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Author Topic: Week #7 picks  (Read 322 times)
aj_law
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« on: Oct 21, 2012 at 09:53 »

Season Record = 15-15-0
Last Week = 2-3-0

Six weeks in and sitting at .500.  Could be worse.  Has been worse.  Coulda, shoulda been better though.  If it wasn't for Pirrip Livers and his gacking up a 24-0 (!!) halftime lead, last week woulda been a positive week.  Couple that with the Steelers collapse to the Titans and the Cowboys having the Ravens dead to rights on the road, but they "let 'em off the hook!" (Dennis Green ™), it ended up being a pretty shitty week for Steelers fans.  Apparently, Garrett's Head Coaching Manual is missing the Clock management chapter.  Not surprisingly, Belichick's is too, but that gets like zero press because his aura of genius doubles as an impenetrable teflon hoodie.

Anyway, here are my picks for the week:

Browns @ Colts (-2.5) - Browns have been showing signs of life and Weeden has actually played pretty well considering he has so little help on offense aside from Richardson; most of the Browns receivers graduated from the Ike Taylor School of Catching a Football.  However, as decent as they've played, the road has not been very favorable to them as they've averaged nearly a 10 point deficit in their 3 losses.  I see a similar result this week playing in Indy where the Colts play their best ball.  Taking the Colts and giving the points.

Packers @ Rams (+5.5) - Packers coming off big, statement win last week at Houston are traveling to St. Louis for their third consecutive road game.  Rams have quietly been one of the better teams ATS this year with a 5-1 record and they definitely appreciate the home cookin' as they're undefeated (3-0) at their place.  Pack has problems protecting Rodgers and the Rams can get very good pressure with their front four.  Additionally, Packers defense hasn't been able to stop much this year and it only gets worse for them this week losing guys like Henderson, Perry and possibly Shields due to injury.  What's that add up to?  Letdown by the Packers and easy cover for the Rams.  Packers usually score in droves in domes, but unfortunately for them, they can't stop anybody either.  Somewhat high scoring affair, but I like the Rams getting points at home.

Redskins @ Giants (O/U 51) - Think this one will be more a intradivisional slugfest than a shootout.  Going under.

Texans (-6.5) @ Ravens - Trying to remain objective with this one.  I've been parroting all year that the Ravens aren't as good as many believe...but they've still managed to get to 5-1.  No style points or poll rankings in the NFL.  5-1 is 5-1.  Still, they're not far removed from sitting right there with Pittsburgh at 2-3.  Cowboys gifted them a win last week; 9-6 laugher at KC; and a last second FG against the Pats.  All could've easily swung the other way.  Now, they've got no Webb, no Lewis, doubt they'll have Suggs, a banged up Reed against a team that was embarrassed on their turf last week by the Packers.  Texans WILL hand Ravens first home loss in forever.  Will they cover?  I think so.  Texans by a TD or more.

Saints (-2) @ Buccaneers - Last pick was a toss up between the Panthers/Boys and this one.  Newton's inconsistent play scared me this way.  Tampa is another team that's been great against the spread this year.    I think they're getting the Saints at the wrong time, though.  New Orleans is basically in must win mode in Week #7 and I just don't see them sliding to 1-5; just too much firepower.  Tampa hangs for awhile, but the Saints pull away late for double digit win.
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