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Author Topic: Week #4 Picks  (Read 347 times)
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« on: Sep 30, 2011 at 14:41 »

Finally finished on the positive side for the week.  Problem is I've dug myself a pretty sizeable hole to get out of for the season.  A 6-0 week or two would go a long way towards getting me back into the fray.  Baby steps, tho.  Shooting for a 4-2 or 5-1 week.  I don't feel very confident about a lot of my picks; rolling with a lot of road teams this week.

Overall = 8-14-2
Last Week = 4-1-1

Lions (+2) @ Cowboys - Cowboys are a mess on both sides of the ball with injuries abound.  Lucky to win last week against the Skins.  Lions defense is gonna feast on Romo.  Plus, Detroit hasn't lost ATS yet this year.  Think they win this one outright.

Saints (-6.5) @ Jaguars - I see an early double digit lead and the Saints never look back.  Gabbert will struggle when they're forced to abandon the run and air it out.  Feels like a 31-13, 27-10 kinda blow out, but I am a little leery.  Saints have a tendency to play down to their opponent.  As long as I'm giving less than a TD, I'll go with the dreaded road favorite here.

Panthers (+6.5) @ Bears - Honestly, I can't tell you exactly why I like the Panthers here.  To me, it just felt like too high a number.  I kinda feel like the Bears are gonna bounce back and get the win following two losses to two tough teams in the Saints and Packers, but I also see Cuntler overlooking Carolina and looking ahead to next week's intradivisional matchup with the Lions.  I like Carolina to at least keep it close if not get the win late.  Cutler gonna Cutler...eventually.  24-20~ish.

Steelers (+3.5) @ Texans - Taking the contrarian viewpoint here.  Everybody and their mother is fellating the Texans and I have yet to hear an "expert" make a case for Pittsburgh to come away with a win in this one.  While the Texan defense is OK, I don't see them being able to put the kind of pressure on #7 that Freeney/Mathis did last week.  It's entirely possible that I'm underestimating them, but I think Pittsburgh's offense bounces back in a big way and gets on track against that group.  Ironically, I'm more worried about how the defense will fare against the Texans offense that gets Arian Foster back.  Feels like a semi-shootout, but I couldn't bring myself to take the over here.

Falcons (-4.5) @ Seahawks - Tavaris Jackson.  Tavaris.  Motherfucking.  Jackson.  That team averages 10 points per.  Even with the hike up to Canada, I see Atlanta fattening up against a terrible Seattle squad.  They don't want to go down 1-3 in the standings; especially after losing that close one to Tampa last week.

Giants @ Cardinals (+1.5) - Um, letdown game, anyone?  It's a tarp!  After that huge performance against Philly last week, I think the Giants ease off a bit in this West Coast matchup.  Plus, New York is fighting a lot of injuries and their secondary is gonna get lit up by an Arizona offense that hasn't really started clicking yet.  The Giants D coming to the dessert is just what they needed to kick start this group.  Really, the only thing that has me a little concerned is New York's road record ATS.  Over the last three seasons, they're around 70%.  With all the emotion that went into last week though, I still maintain that a perfect storm is a brewin' here.
« Last Edit: Sep 30, 2011 at 14:43 by aj_law » Logged
Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #1 on: Sep 30, 2011 at 15:58 »

We agree on all except that Giants tarp game.  That's a sick level of agreement.

Bad news for you, given the unprecedented level of suckage thus far in my picks ATS.

Out of my mind on Saturday night...
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