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Author Topic: Week 6 - Oct. 13 - Pittsburgh @ NY Jets  (Read 3481 times)
otismalibu
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« on: Oct 08, 2013 at 11:28 »

How does the Falcons O-line compare to the Steelers O-line?

This may be Ben's injury week.
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aj_law
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« Reply #1 on: Oct 08, 2013 at 11:36 »

LOL @ Steelers being a road favorite to anybody (OK, @Jax might be a pick 'em) right now.

They haven't covered ATS yet this year.  This is their week, right?  Uhhhh, right??
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #2 on: Oct 08, 2013 at 14:31 »

We know Smoky Adams was being benched for Beachum or Levi, but Tomlin has also demoted Ziggy and is going to give Heyward a shot at LDE.

We'll see with the carousel of bobos on the OL, but I always liked Heyward and thought Hood was an odd pick for the position, maybe more of a 4-3 DT.  In fact, I'd consider using Hood in rotations:  first, try a 40 front once in a damned while, with Heyward-Hood-Mac-Keisel; second, try Hood at NT and Mac at RDE to spell Keisel - I think Hood would do better anchoring against the run, and Mac would get better penetration off the edge, so this might be a 3rd down rotation.
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« Reply #3 on: Oct 08, 2013 at 17:05 »

... first, try a 40 front once in a damned while ...

Right!?
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« Reply #4 on: Oct 09, 2013 at 13:21 »

Over/under on Big Ben turnovers (interception or fumble):  2.5

I'm taking the over.

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« Reply #5 on: Oct 09, 2013 at 14:12 »

Over/under on Big Ben turnovers (interception or fumble):  2.5

I'm taking the over.

That's the big thing this weekend.

I expect them to continue to play like shit, but the shooting themselves in the foot has to stop. 

Smith's a rook.  Make him make the mistakes.  Don't help him out by turning it over.

NY also has a pretty good, young front seven.  #7 can't take forever back there to make a decision.  Exploit the weak part of their defense (secondary).

Historically, ****ie usually makes rookie QB's heads spin.  Not so sure he'll be able to accomplish that feat with this group.  Gotta get pressure on Smith, somehow, someway...
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« Reply #6 on: Oct 09, 2013 at 14:44 »

Not Brown...not Adams...Beachum to start at LT.

Hopefully BR's flak jacket still fits.  He gonna need it.
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« Reply #7 on: Oct 10, 2013 at 10:09 »

Not Brown...not Adams...Beachum to start at LT.

Hopefully BR's flak jacket still fits.  He gonna need it.


We'll see.  I remember thinking Beachum wasn't NFL material when we took him, but he acquitted himself well (or well enough) in spot duty.  I think he's a solid backup at both OG spots and maybe RT.  LT is a whole other creature, though.  From an old Finny draft guide on OTs:

Quote
Generally, OTs need to be 6’5” or taller, with shorter OTs plugged in at OG.  Marvel Smith was a shade under 6’5”, for a point of comparison.  I’ve seen collegiate tackles listed at 6’3” on the NFLDS OT lists, and I’ve moved them to my OG lists.  For LT, you cannot be slow and be effective.  Period.  That means the much-despised Indy combine 40 time actually makes a difference in how quickly a big guy on the edge can kick out.  My arbitrary numbers are 5.20 as potentially competent LT, and under 5.10 for possible elite LT.  The player must obviously have skills – the ability to use his hands properly, to bend and use leverage, to understand blocking schemes – but players who can’t trot the 40 in under 5.20 seconds start to suggest RT only. 


At the time, I believe I just casually noticed the correlation between 40 and LT success, but let's look and see if that's true.  I'd say the following are the best 10 LTs in the league (when healthy):

1. Duane Brown - 5.03-5.07 40 time; a little shorter than my guidelines at 6'4", but as noted height is not the prime driver.
2. Joe Staley - 4.79; 6'6"
3. Russel Okung - 5.18; 6'5"
4. Joe Thomas - 4.92; 6'7"
5. Ryan Clady - 5.18; 6'6"
6. Andrew Whitworth - 5.16; 6'7"
7. Michael Roos - 5.15-5.30; 6'7"
8. Eugene Monroe - 5.18' 6'5"
9. Trent Williams - 4.88; 6'5"
10. Nate Solder - 5.05; 6'8"

Summary:  10/10 LTs clocked times <5.20 (combine or school workout); 9/10 meet frame requirement of 6'5" or taller.  I'll add another, which I had previously never used because tall guys with long arms aren't going to rock the bench press:  20+ reps at 225#.  I noticed that of these LTs, none repped more than 30 (Thomas got to 28), but 9/10 repped more than 20 (Roos came in at 19).

So, let's compare.

Kelvin Beachum - 5.44; 6'2"; 19 reps.  Small and weak are really sideshows to how slow Beachum is.  IMO, destines to fail.  Of course, I thought the same of him at OG, but as they say, apples to oranges, especially kicking out to the blind side.
Mike Adams - 5.40; 6'7"; 19 reps.  Hey, he's tall.  I think my comments on Adams at draft time were along the lines of slow, weak, smokes pot, so pass.  Getting off the weed didn't suddenly make Mikey fast though.
Marcus Gilbert - 5.41; 6'6"; 30 reps.  Third of three without foot speed.  Has some weight room strength, not sure I've seen it translate to the field.  Seems to be RT-only.

WRT to LT, destined to fail.

Oh wait, we also have:

Levi Brown - 5.40; 6'6"; 31 reps.  Thus continuing our penchant for abysmally slow LTs.  Or, what the rest of the league refer to as RTs.  Workout numbers suggest he is essentially Marcus Gilbert, which is what game film suggests as well. 

Stocked to the gills with RTs, no LT anywhere to be found.  There are some great WR candidates in the top 10 of the 2014 draft, but I would suggest we consider LT.  For once.  FFS.  Just once.
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aj_law
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« Reply #8 on: Oct 10, 2013 at 11:17 »

Not Brown...not Adams...Beachum to start at LT.

Hopefully BR's flak jacket still fits.  He gonna need it.


We'll see.  I remember thinking Beachum wasn't NFL material when we took him, but he acquitted himself well (or well enough) in spot duty.  I think he's a solid backup at both OG spots and maybe RT.  LT is a whole other creature, though.  From an old Finny draft guide on OTs:

Quote
Generally, OTs need to be 6’5” or taller, with shorter OTs plugged in at OG.  Marvel Smith was a shade under 6’5”, for a point of comparison.  I’ve seen collegiate tackles listed at 6’3” on the NFLDS OT lists, and I’ve moved them to my OG lists.  For LT, you cannot be slow and be effective.  Period.  That means the much-despised Indy combine 40 time actually makes a difference in how quickly a big guy on the edge can kick out.  My arbitrary numbers are 5.20 as potentially competent LT, and under 5.10 for possible elite LT.  The player must obviously have skills – the ability to use his hands properly, to bend and use leverage, to understand blocking schemes – but players who can’t trot the 40 in under 5.20 seconds start to suggest RT only. 


At the time, I believe I just casually noticed the correlation between 40 and LT success, but let's look and see if that's true.  I'd say the following are the best 10 LTs in the league (when healthy):

1. Duane Brown - 5.03-5.07 40 time; a little shorter than my guidelines at 6'4", but as noted height is not the prime driver.
2. Joe Staley - 4.79; 6'6"
3. Russel Okung - 5.18; 6'5"
4. Joe Thomas - 4.92; 6'7"
5. Ryan Clady - 5.18; 6'6"
6. Andrew Whitworth - 5.16; 6'7"
7. Michael Roos - 5.15-5.30; 6'7"
8. Eugene Monroe - 5.18' 6'5"
9. Trent Williams - 4.88; 6'5"
10. Nate Solder - 5.05; 6'8"

Summary:  10/10 LTs clocked times <5.20 (combine or school workout); 9/10 meet frame requirement of 6'5" or taller.  I'll add another, which I had previously never used because tall guys with long arms aren't going to rock the bench press:  20+ reps at 225#.  I noticed that of these LTs, none repped more than 30 (Thomas got to 28), but 9/10 repped more than 20 (Roos came in at 19).

So, let's compare.

Kelvin Beachum - 5.44; 6'2"; 19 reps.  Small and weak are really sideshows to how slow Beachum is.  IMO, destines to fail.  Of course, I thought the same of him at OG, but as they say, apples to oranges, especially kicking out to the blind side.
Mike Adams - 5.40; 6'7"; 19 reps.  Hey, he's tall.  I think my comments on Adams at draft time were along the lines of slow, weak, smokes pot, so pass.  Getting off the weed didn't suddenly make Mikey fast though.
Marcus Gilbert - 5.41; 6'6"; 30 reps.  Third of three without foot speed.  Has some weight room strength, not sure I've seen it translate to the field.  Seems to be RT-only.

WRT to LT, destined to fail.

Oh wait, we also have:

Levi Brown - 5.40; 6'6"; 31 reps.  Thus continuing our penchant for abysmally slow LTs.  Or, what the rest of the league refer to as RTs.  Workout numbers suggest he is essentially Marcus Gilbert, which is what game film suggests as well. 

Stocked to the gills with RTs, no LT anywhere to be found.  There are some great WR candidates in the top 10 of the 2014 draft, but I would suggest we consider LT.  For once.  FFS.  Just once.


Somewhere, Penso's cursor is hovering over the "delete" button.

Remember those offseason rumors about the Steelers "being in the mix" for Jake Long?  Yeah, the Rams probably overpaid for a guy that's underperformed where he was drafted, but he'd be light years better than anybody they've currently got.  Cap issues aside, obv.
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Finnegans Wake
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« Reply #9 on: Oct 10, 2013 at 13:09 »

Penso's gonna be thrilled to delete my post over in the Darft section then.

Seriously, if some M-F cube cowboy can figure out that there's a DIRECT FUCKING CORRELATION BETWEEN BEING SLOW AND FLUNKING AT LT, why can't Colbert?  It would almost seem to be common sense, no?  We're not finding the fucking Higgs boson, people, just some big uglies who can shuffle their feet and bring a little nasty to the table.

Have a feeling we won't be able to contain the Jets' TE Cumberland, Stephen Hill looks like a guy who could throw trouble our way, and I can see the defense making hash of our OL (again), especially Wilkerson.  For all the negatives over Geno pre-draft, the kid is gaining confidence and has an arm.

Gonna have to go Jets on this one, 26-23.
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