From he o' the Plastic Hair - Top 25

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1) Jarvis Jones AGE: 23 DOB: 10/13/89 HT: 6-3 WT: 241 POS: OLB
Tkl 85 Sack 14.5 Int 1
Jones should do well during this evaluation process because he has a wide range of skills. His performance and positional value reflect this ranking, because he combines explosiveness, discipline, relentless pass-rushing ability and great intangibles and effort. He profiles as a 3-4 OLB, but doesn't need to come off the field because he's also strong against the run and can really cover.

2) Damontre Moore AGE: 20 DOB: 9/11/92 HT: 6-4 WT: 248 POS: DE
Tkl 80 Sack 12.5 Int 0
NFL teams need players who can get to quarterbacks quickly, and Moore fits the bill. He's an athlete, but the production really jumps out. Consistent performer. Adjusted well to playing as a defensive end in a 4-3 scheme. Excels as a pass-rusher, able to dip hips, turn the corner and use quickness and length to beat tackles.

3) Luke Joeckel AGE: 21 DOB: 11/6/91 HT: 6-6 WT: 310 POS: OT
GP 12GS 12
Joeckel consistently neutralizes good pass-rushers. There's very little to not like. He has a ton of experience, starting on the left since his freshman season. He can really drive people in the run game, even if he gets questions on how nasty he is as a finisher. The feeling now is he's a safe bet to be the first OT taken.

4) Star Lotulelei AGE: 23 DOB: 12/20/89 HT: 6-4 WT: 325 POS: DT
Tkl 42 Sack 5.0 Int 0
The simple fact with Lotulelei is you can't block him with one guy. He's ready to be an impact NFL DT. He absorbs so much blocking help and frees up others, but he's not just a clogger, because he can show off a great burst and the ability to destroy plays. Has a great sense for disrupting the run game. Quick off the ball with great upper- and lower-body strength. Coaches rave about him.

5) Chance Warmack AGE: 21 DOB: 9/14/91 HT: 6-3 WT: 320 POS: OG
GP 14GS 14
Warmack was the best O-lineman on his team, which says a lot considering how stacked the Bama O-line was. He simply takes defenders where he wants them to go, utilizing great power and quickness at his size. A dominant run-blocker, Warmack isn't just massive, but also moves well, with initial power in tight spaces and the ability to seek out LBs on the second level.

6) Manti Te'o AGE: 21 DOB: 1/26/91 HT: 6-2 WT: 255 POS: LB
Tkl 113 Sack 1.5 Int 7
In talking to NFL evaluators and looking at this weird saga myself, there's basically no reason yet to change this evaluation. Te'o is almost certain to drop some simply on positional value, which matters more at this po Int than his date with Katie Couric. He has exceptional football instincts, a ton of experience and can both attack the backfield to make stops as well as get to the edges. Was second nationally in INTs, an impressive mark for a LB.

7) Alec Ogletree AGE: 21 DOB: 9/25/91 HT: 6-3 WT: 232 POS: LB
Tkl 111 Sack 3.0 Int 1 Could end up ahead of Te'o based on versatility and a high ceiling. Led Georgia in tackles by 13 even though he missed four games. Ogletree has great instincts and flies to the ball all over the field. Able to attack gaps against the run, stretches wide and moves well in coverage. Reads passers well. Draft process could be interesting.

8) Jonathan Cooper AGE: 23 DOB: 1/9/90 HT: 6-3 WT: 302 POS: G
GP 12GS 12
It's getting hard to find real flaws with these top guards. He's started since his redshirt freshman season, doesn't miss blocks, hits moving targets and has a great punch. Cooper is powerful and quick for his size and dictates matchups. Moves extremely well, particularly in tight spaces, allowing him to beat defenders to spots, move them to a side and get downfield.

9) Eric Fisher AGE: 22 DOB: 1/5/91 HT: 6-8 WT: 305 POS: OT
GP 12GS 12
Has shined early in the Senior Bowl evaluations. He uses that length really well. He gets in a wide base, uses his arms to absorb pass-rushers and simply doesn't allow guys to get around him often. He often can make it look easy in the MAC but also looked great when Central Michigan faced top competition; not a newcomer for scouts.

10) Sheldon Richardson AGE: 21 HT: 6-4 WT: 295 POS: DT
Tkl 75 Sack 4.0 Int 0
A nice start in Senior Bowl practices. Great awareness and highly versatile, he nearly led Mizzou in tackles as an interior lineman, which would've been pretty remarkable. Love his effort level and potential to fit in any scheme. He's got great burst, uses his hands well and gets off blocks quickly. He's a penetrator who plays physically and piles up tackles. Locates well.

11) Barkevious Mingo AGE: 22 DOB: 10/4/90 HT: 6-5 WT: 242 POS: DE
Tkl 33 Sack 4.0 Int 0
He may have to defend the tape a little, but he has that obvious, tantalizing talent. Mingo is so gifted athletically that he misses some "football skills" coaches want. He has survived without taking on a lot of blocks, for instance. Leverage was an issue all season, and there's a little boom-or-bust feel with him right now. Uses length and a great first step to turn the corner. High ceiling.

12) Bjoern Werner AGE: 22 DOB: 9/30/90 HT: 6-4 WT: 255 POS: DE
Tkl 42 Sack 13.0 Int 0
Good decision to enter the draft. Has great awareness, both as a pass-rusher and as a guy who defends the pass with his hands in the air. There's a little J.J. Watt in that trait, though comparing anybody to Watt is doing them a disservice in terms of ceiling. Werner finds a way to disrupt. Reads the game really well, eyes up, which isn't easy to do when you play so fast.

13) Dee Milliner AGE: 21 DOB: 9/14/91 HT: 6-1 WT: 199 POS: CB
Tkl 54 Sack 1.5 Int 2
A quick study; questions on his cover skills have largely been put to rest. He got better and better as the season progressed. Milliner's raw football skills are exceptional. His physical prowess is a step above that of other corners. He hits receivers and isn't shy in run support, but with that, he is fluid, reads the game well and can turn and run with wideouts. High floor.

14) Cordarrelle Patterson AGE: 21 DOB: 3/17/91 HT: 6-3 WT: 205 POS: WR
Rec 46 Yds 778 Avg 16.9 TD 5
Combine will be huge for him. Patterson could be the top WR available on draft day, but must perform well in workouts because of a small sample size against top competition. Great size and leaping ability, strong hands, with explosiveness as a runner with the ball in his hands. Can go up and get it.

15) Tyler Eifert AGE: 22 DOB: 9/8/90 HT: 6-6 WT: 251 POS: TE
Rec 50 Yds 685 Avg 13.7 TD 4
I think he made a wise decision to enter the draft. A decent bet to be the first TE off the board. Has pass-catching skills of a natural receiver and can be split out. Eifert is a former WR, catches the ball with ease and can stretch the seams, but he's not an exceptional blocker. Top TE in the class heading into the draft process.

16) Dion Jordan AGE: 22 DOB: 3/5/90 HT: 6-7 WT: 243 POS: DE
Tkl 44 Sack 5.0 Int 0 Hasn't participated at the Senior Bowl because of a shoulder. There's some projection left if you see Jordan as a guy who should bulk and move to 4-3 DE, but I think he's pretty good where he is. He went to Oregon with the possibility of playing either offense (TE) or defense (DE), but has emerged as an athletic, long pass-rusher who will get looks as either a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE.

17) Zach Ertz AGE: 22 DOB: 11/10/90 HT: 6-5 WT: 245 POS: TE
Rec 69 Yds 898 Avg 13.0 TD 6
The more you watch the more you like Ertz. Can really stretch the field up the seam, but has shown a really good ability to work the sidelines. He's a hands catcher; he goes out to get the ball, keeping defenders at bay. A willing blocker. Could be the second tight end taken if the draft were tomorrow, and might push Eifert.

18) Lane Johnson AGE: 22 DOB: 5/8/90 HT: 6-7 WT: 303 POS: OT
GP 13GS 11
He has really long arms, and can absorb rushers. He's pretty technically sound with his feet given a relative lack of experience on the O-line, and he plays relaxed as a pass-blocker. In terms of natural skills, he grades high, but he'll pick up some tricks as he gains more reps against better talent.

19) Johnathan Hankins AGE: 21 HT: 6-3 WT: 335 POS: DT
Tkl 55 Sack 1.0 Int 0
One likely first-rounder I thought could have come back and raised his value, but he'll stay in the first. Just 4.0 TFL in 2012 will lead to questions about his explosiveness and ability to penetrate, and Hankins isn't much of a pass-rusher. What he can do is eat up blockers, flow well down the line and and free up everyone around him.

20) John Jenkins AGE: 23 DOB: 7/11/89 HT: 6-3 WT: 358 POS: DT
Tkl 50 Sack 1.0 Int 0 People are surprised when they realize how big Jenkins is, because he moves pretty well. He's steady in terms of finding ways to impact the game because he's either eating up blocks or overwhelming a blocker one-on-one. He opens up space for LBs to attack and can occasionally push the pocket himself, even against double-teams.

21) Kenny Vaccaro AGE: 21 DOB: 2/15/91 HT: 6-1 WT: 218 POS: S
Tkl 96 Sack 0 Int 2
A good bet right now to be the first safety drafted. Vaccaro played well behind a struggling defense. Adept in coverage and against the run, he has the size to attack the line of scrimmage like an extra linebacker but can line up in coverage inside or out wide and hold his own. Makes good reads and big plays.

22) Sharrif Floyd AGE: 20 DOB: 5/28/92 HT: 6-3 WT: 303 POS: DT
Tkl 41 Sack 1.0 Int 0
Improved all season after a positional change. He started slowly after switching back from DT, but he still led the Gators' D in TFL, so he created problems for offenses. A star coming out of high school, Floyd has quickness for his size and a powerful lower half to drive blockers.

23) Kevin Minter AGE: 22 DOB: 12/3/90 HT: 6-2 WT: 245 POS: LB
Tkl 130 Sack 4.0 Int 1
A tackling machine, Minter plays like he'll be pulled off the field if he doesn't get to the ball first. He has great instincts, diagnoses well and attacks the line of scrimmage to stop the run. Offensive linemen have a tough time lining him up -- he slips blocks and makes plays.

24) Ezekiel Ansah AGE: 22 DOB: 5/29/89 HT: 6-6 WT: 272 POS: DE
Tkl 62 Sack 4.5 Int 1 A raw player with a track background, he got better and better this season. His draft value could be defined by whether teams think he can help immediately. He needs a lot of coaching, but has physical gifts that can't be coached. A potentially dynamic 4-3 DE pass-rusher.

25)  Sam Montgomery AGE: 22 DOB: 5/25/90 HT: 6-4 WT: 260 POS: DE
Tkl 37 Sack 8.0 Int 0
LSU's most effective DE in 2012 -- yes, better than Mingo -- he was productive but his ceiling probably isn't as high. I love his motor. He is a fit in almost any system, and his range of skills has improved with added bulk, which helps him against the run. Max-effort player who profiles better for a 4-3 scheme.

Finnegans Wake:
I always wait until Indy to complete my take on NTs, so that's an incomplete in my book.

Cookie Jarvis has stenosis, which is a concern.

Really think that 1-5, 12, 13, and possibly 24 will all be gone.

Te'o could easily fall to R2 after that Bama game, or at least that's what his GF told me...

Not a big fan of Mingo.  Who was the last big D-side player out of LSU who wasn't a secondary guy?

Pull up YouTube of Patterson against Georgia and tell me if that kid's not a game changer.  Guy's 6'3, runs like a motherfucker, speed, vision, you name it.  Fields kicks.  Needs some experience as a wideout, but then so did that Wallace kid.

If you like draft day trades, I think it's going to be a very interesting year.  There isn't that group of 5-6 must haves that would tempt a team to make a huge jump and trade the farm.  But I have a feeling there will be a lot of those little 2-4 position moves as teams see "their guy" get close while others still have a few choices on the board.Wouldn't surprise me to see a team in the 8-12 range make multiple small trade-downs to the 20s and stockpile a ton of 2s and 3s (and late 1s).

Finnegans Wake:
Quote from: msdmnr2002 on Jan 25, 2013 at 12:25

If you like draft day trades, I think it's going to be a very interesting year.  There isn't that group of 5-6 must haves that would tempt a team to make a huge jump and trade the farm.  But I have a feeling there will be a lot of those little 2-4 position moves as teams see "their guy" get close while others still have a few choices on the board.Wouldn't surprise me to see a team in the 8-12 range make multiple small trade-downs to the 20s and stockpile a ton of 2s and 3s (and late 1s).

There's some really solid talent at the top of this draft, but like you said, there are no Lucks or Griffins driving a hard push to the very top.  There's no strong, clear #1 WR or #1 RB: consult five different draft sites, and you will find no consensus top QB, WR, RB.

Teams are loathe to give up R2 picks:  you get great value in R2, guys who can play right off but don't kill the cap.

Finnegans Wake:
1) Jarvis Jones.  Very productive, widely seen as top 10 pick BUT some concerns over work ethic and stenosis.  Probably off by 1.17.
2) Damontre Moore.  Would be an OLB in 3-4, but probably better as a pass-rushing 4-3 end.  Might not have the sand in the pants to set the edge.  Also top 5, or top 10 at worst, likely off by 1.17. 
3) Luke Joekel.  Seems to be a top 5 lock.  Only negative is that he blocked for mobile QBs and the Steelers pocket won’t be that mobile.  Also likely off by 1.17.
4) Star Lotulelei.  Looks like a top 10 pick, and has all the traits of a proto 3-4 NT.  Likely off by 1.17.
5) Chance Warmack.  The guy’s a Mack truck, just a brutal blocker.  Hard to see him falling to 17, but OGs do tend to be undervalued.  Most fans would cry foul over taking yet another OL so early, but by BPA and the chance to build a truly dominant line puts Warmack very high on my wish list.  It would be nice to have a run game again, and value at other positions can be found in later rounds.
6) Manti Te'o.  I like Te’o’s on-field smarts and leadership, but have a difficult time erasing the Bama game from memory, where he looked slow and lost.  Does not compare well to last year’s Kuechly, whom I was very high on.  The off-field stuff makes me question where his head is at now and whether this issue will linger interminably, and I suspect he will run a slow 40 at Indy.  Don’t want to say DND, but I don’t think Te’o is quite the first round prospect everyone says he is.
7) Alec Ogletree.  Has good energy on-field, but might be better suited to the 4-3.  Doesn’t seem filled out enough to play either ILB or OLB for us.  I have his value as a late R1, early R2 guy.
8 )Jonathan Cooper. A solid prospect, if a step down from Warmack.  He, Kentucky’s Larry Warford, and Bama’s OG/C Barret Jones all seem like solid R2 selections.  1.8 seems a bit high.
9) Eric Fisher.  Seemed to see his stock improve when two OTs decided not to declare (Matthews, Lewan).  LOC is a question, probably making him a R1/R2 cusp guy for me, but a lot of people are really high on him.  I have Oklahoma’s Lane Johnson rated higher, but Fisher certainly could develop into the better OT.  Needs more study.
10) Sheldon Richardson.  More of a 4-3 DT.  Would possibly be a 3-4 DE, but highly doubtful we draft another DE.
11) Barkevious Mingo.  I’m not a big fan.  LSU front 7 guys have been a disappointment for forever, and seems to be a one-trick pony.  Can he set the edge?  Betting his lifts at Indy disappoint.
12) Bjoern Werner. Still learning the game, and likely a top 10 pick.  Another DE who might struggle to transition to setting the edge in a 3-4 as OLB.  I do like him better than Mingo, and would have to consider him if he fell.
13) Dee Milliner.  Proto CB, off by 1.17 guaranteed.  Solid all around.
14) Cordarrelle Patterson.  Just go watch the YouTube of Patterson against Georgia, and remember how many UGA defenders will be getting drafted early this year.  The guy flat out flies.  He picks his way through defenders with the instincts of a top return man, finds holes like a seasoned RB, and can make the tough catch in traffic.  He is raw as a WR, and like Wallace before him will need to learn the whole route tree to become a complete receiver.  A rare combination of size and speed and a guy who can single-handedly flip the field.  However, does not seem to fit the Steelers MO for R1 guys, unfortunately.  I like this kid a lot, but I doubt Colbert values him as highly.
15) Tyler Eifert.  Really solid TE, I see some Heath in this kid’s play, and he can go up against corners on outs.  But hard to see us going for a TE R1, and I’d put his value as late R1.  Not a bad choice late in the round, but not the game-changing playmaker we need.
16) Dion Jordan.  Very long frame, and a guy who could be a solid OLB in the 3-4 with some coaching and added muscle.  Gets upfield in a hurry, but can overshoot the QB.  Can turn and cover receivers as well as any LB, but can get washed out of the running game.  I like but don’t love his game.  I’d probably rate him a R1/R2 guy because he’d need time to fit in our system.
17) Zach Ertz.  See comments for Eifert.  A similar prospect IMO.
18) Lane Johnson.  As I said, he’d be my second highest rated OT, and would be a consideration at 1.17 because I think he can be a pro LT.  Showed steady improvement, will be very good with a year of S&C.  Better foot speed than any of our alleged LTs.  Better LOC than Fisher.
19) Johnathan Hankins.  Hankins, like Lotulelei and Jenkins, is a proto 3-4 NT.  I rely on lift data for NTs more heavily than almost any other metric at any other position, with 30+ reps at 225 minimum and 35+ optimal.  All three of these guys would be considerations to rebuild the DL.  Again, not a popular choice with fans, but I don’t see many holes in their game.  BPA value is solid.
20) John Jenkins.  See comments for Hankins.  Jenkins may have more issues with weight if he’s not careful.
21) Kenny Vaccaro.  One of my top prospects, can play either S spot, although not a big turnover guy.  Always around the action, nice size and speed combo, and the need is certainly there for someone who can back up Polamalu and Clark.  Looks like a good, solid pick.
22) Sharrif Floyd.  See comments for Richardson.
23) Kevin Minter.  Flies to the ball, faster than Te’o.  Has good size, but doesn’t punish running backs.  Right now I have a R2 value on him but want to see more tape.
24) Ezekiel Ansah.  Taller and leaner than our current OLBs, and gets comparisons to JPP.  Not sure about that, but this guy seems to do everything, and has played OLB and every DL position at BYU.  Really seems to be taking to coaching and shows a ton of energy.  Again, not the typical Steelers R1 type of guy, more upside than proven collegiate, but I think he’d be a great fit, tough to stop out of Harrison’s OLB slot, able to drop into coverage, and able to slip up and play end to confuse the OL.  Very versatile, almost to the fr7 what Polamalu is to the secondary.  May go top 10.  If not, I’m very high on him.
25)  Sam Montgomery.  More 4-3 DE than 3-4 OLB.  Again, not big on LSU fr7 guys.  Some questions about work ethic.  Second rounder, if that.

So, from this list, and among those likely to still be there at 1.17:

1.   Warmack
2.   Patterson
3.   Johnson
4.   Ansah
5.   Vaccaro
6.   Hankins
7.   Jenkins
8.   Jordan
Although that order is certainly subject to change.


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