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Author Topic: Week #5 picks  (Read 789 times)
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« on: Oct 07, 2012 at 10:59 »

Season Record = 12-8-0
Last Week = 4-1-0

Another nice week?  Somebody pinch me.  Is this real life?  Where's my wallet?  Feels good to get further in the black.  Hoping to capitalize and ride the wave.

Week 5 feels strange.  I tend to look for value in underdogs first and unfortunately, I couldn't find much that I liked.  Really liked the Rams at home, but wasn't quick enough to document them as one of my picks so I can't count that game.  After that, there are 4 games with (+7) spreads or better and surprisingly, I like the favorite in all of them.  With the exception of the Texans/Jets game, it just seems like Vegas is trying to get people to take the dogs.  I'm not biting, tho.  Going with all favorites this week...:nervous:

As always, in no particular order:

Packers (-7) @ Colts - Read somewhere the other day (don't remember where, exactly...) that the Packers have averaged 30+ in dome games over the last however many seasons.  With a Colts team in a bit of disarray due to Pagano's leukemia diagnosis and Arians having to act as both OC AND HC (*smirk*), I think they have a hard time keeping up even though they're at home.  Even without Jennings, I expect Rodgers to sling it all over the place and come away with one of his better performances of the season.  Freeney and Mathis are back, but are those ankles really at 100%?  Tough injury to overcome for guys that rely on speed to get to the QB.  Packers have had problems protecting the QB, but I don't expect it to be as much of an issue this week.  Indy's only hope to keep this one close is turnovers.  Not buying it.  Taking Pack and giving points.

Eagles @ Steelers (-3.5) - A turnover prone team is facing a team coming off its bye that, oh BTW, gets two of their defensive stars back this week.  Expecting either a defensive score by Pittsburgh or a critical turnover deep in their own zone by the Eagles.  Philly is also coming off a tough intradivisional game against the Gints and now they've gotta travel to Pittsburgh where the Steelers happen to be 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.  Might look scary for Steeler fans, but I'm oddly confident.  Taking our boys and giving the 3.5...expecting this one to be 3 at gametime.

Seahawks @ Panthers (-3) - As great as Seattle looked at home against the Cowboys and Packers, they're just not the same team on the road.  Carolina is coming off a tough intradivisional loss to the Falcons that they should've won and now have put themselves into a "must win" situation this week.  They go as Newton goes though and we'll see if he can build on the strong play he had last week.  I just don't see this team falling to 1-4...wouldn't surprise me if this one ends up being a push, tho.  Taking the Panthers and giving the FG.

Chargers @ Saints (-3.5) - Yet another 3~ish point favorite that I like...*sigh*...usually spells doom, but I don't think so this week.  As I mentioned last week, the Chargers might be the 3-1 team that people are talking about the least; kinda strange, actually, considering they're usually a group that gets built up the most.  Anyway, next to the Saints, they're probably the most bummed about New Orleans losing that game to Green Bay last week...desperate team is desperate.  Desperate team is at home.  Desperate team is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games (should be noted that those two losses were their last two home games).  Another one that I expect will be (-3) at game time.  Going with home team to get its first win.

Texans (-8) @ Jets - This one looks like such an easy call that it becomes the one that I'm worried about the most.  Jets have been awful.  Texans have clearly been the best team in the league in the first quarter.  Jets are without their best defensive player and (arguably) their best offensive player.  Texans are essentially at full strength.  Jets QB situation is a mess.  Texans QB is playing very well and hasn't been asked to do much because the team has just been running over everybody.  Texans are undefeated ATS this year.  So, why are they just -8?  How is this one not double digits?  Smells fishy, really fishy, $20 crack whore fishy.  There's no way I'm going against that freight train again though.  Did it twice this year and not doing it again until forced to do so.  Taking the Texans and giving the points.  I'm just hoping the number doesn't climb by gametime.
« Last Edit: Oct 07, 2012 at 11:04 by aj_law » Logged
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