Season Record = 30-20-0
Last Week = 3-2
Finished at 60% last week to move to...60% for the season. Not too shabby. Not a great number, but not terrible either. Firmly in the black and that's where I intend to stay. Hope to push that overall number closer to 65% (or better?) by season's end. Gotta be careful not to get too greedy.
The last four weeks have led the charge in getting me into the positive -- a 15-5 mark during that period. I've fallen into a pretty consistent pattern; good week, OK week, good week, OK week. The good weeks I've been somewhat ambivalent about my picks, with me feeling pretty strong about my selections during my OK weeks. Good news is that I'm due (*fingers crossed*) for a good week and coincidentally, I'm not overly confident about any of these choices. Uh, I guess that's a...good thing?
On to my picks, in no particular order:
Packers (-3.5) @ Lions - Packers are coming off a bye to face an intradivisional foe. Yeah, they're banged up, but they've been banged up for awhile now and that hasn't stopped them from rattling off 4 straight wins. I expect Rodgers to continue the success he's enjoyed against the Lions (6-1) and McCarthy to continue his winning ways following a bye (5-1). While the Lions have played better in the last two to three weeks, I still think their defense is very up and down. They show up against lesser opponents, but teams with winning records seem to get theirs in those matchups. Has all the makings of a shootout and truth be told, I did consider going with the over (52) in this one first, but rolling with the Pack just felt like better value. They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against Detroit. Hard to argue with those numbers.
Cardinals/Falcons (Under 44) - Falcons got a taste of a little humble pie last week losing their first to the Saints. Going undefeated isn't quite as easy as you thought it would be, eh? Now that they've got that first loss out of the way, they can get back to doing what they've been doing since Ryan was drafted, winning at home. See this one being on the low side though...23-10, maybe 27-10, something like that. Atlanta gets an early lead, gets bored and toys with the Cardinals for the rest of the game.
Jets @ Rams (-3.5) - One thing the Rams seem to be able to do, beat shitty teams at home. Luckily for them, they score another turd this week when the Jets roll in. Rams aren't great, but they're competent and they've got some quality talent on both sides of the ball. The Jets, OTOH, are a flat out mess. Ryan is on the hot seat with brewing turmoil for Gang Green. Gotta love it. All is well in the world. Another loss for NY and even an all access membership to feetinyoureye.com won't keep Rexy from losing it. "Taking the home team that's facing the Jets" might become a mantra for the rest of the '12 season.
Colts (+9.5) @ Patriots - Admittedly, this one has me kinda nervous. Bellychamp has a way of making life very difficult for young QBs. That's not the side of the ball I'm worried about, tho. I think Luck will find success against the Patriots defense. The question is will the Indy defense be able to keep it close? Close enough to cover? Yes. Close enough to win? Eh, dunno about that. 9 and a half is just too big a number. Really, it came down to two games and rookie QBs for me. Luck or Weeden. Weeden's been decent, but I'm going with Luck, even heads up against Mr. Tom Bundchen. Taking the points and hoping that it climbs to (+10) by gametime.
Ravens/Steelers (Over 40) - This one's gonna be higher scoring than everyone thinks. 24-23, 27-20, 24-20...winner? Whoever turns the ball over the least. Over has also been 9-3-1 the last 13 times these teams have faced each other and 7-1-1 the last 9 games they've squared off in Pittsburgh.