Week #10 picks

[aj_law]

Season Record = 27-18-0
Last Week = 5-0 (!)

First and hopefully, not last, 5-0 week this year.  Remember, I didn't feel overly confident outside of the Broncos/Bengals game last week and not surprisingly, I had a good week.  This week is the polar opposite.  I like several of my plays a lot, which has me very, very, VERY concerned.  Consider that a warning.  Still, I gotta try to keep the good mojo going and just hope that it can override my tendencies.  No additional commentary this week.  Crazy late night.  Still recovering.  Getting old sucks, etc., etc., etc.

Here ya go:

Giants (-4) @ Bengals
Raiders (+7.5) @ Ravens
Bills/Patriots (Over 53.5)
Texans (+1) @ Bears
Chiefs @ Steelers (Under 41)

[Big Virgil]

I had the Colts to cover, -4 I think. Won
Broncos -4  Won
Patriots -11 (Lost)  those sons a bitches

Steelers -12  ?

[aj_law]

Was that a three team parlay?

I really like the under in tonights game.

:nervous:

[Big Virgil]

Ya.

I felt comfortable with Coltgs and Broncs.  Contemplated Vikes, Seahawks, and, believe it or not, the Bungels.  Should have gone with one of them,.  Should have known the Patriots would screw me.

Separately, I took Steelers to cover tonight (shudder).  It's BV's Against The Grain.  I also took Cassell not to throw a pick and the first score of the game to not be a TD.

Am still thinking about "first player to score a TD".  Was thinking Miller or Redman.  About 6 or 7 to 1.

[jonzr]

Now you're gonna have to try another parlay next week to make up for it.  Missed it by *that* much!

[aj_law]

Separately, I took Steelers to cover tonight (shudder).  It's BV's Against The Grain.  I also took Cassell not to throw a pick and the first score of the game to not be a TD.

My guess is that the game is either a low scoring shitfest (17-16) or Pittsburgh wins in blowout (30-6).  For your sake, I hope the latter.  Either way, the under is good.  Only way I think they hit the over is if Pittsburgh goes nuts like the Ravens did yesterday and covers most or all of it by themselves.

Am still thinking about "first player to score a TD".  Was thinking Miller or Redman.  About 6 or 7 to 1.

IMO, those are decent odds on solid choices.  What's Wallace?  Lower, I'd imagine.  With a shitty KC defense, wouldn't surprise me if they took a shot downfield with him and connected.  Or maybe go with an unexpected contributor...Manny Sanders?

[Big Virgil]

Wallace has higher odds (greater risk) than Miller/Redman.  Cotchery was 16 to 1.  Wallace was, mmmmm, maybe 10 or 12 to 1.

I would throw a buck on one of those, no prolem, but the min is $5.  Not crazy bout that.

Agree about being super low scoring or a score fest.  KC has the 3rd ranked rushing game or somtn like that, but they are averaging 4 TO's per game.  Without the TO's, they would be pretty decent I guess.  If Steelers don't get a couple turnovers, I can see this being a nail biter.

[aj_law]

Wallace has higher odds (greater risk) than Miller/Redman.  Cotchery was 16 to 1.  Wallace was, mmmmm, maybe 10 or 12 to 1.

I would throw a buck on one of those, no prolem, but the min is $5.  Not crazy bout that.

$5?  Not sure what you mean.  This is purely for entertainment purposes.

Interesting numbers there.  I would've assumed that Wallace's odds were around Miller's or lower, certainly better than Redman's.  Pretty sure he leads the team in TDs or he's damn close to it.  Pittsburgh doesn't exactly score a ton of rushing TDs.

Expected to see Wallace at 5/6 to 1; Miller at 6/7 to 1; Redman at 8/10 to 1; Roethlisberger maybe 12 to 1; and Sanders or Cotch somewhere in the teens.

Based on the numbers you're mentioning, I'd definitely go with Wallace or Miller.

Might have to check out gametime numbers for these props just for shits and giggles.

[Big Virgil]

Ya, that was a typo.  I meant that my buddy insisted on the gentlemans wager be U5 (5 units).  He didn't thin 1 unit was worth a friendly wager.

[msdmnr2002]

He didn't thin 1 unit was worth a friendly wager.

Friendly or not, and don't care how sure a thing it seems, I ain't betting my unit on anything.