 1 TD).
Rushing out of 3-wide sets to keep defenses honest does not seem to be effective, by and large.  The WR in motion carrying the ball for 7 yards is a n=1 sample, so relatively insignificant statistically.
*Success in larger carry sample size, as measured by YPC, comes from 2 RB 1 TE 2 WR (10 carries at 6.5 YPC), 1 RB 2 TE 2 WR (4 carries 5.8 YPC), and 3 RB 1 TE 1 WR (3 carries 5.3 YPC).  3 RB 0 TE 2 WR resulted fair YPC (3 carries at 4.3 YPC).

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aj_law
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« Reply #2 on: Sep 29, 2011 at 11:05 »

Courtesy of Steeler Depot.


 um

I'll save you the reading time.



You do know you have to hover your cursor over the Steelers Depot words and then click there to get the link?  Or am I missing the nature of your jape?
« Last Edit: Sep 29, 2011 at 11:15 by Finnegans Wake » Logged

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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #3 on: Sep 29, 2011 at 11:06 »

*Most commonly used rushing formations:
   -15 rushes out of 2 RB 2 TE 1 WR, 1.6 YPC.  Fail.
   -13 rushes out of 1 RB 1 TE 3 WR, 2.8 YPC.  Fail.
   -10 rushes out of 1 RB 0 TE 4 WR, 2.8 YPC.  Fail.
   -10 rushes out of 2 RB 1 TE 2 WR, 6.5 YPC.
*The 2 RB 1 TE 2 WR formation accounts for 8.12% of all plays.  In addition to 6.5 YPC, it tends to succeed as a passing formation, with 83% completion, a 92.36 passer rating, although a meager 6.2 YPA.
*The 0 RB 1 TE 4 WR set has been run 11 times without ever sending a WR in motion to run the ball.
*Most effective passing formations are:
   -1 RB 0 TE 4 WR, 67% completion, 10.9 YPA, 100.27 passer rating.  This is the most often utilized formation, run 43 times, or 21.83% of total.
   -1 RB 1 TE  3 WR, 75% completion, 8.5 YPA, 81.6 passer rating.  This is the second most utilized formation, run 38 times, or 19.29% of total.
   -2 RB 1 TE 2 WR, 83% completion, 6.2 YPA, 92.36 passer rating.  As noted before, this succeeds as both a running and passing formation, but has only been run 16 times, or 8.12% of total.
   -1 RB 2 TE 2 WR, 78% completion, 17.7 YPA, 155.79 passer rating.  The best formation for passing productivity, this is also the formation that yield 5.8 YPC (on 4 carries), as noted above.  This has only been used 15 times, or 7.61% of total.
   -3 RB 1 TE 1 WR, 100% completion, 12.0 YPA, 116.67 passer rating.  This has only been used as a pass play 1 time, and only 4 times overall.  It also succeeds as a running play at 5.3 YPC, but thethe 4 times used is only 2.03% of the total playcalling.
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« Reply #4 on: Sep 29, 2011 at 11:14 »

*Least effective passing formations:
   -0 RB 1 TE 4 WR, 44% completion, 4.4 YPA, 57.64 passer rating.  Fail.
   -2 RB 0 TE 3 WR, 57% completion, 6.9 YPA, 78.27 passer rating.  Fail.
   -1 RB 3 TE 1 WR, 50% completion, 1.5 YPA, 56.25 passer rating.  Fail.
While these account for only 18 attempts, they are all abysmally failures.  The first set has never featured a rush, the second set has a 0.0 YPC, and the third set has a 1.3 YPC, so fail on all accounts.
*Moderate success in passing:  0 RB 0 TE 5 WR, 48% completion, 6.3 YPA, but 80.06 passer rating.  However, it should be noted that 5-wide is usually 3rd-and-long, so also has resulted in 2 INTs to 1 TD, 3 sacks, and 2 scrambles.  Even using 5-wide outside of 3&L, defenses can send the blitz.
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jonzr
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« Reply #5 on: Sep 29, 2011 at 12:51 »

Quote
-1 RB 2 TE 2 WR, 78% completion, 17.7 YPA, 155.79 passer rating.  The best formation for passing productivity, this is also the formation that yield 5.8 YPC (on 4 carries), as noted above.  This has only been used 15 times, or 7.61% of total.

The most effective formation has been used less than 10% of the time.  Figures.  And the best rushing formation for barely 20% of the rushes.  Maybe their rarity has something to do with effectiveness or maybe Arians is ape shit crazy.  Your pick.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #6 on: Sep 29, 2011 at 13:08 »

Quote
-1 RB 2 TE 2 WR, 78% completion, 17.7 YPA, 155.79 passer rating.  The best formation for passing productivity, this is also the formation that yield 5.8 YPC (on 4 carries), as noted above.  This has only been used 15 times, or 7.61% of total.

The most effective formation has been used less than 10% of the time.  Figures.  And the best rushing formation for barely 20% of the rushes.  Maybe their rarity has something to do with effectiveness or maybe Arians is ape shit crazy.  Your pick.

On the 1 RB 2 TE 2 WR, it's worth noting that we run 26.67% of the time, pass 60.00% of the time... and scramble 13.33% of the time (2 scrambles, 4 rushes, etc.).  So, teams see it primarily as a pass set, and take the chance to chase after Ben, which they do all the damned time any way.  So, odds of success are currently 7.5 : 1, but Arians either is scared by those odds (?), doesn't see the risk-to-reward that we see, or only uses this formation in particular down-and-distance situations.  Meh.  Methinks he needs to add it in some more. 

You want to establish the run against the Texans?  Show this formation on, say, 2nd-and-8, after another brilliant run up the gut is stuffed.  Defense smells pass to recoup the long D&D yards, but that opens it up for the HB.  Even if it only follows the formation averages, you have 3rd-and-2 and your YPC on the drive has risen from 2.0 to 4.0.  So, confound expectation again, run a 2 RB 1 TE 2 WR set, which is a running formation 62.5% of the time.  But as a pass set, it gains an average 7.4 yards and succeeds 83% of the time.  First down.
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